Melbourne Spring 2020

[mardigras]

3 hours ago, Stodge said:

Both TINANDALI and ALMANIA have been declared for Saturday's Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton along with last year's MC runner-up PRINCE OF ARRAN.

Obviously, ENABLE is due to run and can't be opposed on all known form.

TINANDALI was a moderate fourth at Windsor on heavy ground on Saturday and while ALMANIA's run behind FUJAIRA PRINCE at Ascot looked very good, I'm not sure he went on from that next time.

Both Tinandali and Almania would have to win in my view to make the Caulfield Cup field. And a non-win would also make getting into the Melbourne Cup problematic, as they would likely need an exempt win beforehand - which pretty much leaves the Lexus stakes on Derby day (as one re-handicap probably won't be enough). I expect that they will get weights on the minimum for both races as things stand.

[mardigras]

https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-01/news-the-list-internationals-set-for-spring#/

A few of who they think are coming to Australia. It appears the Port Guillaume may be heading this way. Has been a bit of a drifter in the Arc as well.

[mardigras]

Enable ran overnight and did a demolition job on them. Prince Of Arran ran OK albeit a long way from Enable for 3rd. Almania isn't up to those I don't think - well not at the moment.

I thought the Feehan was a very weak field. Surprise Baby couldn't beat Humidor and could only just beat Harbour View. Yet they rave about his run. I don't expect the horse would even make the Cox Plate field as it stands.  

[mardigras]

If the Skyward team feel the horse is right for the cups, then in my view they have been gifted every opportunity. Receiving 52.5kg although likely on the cusp, might well be enough. That would be about 1.5kg more than I would have expected given his rating.

[mardigras]

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

If the Skyward team feel the horse is right for the cups, then in my view they have been gifted every opportunity. Receiving 52.5kg although likely on the cusp, might well be enough. That would be about 1.5kg more than I would have expected given his rating.

Having had a closer look at the weights, I'd say Collide was dealt a harsh blow. Weighted below the likes of Pondus with a UK rating many points above it and with a race record probably superior. Although not owned by Williams.

And with Skyward, quite odd that Skyward gets 52.5 and Collide 50.0 even though in Galop France, Collide has a rating 2 points above Skyward.

And taking that a step further, Collide last raced against San Huberto - finished 10+ lengths ahead of San Huberto. San Huberto has an equal rating through Galop France to Collide - gets 53.0 in the cup. Something doesn't add up.

[VC!]

12 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Having had a closer look at the weights, 

Now you’ve had a look at the weights  and who may and may not make the fields, who are your top 5 for the Caulfield and Melbourne cups Mardi?

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, VC! said:

Now you’ve had a look at the weights  and who may and may not make the fields, who are your top 5 for the Caulfield and Melbourne cups Mardi?

Good question VC. I'll refine things and put up my ideas tomorrow. Feel free to do the same and we can see how we fare.

[VC!]

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Good question VC. I'll refine things and put up my ideas tomorrow. Feel free to do the same and we can see how we fare.

Sure

I’ll take a look through both cups and come up with my top 5 for each cup tomorrow 😊

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by VC!

[VC!]

Caulfield Cup

1) Quick Thinker 50-1

2) Master of Wine 17-1

3) Shared Ambition 30-1

4) Finche 20-1

5) The Chosen One 150-1

Melbourne Cup 

1) Russian Camelot 12-1

2) Sir Dragonet 38-1

3) Verry Elleegant 20-1

4) Master of Reality 34-1

5) Stratum 70-1 /Nickjack Cave 23-1

To be honest I haven’t done any trading on either races, just starting to warm to them now, so likely changes to the above lot

 

[mardigras]

24 minutes ago, VC! said:

Caulfield Cup

1) Quick Thinker 50-1

2) Master of Wine 17-1

3) Shared Ambition 30-1

4) Finche 20-1

5) The Chosen One 150-1

Melbourne Cup 

1) Russian Camelot 12-1

2) Sir Dragonet 38-1

3) Verry Elleegant 20-1

4) Master of Reality 34-1

5) Stratum 70-1 /Nickjack Cave 23-1

To be honest I haven’t done any trading on either races, just starting to warm to them now, so likely changes to the above lot

 

Nice odds The Chosen One Caulfield Cup. Haven't seen odds like that.

[VC!]

11 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Nice odds The Chosen One Caulfield Cup. Haven't seen odds like that.

 

[mardigras]

Pretty nice in my view. Runner has been backed at the high 30s to under 100s on Betfair.

As for Barade shown in the graphic. Someone s taking the piss moving that from 301 to 201.

[mardigras]

On 8/20/2020 at 7:27 PM, mardigras said:

This is just a bit of friendly advice - take it or leave it.

Often you will see horses in futures markets that on the surface seem good candidates. Pre noms and weights, this can be misleading.

So here is an example (and this horse may well make the field and may well win). But this is more about being aware than saying not to back something.

Schabau - this horse is being quite heavily backed to win the Melbourne Cup. There is a major consideration for me.

1. The horse will be likely weighted on the minimum when weights are released (that is even if it wins on Saturday).

Whilst the horse has qualified for the cup, it simply does not have a high enough rating to make the field (unless something totally bizarre happens).

So to overcome that, the horse is likely to need to achieve one of the following options

a) win one (but more likely two) races that are able to attract a re-handicap for the cup.  One probably won't be suffiicient to get into the race

b) win a ballot exempt race

So for a horse currently around the 26s with bookies and even on betfair around the 30s to 36s (currently you can lay this horse at 36s for A$236 worth, liability around $8500), you are betting that it will achieve either a) or b). There aren't many races that attract a re-handicap and there are few races that are exempt. If it can't win an exempt race and requires two re-handicaps, that's a big ask - one that has not been done often in the past.

 

Schabau actually got weighted 0.5kg above the minimum. Pretty lucky to get that. Their plan is to try and win the Bart Cummings from what I know. Without that, he is probably close to a no-show.

[mardigras]

8 hours ago, VC! said:

Caulfield Cup

1) Quick Thinker 50-1

2) Master of Wine 17-1

3) Shared Ambition 30-1

4) Finche 20-1

5) The Chosen One 150-1

Melbourne Cup 

1) Russian Camelot 12-1

2) Sir Dragonet 38-1

3) Verry Elleegant 20-1

4) Master of Reality 34-1

5) Stratum 70-1 /Nickjack Cave 23-1

To be honest I haven’t done any trading on either races, just starting to warm to them now, so likely changes to the above lot

 

Here's me at the moment - but may change once the Aidan O'Brien travelers are known.

Caulfield Cup

Mirage Dancer 51
Miss Siska 101
Toffee Tongue 51
Port Guillaume 21/Delphi 21 (40s available)
Finche if those two above are not in

The last two foreigners may not come over/make the field. Delphi got a very low weight for a G3 and Listed winner compared to many above.

Melbourne Cup

Nancho 51
Ashrun 17 (30s available)
Masaff 201
Stratum 51
The Chosen One 101

I like Miss Siska most in the CC, and hope Masaff can win Metrop, although may not be enough to make field. 

[Stodge]

PORT GUILLAUME goes in the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday against the English Derby winner SERPENTINE. I think he's the one in this field - the Hocquart win was impressive.

Any thoughts on the Irish Leger field? TWILIGHT PAYMENT is favourite but I half fancy the 2019 winner SEARCH FOR A STAR who looked to be coming back to form last time.

[mardigras]

3 hours ago, Stodge said:

PORT GUILLAUME goes in the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday against the English Derby winner SERPENTINE. I think he's the one in this field - the Hocquart win was impressive.

Any thoughts on the Irish Leger field? TWILIGHT PAYMENT is favourite but I half fancy the 2019 winner SEARCH FOR A STAR who looked to be coming back to form last time.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Port Guillaume might come to Oz even if he wins this. The Arc appeals, but they have had to commit to a flight to Oz, and I think that means, if they pull out, they still have to front with the dosh. A very interesting runner should that happen. I know the horse has the potential to win plenty, so the fare may not be enough to stop them from going to the Arc, but with Australian owners, the lure of the cup may be too great (wrongly in my view as the Arc is about the pinnacle to me).

On the Irish St Leger, I couldn't go near Twilight Payment at the odds. He is (and has been) available for the cup at 110-150 for a while now. Massively longer than Master Of Reality (possibly because of last year), even though TP smashed him when they last met. Search For A Song is better value to me also than him.

But I am favouring Micro Manage at low 8s. Sovereign is also very interesting but will likely be a little short. Could he be sent to Oz?

I see they had held an entry for Pondus but not accepted. I don't see him anywhere else as I read the plan was either the St Leger or another race in France the same day. He isn't in anywhere in France that I could see - a horse I think is over-rated - yet one they are still backing in the cup. With 51kg, he will likely have to win the Lexus on Derby day to have a chance of making the field.

[mardigras]

The Chosen One was fair cruising into the straight. Hope he can go on with it. And VC/I both have him having a very good preparation.

[mardigras]

I must have missed something. I didn't think Russian Camelot was very good. Wasn't bad either. Just did very little to me. Slow run race, very little sprint. A bit like Vow And Declare in the cup last year. I wouldn't take much out of the race, Master Of Wine as good as any. 

[mardigras]

What a great race between the mighty Magical and Ghaiyyath - with Magical coming out on top. She is probably off to a race on Arc day.

Armory ran very well and holds noms for the cups.

Also, Tiger Moth ran out an easy winner of the G3 at Leopardstown. Aidan has suggested he could go into quarantine for a trip to Oz. Cormorant didn't go too bad. Buckhurst was not really sighted and Patrick Sarsfield faded.

In the St Leger at Doncaster, the well backed Galileo Chrome won out in a tight tussle. Santiago, the derby winner, could only muster 4th, but wasn't far off them. Dawn Patrol was never in it, although ran fair.

Edited September 12, 2020 by mardigras

[mardigras]

Based on betting, something has happened with Delphi - maybe injured, maybe not transferring, not sure.

[Midnight Caller]

Two great cards at The Curragh and Longchamp today.PJ,you will get a good line on Skyward from that Grp 2 event  in Paris!

[mardigras]

On 9/12/2020 at 5:37 AM, Stodge said:

PORT GUILLAUME goes in the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday against the English Derby winner SERPENTINE. I think he's the one in this field - the Hocquart win was impressive.

Any thoughts on the Irish Leger field? TWILIGHT PAYMENT is favourite but I half fancy the 2019 winner SEARCH FOR A STAR who looked to be coming back to form last time.

Nicely done there Stodge. 

[mardigras]

Williams has suggested Master Of Reality, Twilight Payment, Buckhurst and Pondus will be heading to Oz.

[VC!]

Things are starting to take shape

Tiger Moth received a 2.5kg penalty, 

AvD top weight looks like he’ll make the trip, defeated Stradivarius that’s a good form line

I see Charlton has one of his staff arriving tonight Mullins has a couple of staff ready to fly out and O’Brien has 5 or 6 staff ready to go

[mardigras]

54 minutes ago, VC! said:

Things are starting to take shape

Tiger Moth received a 2.5kg penalty, 

AvD top weight looks like he’ll make the trip, defeated Stradivarius that’s a good form line

I see Charlton has one of his staff arriving tonight Mullins has a couple of staff ready to fly out and O’Brien has 5 or 6 staff ready to go

I think it raises a few questions over the way Carpenter handicaps. With a horse winning a G3 (with a G1 placing), now being assured a start at about 12th in order. A lot of G1 winners below him in order. He often treats some UK form as if it is golden, yet some other is not. If they still come, he could start the fav.