curious

Long time ago now but yep.

FAQs To find out more, check out the FAQs below: What channels is Trackside on Freeview? Channels 23 and 24 Is Freeview available everywhere? Yes, through Freeview’s streaming platform (freeviewnz.tv) but you will require an aerial for UHF reception. UHF Freeview is unavailable in Bay of Plenty (outside of Tauranga and Rotorua), Marlborough, Northland and the West Coast of the South Island. What channels are available? Trackside 1 and 2. They are exact simulcasts of what is shown on Sky TV, Sky Go, and TAB.co.nz Will Trackside Premier be on Freeview? Trackside Premier will remain an exclusive product on Sky’s services. What's changed with the graphics? We’ve made a complete change to the look and feel for Trackside 1, 2 and Premier. These are the first major changes to Trackside’s look and feel since 2014. Markets will usually be in favouritism order, except with greyhound racing, where the market will be displayed in box order. What were the key priorities for this change? We wanted to provide a fresh look and feel for Trackside viewers. Alongside this, we want to be able to showcase data which isn’t available in the current graphics, which you will see rolling out in the coming weeks. The way our customers bet has changed a lot in 10 years, and we’ve changed the graphics to reflect that. That is why the main markets you will see will display fixed and tote prices for win bets, rather than including place prices, which are freely available through our betting channels like the TAB app and tab.co.nz. Will we see more of the horses? Yes! We want to show racing in all its glory. Rather than squeezing the vision in behind graphics, the new look has more space for live racing vision to be displayed. Will our programmes be continued? A key part of the Trackside revamp is the continuation of old but revamped favourites such as The Box Seat and Weigh In as well as new programmes which will debut in the new racing season from August onwards.

Have you checked it out?

Maybe, but the various announcements have emphasised a trackside focus on NZ racing and stories.

I'd certainly be surprised if they didn't come home with a mil+. I remember David poring over the turf digest in our school days. Lifetime passion and great to see the little guys' dreams come true. Best of luck to them.

So, Freda is an old woman, just not the one Hesi is referring to?

It's not a game imo and irrelevant to the topic of discussion. Mardi has previously posted evidence here and/or elsewhere, including stating in this thread, that he pays betfair premium fees which only apply to about .5 % of accounts which make a persistent profit. I wish I could say that I had to pay them too.

Looks like the claims weren't quite enough to overcome the non-claiming one? And the 3 topweights ran 1,2,3.

That's your assumption. Could it not be that the connections think the rider is the best choice for the horse? Knows it well? Rides it often in trackwork? How do you know it is because they think the weight allowance gives the horse more chance?

Riders have .5kg leeway when they weigh out anyway without being declared overweight. You don't know that as a punter if they are, and if weight is that significant, how do you account for that variance in your assessment?

Point me to a post where you got that impression.

Certainly not by me. I don't know where you thought I meant otherwise.

Oh, and it's not all of them and probably not even a lot of them.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that weight doesn't have an effect. You don't need a science degree to know that if you run 100m, then run it again carrying a sack of spuds, which time will be the fastest. The question from a punting perspective though is does a 2-5kg weight difference have an effect on time. The data in the above article says it doesn't.

The Importance of Weight in Horse Racing Weight is the basis around which both handicapping and traditional form study is based. The well-established principle is that 3lbs = 1 length, or put another way if a horse loses to a rival by a length, if the rival is raised by 3lbs in the handicap and the horses subsequently meet again, that the result should be a dead heat. But is this actually true and can you gain an edge by better understanding the effect of weight on a racehorses performance. In my own form study I actually totally ignore weight carried, undoubtedly there must be some effect of weight but in my opinion its impact is to minimal to materially affect the result. The reason horses stop winning when they go up in the handicap is in my opinion due to them having to go up in grade and race against better horses, not due to the weight they carry, A telling statistic is that in UK racing top weights win 27% of races, which is far more than they should statistically if weight had the effect it is meant to. To put this into perspective. Horses are large animals, the average weight of a thoroughbred is around 550 kg's. Two kilograms(5 lbs) represents 0.36% of the horses body weight. Let's translate this illustration to human terms. Two 90kg athletes compete with athlete A narrowly victorious over athlete B over 200m. Same conditions 1 week later this time athlete A must carry 0.36% of his body weight strapped to his back as a penalty. This equates to 330 grams or about the size of a family block of chocolate. Do you think that the 330 gram penalty will stop a powerful finely tuned athlete from repeating the win? Or will a 2kg weight turn around impede the winning chances of a 550 kg thoroughbred? So that’s my view is there any analysis to back this up, or disprove my theory? If we look at what percentage who are carrying more weight from their last race won compared with horses that carried less weight and won. Then this gives us the following stats: Horses that carried more weight and won 11.5% Horses that carried less weight and won 7.8% This appears to show that extra weight carried is not a negative, however this data obviously includes lots of other factors which might be affecting the win %. So another, probably better way is to look at a horses performance as an individual, rather than if it won or lost. A way of doing this is to look at the change in speed figure produced when weight was either added or taken away. Below are some analysis taken from US Dirt racing. Test Results - Dirt Sprint - Carrying 5 lbs MORE weight since last start Speed figure remained about the SAME from previous = 28% Speed figure IMPROVED from the previous start = 34% Speed figure DECLINED from the previous start = 38% Test Results - Dirt Sprint - Carrying 5 lbs LESS weight since last start Speed figure remained about the SAME from previous = 26% Speed figure IMPROVED from the previous start = 34% Speed figure DECLINED from the previous start = 37% Test Results - Dirt middle distance race - Carrying 4 lbs MORE weight since last start Speed figure remained about the SAME from previous = 30% Speed figure IMPROVED from the previous start = 32% Speed figure DECLINED from the previous start = 38% Test Results - Dirt middle distance race - Carrying 4 lbs LESS weight since last start Speed figure remained about the SAME from previous = 23% Speed figure IMPROVED from the previous start = 37% Speed figure DECLINED from the previous start = 40% The improvement or decline of speed figures is virtually identical regardless of whether weight is being added or taken away. This shows to me that my initial thoughts that the effect of weight carried by a racehorse is exaggerated are correct, and I will continue to ignore weight when evaluating a horse race.

75 - 90% of horses have signs of EIPH after a race. I'm sure if they thought it was at a level that had affected her performance or was likely to this week, she wouldn't be running.

Not that she has a heart condition. Not sure where that idea came from. Surely would have had to have a vet cert to race on Saturday if that were the case.

Great find Pete. And I suspect any differences are due to the small sample size and general variability due to pace and jockey/trainer ideas about any pace bias the track might have.

The days of real and effective handicaps around Phar Lap's time. Here's the weight spread for the 1929 Telegraph Topweight Paganelli 9.10 Bottom weight Consent 7.2 That's 36lbs = 16kgs Funny how some punters are still using the same theories on weight in handicaps that they did then.

No it's not. It's a way to give better horses more chance than the lesser ones by not having enough weight spread to give them an equal chance as handicap racing is supposed to do.

Why don't you run some of the same queries that mardi has reported and thereby verify (or not) his findings?

No argument. They do and they do.

Yes. That conversation has been a bit of good craic but clearly some people can't be helped, especially when they think their opinion is more valuable and useful than solid data. So, as you suggest, I'm happy to walk away and keep taking their money. Someone has to fund the bookies and the racing industry after all. Totally agree with Freda's comments though and a diligent punter could possibly take advantage of that by finding horses that have generally recorded their best performances from outside gates. In fact, we had one of those a couple of years ago and I hung out Wednesday mornings of race week hoping for an outside draw to be posted. That horse won his best race from gate 18 at Riccarton over 1600m paying the highest tote win dividend of the season. Freda's point was also made in the article I posted there where the author says, despite the data, "Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions."

The Members’ Council as at 31 July 2023, comprised: Chair Jeff McCall (Southern Region), Deputy Chair Geoff Vazey (Northern Region), John Elstob (Northern Region), Eliot Cooper (Central Districts Region), Sam Trotter (Central Districts Region), Simon Williamson (Southern Region), Tony Pike (New Zealand Trainers’ Association and New Zealand Jockeys’ Association), John Thompson (New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association), and Bernard Hickey (New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Owners’ Federation).

He is appointed as a director by the Members' Council but not as chair. He is elected as chair by the directors.