Jump to content
The Race Place

barryb

Members
  • Content Count

    913
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

barryb last won the day on January 10

barryb had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

649 Excellent

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. barryb

    This is of concern

    You were right Hesi, this is beyond the understanding levels of some on here. Simple is still a struggle so let’s go to basic. 1) No, he is a very talented rider for sure, but better than anyone else I don’t think so. 2) Repeat answer 1 above. Please can you put up some information to support your side of the debate rather than just your opinion.
  2. barryb

    This is of concern

    I think it’s you whom is struggling to grasp this concept. I will make it simple as pie for you. if a horses market price (fixed closing price) is $2,00 then the horse has a theoretical 50% chance of winning the race. Now if Opie is winning 48% of the time on $2 shots and Allpress is winning 53% of the time on $2 rides then one of then is riding below market expectation and the other above. You apply the same principal across all rides to give you a market expectation. Now over any reasonable length of time this will give you an idea of a riders ability. I am not saying Op
  3. barryb

    This is of concern

    I certainly do, there might be 2-3 on here capable of even understanding it. Do I use it? No as said many times on here & other sites, I cannot quantify it & therefore its useless to me before the race.
  4. barryb

    This is of concern

    Not only about price value Hesi, these guys/gals over the last 2 yrs have consistently outridden the market assessed ability of the horse. IMO Lisa Allpress based on the stats is easily the most talented rider in NZ over the last 2 yrs. Her performance is exceptional & she is over 20% ahead of any other rider in riding above the horses ability (market assessed).
  5. barryb

    This is of concern

    In answer to the question about Jockeys from earlier here are the ones that are very postive expectation wise when they take a mount. Now just to stop all the dickhead posts before they happen, I am not saying that they would out do Opie in a tight G1 race etc, but overall they represent fantastic value when taking a mount and they consistently outride the market. In leading value order. Lisa Allpress (superior to all others by a wide margin) Kozzi Asano Craig Grylls Tina Comignaghi Ashvin Goindasamy Ryan Elliot/Johnathon Parkes
  6. barryb

    Site demeanour

    Certainly isn't when it comes to Hesi, other than by himself. Hahaha Sorry Hesi, I know you are trying to be serious here, but geez try not to adopt communist China with cutting intelligent strong debate, encourage the team to play the ball not the man & all should be good.
  7. Perfect Freda, you just got confirmation that you are saying the right things. With a response like that a raw nerve has been hit and you are keeping the bastards honest.
  8. barryb

    This is of concern

    No, expressing an opinion, the same as you did regarding Opie.
  9. barryb

    This is of concern

    No & I am not likely to either, Like Mardigras I don’t consider jockeys in my calculations as I cannot quantify them and the improvement or not they bring to individual runners. However the information I do have I use combined with a few other factors to bet Jockey Challenges and other areas which I am satisfied with.
  10. barryb

    This is of concern

    Mardi has put them up here a few times already, what I have is almost identical. Please can you put up the same, supporting that he is head and shoulders above the rest, not just an opinion.
  11. barryb

    This is of concern

    The stats suggest he is not.
  12. barryb

    This is of concern

    Its been answered by Mardi in a few subsequent posts. I was thinking like an owner, the stats tell me she is a damn good rider whom has a higher positive expectation that Bosson does. The discussion wasnt about Group 1 riders but rides in general. For you info I have found 6 riders who have a greater positive outcome when they are booked to ride than he does, is he the best rider in NZ? in a tight grp 1 finish then maybe, but as a general rule, far from it.
  13. barryb

    This is of concern

    you are missing the point mate, exactly like most do. its fucking regardless of where you ride, its what the market expectation is. The market expectation is Opie does better than he actually does, Tina exceeds market expectation. Thats it in a nutshell, Opie rides exceeds market expectation but not by as much as Tina, therefore for punting purposes she is the better bet. The stats dont lie mate, she rides well above her expectation on the price on offer, he rides below her, easy as that. ie: at $2 he should be getting 50% home, & hes gets about 52% home she gets 54% of
  14. barryb

    This is of concern

    I have learnt over many yrs in this game, what seems obvious and correct is often so far from reality when looked at from a different angle. After looking at this in much more detail tonight, I can assure you that the figures dont lie, Tina is as good if not better for your horse than Bosson, what appears to be reality is often a lie in this game. Think outside the square guys & you are well rewarded, do what the sheeple do & you will be left behind.
  15. barryb

    This is of concern

    Ha, just looked at this in more detail & yes my first thoughts were bang on. When taking into account market expectation, there is very little difference between Opie & Tina, his S/R is significantly higher but she performs slightly better on market expectation. Now the crucial thing as Mardi is alluding too, is that Tina is far less likely to have much of an impact on the SP & therefore she is by far the better rider to place on your horse. The ability level is almost identical & Tina gives the owners much greater value. Done deal.
×
×
  • Create New...