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Punting a quarter mill at a NZ meeting


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10 hours ago, Hesi said:

So with so many variables and the absence of information, hard to say which options offer the most return to NZ racing.

Probably have to say oncourse with all the other associated expenditure on food, drink and room charges, and using the tote with average take out of 20% would provide the best overall return??

Probably would be right.

I have written on the topic of TAB takeout previously. And this is how I see it.

The punter does not contribute the takeout related to their bets. They contribute their losses (some of which may go to the industry, some of which may go to other punters).

So in the event BGP bet say $250k on the tote with average takeout of 20%, the TAB would get $50k of takeout based on the betting volume. If BGP made $1 profit from those bets, the TAB still take their $50k. But the $50k has to come from somewhere else. So in a situation where a new punter enters the market and bets $250k compared to that punter not betting at all, in this example, the other punters are faced with paying the extra $50k - since the actual takeout is going to be coming from the pockets of those other punters - in real terms.

So should that happen, the other punters have forked out $50k more than otherwise. i.e. their rate of loss has been accelerated overall. If they still bet at he level they had planned on the day, the impact on that one day may be limited. But in the scheme of the collection of punters, you've simply reduced the amount of money held by all those other punters by that $50k - since BGP would still have all their money.

And that has the follow on issue of the churn from then on from those other punters being less (as they have less money), and the issue that there isn't an endless supply of funds from those other punters. (Punters won't just keep losing more and more in general). This is the very concept that NZRB and NZTR cannot comprehend. They think, more money from one punter into the tote. More revenue. So attracting big punters to bet on tote pools and give them rebates etc, is a winner. When the whole idea is ill thought out.

Of course the opposite applies to BGP investing $250k and losing the lot. That means the other punters have an extra $200k in their pockets over the course of the day, and $50k to the TAB from the takeout. But the extra $200k the other punters have, has the ability to entice more spend there etc.

So takeout applies to a pool, not an individuals bet. And a punter that bets on the tote and wins, is not contributing to the industry - even though they think they are. (and of course the rules on that are very clear).

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I don't think it's possible to get them to comprehend this. The RITA chair and CEO seems to now be suggesting that those of us who think so are misinformed. If you look at the spiel and actions on cur

I don't want to be rude, BUT, they've now put $28k on Taroni to place - but multied it up with Catalyst winning. Nuts. And they've taken odds of $1.10 in that bet on Catalyst. Adding the Cat

I was in the BGP syndicate yesterday.Was bloody good seeing who and what amount they punted on each race,then cheering them home.I'm not a big punter by any means when i punt,so being in this syndicat

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17 minutes ago, mardigras said:

And that has the follow on issue of the churn from then on from those other punters being less (as they have less money), and the issue that there isn't an endless supply of funds from those other punters. (Punters won't just keep losing more and more in general). This is the very concept that NZRB and NZTR cannot comprehend. They think, more money from one punter into the tote. More revenue. So attracting big punters to bet on tote pools and give them rebates etc, is a winner. When the whole idea is ill thought out.

I don't think it's possible to get them to comprehend this. The RITA chair and CEO seems to now be suggesting that those of us who think so are misinformed. If you look at the spiel and actions on current revenue strategies they clearly still don't get it. Certainly, they have $14m a year coming on line from the duty rebate. But that is a pittance alongside the current overspending on distributions and a new government could decide to wipe that taxpayer donation with the stroke of a pen.

The 3 other main strategies, Racefields, PoC tax and additional events and betting products are all reliant on the same fallacy when they are simply different ways of collecting the same pool of money from the same group of punters. Albeit in increasingly complex and more expensive ways and with the probable effects that you suggest. I.e., reduction of churn and higher loss rates leading to some walking away to other betting activities, unaffected providers or other non- betting entertainment altogether.

I had thought about attending a RITA roadshow event next week and having one more crack at trying to get this across but I've decided it would be a waste of time. They won't get it till they see the results sadly. And asking for detail of their supporting analysis for examination will likely again be fobbed off with the 'commercially sensitive' line which I take to mean that they don't actually have any robust and reliable analysis. How could they?

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I thought you had it pretty much right Mardi, 1/5 of the pool on a $1.95 shot, which is now down to 1.85.

Harlech is a class act, so maybe he will upset the party for the ruling glitterati

Have they plonked some on Only In Jakarta also, down to $1.90

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I don't want to be rude, BUT, they've now put $28k on Taroni to place - but multied it up with Catalyst winning. Nuts.

And they've taken odds of $1.10 in that bet on Catalyst.

Adding the Catalyst option is insanity at its finest. Clearly the people doing the selecting just like putting bets on short priced runners.

Putting effectively $90k on him winning at $1.10 in order for the bet to be successful, is crazy stuff imo, whether the horse wins or not.

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9 minutes ago, Hesi said:

As a suggestion, why don't  you guys and anyone else in fact, make out you are the selector for the BGP Punters Club and put up your 240 K worth of selections

The problem for me would be getting $100k+ on a horse paying $15 - $20.

The other problem for me is I'm away until February and no info and not punting.

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12 minutes ago, Hesi said:

As a suggestion, why don't  you guys and anyone else in fact, make out you are the selector for the BGP Punters Club and put up your 240 K worth of selections

No for 2 reasons.

1) its similar to paper trading, unless you actually put the bet down its counts for F all and is just a theory.

2) I structure everything I do for the long term outcome, my style of punting is NOT suited to short term 1 day few bet hits like this.

 

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Just now, barryb said:

No for 2 reasons.

1) its similar to paper trading, unless you actually put the bet down its counts for F all and is just a theory.

2) I structure everything I do for the long term outcome, my style of punting is NOT suited to short term 1 day few bet hits like this.

 

That's the issue. If I did this, I wouldn't change the approach. So in a punters club, they could lose the lot being one day, or possibly win a lot.

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36 minutes ago, Hesi said:

As a suggestion, why don't  you guys and anyone else in fact, make out you are the selector for the BGP Punters Club and put up your 240 K worth of selections

Why don’t you have a crack Hesi

The BGP goat, Ted and Luke are the three sorting out BGP,s bets

Spend 35k per race with three 10k multis thrown in 

One rule no exotics as you will lose on the race with such volume 

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6 hours ago, mardigras said:

The problem for me would be getting $100k+ on a horse paying $15 - $20.

The other problem for me is I'm away until February and no info and not punting.

Do you possibly think the BGP would struggle to get a similar bet on as well?

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6 hours ago, Hesi said:

Just a thought fellas

Might have a go

Anyone else welcome though

R2 Madam Hass 40K place @2.80

R3 Vigor Winner 40K win @ 12.00

R4 Not An Option/Play That Song 40K quinella

R5 Princess Kereru 40K win @ 8.50

R6 Harlech 80K place

Have a go anyone for a bit of fun

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6 hours ago, pete said:

Here's their bets so far

Screenshot_20200123-133819_BGP.jpg

I've just done those races. Have Catalyst on top at 4.50. The worst value of any bet on the day at the moment. In fact anything else in that race is good to excellent value for me. No value for me in Taroni either. Have it at $18. And Probabeel at $6

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2 minutes ago, curious said:

I've just done those races. Have Catalyst on top at 4.50. The worst value of any bet on the day at the moment. In fact anything else in that race is good to excellent value for me.

Ha, brilliant, I have just re-looked at it myself and I have very similar, Catalyst at $4.30

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I seem to remember last year the syndicate was up heading into the last race and then put a bit of a silly bet on to try and either double or triple the money (I can’t remember which).

The bet ended up losing and everybody ended up with there initial investment back. 

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Easy to be critical of their bets but it is a bloody tough gig.  It's a very small number of races so hard to take a long term value approach.

I wouldn't risk the $1.10 on Catalyst and I wouldn't back Probabeel at that price with Harlech and Conquerer in that field.  However I'm not the one having to front up and I wish these guys the best of luck.  Ted is a right twat but the Goat is a good bloke and like them or not, BGP are doing a great job of getting more people interested in racing.  

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