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LookingForValue

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LookingForValue last won the day on October 20

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  1. 1st of 9 HAST 01Oct94 800m Firm 2YO $12,352 ($7,720) P Mercer 55kg Barrier 6 2nd Quality Gold 53kg, 0:43.40, 4L1st of 9 TREN 24Oct94 1000m Good WELLESLEY Listed $20,586 ($11,837) P Mercer 55kg Barrier 4 2nd Byzance Star 52.5kg, 3rd Straight Clip 55kg 0:56.96, 5L1st of 7 RICC 12Nov94 1000m Good WELCOME Listed $16,469 ($10,293) P Mercer 55kg Barrier 5 3rd Byzance Star 53kg 0:55.431st of 7 TE R 10Dec94 1000m Good FAIRVIEW Listed $20,586 ($13,381) P Mercer 55.5kg Barrier 2 2nd Seattle Gem 53kg 0:57.45, 3.5L1st of 8 ELLS 03Jan95 1200m Good ECLIPSE Group 3 $29,210 ($18,257) P Mercer 55.5kg Barrier 5 1:11.721st of 18 TREN 23Jan95 1200m Good MAGMILLION Listed $130,028 ($83,459) P Mercer 55kg Barrier 4 1:09.021st of 6 TREN 04Mar95 1200m Firm G3 WAKEFIELD $33,383 ($18,987) P Mercer 55kg Barrier 4 2nd Askari 55kg, 2nd Askari 55kg 1:07.38, 8L1st of 11 RAND 05Aug95 1000m Good3 San Domenico Stakes Group 2 $101,460 ($69,460) Brian York 55kg Barrier 3 2nd Strategic 55kg, 3rd Millrich 52.5kg 0:57.48 (600m 33.89), 0.5L1st of 9 RAND 19Aug95 1200m Good3 Up And Coming Stakes Group 3 $100,060 ($68,060) Brian York 54kg Barrier 7 2nd Flying Spur 54kg, 3rd Catalan Opening 54kg 1:09.08 (600m 34.31), 4L1st of 5 RAND 02Sep95 1200m Soft5 Roman Consul Stakes Group 3 $100,060 ($68,060) Brian York 55kg Barrier 4 2nd Octagonal 55kg, 3rd Donar 55kg 1:12.03 (600m 34.05), 1.8L1st of 9 FLEM 09Sep95 1200m Good3 Coolmore Stud Stakes Group 2 $251,000 ($163,500) Brian York 57kg Barrier 9 2nd Gold Ace 56kg, 3rd Strategic 57kg 1:08.20 (800m 43.90), 2L1st of 15 CAUL 23Sep95 1400m Good3 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Group 1 $203,000 ($133,000) Brian York 52.5kg Barrier 2 2nd Cut Up Rough 54.5kg, 3rd You Remember 54.5kg 1:22.30, 0.1L1st of 10 CAUL 14Oct95 1600m Good3 Caulfield Guineas Group 1 $501,500 ($326,500) Brian York 55.5kg Barrier 2 2nd Ravarda 55.5kg, 3rd Octagonal 55.5kg 1:36.70 (800m 47.70), 3L http://www.racerate.com/Our_Maizcay.htm
  2. Ballybrit by Wandering Eyes out of Banba by Resurgent. Inbred The Phoenix 3x3 through a daughter and a son. Sire of 113 foals, 75 runners, 37 winners incl. 2 stakes winners. Full brother to Avenger 6 wins-2 at 2-1000m to 1600m, Avondale S., L, 2d Manawatu Sires' Produce S., Gr.1, ARC Eclipse S., Gr.2. Sire.
  3. Ascona winning the Great Northern (1977) with the late Ken Browne on board on a bog track in 8:52.06. Ken was so breathless after the race, he couldn't dismount before finally being helped.
  4. I'm Fondu of these challenges
  5. LookingForValue

    Monday trivia

    My background knowledge seems to have improved since my second 5G Astra Zeneca jab.
  6. LookingForValue

    Monday trivia

    Taksan & Arwon 1978 Caulfield Cup. John Duggan and Ron Quinton
  7. Thought you might make an appearance Marty. I take no note of recorded class, weights, barrier draws etc. I agree that individual performance is the ultimate factor. Many take note of these factors, often when there is insufficient runs to make a determination as to it's possible performance. Your point 7 is valid. I'm hoping those that use these stats start to think about how they use these them. I like a horse with a couple of close up finishes on a wet track going off at value against a supposed wet tracker with 2 wins from 3 starts etc that everybody will be on and very likely under value. I have even backed horses that have no starts on wet tracks if I like them. I'm still working on determining individual performances and pace. Defining...refining...
  8. TOP 10 WET TRACK GUIDELINES 1. Don’t rely on wet track statistics to assess whether a horse is capable in wet ground. A Slow and Heavy track record of 2 – 0 – 1 may show that the horse has placed once on wet ground from two starts, but if the horse was beaten 8 lengths into 3rd in a lower class race than today then you should hardly feel confident it can produce it’s best on wet ground. Consider an alternative record of three – 0 – 0, which shows no wins or places from three starts on the wet. These stats suggest that the horse might not handle the wet, but deeper investigation may reveal that it finished fourth in two of those runs beaten less than two lengths in similar or better class than today’s race. If that was the case then it’s likely that the horse can perform on wet ground. The key point to keep in mind is that things are often not what they seem, so it pays to dig a little deeper and find out what lies behind the statistics. 2. Consider the class of the race when assessing a horse’s wet track performances. Early in their career, good horses can often still win on unsuitable ground purely because they have a significant class edge over the field. However when they get to their right class level they may not be as effective on that same surface and need something more suitable to perform at their absolute best (this applies to both wet and dry tracks.) This is another reason why wet track statistics can be misleading. Many horse build a good wet track record in classes well below their true ability and don’t in fact have the wet track advantage their record suggests when racing in stronger class. 3. If there is no clear evidence to say a horse is a risk on wet ground, then assume it will handle the conditions. This may seem a little controversial as our nature is to try and avoid uncertainty or unnecessary risk and horses that are not proven on wet ground certainly fits into that category. However, it’s important to recognise that successful betting is not about finding certainty in your bets, but about the chance of horses relative to how the market prices them. The truth is that horses racing on wet ground with either no previous starts or not previous wins / places on wet win just as often and have an identical overall betting return to horses with previous wet track success. The key point is: If you like a horse and the only query is a whether it will handle the wet, then you should still bet. 4. Weight does not become more significant on wet tracks. In general, weight is overrated as an important form factor and the same applies on wet tracks. Don’t get caught in the trap of penalising horses because they are carrying a big weight on Soft or Heavy ground. 5. Be careful about using wet track form to predict performance on a dry track. Some horses can suddenly show improvement when racing on a wet track and won’t necessarily carry that form forward to their next start back on the dry. That improvement could come about because of a preference for the surface, help from track bias and / or the opposition simply fail to handle it as well. Any of these factors make it unlikely the horse will perform as well back on dry so always looks for recent dry track form and take a balanced view. The opposite also applies if a horse performed a little below its recent best when racing on the wet and returns to the dry today. It could easily bounce back to its best form. 6. Do not promote a horse above its exposed ability because of a good wet track record. Great wet track form is one thing, but each horse still only has a given level of ability. Well exposed horses that don’t have the overall talent to win a race rarely win, even if they have a superior wet track record. 7. Barriers are of far less importance than usual on wet tracks. In many cases, it can be an advantage to draw and race wide on a wet track where the going is better. The market typically overvalues inside barriers, particularly on wet tracks so don’t shy away from betting your fancy just because it’s drawn wide. 8. Distance increases are no more or less significant on wet tracks. There’s a natural tendency to assume that a sharp distance increase from one run to the next combined with the difficulty of running on a wet track might make it tougher than usual for a horse to win. There is no evidence to support this. A study of races up to 2000m where fancied horses ($10 or less) were rising 150m or more in distance from their last start showed no difference in strike rate or profit when the subsequent run was on a wet track (Slow / Heavy) as opposed to a dry track (Fast / Dead). Distance changes are best assessed on a horse-by-horse basis independent of the prevailing track condition. 9. Don’t always assume that a poor run on the wet was caused by failure to handle the track condition. There may have been other explanations such as luck in running, an injury or the fact that the horse was generally in poor form and would not have been competitive even if the race was on suitable ground. 10. Breeding can often provide a clue to help sway your opinion one way or another. Some sires are known to produce horses that handle wet ground while others seem to produce horses that struggle in the wet. For example, when you analyse Hinchinbrook’s progeny that rated a genuine winning chance in the market up to $10, those on Soft / Heavy ground have a 14% SR and -38% POT. While those on Firm / Good have a 22.7% SR and -1.7% POT. There are numerous free web sites that show wet track sire statistics. Remember though that there are always exceptions to the rule and breeding alone will not guarantee performance. It’s purely one piece of information that could be useful, especially if you are uncertain about a horse on one or more factors. https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/wet-tracks/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=education&utm_content=hub
  9. Count Keruru won the Ormond Memorial Gold Cup over 2000m. His damline, broodmare sire Balloch and granddam sire Iliad were contirbutors to the 1600m-2000m distances or thereabouts.
  10. Des Harris rode Fury's Order around that time? Show Gate Bob Skelton?
  11. Is it the Port Nicholson Stakes 1974? Fury's Order 1st Showgate 2nd
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