What is the Call going to be on Monday

[craigos1]

12 minutes ago, barryb said:

Oh NO not Craig the communist again.

You sound like an over 65 yr old unionist Craig, you detest people being successful and achieving, you hate capitalism.

 

No only 52 Barry!

Yes pro Union.......................and I know you'll find hard to believe I admire people who do well for themselves.

Yes I can admire peoples success and be a Lefty!

[Hesi]

8 minutes ago, barryb said:

Hesi, where’s Pete?

This forum has become a wing of the Labour Party, all your looneys have come over.

Farking next thing you will have Thomass here.

 

NO

[pete]

13 minutes ago, barryb said:

Hesi, where’s Pete?

This forum has become a wing of the Labour Party, all your looneys have come over.

Farking next thing you will have Thomass here.

 

I'm here Barry. Quietly fuming about what's being done to this country.

[Midnight Caller]

40 minutes ago, barryb said:

No she’s fucking not Hesi, those clowns are not elected representatives, stop being a dickhead, have some fucking compassion for poor bastards losing businesses and income on the back of  0.03%.

You can't  blame solely her health advisers Barry.She may have gone on the info from her WhatsApp overseas group!  Cherie the lawyer,Wendy the nutritionist, Poppy the nanny and maybe even Tony was on the group,Cheries husband!

[pete]

Winston may end up being an unlikely saviour.

If this lockdown continues I can see things turning very ugly amongst the general populace.

[pete]

This is a genuine question.

Does anyone on here actually know of anyone who had had the virus.

I don't

 

[pete]

And just wait for them to start upping tax rates all over the show.

A socialist's wet dream.

[pete]

Here's one here. What an utter prat!

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/17/1131752/lift-tax-on-well-paid-until-were-through-this

[Midnight Caller]

14 minutes ago, barryb said:

What about Helen C the UN & WHO apologist?

Helen definitely on the list Barry!Is this where Thomo has disappeared too?

WHO Knew!

Edited April 18, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[pete]

1 minute ago, Midnight Caller said:

Helen definitely on the list Barry!Is this where Thomo has disappeared too?

WHO Knew!

He's never coming in here MC. That's a promise.

[Midnight Caller]

He could be drawing up the BP for the group! But I wouldn't  cross Cherie!

[Hesi]

Sure, they will be giving a lot of sway to the economic advice and modelling from Treasury about costs to the economy, unemployment data etc etc, but any government(Nats or Labour), is morally bound to place priority on the health issues.  So until there is more data on the random asymptomatic testing and the contact tracing is sorted, they cannot come out of Level 4, even if that means playing for another week, and we have seen in these times, how much can get done in a week.

If a business cannot survive 5 weeks, with the subsidies, tax relief, loan holidays and other deferral of costs such as rent and insurances etc, then the business was in a pretty weak position in the first place.  Much the same as the way this will hit NZ racing pretty badly, but it was in a very poor state anyway, with no reserves, no urgency to address it's issues.  20 months on from Messara and NZRB still have 595 employees!  One gets the impression, they are going to cling on and suck the place dry for as long as they can.

Our case figures are low, but it is the potential as to what can happen if the virus gets away on us, as we have seen in other countries. This is after all a very infectious virus, and even in NZ we have seen the damage it can do through the clusters that have got away.

By the way, I am a small business owner, and income has dropped away to zero now, but I have a lot of reserves so can get through quite easily, even come through it stronger, as it gives me 4 weeks off to prepare for when restrictions are lifted, and as I said, everyone has been bending over backwards to help, banks, ACC, IRD, debtors in general.

I think many businesses in general find a way to adapt, maybe even racing, although they are in a very weak position.  Just think, the quality of takeaways is going to go up substantially after this, with many restaurants looking at that option to survive

 

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, Hesi said:

Our case figures are low, but it is the potential as to what can happen if the virus gets away on us, as we have seen in other countries. This is after all a very infectious virus, and even in NZ we have seen the damage it can do through the clusters that have got away.

 

Whilst I agree generally, the issue for me is that if we are concerned with this, we will not be leaving Level 4 for a month or two. You won't know if you have eradicated it until you've done much more wide spread random testing, and you have no more cases able to infect. It's a balancing act between how close to eradication do we need to be that allows us to manage what we get in my view.

It's not an easy decision based on other countries outcomes. But we are a far less dense population than many, I still expect genetics is playing a part here and possibly some other local factors as well.

The longer this goes on at Level 4, any advantage will be lost from economic devastation. For the 8 - 10 weeks of major restrictions (including all restrictive Levels), I think the balance is about right. The job loss and business collapse is likely to be similar to having done nothing for those 8 - 10 weeks. If we haven't managed to have it in a manageable state by then, we won't until there is a vaccine imo. So at which point do you decide to open some things up and incur some spread/deaths - I'd say the time next week is about right - or maybe post Anzac day (assuming things continue as they are).

As I have mentioned previously, there is no plan B evident. I put those charts up yesterday, especially the NZ v Oz one, to highlight the standard rates of cases even in a country where they have reasonably tight lock down. I think that more than anything shows the effect of what NZ has been put through, and that it is working - to allow us the time to identify the major groups, and put plans into dealing with new cases. If we haven't been able to put those plans in over the last 4 weeks, what the hell have they been doing?

And I actually think whilst there is a lot of negatives to the lockdown, I think there are a number of positives as well. Although I'm lucky in that other than potentially getting the virus, it doesn't really affect my life. But that's clearly not the case for many.

A few things are clear, with or without lockdown, the landscape is going to change. People are going to need to be redeployed into different industry. Tourism/restaurants etc are not sustainable at the numbers we had (I think we were top heavy anyway which is probably why so many were incapable of sustaining a period like this). That's going to take a lot of time.

[Hesi]

52 minutes ago, barryb said:

The problem is Hesi that this isn’t 5 weeks long & we are back out to full capacity in week 6. The 5-8 weeks at little or nothing is followed by potentially 6-12 months or even 2 yrs of 10-25% reduction, that will kill many businesses. 
Granted much of this is beyond Jacinda’s control but what she can do is give hope and direction, she has been incredibly lacking here. She has fronted well but said not much, time tomorrow to loosen the iron grip of control.

Out the back of this we will have lost many freedoms forever and might as well have a micro chip in your shoulder.

And all of this at 0.027% infections, just imagine what it may be like at 0.1%.

Many of the measures Barry, are longer than 5 weeks, subsidy is 12 weeks, mortgage holiday or interest only(which I have gone to) is 6 months, tax relief doesn't have a time period but I think it was 3.1 billion, I pay my ACC levies in 10 monthly installments, I got a letter 3 weeks ago to say they would be extending this to 20, with only a small admin fee.

If a business was in a weak position pre-lockdown, then it is going to struggle post lockdown.  Racing has really done itself in the eye, the way it has sat on its hands for so long.  Time for drastic measures, which will be forced on the industry, because if there is a bailout, it will come with strict provisoes 

All the freedoms we had pre lockdown will return.  I'd be more concerned about the 1,000's of cameras there are all over Auckland, Google's ability to look into your life and the tracking data available through your phone, none of these anything to do with central government

[Hesi]

Well it is looking good so far, with zero positives on the random community asymptomatic testing, but they started testing Sat morning in Mangere and of all places Henderson(used to be a nice place many years ago), so results should be in this avo.

I think they will hold out for another week if the results come in all negative, so they can get more testing done

The contact tracing is sortable

A lot of people will have been working long hours over the weekend.

So my call would be, another week in lockdown, then a move to Level 3, followed fairly quickly by a move to Level 2, if the asymptomatic testing continues to show no positives, but the big issues remain with hospitality(close gatherings of people) and tourism(keeping the border locked down).  I guess an answer there is a lot quicker test that can be done at the airports.... something like a pregnancy test which takes minutes

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Hesi said:

 and tourism(keeping the border locked down).  I guess an answer there is a lot quicker test that can be done at the airports.... something like a pregnancy test which takes minutes

I'd say border will be operated as per now for months. Enforced 2 week quarantine - even with test.

[Hesi]

6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I'd say border will be operated as per now for months. Enforced 2 week quarantine - even with test.

Maybe okay for returning residents, but surely not workable for tourism

If they had a 5 min, bullet proof test for the virus at the border, why would that not be workable, also for gatherings, a bit of a pain but workable?

Some clever company will come up with a quick test.

[curious]

6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Maybe okay for returning residents, but surely not workable for tourism

If they had a 5 min, bullet proof test for the virus at the border, why would that not be workable, also for gatherings, a bit of a pain but workable?

Some clever company will come up with a quick test.

There already is one. Not specific to Covid but great for border and other screening. https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/Rio-Tinto-increases-COVID-19-screening-measures-at-Perth-Airport

Edited April 18, 2020 by curious

[mardigras]

7 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Maybe okay for returning residents, but surely not workable for tourism

If they had a 5 min, bullet proof test for the virus at the border, why would that not be workable, also for gatherings, a bit of a pain but workable?

Some clever company will come up with a quick test.

Tourism? I don't think tourists will be allowed into NZ for 6 months+ (except possibly from Australia). 

So, if they have a bullet proof test at the border. And they get 1000 positives in a day - where do they go? And what do they do with the other passengers on the flights?

Edited April 18, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, curious said:

There already is one. Not specific to Covid but great for border and other screening. https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/Rio-Tinto-increases-COVID-19-screening-measures-at-Perth-Airport

I think they are aimed at risk minimisation - not 100% prevention.

If NZ just wanted risk minimisation, we are already at that level.

Edited April 18, 2020 by mardigras

[Hesi]

17 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Tourism? I don't think tourists will be allowed into NZ for 6 months+ (except possibly from Australia). 

So, if they have a bullet proof test at the border. And they get 1000 positives in a day - where do they go? And what do they do with the other passengers on the flights?

Good point, maybe pre-boarding then

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Good point, maybe pre-boarding then

I'd imagine border screening is fine if NZ was prepared to manage the situations that unfold. We haven't shown we are wanting to go down that path (hence barry's issue). Remember, when the virus was in its relative infancy with numbers, our cases all stemmed from border arrivals, so the screening would have to be very good.

There would be so many things to consider with opening borders. What happens when pre-boarding test is positive. Do the other passengers get to travel?, does the flight happen? A person may have the virus and not show up on the pre board test. And that could manifest to a greater degree during the period of the flight.

It's about your risk tolerance. We have acted with a very low risk tolerance (maybe advisedly). If we persist with that, borders will be a risk too big imo. Time will tell.

Edited April 18, 2020 by mardigras

[ngakonui grass]

I'm hearing mumblings from various people about the level 4 restrictions and given that level 3 aren't much different for the average person,the Govt will have to be careful what choice they make.

Victory has a thousand fathers,defeat is an orphan ,those words will be ringing in their ears,so imo they will extend level 4 for another 2 weeks at least and go from there.

 

 

 

[Hesi]

In the most positive scenario, New Zealand would end its current level 4 lockdown after one month, followed by another month of level 3 and ten months at levels 2 and 1. In this case, treasury estimates GDP would drop by around 5% and unemployment would peak at around 8%, but only because of the government's NZ$12 billion rescue package. This may seem more palatable, but is still far worse than the recession that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, when New Zealand's GDP declined by 2.2% and unemployment peaked at 6.9%.

 

 

• Martin Berka is a Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance at Massey University

[ngakonui grass]

26 minutes ago, barryb said:

If the do extend for 2 more weeks they will face annihilation at the next election.

BARRYB i hope NZers are a bit more tolerant than 2 weeks and i'm certainly not a Labour fan,but they have done well so far in their communication skills.

One huge problem that they are going to create is that Robertson has come out and said that they are looking at taking stakes in some NZ businesses.

Not a loan apparently but actual stake in the business.

This is going to be their '''Finance company collapse'' moment.It will have huge financial implications.