Melbourne Spring 2020

[mardigras]

.

@Blood1971

has announced the Aidan O'Brien horses that will go into quarantine:

- ANTHONY VAN DYCK - Caul & Melb Cup

- TIGER MOTH - Melb Cup

- MAGIC WAND - Cox Plate & Mackinnon Stks

- ARMORY - Cox Plate & Mackinnon Stks

- WICHITA - Cantala Stks

- SANTIAGO - Melb Cup

[Stodge]

I'd been waiting for TIGER MOTH since I backed him in the Irish Derby (which he nearly won).

They put him in a Group 3 at Leopardstown (interesting, not a million miles from Flemington in configuration) and he hosed up but as a Group 1 placed horse in a Group 3 you'd expect that and SANTIAGO hated the ground at Doncaster so I'd worry if it was quick at Flemington but if it came up soft you'd have him on a short list.

TIGER MOTH is much more lightly raced and you'd question how we would cope with the hustle and bustle of the big race.

[mardigras]

23 hours ago, Stodge said:

 

TIGER MOTH is much more lightly raced and you'd question how we would cope with the hustle and bustle of the big race.

Won't have to put up with the pressure from the crowd noise though.

[Stodge]

Finally caught up with last Sunday's racing.

TWILIGHT PAYMENT ran okay in the Irish Leger - he's 40/1 up here for the Cup and the same price as BUCKHURST.

Current betting here has SURPRISE BABY as 8/1 favourite with RUSSIAN CAMELOT at 9s. 

I thought SANTIAGO finished weakly in the Leger and Dettori said after the race he didn't enjoy the quick turf so I couldn't have him unless it was really slow. ANTHONY VAN DYCK won the Foy which was run as a typical French race so they dawdled and sprinted off the turn and to be fair he battled on really strongly but would be vulnerable to a speed performer.

I'd be surprised if MASTER OF REALITY was anywhere near good enough - PORT GUILLAUME ran a shocker in the Grand Prix de Paris and SIR DRAGONET always seems to find one to beat him which is okay when that's MAGICAL or ENABLE but he's lost some lesser races which he should have won.

Of the others, PRINCE OF ARRAN had a nice run round Kempton the other day and must have a shout - DASHING WILLOUGHBY's Sandown win looked even better when SPANISH MISSION trotted up in the Doncaster Cup last Friday week but he was moderate behind ENBIHAAR in the Lonsdale and I need convincing.

I think SOVEREIGN and TELECASTER are already non-runners and while I like TIGER MOTH, will he get in? 

It doesn't look a strong European challenge on paper at this stage.

 

[mardigras]

Tiger Moth is easily in. 12th in order after a 2.5kg penalty for G3 win. Something unheard of to me.

[Stodge]

10 hours ago, mardigras said:

Tiger Moth is easily in. 12th in order after a 2.5kg penalty for G3 win. Something unheard of to me.

Sorry, you'll have to explain that.

After REWILDING and CROSS COUNTER, wasn't something put in place to ensure really good European 3-y-os didn't get in with feather weights against handicappers?

[mardigras]

6 hours ago, Stodge said:

Sorry, you'll have to explain that.

After REWILDING and CROSS COUNTER, wasn't something put in place to ensure really good European 3-y-os didn't get in with feather weights against handicappers?

They made a minor change, but they still require less weight to get in due to the calc being the difference between WFA and allocated weight (for most).

Tiger Moth would likely have struggled to make the field initially, but a 2.5kg penalty is huge and took him right up the order of entry.

[Midnight Caller]

Walker piloting Dashing  Willoughby in the cups.

PJ, very good run in decent company by Skyward!Is he still coming down under?

[Stodge]

4 hours ago, Midnight Caller said:

Walker piloting Dashing  Willoughby in the cups.

PJ, very good run in decent company by Skyward!Is he still coming down under?

I wouldn't get too excited about the SKYWARD run in the Foy. They dawdled, sprinted off the home turn and finished in a heap - the race was 6 seconds slower than the Grand Prix de Paris and 4 seconds off the Vermeille so I have my doubts.

Having reviewed the Arc Trials, I was a bit harsh on STRADIVARIUS for whom the race was far from ideal. Given a stronger gallop and slower ground he'd have place chances in the Arc.

ANTHONY VAN DYCK has been backed from 33s to 16s for the MC.

[Midnight Caller]

1 hour ago, Stodge said:

I wouldn't get too excited about the SKYWARD run in the Foy. They dawdled, sprinted off the home turn and finished in a heap - the race was 6 seconds slower than the Grand Prix de Paris and 4 seconds off the Vermeille so I have my doubts.

Having reviewed the Arc Trials, I was a bit harsh on STRADIVARIUS for whom the race was far from ideal. Given a stronger gallop and slower ground he'd have place chances in the Arc.

ANTHONY VAN DYCK has been backed from 33s to 16s for the MC.

It is pretty much what you would expect in France! Slow pace and sprinting from the 3 furlong pole.I wouldn't  be concerned about time,as those in the race have bigger targets! My thoughts were based on that the race was not run to suit his style, and to be within 2- 2 1/2 lengths of the first two(who are pretty handy)was commendable. 

 

 

Edited September 21, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[Stodge]

I'll get to the very short review of last weekend presently but a heads up for the weekend ahead and there's a 3-day meeting at Newmarket starting on Thursday. This is the first of a series of Newmarket Saturday cards through the Autumn run on the Rowley Mile. 

We've had a real Indian Summer in recent days and the ground is currently Good to Firm but it's due to turn much colder and more unsettled from Wednesday so we'll see where we are by the end of the week.

The quality builds through the meeting and on Friday there are a pair of Group 2 events. Seven have been entered for the Rockfel over 1400m for the juvenile fillies. MONDAY comes over from the Aidan O'Brien yard having won a Listed at Leopardstown last time. ISABELLA GILES won a Group 3 by seven lengths at Goodwood last time but that was on soft ground and SANTOSHA needs to bounce back from a dismal effort in the Lowther. HAPPY ROMANCE picked up sales races at Newbury and York before winning a Group 3 at Salisbury last time and in a sub-standard renewal, she looks most interesting.

The Joel for the older milers has 19 entries and looks a really strong race. BENBATL will love the fast ground and won this last year slamming the useful KING OF COMEDY by five lengths. He meets another Qatar-owned rival in 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO who hasn't really gone on from the June classic win. In his last three he's finished fourth in the Derby, Sussex and Juddmonte International so you can't say he's not been keeping good company.

TILSIT won in controversial circumstances at Goodwood but is clearly on the upgrade while it's interesting to see GLOBAL GIANT come back to 1600m from 2000m though his form behind EXTRA ELUSIVE wasn't franked by the latter on Saturday.

Saturday sees three Group races for the juveniles - the Group 2 Royal Lodge over 1600m for the colts and the 1200m Group 1 championship races - the Cheveley Park for the fillies and the Middle Park for the colts. 

[VC!]

On 9/15/2020 at 9:32 AM, mardigras said:

 

- TIGER MOTH - Melb Cup

- SANTIAGO - Melb Cup

Santiago I believe he is nominated for the Caulfield Cup as well, and I think this could be his type of race, to me he looks more suited to the 2400 mtrs the 3200 mtrs of the MC might just see him out, also I reckon he may just like a bit of cut in the ground, I’d be keen to back him in the Caulfield Cup

Tiger Moth only 4 starts, but he looks to have a turn off foot, this is what’s required to win a Melbourne Cup, and I think he’s got it, I think you need to trust the horses ability not the number of starts he’s had, let’s remember So You Think won the Cox Plate at his 5th start, Rekindling and Cross Counter won at their 10th and 8th starts respectively.

European 3 year olds as we call them down here have to be respected.

I think Tiger Moth is a massive chance in the Melbourne Cup 

Edited September 21, 2020 by VC!

[mardigras]

4 hours ago, VC! said:

European 3 year olds as we call them down here have to be respected.

I think Tiger Moth is a massive chance in the Melbourne Cup 

I like Anthony Van Dyck for the Caulfield Cup if he comes over.

As for Tiger Moth, I'm not worried about his starts, I'm more concerned with his ability at this stage. His price is far too short for me to entertain him. I'd have him at around 30s.

[VC!]

Ballot exemption races (yet to run)

Bart Cummings October 3rd

Caulfield Cup October 17th

Cox Plate October 24th

Lexus October 31st

[Stodge]

21 hours ago, VC! said:

Santiago I believe he is nominated for the Caulfield Cup as well, and I think this could be his type of race, to me he looks more suited to the 2400 mtrs the 3200 mtrs of the MC might just see him out, also I reckon he may just like a bit of cut in the ground, I’d be keen to back him in the Caulfield Cup

Tiger Moth only 4 starts, but he looks to have a turn off foot, this is what’s required to win a Melbourne Cup, and I think he’s got it, I think you need to trust the horses ability not the number of starts he’s had, let’s remember So You Think won the Cox Plate at his 5th start, Rekindling and Cross Counter won at their 10th and 8th starts respectively.

European 3 year olds as we call them down here have to be respected.

I think Tiger Moth is a massive chance in the Melbourne Cup 

I think you have this about right. SANTIAGO needs slower ground to perform - at Ascot he got 2800m really well and Goodwood suggested he stayed 3200m but he was up against the class act that is STRADIVARIUS.

SANTIAGO beat TIGER MOTH in the Irish Derby by a head so on weights there should be nothing in it.

I'd be more worried about TIGER MOTH over the trip - he's by Galileo but the dam raced over 1200m and the full brothers only went a mile in Ireland. We know he gets 2400m but will he get the full MC trip?

[VC!]

10 hours ago, Stodge said:

I think you have this about right. SANTIAGO needs slower ground to perform - at Ascot he got 2800m really well and Goodwood suggested he stayed 3200m but he was up against the class act that is STRADIVARIUS.

SANTIAGO beat TIGER MOTH in the Irish Derby by a head so on weights there should be nothing in it.

I'd be more worried about TIGER MOTH over the trip - he's by Galileo but the dam raced over 1200m and the full brothers only went a mile in Ireland. We know he gets 2400m but will he get the full MC trip?

That’s a valid point about the dam side

I guess I will have to trust Aidan’s judgement, 

To win the cup you need a turn of foot, maybe Tiger Moth gets his staying ability from his Dad and that turnoff foot from his Mum, his head 2nd to Santiago at only his 3rd start suggested he had plenty of improvement and when he won his group 3 at his 4th start over the 2400 showed he was a bit push button, he looked to be going away from his rivals, pretty much untouched, not sure on the quality he beat, but the way he won suggested he’d get further

Currently I couldn’t back him at his current quote, too much water to travel under the bridge yet, but if he comes down under with no issues I could take 15s 2 weeks out from the cup

Santiago looks to have a turn of foot for about 200 metres then one paced he would need to be held up and held up for one last crack at them in the MC

Stradivarius is the “A” grade form and had it been a little bit further I think Tiger Moth beats Santiago  taking a form line through Santiago 3rd to Stradivarius I think Tiger Moth is right in it

Master of Reality had that form line behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee and ran 2nd in the Cup before being relegated

 

 

Edited September 23, 2020 by VC!

[mardigras]

Punters make this business too easy if they take what the likes of the TAB offer for horses like Saracen Knight.

Wins yesterday and Tabcorp slash his odds to 33-1. No rehandicap, hasn't even qualified. A horse now rated 80. 

Likely has to win the Lexus as only possible chance to make cup. And may do all of that, but taking 33-1 to do that and win the cup is just giving money away.

[pete]

4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Punters make this business too easy if they take what the likes of the TAB offer for horses like Saracen Knight.

Wins yesterday and Tabcorp slash his odds to 33-1. No rehandicap, hasn't even qualified. A horse now rated 80. 

Likely has to win the Lexus as only possible chance to make cup. And may do all of that, but taking 33-1 to do that and win the cup is just giving money away.

What did you think of Russian Camelot yesterday Marty?

I've watched the replay a few times but I'm still a little underwhelmed.

Is he another hype horse?

[Hesi]

It was a very poor G1 field he beat

[mardigras]

Just now, pete said:

What did you think of Russian Camelot yesterday Marty?

I've watched the replay a few times but I'm still a little underwhelmed.

Is he another hype horse?

I'm underwhelmed also. I haven't assessed the actual performance metrics yet - but I don't think I'd be taking the short odds around him for either the Cox or the Cup.

[pete]

I missed the race live and read a report before I saw the race and was expecting him to explode away from them but he didn't really do that at all.

[Hesi]

 

[mardigras]

19 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Been wrong many times before but I think he will win the Cox Plate.

May well do - as it looks a very weak field. I wouldn't be taking mid 3s for him myself.

And sitting parked was in his best interest by a mile in my view. He doesn't show a strong turn of foot to me. Looks quite dour.

[mardigras]

94 remain in the cup.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-09-29-melbourne-cup-1st-acceptances.pdf?la=en

I see our old friend Constantinople isn't there. I hope Thomass hasn't lost his shirt.

After all those gear changes, amazing to see - gone for a spell. As Thomass said, the gear messes with their heads and it certainly messed with his.

A horse that was unplaced in the UK at his first start. Never again unplaced there. A bunch of gear tried, and never managed top 3 in Oz, even though fav or close in Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Including 16 of 16 runners last start. 

Got to love that gear!

[Stodge]

On 9/29/2020 at 7:03 AM, mardigras said:

94 remain in the cup.

https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2020-rv/the-sport/files/2020-09-29-melbourne-cup-1st-acceptances.pdf?la=en

Of the 12 Overseas challengers, only two from the UK - DASHING WILLOUGHBY and PRINCE OF ARAN but still a good number left from Aidan and Joseph O'Brien.