What is the Call going to be on Monday

[pete]

This is a very long article but about the best I've seen in articulating the current situation in New Zealand.

I know Simon O'Connor is a National MP but those of you of the opposite persuasion would do well to consider a lot of what he is saying here.

https://m.facebook.com/notes/simon-oconnor/covid-statistics-politics-and-the-way-forward/2840410452722093/?notif_id=1587109508825147&notif_t=page_highlights

[curious]

1 hour ago, barryb said:

The community testing is such a bloody tiny sample that I wonder what the purpose of it even is.

The statistical variance makes it a joke really.

I think it's 'targeted testing' that is happening at the moment as recommended by the epidemiologists. It's not meant to be representative of the whole population. The recommendation was to target people who are identified through having a higher level of exposure to potentially infectious people than the wider population. This is the likes of asymptomatic contacts of cases, healthcare workers; and other essential workers who continue to have regular proximity to others during the lock-down (eg, supermarket workers and/or their customers).

The recommendation for wider population testing is to use whole city sewage testing to confirm elimination (or not). If that can't be done or doesn't work then much larger samples of the above are required for that as you suggest. I don't think that level of testing is under way yet though.

Edited April 18, 2020 by curious

[curious]

14 minutes ago, barryb said:

Curious they were doing the testing on randoms at the supermarket, nothing targeted about that.

It was done here in Hamilton at Pack N Save.

The target is people who are out and about shopping, exposed to frontline retail workers who have been exposed to a whole heap of other people on the assumption that these people are more likely to have become infected but are still asymptomatic. I think they have also done or are doing samples of front line health care workers. The 'target' bit is about groups of people more likely to have been exposed. I don't know if they did this in the supermarket samples but it was also suggested they target younger people who were more likely to have been mixing socially.

Edited April 18, 2020 by curious

[mardigras]

5 minutes ago, pete said:

This is a very long article but about the best I've seen in articulating the current situation in New Zealand.

I know Simon O'Connor is a National MP but those of you of the opposite persuasion would do well to consider a lot of what he is saying here.

https://m.facebook.com/notes/simon-oconnor/covid-statistics-politics-and-the-way-forward/2840410452722093/?notif_id=1587109508825147&notif_t=page_highlights

Certainly some fair points. I don't think many would disagree that borders were shut too late.

We must begin by enlarging our view to incorporate more than just ‘health’ issues when thinking about Covid-19. The economy is taking a battering. Unlike Australia and some Scandinavian countries, for example, we have effectively closed everything down or facilitated monopolies for those remaining open. We have created a tension between those called ‘essential’ and those who know they are essential. To use Scott Morrison again, his view that every job and worker is essential is correct. It does not matter if you pack a supermarket shelf or mow lawns, your job provides the essential monies you need to look after yourself and family and contribute to society in a way that is meaningful to you.

But he is now comparing us to Australia as if he thinks they have done as well as us with less restrictions. I don't think so. I'd put money on NZ coming out of this economic wise better than they do. And saying 'Unlike Australia.....

Anecdotal it may be, however I don't personally know a single person in NZ that has lost their job or business as yet. But I personally know a number that have in Australia. He's deluded if he thinks Australia's economy is going to rise up out of this in some superior fashion. Apparently Scott Morrison thinks every job and worker is essential.

Let's not forget, Australia are already in planned lockdown until May 11.  Even those business's that are open that maybe wouldn't be open here - they aren't doing a heck of a lot of business. Some are closed that can be open because it is simply less costly to shut than stay open. People have fear in Australia too - or maybe he didn't realise that.

I don't mind debating a topic, but some of his points are as bad as the ones he is trying to counter.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, barryb said:

Excellent commentary.

He should have stopped when he said the border closure was late. And then simply stated that we should lessen restrictions to ensure we balance the focus on both health and economy.

But not use any arguments around what Australia or Scandinavia are doing. For the same reasons he questioned using the USA and Spain, they are not the same.

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, barryb said:

To be fair Mardi, that ship is 8 weeks from sailing, when the subsidy runs out then the culling occurs. 

Yep -  but that culling will happen when the Oz support runs out equally. And I'm not disagreeing with you about ending Level 4. As I've said, I think they should. Because I think it is about management and balance. Oz have another 4 weeks of the current level of lockdown.

Edited April 18, 2020 by mardigras

[curious]

2 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Yep -  but that culling will happen when the Oz support runs out equally. And I'm not disagreeing with you about ending Level 4. As I've said, I think they should. Because I think it is about management and balance. 

I agree unless the numbers go pear shaped between now and Wednesday. And I think the time between level 3 and level 2 could be quite short, possibly 2 weeks. If they can crank up the testing and sort the tracking in that time-frame.

[pete]

He makes some good points about tax though. Taxing everyone to the hilt is not going to be the way out of this.

I read an article in the Telegraph where the author advocated replicating what Germany did after WW2. Create a new currency and slash taxes. Seemed to work for them.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, curious said:

I agree unless the numbers go pear shaped between now and Wednesday. And I think the time between level 3 and level 2 could be quite short, possibly 2 weeks. If they can crank up the testing and sort the tracking in that time-frame.

Yep, I'm in agreement there. And they should have been working on the plans to implement the types and broadness of testing required over the last 3 - 4 weeks. Level 3 should be merely an endorsement period that the processes are working around testing/management etc.

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, pete said:

He makes some good points about tax though. Taxing everyone to the hilt is not going to be the way out of this.

I agree.  

[curious]

1 minute ago, mardigras said:

Yep, I'm in agreement there. And they should have been working on the plans to implement the types and broadness of testing required over the last 3 - 4 weeks. Level 3 should be merely an endorsement period that the processes are working around testing/management etc.

Yes, a holding period while they get the remainder of those things firmly in place. They are obviously still scrambling a bit on things like the tracking and the community wide (sewerage?) testing needs to be well under way with positive results.

 

[Hesi]

Remember also, that if they do extend Level 4, then that will probably come with further assistance measures, which will well and truly have been run as part of the Treasury modelling

[curious]

1 hour ago, curious said:

Yes, a holding period while they get the remainder of those things firmly in place. They are obviously still scrambling a bit on things like the tracking and the community wide (sewerage?) testing needs to be well under way with positive results.

 

Maybe that should have said negative results but you get my drift.

 

[mardigras]

If you are in an industry reliant on international tourism, might be a good idea to diversify/redeploy.

 

Tourism authorities fear it could take years for Far North Queensland's tourism-driven economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the ABC is reporting.

The region — home to the Great Barrier Reef and world-heritage-listed rainforest — normally sees 3 million international and domestic visitors a year in an industry worth $A2.5 billion annually.

The Cairns domestic and international airports have almost ground to a halt with just a handful of flights arriving each week.

Tourism Tropical North Queensland chief executive Mark Olsen said the region lost more than $200 million worth of bookings in March with the impact to the end of April estimated at $500 million in lost visitor spending.

"We have seen over 2650 jobs lost to date and more than 5,000 people stood down in the region," he said.

[curious]

More than a good idea I'd say. Not likely to more than barely exist in the 'new' economy for the immediate future.

 

[curious]

42 minutes ago, barryb said:

No Sewerage testing, been ruled out. 

OK. Guess they'll be going with wider samples of community testing then? Was that in today's media prezzie?

 

[Hesi]

4 hours ago, pete said:

This is a very long article but about the best I've seen in articulating the current situation in New Zealand.

I know Simon O'Connor is a National MP but those of you of the opposite persuasion would do well to consider a lot of what he is saying here.

https://m.facebook.com/notes/simon-oconnor/covid-statistics-politics-and-the-way-forward/2840410452722093/?notif_id=1587109508825147&notif_t=page_highlights

Quite a well balanced article Pete, so I'm just wondering why the copy and paste fanatic, who can't formulate and articulate an opinion of his own would post it

[brown fox]

Simon O'Connor for leader of the National Party

[Hesi]

3 hours ago, brown fox said:

Simon O'Connor for leader of the National Party

I had a look at some video coverage of him after your comment.

He is certainly a lot easier to listen too than the other Simon, you may have a point

[curious]

27 minutes ago, barryb said:

Looking through racing books in our Library at home today & I found a book my daughter bought from Browsers 2nd hand bookshop a few yrs back.

Black November The 1918 Influenza Epidemic in New Zealand

Its a damn good read in this current environment.

How did that get in your racing book library?

 

[Hesi]

I did a quick read about it on Wiki, man that is scary stuff, bodies turning black etc 

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadlyinfluenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time.^[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

[curious]

2 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I did a quick read about it on Wiki, man that is scary stuff, bodies turning black etc 

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadlyinfluenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time.^[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

This might be the 100 year renewal then?

[Hesi]

5 minutes ago, curious said:

This might be the 100 year renewal then?

Don't tempt fate.

I note that the 1918 virus mutated and came back a lot worse to have another go at the populace at large, back then

[curious]

2 minutes ago, barryb said:

Interestingly we have learnt little in a hundred yrs, NZs main issue was lax border handling in 1918.

 

I suppose they let in a couple of cruise ships and a few dreamliners?

[Hesi]

Haven't read up about it, but was it brought back to NZ by all those returning from the war in Europe

Quarantining may have been difficult then