Hesi Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I see the connections don't know yet. Would she even stay 2400m. El Roca never raced past 1600m, but Zabeel/Eight Carat on the dam side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 No winners yet for El Roca at 1700+, only 12 runners though. I can certainly see her in contention in any NZ Oaks and winning a moderately run one this year. As long as Jennifer Eccles isn't there. But I'd doubt they go there, it seems an undue risk when she could target a G1 mile / 2000 in aus. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, Hesi said: I see the connections don't know yet. Would she even stay 2400m. El Roca never raced past 1600m, but Zabeel/Eight Carat on the dam side 19 hours ago, Hesi said: I see the connections don't know yet. Would she even stay 2400m. El Roca never raced past 1600m, but Zabeel/Eight Carat on the dam side Zabeel/Eight Carat via TL's damsire Columbia (a $1.6M yearling who never raced and was hardly super-successful at stud) I don't see anything encouraging in TL's first three generations that would make me think this filly will stay 2400m as a 3yo. Her mother Cissy Bowen failed every time tried past 1800m incl last in a Travis Stakes (2000m) after leading. If TL were mine, I'd be looking to 1600m in Australia in the autumn and spring 4yo and not even have a crack at an Oaks or Derby. Edited January 14, 2020 by Maximus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buller Rep Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well I see it differently. In the Oaks she would bolt in, just like Snap. The Derby though would be a different matter, just like most other fillies before her who have failed because it’s a whole different matter if they are not bred to do it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Interesting thoughts. I'm inclined to agree with Buller that her class would stand to her in an Oaks; but, Columbia, although an under-performer given his pedigree, doesn't scream 'stamina limitations' to me. Certainly, her run in the Levin Classic was outstanding even given the very limited opposition [ number wise ]. And I take issue with the 'great ride ' comments made by commentator, she was settled last in a walk-and-sprint, if ever she was set up to be beaten it was then, but was just too good anyway. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 20 hours ago, Buller Rep said: Well I see it differently. In the Oaks she would bolt in, just like Snap. Bold! You are saying the ride cost her the guineas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buller Rep Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Sandpiper said: Bold! You are saying the ride cost her the guineas? That’s not what I am saying at all. I am saying that I could easily see her winning the Oaks but not the Derby and was using a sprint bred but highly talented filly that did win the Oaks as an analogy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Buller Rep said: That’s not what I am saying at all. I am saying that I could easily see her winning the Oaks but not the Derby and was using a sprint bred but highly talented filly that did win the Oaks as an analogy. I meant she needs some reason to reverse form with Loire and Jennifer Eccles. And it's not breeding or preparation. I think she'll be held by JE and Two Illicit over 2000+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) I can see TL winning an Oaks in a weak field (I don't think this is a particularly strong season for the girls) , esp off a slow/muddling tempo - whether she'd win off a genuine speed I'm not so sure. But I'm more concerned what a Derby/Oaks campaign would do to her longer term. We have to remember that these horses are still growing and susceptble to a multitude of potential injuries. With so much money available in Oz -Doncaster/Golden Eagle etc, , why risk her over the longer journeys? Edited January 15, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/14/2020 at 10:11 PM, Buller Rep said: Well I see it differently. In the Oaks she would bolt in, just like Snap. The Derby though would be a different matter, just like most other fillies before her who have failed because it’s a whole different matter if they are not bred to do it. Snap's Oaks (1994) was in January (not late March/April) and she won only 3 of 17 starts after that victory -at 1400/1600m. Beaten at all 3 starts beyond 1600 after the Oaks.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 She will run into what looks like a top horse in Dragon Leap in the Derby, and another nice staying type in Scorpz. Holy Mongolemperor still a maiden but second fave for the Derby??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 Definitely the Derby, quoting Ben Foote in today's Herald talking about the Herbie Dyke, so beware if you were thinking about a bet at 7's in the Oaks "I know they [three-year-olds] haven't got a bad record in it and it's a Group 1 and worth $400,000, but the New Zealand Derby [Group 1, 2400m] is worth more and it's the main goal. She's definitely going for the Derby over the New Zealand Oaks [Group 1, 2400m] against the fillies." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 TL taking on Two Illicit and Dragons Leap on Saturday over 2000. With two leaders in the race the picture is about to get a lot clearer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 I doubt they would press on with the Derby or Oaks after that run, probably stick to 1600m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 On 1/14/2020 at 3:39 PM, Maximus said: Zabeel/Eight Carat via TL's damsire Columbia (a $1.6M yearling who never raced and was hardly super-successful at stud) I don't see anything encouraging in TL's first three generations that would make me think this filly will stay 2400m as a 3yo. Her mother Cissy Bowen failed every time tried past 1800m incl last in a Travis Stakes (2000m) after leading. If TL were mine, I'd be looking to 1600m in Australia in the autumn and spring 4yo and not even have a crack at an Oaks or Derby. On today's run, you would have to say you have been proven right. Although small field and Te Rapa is renowned for favouring front runners. I read that Roger James has a very very high opinion of Two Illicit, and look like with Reggiewood, he may be back as the Derby king, after a long break. Dragon Leap, now a bit of a question mark missing today. They did say, it was Waikato Guineas, then straight to the Derby, so now they have to go for the Avondale Guineas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Interesting with Jennifer Eccles I remember Donovan Mansour saying she was definitely just a sprinter when she 'won' that race on the first day at Hawkes Bay. Shows how horses can improve I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Hesi said: On today's run, you would have to say you have been proven right. Although small field and Te Rapa is renowned for favouring front runners. I read that Roger James has a very very high opinion of Two Illicit, and look like with Reggiewood, he may be back as the Derby king, after a long break. Dragon Leap, now a bit of a question mark missing today. They did say, it was Waikato Guineas, then straight to the Derby, so now they have to go for the Avondale Guineas Yes, big smile on James's face today. Why was Dragon Leap scratched? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maximus said: Yes, big smile on James's face today. Why was Dragon Leap scratched? Slight knock apparently. Will now go to Avondale Guineas on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 Elevated temperature 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buller Rep Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Hesi said: Elevated temperature That's a setback, for sure. I predict that he wont be seen in NZ again.! Sydney is calling, given the timing required to get over it, the elevated temperature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 TAB have put Two Illicit who is not yet nominated as 2.60 fave over Dragon Leap at 3.20 for the NZ Derby, so they obviously consider today as a significant setback. Hong Kong owned, same ownership as The Autumn Sun, so you are probably right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 Travelling Light shin sore and out for a spell Dragon Leap, all up to whether he still has an elevated temperature, if so then wont start in Avondale Guineas, so no NZ Derby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Was going to ask if any of Travelling Light's fans still see her as an Oaks filly? Shin soreness aouced tpday - hardly surprising given the miles her legs have run since the early Spring. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the same happened between now and the Oaks to Jennifer Eccles, who, along with TL, has performed with great strength and courage since September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Shin sore makes perfect sense that was an awful effort when asked to put in. I dont think she will ever run over a mile and a half now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Maximus said: Wouldn't be at all surprised if the same happened between now and the Oaks to Jennifer Eccles, who, along with TL, has performed with great strength and courage since September. Its a full schedule for an Oaks winner for sure taking in the guineas and everything else along the way. As impressive as Saturday was the will be the usual pack of late developing unexposed types. I liked Grand De Flora to mount a challenge as well but shes not accepted today no idea why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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