Melbourne Spring 2020

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

A chance for an Aussie horse to win a MC again, Vow and Declare might even do it again, currently at 26

He's been trading at 40 - 65 recently elsewhere. I think he was lucky last year due to it being a sprint. You don't see many cups where the top 9 or 10 are within a length or two of the winner.

Never say never, but I doubt it. How about a kiwi = The Chosen One

Edited August 4, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

A few Aidan and Joseph Cox Plate noms.

Standouts include Armory, Circus Maximus, Ennistymon, Sir Dragonet, Magic Wand, Magical??, Japan, Mogul, Tiger Moth for Aidan - not sure how many if any. I understand were quite keen for Magic Wand/Sir Dragonet.

For Joseph - Buckhurst, Master Of Reality, Twilight Payment 

Also Fancy Blue for Donnacha.

Very few other international NH noms. Plumatic, Le Don De Vie and a few others - no Japanese from what I saw. They are highly unlikely for carnival.

Edited August 4, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

Williams cup hopeful Pondus is down to race at Leopardstown tonight in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes. Only a small field and up against another possible in Nickajack Cave. Pondus is the current fav for the race.

[mardigras]

23 hours ago, mardigras said:

Williams cup hopeful Pondus is down to race at Leopardstown tonight in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes. Only a small field and up against another possible in Nickajack Cave. Pondus is the current fav for the race.

Nickajack Cave did best here. Pondus very one paced (4th of 5) and to date, not a big fan of his performances.

[mardigras]

This morning at Deauville, we had the Messara runner Skyward win the Prix De Reux, a G3 over 2500m. Had been talked of as a cup contender for this year. With that win, maybe they will try and get him there.

[PWJ]

5 hours ago, mardigras said:

This morning at Deauville, we had the Messara runner Skyward win the Prix De Reux, a G3 over 2500m. Had been talked of as a cup contender for this year. With that win, maybe they will try and get him there.

Mardi, the plan with Skyward was always to aim at the 2021 MC. We want to give him a very sound education in these type of races like the one he triumphed in at the weekend before paying up to bring him down here. Plan is on course so far with him winning 4 of 6 starts to date. Would be wonderful for us to have a runner in the Cup. Once in a lifetime experience !

[mardigras]

17 minutes ago, PWJ said:

Mardi, the plan with Skyward was always to aim at the 2021 MC. We want to give him a very sound education in these type of races like the one he triumphed in at the weekend before paying up to bring him down here. Plan is on course so far with him winning 4 of 6 starts to date. Would be wonderful for us to have a runner in the Cup. Once in a lifetime experience !

Awesome - thanks for the update PJ. Won well this morning so he is doing well.

[PWJ]

4 hours ago, mardigras said:

Awesome - thanks for the update PJ. Won well this morning so he is doing well.

Having said that we are still looking at options as to whether we could bring him down for this year's Cup if we wanted to.

[VC!]

Travel exemptions have been granted to Kiwi horses and their staff to travel to Aus for the spring carnivals

[mardigras]

20 hours ago, VC! said:

Travel exemptions have been granted to Kiwi horses and their staff to travel to Aus for the spring carnivals

I think The Chosen One may be better this year than last.

[VC!]

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

I think The Chosen One may be better this year than last.

I agree with you, he trialled quite nicely recently,

I have a sneaky suspicion he’ll  be right there, he was well backed at the Call of the card last year, I’m picking no internationals so he’s a big chance

Wondering if team Hawkes will aim towards the Cup with Master of Wine?

[mardigras]

28 minutes ago, VC! said:

I agree with you, he trialled quite nicely recently,

I have a sneaky suspicion he’ll  be right there, he was well backed at the Call of the card last year, I’m picking no internationals so he’s a big chance

Wondering if team Hawkes will aim towards the Cup with Master of Wine?

I would expect Master Of Wine to be in the mix for the cup. Just waiting to see whether they go Caulfield or Cox direction.

[mardigras]

Tonight we have a couple of races at The Curragh featuring some possible noms for the cups.

The St Leger Trial (group 3) has Master Of Reality, Search For A Song and Micro Manage (for Willie Mullins). Delphi for Aidan O'Brien might have something to say there. Search For A Song is looking like dueling for favoritism with Delphi. Micro Manage the interesting runner for me.

Following that is the Royal Whip Stakes (group 3) has William's horse Degraves. Over a shorter trip than the St Leger Trial, up against some pretty useful types.

[mardigras]

Over the weekend there are some other events with possible cup interest.

Miami Bound, the VRC Oaks winner is down to run in the Regal Roller at Caulfield

King's Will Dream and Regal Power are in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield

Dalasan is in the Spring Stakes at Morphettville

Raheen House is set to reappear in the Premier's Cup Prelude (along with Big Duke)

Shared Ambition (one of the current lower priced runners for the cups) is down to run in Spring Preview Hcp along with Angel Of Truth, and of course, Sir Charles Road.

In the UK/Ire we have Almania down to run in the Geoffrey Freer (group 3) at Newbury. Might need to win this to have a chance at enough weight in the cup.

Also entered in a race at Dundalk is William's horse Virimli on the all weather. He'd be a long way down the order of entry should they bring him out, and this event is not going to do much for him in that regard, imo.

 

 

[mardigras]

In other news, Nickajack Cave has been largely sold to Australian interests and is planned to be heading out to join Peter Moody. At this stage plan is to not run again in UK/Ire, and head straight into cup. Has been a massive shortener after beating Pondus, and even more so with the planned move to Australia.

[mardigras]

22 hours ago, mardigras said:

Tonight we have a couple of races at The Curragh featuring some possible noms for the cups.

The St Leger Trial (group 3) has Master Of Reality, Search For A Song and Micro Manage (for Willie Mullins). Delphi for Aidan O'Brien might have something to say there. Search For A Song is looking like dueling for favoritism with Delphi. Micro Manage the interesting runner for me.

Following that is the Royal Whip Stakes (group 3) has William's horse Degraves. Over a shorter trip than the St Leger Trial, up against some pretty useful types.

Delphi as above, managed to hold on here. Master Of Reality was a little better in this, a little bit less one paced. Micro Manage went reasonable for 3rd and Search For a Song was a non runner. 

Degraves went quite well for 4th but not sure where he will end up. 

[mardigras]

On 8/14/2020 at 8:27 AM, mardigras said:

Over the weekend there are some other events with possible cup interest.

Miami Bound, the VRC Oaks winner is down to run in the Regal Roller at Caulfield

King's Will Dream and Regal Power are in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield

Dalasan is in the Spring Stakes at Morphettville

Raheen House is set to reappear in the Premier's Cup Prelude (along with Big Duke)

Shared Ambition (one of the current lower priced runners for the cups) is down to run in Spring Preview Hcp along with Angel Of Truth, and of course, Sir Charles Road.

In the UK/Ire we have Almania down to run in the Geoffrey Freer (group 3) at Newbury. Might need to win this to have a chance at enough weight in the cup.

Also entered in a race at Dundalk is William's horse Virimli on the all weather. He'd be a long way down the order of entry should they bring him out, and this event is not going to do much for him in that regard, imo.

To cap these runners.

Miami Bound - non runner

King's Will Dream ran well for 3rd, Regal Power didn't do much on return.

Dalasan ran well for 2nd - Have suggested horse will not target cup - may target Caulfield Cup or Cox

Raheen House and Big Duke - didn't do much. Big Duke was quite well supported into 5s. But was average.

Angel Of Truth finished the race off well for 2nd. Shared Ambition ran about as well as expected and I thought Sir Charles Road went OK.

Almania - non runner

Verimli ran like a pacer with a very flat tyre in finishing 13th.

[mardigras]

Spanish Mission is down to run tonight in the Listed Chester stakes at Chester. Is short priced favourite, and on past performances should be winning this.

And Snowden runner Carif is resuming at Hawkesbury in the 1500m Rowley Mile. A horse that likely needs to get a few more ratings points to feature in cups.

Edited August 19, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

This is just a bit of friendly advice - take it or leave it.

Often you will see horses in futures markets that on the surface seem good candidates. Pre noms and weights, this can be misleading.

So here is an example (and this horse may well make the field and may well win). But this is more about being aware than saying not to back something.

Schabau - this horse is being quite heavily backed to win the Melbourne Cup. There is a major consideration for me.

1. The horse will be likely weighted on the minimum when weights are released (that is even if it wins on Saturday).

Whilst the horse has qualified for the cup, it simply does not have a high enough rating to make the field (unless something totally bizarre happens).

So to overcome that, the horse is likely to need to achieve one of the following options

a) win one (but more likely two) races that are able to attract a re-handicap for the cup.  One probably won't be suffiicient to get into the race

b) win a ballot exempt race

So for a horse currently around the 26s with bookies and even on betfair around the 30s to 36s (currently you can lay this horse at 36s for A$236 worth, liability around $8500), you are betting that it will achieve either a) or b). There aren't many races that attract a re-handicap and there are few races that are exempt. If it can't win an exempt race and requires two re-handicaps, that's a big ask - one that has not been done often in the past.

 

[mardigras]

20 hours ago, mardigras said:

Spanish Mission is down to run tonight in the Listed Chester stakes at Chester. Is short priced favourite, and on past performances should be winning this.

And Snowden runner Carif is resuming at Hawkesbury in the 1500m Rowley Mile. A horse that likely needs to get a few more ratings points to feature in cups.

As expected, Spanish Mission won pretty easily here. Carif ran OK in what is often the case in Australasia with a horse running over a distance where they are unlikely to be competitive.

[mardigras]

On Saturday at York we have the Ebor. Whilst I expect the fav in Fujaira Prince to go well, for value I'm on Ghostwatch. At 21s, he looks a decent bet to me.

In the cup betting markets, True Self, Deja and Pondus are available. All around the 14 - 20 mark. True Self won the Queen Elizabeth at the tail end of Flemington last year (beating Carif mentioned above). She hasn't been doing much of late, but Mullins is pretty astute so who knows. Williams runner Pondus is an enigma to me. I don't really think he is up to it, but a good performance in this race will bring his odds right down.

Deja - was talked about as definitely coming over. Was being bet around the mid 100s early - but available around the 300s these days for the cups. Not the worst if they come .

A pretty even field to me without any real topliners. Fujaira Prince won at Ascot, but as the favourite - even he is available at 8s.

Edited August 20, 2020 by mardigras

[VC!]

Almania and Collide have been booked, currently they are working on an exemption for a strapper to travel with them, once they have done their two weeks quarantine in Australia I believe they have to enter an Australian  stable Kris Less I believe 

Edited August 20, 2020 by VC!

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, VC! said:

Almania and Collide have been booked, currently they are working on an exemption for a strapper to travel with them, once they have done their two weeks quarantine in Australia I believe they have to enter an Australian  stable Kris Less I believe 

Is this for the flight into Melbourne VC? My info is that only 16 horses can travel on the flight due in around the 3rd October - and they will be ratings based. Almania would likely struggle if he is planned for the same flight, unless no one wants to come. Both of them are very borderline on making either cup unless they win something first.

[VC!]

I’m not sure Mardi I caught the back end of the interview 

Dave Stanley was interviewing one of the Newcastle (NSW) reps yesterday morning 

Im not sure if Australian Bloodstock have purchased these horses? 

[mardigras]

16 minutes ago, VC! said:

I’m not sure Mardi I caught the back end of the interview 

Dave Stanley was interviewing one of the Newcastle (NSW) reps yesterday morning 

Im not sure if Australian Bloodstock have purchased these horses? 

They have Almania for sure. And I heard they were hoping to bring 4 or 5 along with OTI doing similar.

Here's some that may be wanting to travel (of course many may not). 

Dashing Willoughby, Sir Dragonet, Nickajack Cave, Pondus, Master Of Reality, Twilight Payment, Degraves, Prince Of Arran, True Self, Skyward??, Collide, Almania, Get Shirty, San Huberto, Buckhurst, Le Don De Vie, Magic Wand??, Verimli, Spanish Mission, Downdraft, Withhold??, Plumatic and a few other Cox noms I haven't mentioned.

Edited August 20, 2020 by mardigras