Covid-19 update

[Freda]

41 minutes ago, curious said:

Which management? Sounded from the interview with Saundry I saw yesterday they are thinking at least 6 months. Even if the level 4 only lasts 8-12 weeks it will surely take that again to have enough fit horses and riders to run races again won't it?

 

Club management. 

[curious]

Is there not a cinders trotting track in the middle there still that could be kept open?

Don't the clubs and training venue operators now have a clear directive also?

Operators of Training venues:
10.0 Racing clubs and other operators of training venues must:
10.1 Request names of all trainers and staff using facilities on a regular basis;
10.2 By agreement with resident trainers, allocate times for trainers to use facility so there are as few people as possible at any given time at the track, and allocate tie-up stalls to ensure appropriate physical distancing;
10.3 Gain confidence through discussion with local trainers, that measures required in this Directive are adhered to, or rectify any deficient work practices;
10.4 Erect signage to clearly prohibit access of non-authorised persons to the property;
10.5 Ensure adequate supervision (noting distancing requirements) of the facility whilst training facilities are utilised;
10.6 Ensure that (unless in emergency situations) that club staff can perform duties at a safe physical distance from users of the facility, or at times when users have vacated specific areas;
10.7 Minimise the number of staff on the facility, provided that this does not jeopardise health & safety of staff or persons permitted to be on-site;
10.8 Require home isolation in accordance with Government stipulation and prohibit the socialising of staff either at or away from the facility; and
10.9 Consider and implement any further local rules that ensure hygiene, physical distancing, and contact tracing that will further limit the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission.

 

[Freda]

1 hour ago, curious said:

Is there not a cinders trotting track in the middle there still that could be kept open?

Don't the clubs and training venue operators now have a clear directive also?

Operators of Training venues:
10.0 Racing clubs and other operators of training venues must:
10.1 Request names of all trainers and staff using facilities on a regular basis;
10.2 By agreement with resident trainers, allocate times for trainers to use facility so there are as few people as possible at any given time at the track, and allocate tie-up stalls to ensure appropriate physical distancing;
10.3 Gain confidence through discussion with local trainers, that measures required in this Directive are adhered to, or rectify any deficient work practices;
10.4 Erect signage to clearly prohibit access of non-authorised persons to the property;
10.5 Ensure adequate supervision (noting distancing requirements) of the facility whilst training facilities are utilised;
10.6 Ensure that (unless in emergency situations) that club staff can perform duties at a safe physical distance from users of the facility, or at times when users have vacated specific areas;
10.7 Minimise the number of staff on the facility, provided that this does not jeopardise health & safety of staff or persons permitted to be on-site;
10.8 Require home isolation in accordance with Government stipulation and prohibit the socialising of staff either at or away from the facility; and
10.9 Consider and implement any further local rules that ensure hygiene, physical distancing, and contact tracing that will further limit the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission.

 

            Yes,  there is still the cinders track, also the sand and plough and pool.      No grass track is open.

          Pretty strict rules for use of pool,  trainers' room,  etc....only one person at a time.

[LookingForValue]

trumps America

"Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. “Much worse,” said Ron Klain, who coordinated the U.S. response to the West African Ebola outbreak in 2014. “Beyond any expectations we had,” said Lauren Sauer, who works on disaster preparedness at Johns Hopkins Medicine. “As an American, I’m horrified,” said Seth Berkley, who heads Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.”"

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Edited March 26, 2020 by LookingForValue

[Hesi]

More sensationalist, disgraceful stuff from the Herald, splattered in a big red banner across the online edition.

A headline like that must put the shits up many people reading, yet it is only a reflection of the current mortality rate, in other countries where many other variables exist, 80,000 in 5 million, is 1.6%

Covid 19 coronavirus: 80,000 Kiwis could die from coronavirus if no lockdown: research

 

[mardigras]

Although to be fair - if no curtailment/lockdown, we would follow other paths. We are currently following Italy's case rate (even if not their death rate) from time since cases started in each place. And that is with the measures already in place.

I agree it is sensationalism, but the issue with the virus is the impact on the health system. In Italy, it's got beyond their capacity. That's the biggest problem. In NZ, it wouldn't take much to go beyond our health system infrastructure.

[Hesi]

48 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Although to be fair - if no curtailment/lockdown, we would follow other paths. We are currently following Italy's case rate (even if not their death rate) from time since cases started in each place. And that is with the measures already in place.

I agree it is sensationalism, but the issue with the virus is the impact on the health system. In Italy, it's got beyond their capacity. That's the biggest problem. In NZ, it wouldn't take much to go beyond our health system infrastructure.

So many worried Kiwis, uncertain about their future, open the herald website and are immediately confronted by this big red banner that 80,000 could die without containment.

It is a pointless and mischievous, scaremongering headline by a low class publication, that achieves nothing in terms of communicating helpful information to the public.

Close the rag down

[Globederby19]

Pardon the cynicism, but just WHO  is making money from all this. 

Let me guess. Those that control the money flow,those financial tiers way above Bank level. Once all the loans are in, and the moneys been printed. Ka Ching and mostly at our expense.

A chappie by the name of Prof Robert G Webster , one of the worlds greatest virologists , foretold this virus in his The Flu Hunter, a memoir of his Scientific breakthroughs. He said it would come and it has. He also warned Govts through the World Health Organisation for years to stockpile for such an event, such as ventilators, protective clothing, masks etc. 

Politicians never learn beyond their own short time in office, and History only teaches us that we learn nothing from History so the most we can only hope for is "normative incompetence".

Anyway back to Groundhog Day, have a lovely month off guys and to those having to work ,stay safe.

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So many worried Kiwis, uncertain about their future, open the herald website and are immediately confronted by this big red banner that 80,000 could die without containment.

It is a pointless and mischievous, scaremongering headline by a low class publication, that achieves nothing in terms of communicating helpful information to the public.

Close the rag down

Or - it's designed to make people stay home. I agree that the approach is poor overall - but I also know many people that have spent the last couple of days trying to explain to elderly family/people what exactly they are expected to do - and they still don't understand. Whether you agree or not, if you don't do your bit, then if things turn to custard, what are you going to think? Are you going to think - why didn't they tell us just how bad it could be, instead of being all lovey dovey asking us to stay home and stay in your bubble and she'll be right.

There is little issue with the virus in my view, even if it kills thousands in NZ. It's if it kills thousands because the health system breaks which escalates the impact of the virus, then that is an issue for me. That means other people needing health care, don't get it.

What do you think the death toll will be in Italy 5 days from now? The article is simply presenting some modelling done on the virus. It's on Stuff as well supposedly representing virus modelling. Every day over the last couple of weeks, the number of cases worldwide has been rising by 12% on the days total the day before. And the death rate is doing the same. That's with all the various lock down methods currently in situ.

NZ simply does not have the capacity to deal with a high number of cases requiring hospitalisation. So 471k worldwide confirmed cases now. Tomorrow at the same time, another 57,000. Deaths now 21,300. Tomorrow, another 2500. In 6 days, 950k cases, 42k deaths. That's the clear trend. That's in 6 days!

 

[Maximus]

22 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So many worried Kiwis, uncertain about their future, open the herald website and are immediately confronted by this big red banner that 80,000 could die without containment.

It is a pointless and mischievous, scaremongering headline by a low class publication, that achieves nothing in terms of communicating helpful information to the public.

Close the rag down

Disagree. While the 80,000 number is so frightening that its easy to view it as scaremongering, it is CRUCIAL TO HELP PEOPLE REALISE THAT THE LOCKDOWN HAS TO BE TREATED SERIOUSLY.

I  was disappointed to hear Cmnr Bush prattling on today that if people 'continue to flout the rules', they could be arrested. For god's sake, not taking action too late is what this is all about. We need to beb tough from the outset during the lockdown . Because Trump is such a dawk, USA is in for a huge tragedy over the next few months. 

I am encouraged that in NZ we are following the lead of Singapore and Taiwan. We have to keep the number of case hospitalised low, because we don't have huge resources of doctors and nurses or equipment like ICU beds and ventilator pumps etc. Still no-one in NZ in ICU from Covid-19 yet, and no deaths  - and we need to keep it that way for as long as possible. 

MM

[Hesi]

13 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Disagree. While the 80,000 number is so frightening that its easy to view it as scaremongering, it is CRUCIAL TO HELP PEOPLE REALISE THAT THE LOCKDOWN HAS TO BE TREATED SERIOUSLY.

I  was disappointed to hear Cmnr Bush prattling on today that if people 'continue to flout the rules', they could be arrested. For god's sake, not taking action too late is what this is all about. We need to beb tough from the outset during the lockdown . Because Trump is such a dawk, USA is in for a huge tragedy over the next few months. 

I am encouraged that in NZ we are following the lead of Singapore and Taiwan. We have to keep the number of case hospitalised low, because we don't have huge resources of doctors and nurses or equipment like ICU beds and ventilator pumps etc. Still no-one in NZ in ICU from Covid-19 yet, and no deaths  - and we need to keep it that way for as long as possible. 

MM

C'mon Maxi, you are giving the Herald too much credit.  Any publication that expects you to pay for updates on The Bachelorette has no credibility

[pete]

80000 deaths is just downright scaremongering. It would be a HUGE statistical anomaly compared to what has happened in China and elsewhere.

[Hesi]

25 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Or - it's designed to make people stay home. I agree that the approach is poor overall - but I also know many people that have spent the last couple of days trying to explain to elderly family/people what exactly they are expected to do - and they still don't understand. Whether you agree or not, if you don't do your bit, then if things turn to custard, what are you going to think? Are you going to think - why didn't they tell us just how bad it could be, instead of being all lovey dovey asking us to stay home and stay in your bubble and she'll be right.

There is little issue with the virus in my view, even if it kills thousands in NZ. It's if it kills thousands because the health system breaks which escalates the impact of the virus, then that is an issue for me. That means other people needing health care, don't get it.

What do you think the death toll will be in Italy 5 days from now? The article is simply presenting some modelling done on the virus. It's on Stuff as well supposedly representing virus modelling. Every day over the last couple of weeks, the number of cases worldwide has been rising by 12% on the days total the day before. And the death rate is doing the same. That's with all the various lock down methods currently in situ.

NZ simply does not have the capacity to deal with a high number of cases requiring hospitalisation. So 471k worldwide confirmed cases now. Tomorrow at the same time, another 57,000. Deaths now 21,300. Tomorrow, another 2500. In 6 days, 950k cases, 42k deaths. That's the clear trend. That's in 6 days!

 

Not taking issue with the modelling, which may or may not be right, nor the effect on the NZ health system's ability to cope, more the way the Herald is using it to scaremonger and sensationalise it's communication to people who are already scared and worried

[Midnight Caller]

Did I read somewhere that NZ has only 152 ICU beds(that's worrying)?Also presume you have makeshift emergency ICU on standby. I know a few were scoffing at Boris and the way he was going about things,but imo he has got it right and taken the right long hard road which simply takes the huge pressure off the essential  services by pumping the breaks and going down through the gears! Cindy has pretty much followed suit, we here are a few weeks ahead of NZ and we are getting into the groove of this system  for the good of the country.It is about protecting the  vulnerable!

On the racing front, here's  hoping this kick starts a new phase in NZ racing with a two tier system.Thoughts of maybe 3 race days per week,bigger/better fields ,better prize money and a better product all round.The smaller  clubs who are bound to get the cut now,go it alone and run as community clubs that are on- course only(maybe bookies 😜)and scheduled on the  calendar to run as a circuit of 3 or 4 clubs as per the west coast,when they know attendance will be at its highest .Also I would keep the jump racing (north island) 2 courses only,say Te Aroha and a venue in the central  districts,racing all year round.

Be safe

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[curious]

31 minutes ago, pete said:

80000 deaths is just downright scaremongering. It would be a HUGE statistical anomaly compared to what has happened in China and elsewhere.

How do you figure that out?

 

[pete]

8 hours ago, curious said:

How do you figure that out?

 

Because I don't see 1 million people dying from it in the UK. Purely my opinion mind you.

[Freda]

8 hours ago, Midnight Caller said:

Did I read somewhere that NZ has only 152 ICU beds(that's worrying)?Also presume you have makeshift emergency ICU on standby. I know a few were scoffing at Boris and the way he was going about things,but imo he has got it right and taken the right long hard road which simply takes the huge pressure off the essential  services by pumping the breaks and going down through the gears! Cindy has pretty much followed suit, we here are a few weeks ahead of NZ and we are getting into the groove of this system  for the good of the country.It is about protecting the  vulnerable!

On the racing front, here's  hoping this kick starts a new phase in NZ racing with a two tier system.Thoughts of maybe 3 race days per week,bigger/better fields ,better prize money and a better product all round.The smaller  clubs who are bound to get the cut now,go it alone and run as community clubs that are on- course only(maybe bookies 😜)and scheduled on the  calendar to run as a circuit of 3 or 4 clubs as per the west coast,when they know attendance will be at its highest .Also I would keep the jump racing (north island) 2 courses only,say Te Aroha and a venue in the central  districts,racing all year round.

Be safe

 

I like your concept...but - better prizemoney ?   Any prizemoney at all would be a moot point given the state of the TAB.

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, pete said:

Because I don't see 1 million people dying from it in the UK. Purely my opinion mind you.

I thought the model was based on not doing things to curb the spread? And the one I read was over a period of 400 days. I think if countries didn't do anything, a million in the UK would have been possible. But countries were always going to do something - and the response has been varied - which on the morbid side of it, makes the virus a very interesting study from a response/human behaviour point of view I would have thought.

And in the UK, they had their first death on March 5th. They had 115 last night - that's with them trying to prevent the spread.

[Midnight Caller]

Just thinking out loud Freda!With all that is going on,I see this break in racing as quite possibly the only chance they have  to try and get things right for the security of employment and the longitivity of the sport.Dear I say it,but this situation we are in could be used as the excuse behind some radical decisions for the future. There are some experienced and intelligent people on this site who I am sure can put forward  some suggestions. Hesi,maybe a new thread to get discussions going?

[mardigras]

On a slightly separate note - my bro was one off the electrical engineers involved in this. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52043767

Edited March 26, 2020 by mardigras

[Hesi]

Good article thanks, if any race can quickly mobilise resources and people to all pull in the same direction, it should be the British

[Hesi]

1 hour ago, Midnight Caller said:

Just thinking out loud Freda!With all that is going on,I see this break in racing as quite possibly the only chance they have  to try and get things right for the security of employment and the longitivity of the sport.Dear I say it,but this situation we are in could be used as the excuse behind some radical decisions for the future. There are some experienced and intelligent people on this site who I am sure can put forward  some suggestions. Hesi,maybe a new thread to get discussions going?

Done

[mardigras]

14 hours ago, mardigras said:

So 471k worldwide confirmed cases now. Tomorrow at the same time, another 57,000. Deaths now 21,300. Tomorrow, another 2500. In 6 days, 950k cases, 42k deaths. That's the clear trend. That's in 6 days!

So with 10 hours before the time arrives for 24 hours to pass from this post above.

And we have 57,000 more cases, 2660 more deaths. Ahead of the trend on this day. And these are with many countries in various levels of lockdown.

And USA have now taken the lead in cases - surpassing China and Italy.

Anyone want to have a stab at what the figures will be tomorrow. In 5 days from now, will we have 42k deaths as per above? What about 6 days after that - 85k? Or will the implemented strategies start slowing things down?

Edited March 26, 2020 by mardigras

[ngakonui grass]

IMO the reason the USA has taken the lead is because they are testing more people.Wouldn't believe any figures coming out of China and Italy is such a disfunctional country politically i would give credence to any figures from them apart fron the deaths.

[Maximus]

16 hours ago, Hesi said:

C'mon Maxi, you are giving the Herald too much credit.  Any publication that expects you to pay for updates on The Bachelorette has no credibility

I don't play their silly 'pay us for info' game, Hesi - and neither do I waste time watching nonsense of the Bachelorette or MAFS variety. Braunias is a genius writer, though. I note we have our first case of ICU on account of Covid. I fully expect the number of hospitalised cases to go up quickly in the next week or so.