News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[Stodge]

Wednesday's Ascot card looks very weak to this observer thanks to the shunting of races up and down the week.

There's a Listed and a Group 3 but the sole Group 1 is the Prince of Wales Stakes over 2000m.

Just 7 stand for this prize which has been slashed to just £148k - last year's had a first prize of £425k.

Joint top rated are JAPAN and ADDEYBB. The latter will be well known to Antipodeans as the winner of the Ranvet and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at the Randwick autumn carnival. The key to him is the ground - the softer the better and he was very good at the meeting last year in the Wolferton when he beat MAGIC WAND two and a half lengths (and she's no mug) but the ground was soft then and it's good now. Showers are forecast and if Ascot catches a storm it can soften very quickly but that's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes for a betting strategy.

JAPAN was once thought a Derby prospect and was, I think, favourite or near favourite at one time but after a poor run in the Dante at York he ran a fine third at Epsom beaten less than a length. He came back to Ascot and won the King Edward VII convincingly and followed up in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Juddmonte International before running fourth to Waldgeist in the Arc. That's serious form and a stiff 2000m should be ideal - my worry is he needed a run last year but Aidan's older horses seem forward enough so he must have a huge chance.

BARNEY ROY is now a 6-y-o but was very good in his younger days before proving, shall we say, less than adequate at stud. He's run well since returning to racing but he's by my reckoning 7 lbs below his 3-y-o form. On that form he'd be right in this but as a wise man once said that was then but this is now.

LORD NORTH is improving all the time and won the Brigadier Gerard at Haydock defeating ELARQAM but that still looks a couple of notches below this level.

HEADMAN is very interesting - he was a handicapper last spring but improved rapidly winning two French Group 2 races before a fine fifth in the Irish Champion. He'll need a lot more in this company but his trainer Roger Charlton has always thought a lot of him and IF ADDEYBB can't cope with the ground and JAPAN isn't fully fit he's the obvious one to step up.

It's not a punting race for me - I'd lay ADDEYBB if the ground is good or faster but chances are connections will take him out. IF it does turn soft, he becomes an obvious and serious contender

[mardigras]

7 hours ago, Stodge said:

She bolted up didn't she?

Where will they go with her? I imagine the plan is to campaign her at 2000m - will she come to the Eclipse and take on ENABLE? Races like the Juddmonte and the Irish Champion must be tempting though LOVE may be a real thorn in her side though the latter could be kept at 2400m if she wins the English Oaks.

I expect they will keep her to more of the 2000m races as you suggest. Will they take her away again for another Cox/Mackinnon? She showed her class last year, I'm just not so sure they will campaign her on Oz again this year.

She's just so consistent, she is an awesome mare.

[Stodge]

Final declarations are through for Thursday at Ascot and with this year's quality races stacked on the first and last days, the middle days look a bit exposed and weak by comparison.

The Gold Cup remains the highlight of the meeting for many and along with the Cadran later on are the two extreme staying races in Europe. 

4000m is a long way for most flat gallopers these days and only 8 go to post for this year's renewal.

It's very hard to look beyond STRADIVARIUS bidding for his third win in the race. His run at Newmarket the other day over 2400m was perfectly respectable and we know the extra 1600m will be no issue. He's beaten CROSS COUNTER who once won a fair race at Flemington the last twice they've met though there was only a couple of lengths in it in this race last year. 

TECHNICIAN loves soft ground which he looks unlikely to get but one who will love a better surface is MOONLIGHT SPIRIT and he was very good in the Lutece last year. I think he'll reverse Chaudenay places with TECHNICIAN.

I love these 8 runner races with a short priced favourite from a punting perspective and while I'm very tempted to side with MOONLIGHT SPIRIT, NAYEF ROAD at 16s looks the value bet. He won the Sagaro at Newcastle the other day and was third in the Leger on quick ground. He came home well up the long Doncaster straight and as he showed with DEE EX BEE, Johnston is very good with these decent staying types.

[Stodge]

Looking ahead to Friday and a better card in terms of quality than tomorrow or Thursday.

The Group 1 race is the Commonwealth Cup for the 3-y-o over 1200m. It's a fairly new race but has quickly established itself as a proper championship event. 17 go to post and it looks wide open. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ makes a quick re-appearance after running third in the Irish 2000 Guineas last Friday. MILLISLE comes from her seventh place in the 1000 Guineas and I think she has a big chance.

PIERRE LAPIN is favourite and he was unbeaten in two runs as a juvenile winning the Group 2 Mill Reef at Newbury on his second start. It's been a long layoff but he looked all speed last year. Wesley Ward brings back last year's Queen Mary runner up KIMARI and he did it well at Oaklawn back in April but  I prefer GOLDEN HORDE who kept the best of company as a juvenile including a win in the Richmond at Goodwood followed by two defeats to EARTHLIGHT, third in the Morny and second in the Middle Park. That's solid Group 1 form and at 11/2 he looks a tempting bet.

The supporting Group 2 races start with the Norfolk Stakes over 1000m for the juvenile colts. 12 got to post and with the truncated start to the season there's much less form on which to rely than would normally be the case. EYE OF HEAVEN won at Newmarket and is favourite but THE LIR JET looked very good albeit in a probably weaker heat at Yarmouth. I've not been as taken by Wesley Ward's juveniles this season and GOLDEN JET looks vulnerable on his debut second over 900m on the Dirt. LIPPIZANER has placed twice for Aidan O'Brien and also has claims.  This isn't a race in which to get too heavily involved in my view.

The Hardwicke Stakes over 2400m is one of my favourite races of the meeting. It's basically Ascot;s equivalent of the Coronation Cup at Epsom's Derby meeting and is the stepping stone for the older horses toward the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes later in July. 11 go to post but it looks down to the three top rated. ANTHONY VAN DYCK won the Derby last year but it would be fair to say he wasn't one of the best winners of that race. That said, he put up a decent effort in second behind GHAIYYATH in the Coronation Cup at Newmarket. He won't mind the trip but it's 400m further for ELARQAM who was runner up in the Brigadier Gerard at Haydock the other day. DEFOE hated the firm ground at Newmarket and of course won this last year so I think he could be the one at 6s.

The Queen's Vase over 2800m is another race which has had a few changes in recent times. It used to be over 3200m but that was considered too far tooearly for the 3-y-o and the cut in trip has brought the quality level up as well - KEW GARDENS won it in 2018. It's basically an early Leger trial. 9 go to post and I have to say it looks a very tricky puzzle. I thought BERKSHIRE ROCCO ran a huge race in defeat behind ENGLISH KING at Lingfield and he was (and is) one of my ideas of a Derby outsider. Al DABARAN represents Godolphin - he had some form in Group 3 races in France last year but that was on soft ground. The interesting runner is SANTIAGO from the Ballydoyle yard - he won a small maiden at Listowel having been beaten at Galway by ALPINE STAR, a filly of Jessica Harrington's I'm looking forward to seeing.

 

[Stodge]

One of these days I'll actually do some reviews of the racing.

I haven't even covered last weekend but that's the problem with this week - it's the best racing of the year and it comes at you thick and fast.

We've got the final declarations for Saturday and the Royal meeting builds to a strong climax with an 8-race card featuring three Group 1 and two Group 2 races.

The St James's Palace Stakes is over 1600m on the Round course for the 3-y-o. It's one of the two obvious options for the Newmarket Guineas winner - the other is the Irish 2000 Guineas which would normally be at the end of May. From here, the 3-y-o milers have to mix it with the older horses in races like the Sussex, the Moulin and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Another option is to move up to 2000m for the Eclipse.

Just 7 go to post and with Newmarket winner KAMEKO heading for the Derby, it's left to the placed horses, WICHITA and PINATUBO to confirm the Rowley Mile running. WICHITA ran a blinder at Newmarket and I thought he was coming back at KAMEKO at the post. As for PINATUBO, I wasn't convinced he saw out the 1600m at Newmarket but the round course will help for all it is an uphill finish. PINATUBO reminds me of TOO DARN HOT in that I don't think he quite gets a true run mile on a stiff track. He might be fine at Goodwood in the Sussex but I have my doubts here.

John Gosden runs PALACE PIER but for all he looked impressive at Newcastle that was a handicap and this is a Group 1 so 4/1 looks absurd. If there were the "dead 8" runners I'd be very keen on POSITIVE who beat KAMEKO in the Solario before getting bogged down in the Dewhurst.

The Coronation Stakes is the fillies' equivalent of the above race and is often contested by the winners of the English, French and Irish 1000 Guineas. Again, just 7 got to post but this looks a trappy heat. Once again we have the second and third from Newmarket in the forms of CLOAK OF SPIRITS and QUADRILATERAL but both were readily held by LOVE and I'm left to ask just hoe strong the placed form is. RUN WILD was a hugely impressive winner of the Pretty Polly over 2000m so she won't be stopping and the stiff mile will help but it's a jump from Listed to Group 1 for her. 

What makes this race really interesting is the presence of the American filly SHARING who won the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the Breeders Cup and warmed up for this with a win at Churchill Downs. The problem for her is going to be the underfoot conditions - were we on summer fast ground I'd fancy her but on slower turf I'm less convinced.

I've been waiting for ALPINE STAR and I'll confess I've backed her at 7s for this. She ran three times as a juvenile and while only third to LOVE on debut she ended up winning the Group 2 Debutante Stakes. Dettori is on board and I think she's the solution to this puzzle.

Interesting to see for all the fanfare and perhaps because of the drastic prize money reductions, all the Group 1 fields this week have struggled and just 10 go in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes over 1200m. SCEPTICAL is favourite having won in style on both her seasonal bow and her first ever run on grass at Naas. Will the ground work for her - we'll see. HELLO YOUMZAIN was third in the Commonwealth Cup last year and won the Sprint Trophy at Haydock but while he copes with slow ground the heavy ground on Champions Day was too much. He has claims.

ONE MASTER would want a lot more rain and at a price I fancy DREAM OF DREAMS who was second in this last year and wasn't beaten far in the July Cup before flopping on soft ground at Haydock and Ascot in the autumn. I think he's one to catch fresh and on a reasonable surface and at 8s he's an each way price.

The supporting Group 2 races are headed by the Queen Mary Stakes for the juvenile fillies over 1000m. 20 got to post but there's virtually no form for while they've all had a run, 17 of the 20 have only had one run. MORE BEAUTIFUL represents Ballydoyle and they don't often go in first time but she looked very good at Naas the other day. However, Wesley Ward brings over CAMPANELLE who bolted up at Gulfstream at the end of last month. SACRED represents John Gosden and looked perfectly good at Newmarket a fortnight ago.

It's not a punting race for me with no paddock inspection possible but I hope we see a really trappy filly come out of the race.

The Coventry Stakes over 1200m is a significant race in the pattern for the juvenile colts starting them on a road which might end up at the Middle Park or the Dewhurst. Some great horses have won this down the years but this year's renewal is a real guessing game. 16 got to post - all have run just the once. Nine won on debut, four were second or third and just three unplaced. All the top stables are represented - ADMIRAL NELSON runs for Ballydoyle while Mark Johnston saddles QAADER. Marginal preference is for Godolphin's CREATIVE FORCE for whom the dogs were barking before his debut win at Newmarket a fortnight ago.

The other three races are the Wokingham Handicap over 1200m, a consolation race for those balloted out of the Wokingham also over 1200m and the anachronism that is the Queen Alexandra Stakes, at 4350m the longest race of the British season and possibly the longest flat race run in Europe and quite a few other places as well. Like the Ascot Stakes on Day 1, it tends to attract interest from the jumping fraternity.

 

 

[Midnight Caller]

Thanks Stodge, nice review.

[Stodge]

31 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said:

Thanks Stodge, nice review.

I think of it more as a preview or my thoughts before the race with an insight into how my "book" is against that of the odds makers. 

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, Stodge said:

The other three races are the Wokingham Handicap over 1200m, a consolation race for those balloted out of the Wokingham also over 1200m and the anachronism that is the Queen Alexandra Stakes, at 4350m the longest race of the British season and possibly the longest flat race run in Europe and quite a few other places as well. Like the Ascot Stakes on Day 1, it tends to attract interest from the jumping fraternity.

Yes, a very long flat race. Australia (not in Europe I know), run a race called the Jericho Cup at Warrnambool - run over 4600m each year.

[Stodge]

Right, at long last, review time.

Now, I don't give a chapter and verse account of the race. Most top races are on Youtube if they aren't shown on Trackside so I'll add the URL to the commentary on the race and you can view it for yourself.

Plenty to cover from last weekend's action in Ireland and France starting on the windswept Curragh:

Irish Guineas Meeting:

The two-day fixture last Friday and Saturday was run three weeks later than usual and since it was only a week after the English Guineas meeting, there wasn't any collateral form with which to work.

The ground was watered Good to Firm.

The 2000 Guineas went to SISKIN who in the end saw the trip out without any problems and had too much speed at the critical point 300m out when Colin Keane committed. It was a messy race and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ hung right under pressure and did most of hos stable mates no favours. ARMORY was one of the main sufferers and I rate him better than this performance. VATICAN CITY ran very well in second and is another whose performance can be upgraded.

It seems SISKIN will come to England for the Sussex at Goodwood at the end of July. The course will suit and he's likely to get decent ground.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8USvHrGug44

The supporting Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes saw FLEETING comprehensively defeated by LEO DE FURY from the Jessica Harrington stable. The winner had placed in Group 2 and Group 3 races as a 3-y-o and looks a prime example of a horse coming to hand later in its career. 

Saturday's 1000 Guineas saw a resumption of "normal" service with PEACEFUL winning for Michael Tabor and Aidan O'Brien and leading home a remarkable 1-2-3 for the owner with Donnacha O'Brien's first classic runner FANCY BLUE in second and Aidan's SO WONDERFUL in third. The winner was always close to the pace but it was a bit of a bunch finish and I'm to be convinced the 3-y-o fillies in either England or Ireland (with the exception of LOVE) are much good. 

ALBIGNA just didn't get home and I wonder if she'll go back sprinting. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_BqxFqr9ZU

Chantilly Sunday - Ganay and Saint-Alary:

Sunday saw a couple of decent Group 1 races at Chantilly on ground that was Good to Soft.

The Ganay over 2000m is usually the first French Group 1 and a chance for the previous year's classic generation to establish the pecking order on the long journey to the Arc.Returning to the scene of his Jockey Club win, SOTTSASS put up a gutsy display to hold the persistent challenge of WAY TO PARIS. The winner had clearly needed his outing in the Harcourt. I imagine the long term aim is the Arc but I'd love to see SOTTSASS in England. 

That said, WAY TO PARIS showed he had improved when winning the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly and I strongly suspect he'll also be in the Arc field in October.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omw_q3r3QFs (in French but I'm sure you'll all be fine)

The Saint Alary is a key race for the 3-y-o fillies and is normally the bridge between the Pouliches and the Diane. 

TAWKEEL was hugely impressive coming home by five lengths with the well-backed SOLSTICIA only third. This was the winner's first run on grass after three races on the artificial surfaces and she was a revelation. Breeding suggests 2000m is her trip and I imagine the Diane is the next stop ad on this evidence it's going to take a good one to stop her.

Didn't mean to embed the video and I don't know how to get rid of it.

The Group 2 Vicomtesse Vigier saw top French stayer CALL THE WIND turned over by SAN HUBERTO who got a peach of a ride from Pierre Charles Boudot.

 

[mardigras]

1 hour ago, Stodge said:

The Group 2 Vicomtesse Vigier saw top French stayer CALL THE WIND turned over by SAN HUBERTO who got a peach of a ride from Pierre Charles Boudot.

Another OTI owned horse that may well end up in Australia for the cups.

[Stodge]

OK, here we go with the start of the Royal Ascot reviews and I'll be lacking in originality and start with the opening day:

The first of the Group 1 races was the Queen Anne Stakes and this produced a thrilling finish between the top two in the betting - CIRCUS MAXIMUS and TEREBELLUM. Despite the advantage of race fitness, TEREBELLUM just failed and Ryan Moore struck the first Group 1 win for Ballydoyle holding on by a head. The two were three lengths clear of the others though it's fair to say if and when you watch the race you'll see plenty of hard luck stories as the field got stacked up approaching the final 400m. MOBAATHER was stuck out the back and could never get involved and finished seventh while I noted ROSEMAN, past winner ACCIDENTAL AGENT and SKARDU all making good late headway.

CIRCUS MAXIMUS is a very good horse and enjoys the stiff mile tracks. Whether they'll run him in the Sussex I don't know but that would seem logical. As to whether he might get an easy 2000m at perhaps Leopardstown for the Irish Champion, that's the thought I have. TEREBELLUM ran a huge race in defeat and I suspect the plan will be to send her to the fillies and mares race such as the Falmouth and the Rothschild.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRE0zcj0CAE

The other Group 1 on the card was the King's Stand Stakes over 1000m for which BATTAASH went off the slightly uneasy favourite but in the end everything went smoothly. He had the big advantage of being drawn toward the favoured stands side rail (high numbers) and while he might have appreciated a lead, jockey Jim Crowley was able to use his stride and when he asked 300m down there was plenty left and he strode away to win by just over two lengths. EQUILATERAL made it a 1-2 for trainer Charlie Hills with the well punted LIBERTY BEACH running well in third and TIZ MARVELLOUS going into the notebook at a huge price in fourth.

The plan is to go to the King George Stakes at Goodwood followed by the Nunthorpe. I sense the Abbaye may be swerved in favour of a tilt at the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. BATTAASH has lost some of his youthful exuberance and seems much more tractable these days. To be fair, take out Blue Point and we'd be hailing him as the 3-time winner of this race and one of the all-time greats. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyBS0Qvd8oE

The supporting Group 2 races were of considerable interest. The Ribblesdale Stakes over 2400m for the fillies saw an excellent win by FRANKLY DARLING who followed up her Newcastle maiden win with an authoritative performance. She is now 3/1 second favourite for the Oaks behind the Guineas winner LOVE who is 13/8 and you'd have to say while FRANKLY DARLING did this well Epsom will be a very difficult proposition and I just suspect LOVE will have too much experience for her.

ENNISTYMON ran a huge race in second and PASSION was third for Ballydoyle so they will now have a good idea where they stand in relation to FRANKLY DARLING. BHARANI STAR ran on nicely for fourth and while it's unusual for fillies to turn up in the Leger, she'd have every chance.

The King Edward VII Stakes did little to clear the murkier Derby waters with outsider PYLEDRIVER showing far more determination than some of her better-bred and much more expensive rivals. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM ran okay in second but the MOGUL bubble has burst with an unconvincing effort. PYLEDRIVER is 20/1 for Epsom in a fortnight with Lingfield Trial winner ENGLISH KING 7/2 favourite and Guineas winner KAMEKO at 9/2.

The Duke of Cambridge Stakes for the older fillies and mares went to NAZEEF who continued her upward trajectory and perhaps earned a meeting with stablemate TEREBELLUM in the Falmouth next month. She only just held outsider AGINCOURT who ran a blinder in second. The front two were nicely ahead of the consistent QUEEN POWER but both JUBILOSO and LAVENDER'S BLUE were very disappointing.

Times suggested the ground was just on the quick side of good up the straight and just on the slow side on the round course.

[Stodge]

The only way to follow a review of Day One is with a review of Day Two.

Despite some overnight rain, the ground remained generally good.

The sole Group 1 on Wednesday's card was the Prince of Wales Stakes over 2000m for the older horses. Favourite for this was JAPAN from the Aidan O'Brien yard but there were plenty of concerns about the lack of pace in the race and these turned out to be justified.

In the final 300m, it turned out into a sprint and all seven had a chance but perhaps with the advantage of a recent run, LORD NORTH quickened far more effectively and in the end won handily. ADDEYBB, for whom the rain arrived 24 hours late as it turned out, ran a fine second with BARNEY ROY hinting at a return to near his previous best in third. JAPAN was close behind in fourth.

ADDEYBB's connections could rightly curse the elements and if it came up soft or heavy for the Eclipse he'd have a real chance. LORD NORTH has been introduced as 5/1 third favourite for the Eclipse behind GHAIYYATH at 3/1 and ENABLE at 5/4. I'd have some reservations about him in a fast run Eclipse which looks likely with GHAIYYATH likely to make the running.

It's too early to give up on JAPAN - I suspect he'll be back for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes over the much more suitable 2400m. He did win the Juddmonte over 2000m but that race was run at a murderous gallop and the long York straight works for him much better than the short Ascot run-in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UjQKBTCujQ 

The rest of the card was frankly not up to the normal Ascot standard with four handicaps. Her Majesty the Queen enjoyed a rare 2-y-o success at the meeting with TACTICAL another to benefit from the huge draw bias favouring the high numbers in the Windsor Castle Stakes but I thought the second YAZAMAN ran a huge race from stall five. He already wears blinkers which won't please everyone but I think he's decent but as a sprinter.

RUSSIAN EMPEROR followed up his Derrinstown second with a good win in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes which is one of those races which produces a solid form-line.  He ran down FIRST RECEIVER who put up a decent effort and indeed both the first two are worth following.

[Stodge]

Thursday at the Royal Meeting is known as Ladies' Day and before the coming of the Saturday meeting, it was the most popular day of the week with in excess of 70,000 attending.

Nothing like that this year and, rather like the Wednesday, a weak card in all honesty.

The feature was of course the Gold Cup over 4000m. This iconic race used to have the same if not greater prestige than the Classics but with the emphasis shifting downward in distance the staying races just don't have the breeding significance - indeed, Gold Cup winners such as KAYF TARA have ended up more as stallions for jumpers.

This year's renewal was all about STRADIVARIUS bidding to join the likes of SAGARO and YEATS in winning three Gold Cups. STRADIVARIUS had run well when third in the Coronation Cup over 2400m at Newmarket but this was 1600m further. Confidence had been tempered slightly by 18mm of rain overnight and during the morning which turned the ground Soft.

None of that made the slightest difference as STRADIVARIUS put up a thoroughly dominant performance. Dettori was the only one with his horse on the bridle turning for home and to be honest it'll be a long time before you see an easier winner of a Group 1. STRADIVARIUS won by 10 lengths and for those who follow my nonsense NAYEF ROAD came home a clear second to reward my 16/1 each way bet. He was in turn eight lengths ahead of CROSS COUNTER and the rest were strung out like, well I'll try an NZ analogy, the Great Northern field.

STRADIVARIUS re-established himself as the dominant stayer and while there will be those who argue he needs to get the better of KEW GARDENS, that match will have to wait. Trainer John Gosden intimated STRADIVARIUS will go to Goodwood but the Arc remains very much on the table. The Owner is keen to run even if that means taking on ENABLE and for Dettori it will be a real question of split loyalties between two horses for whom he was publicly expressed his affection and admiration.

As for a fourth Gold Cup, well, STRADIVARIUS will only be seven next year so the opportunity to emulate YEATS is clearly there. 

NAYEF ROAD ran a huge race in defeat and I can't help but think he will be a tough opponent for STRADIVARIUS in the staying races ahead. CROSS COUNTER didn't get home in the soft ground again and TECHNICIAN, for whom the ground should have been an advantage, was very disappointing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6JatWI8OqI

A couple of notes from the rest of the card and note the ground was soft so whether these form-lines will be viable through the summer remains to be seen. MOLATHAM and MONARCH OF EGYPT were nicely clear of the others in the Jersey and they could be a couple of decent 3-y-o. Another nice winner was MOUNTAIN ANGEL in the Wolferton, a Listed race over 2000m for the 3-y-o which often produces a nice winner. MOUNTAIN ANGEL defeated SIR DRAGONET but to be honest the second, who was one widely considered a serious Derby horse, looked a bit less than willing to this observer. 

The first 2-y-o race of the meeting, the Chesham Stakes over 1400m, went to BATTLEGROUND from the Aidan O'Brien yard. BATTLEGROUND's breeding is about as good as it gets - he's by War Front out of Found, the 2016 Arc winner who had previously just failed to beat Almanzor in the 2016 Irish Champion Stakes, the second best race of the last decade (the best was the 2013 Queen Anne) in terms of quality and depth. BATTLEGROUND is Found's first foal and certainly an auspicious start.

[Stodge]

On then to the fourth day of the Royal meeting and after a dry night and morning the ground was upgraded to Good to Soft on the Straight Course and Soft, Good to Soft places on the Round track.

The feature Group 1 of day four was the Commonwealth Cup for the 3-y-o over 1200m. This went to GOLDEN HORDE who was close to the pace if not leading all the pace and saw it out very well. KIMARI fluffed the start which is unusual for a Wesley Ward type but ran on strongly. Did it cost her the race? I think not but it didn't help. Some of the other fancied horses such as PIERRE LAPIN and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ were poor and the latter's dismal effort does cast a shadow on the quality of the Irish 2000 Guineas form.

As for the winner, he will no doubt take on the older horses at Newmarket next month and we'll get a sense of how the generations compare. One point I would make is trainer Clive Cox is one of the best handlers of sprinters we have and he made no secret of the fact GOLDEN HORDE was trained for this race rather than for the classics with this as a consolation. You need a specialist for this - it's too soon for the classic horses and too quick for those building into their 3-y-o season. GOLDEN HORDE had solid juvenile form and I backed him at 6/1 so it was a steak supper instead of dog food.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nT2EDFBf6Hc

A much stronger under-card than the previous two days featured the Hardwicke Stakes over 2400m for the older horses. This produced a breakthrough win for the Gosden-trained filly FANNY LOGAN who put the older colts to the sword winning by two and a half lengths. She had herself been well beaten in a Group 3 at Haydock on debut but this was a commanding performance and for a stable already full of very good fillies and mares it's an embarrassment of riches. The fact is FANNY LOGAN could be an Arc contender which of course means locking horns with ENABLE and STRADIVARIUS to name but two. 

I suspect she'll head for the Yorkshire Oaks first.  

Of the others, ALOUNAK ran a huge race at 40s in second and he didn't get the best of runs up the rail not that he would have beaten the winner but he might have been closer. The others were in a bit of a heap with DEFOE rewarding each way support at 6s but both ANTHONY VAN DYCK and ELARQAM were disappointing - the latter, I felt, didn't quite see out the trip and I suspect he'll drop back to 2000m.

The Queen's Vase for the staying 3-y-o over 2800m turned into a real slog on the holding ground. SANTIAGO clearly possesses stamina in abundance and outstayed BERKSHIRE ROCCO who ran another huge race in defeat and remains very much on my Derby shortlist at 20/1. As to whether the winner will come to Epsom I don't know. With the Irish Derby before the English version this year Ballydoyle have to shuffle their pack even more carefully than usual.

The front two drew nearly nine lengths of the others, most of whom went too hard too soon and paid the price.

The Norfolk Stakes for the juvenile colts over 1000m went to THE LIR JET who, having smashed the track record on firm ground at Yarmouth from the front, showed massive versatility and courage in coming from off the pace to run down GOLDEN JET from the Wesley Ward stable who did the usual trick of going hard from the front. It might have worked on a quicker surface and it almost worked here but not quite. The front two were nicely clear so are obviously decent types. I wonder if THE LIR JET might be a player in the aforementioned Commonwealth Cup in 2021 but that's a long way off.

Just a word from the other races - DANDALLA was a hugely impressive six length winner of the Albany Stakes and could be anything. It's true the progeny of Dandy man do go well on the ground but she routed these and might be worth trying at further - the dam was placed at 1600m but I don't see DANDALLA as a Guineas filly but she might be in the mix for a race like the Duchess of Cambridge at Newmarket next month.

[Stodge]

I've not forgotten the final day of Ascot - the review is in the works.

Elsewhere, TIZ THE LAW was an impressive winner of the Belmont Stakes which for this year was reduced in distance from 2400m to 1800m. The Kentucky Derby is now on September 5th with the Preakness not until October 3rd.

A quieter week (mercifully) in the UK and Ireland but the coming weekend has more Group 1 action in the Emerald Isle with the Irish Derby at The Curragh on Saturday evening and the Pretty Polly at the same track on Sunday afternoon. 

In France meanwhile, all restrictions on racing have been lifted and the Paris tracks have re-opened. Sunday sees the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. France is also leading the way on re-admitting spectators with crowd limits of 5,000 imposed from Monday July 11th (just in time for the Bastille holiday).

I suspect British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will announce a significant further easing of restrictions in the UK from tomorrow so it may well be owners may be able to come back in the near future but there seems no immediate prospect of a large scale return of racegoers.

[Stodge]

Right, time to draw the curtain on Royal Ascot 2020 and that means the final day review.

A very strong card to close proceedings with three Group 1 races. The feature of these was the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and as Kiwis will no doubt know, a "home" win for HELLO YOUMZAIN who just held the late challenge of DREAM OF DREAMS with favourite SCEPTICAL just running out of petrol in the final 50m to finish third. To be fair, HELLO YOUMZAIN is a proven Group 1 performer and while I'm not convinced the July Cup is his race, Haydock in September might be more up his street.

I wonder if connections of SCEPTICAL will fancy taking on BATTAASH at Goodwood. As for DREAM OF DREAMS, first time up is the time to catch him and he doesn't seem to take to much racing.

HELLO YOUMZAIN made almost all and that's not easy over the 1200m at Ascot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8djqOYgR1A

The St James's Palace Stakes over 1600m for the 3-y-o colts was a race I got completely wrong as PALACE PIER made the transition to Group 1 effortlessly and was far too good for PINATUBO and  WICHITA. As I expected, PINATUBO didn't get the run of the race and Buick was forced to do too much too early in the straight. The horse barely gets 1600m and on a stiff track like Ascot, stamina was always going to be an issue. Goodwood on the other hand will be much more suitable and I'm not surprised to see him mentioned for the Sussex but he'll probably take on Irish 2000 Guineas winner SISKIN and perhaps the Poulains winner VICTOR LUDORUM.

PALACE PIER has all manner of options. I suspect connections won't be tempted by 2000m just yet and talk was of the Marois at Deauville (over the straight course). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZA5_NB0aDI

Frankie Dettori had a magnificent Ascot and emerged as top jockey at the meeting with 6 winners and 4 seconds beating Jim Crowley who had 6 winners and 1 second. It's my wallet talking but I thought the ride he gave ALPINE STAR in the Coronation Stakes was the ride of the meeting. The manoeuvre to cut back inside in the straight was brilliantly executed and the filly did it really well. Whether she's as good as her half-sister Alpha Centauri remains to be seen but this was very impressive.

She could go well for the Falmouth at Newmarket or wait for the Rothschild at Deauville. I'd love to see her take on the colts sometime somewhere. QUADRILATERAL is another talking horse like PINATUBO and there will come a point when the excuses have to stop. She does too much too early and perhaps a drop back in trip might help. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlpE7TRDGbs

 The supporting Group 2 races were for the juveniles. The Queen Mary Stakes saw Wesley Ward's CAMPANELLE come from off the pace to cut down SACRED in the final 100m under a power-packed Dettori ride. CAMPANELLE's not your typical American juvenile with all the speed and strength in the hind quarters - indeed, she looks far more a European horse which isn't surprising given her breeding. It'll be interesting to see how she fares in America ans I suspect we'll see her back in the UK soon. The second, SACRED, is the longer term prospect and ran a huge race in defeat.

The Coventry Stakes saw history made as NANDO PARRADO (like CAMPANELLE, by the sire Kodiac who is gaining a reputation for throwing precocious juveniles) became the longest priced winner ever at the Royal meeting by coming in at 150/1. Now, good luck to those who backed him but it wouldn't have made much difference if there had been a crowd at Ascot - it would have been silent (apart from the bookmakers). Whether this was a flash in the pan or we completely misjudged how much improvement he'd find from his debut run remains to be seen. Second placed QAADER ran perfectly well and he's in the Stodge notebook.

[Stodge]

Just a few final reflections from me on Royal Ascot 2020.

An extraordinary event bereft of crowd and atmosphere if I'm honest but the racing was high quality though perhaps a notch down on normal years. Credit to all who made it happen but the stark truth was Ascot and British racing had too much to lose by it not happening in terms of worldwide exposure (especially for the bloodstock industry) and money coming in to the world pools operating on the main races.

Juveniles:

Ascot normally takes place 10 weeks into the season and some form lines are established. With just two weeks since the resumption, it was guesswork. As I said above, QAADER and SACRED ran very well in defeat but the Albany winner DANDALLA looked special for all she relished the soft ground.

3-y-o:

Again, very early days. GOLDEN HORDE won the Commonwealth Cup but whether he's ready to go against the older sprinters at Newmarket I'm not sure. Among the classic milers, both PALACE PIER and ALPINE STAR had swerved Newmarket and The Curragh and this possibly paid dividends. Both look very nice prospects  and I hope we get a clash later in the year. The Newmarket Guineas form looks a little shaky after Ascot though in all fairness KAMEKO and LOVE were always going elsewhere.

MOLATHAM and MONARCH OF EGYPT dominated the Jersey and both look viable Group 1 contenders in the future.

SANTIAGO looks a nice staying prospect though not a Derby horse to my eye. FRANKLY DARLING was impressive in the Ribblesdale and is on course for a clash with LOVE at Epsom early next month and while it may be heresy at this point I do think the Oaks is a more interesting race at this stage. The King Edward VII told us nothing and it may be the 3-y-o middle distance colts are nothing special (probably should give KAMEKO and ENGLISH KING a chance before writing them off).

Older Horses:

BATTAASH dominated the King's Stand and I can't see one to bother him at Goodwood over 1000m or in the Nunthorpe (unless Wesley Ward runs CAMPANELLE).

TEREBELLUM gave a good account in the Queen Anne but CIRCUS MAXIMUS is a wonderfully tough horse and while I'm not convinced the sharper Goodwood track will suit, he'll lack nothing in courage. MOUNTAIN ANGEL emerged as a nice prospect when taking the Wolferton which is often a key form race for the season.

The strength of the Gosden team in the older horse ranks was evident all week (Sir Michael Stoute was shut out). In FANNY LOGAN and LORD NORTH he was two wonderful prospects. LORD NORTH's plans are unclear but I'd love to see him in the Irish Champion or the Juddmonte while FANNY LOGAN's impressive win in the Hardwicke adds yet another layer to a potentially crowded Arc pack for Mr Gosden.

Another element of that might be STRADIVARIUS who produced the performance of the week routing the Gold Cup field by 10 lengths. The Coronation Cup run, which drew some criticism at the time, was the perfect prep race and he ran here at the top of his form. Owner Bjorn Nielsen has long expressed his desire to have a tilt at the Arc even if that means taking on ENABLE and John Gosden is diplomatic enough to know the Owner pays the bills but it may be a harder call for Frankie Dettori. 

The circus rolls on as the more normal calendar starts to re-assert but it will be a busy early July with the Derby/Oaks and the Eclipse over the first weekend swiftly followed by the three day July Meeting at Newmarket.

[Stodge]

This weekend sees Group 1 action in Ireland with a quiet weekend in the UK.

Saturday's Irish Derby has 15 runners which is a larger field than most years - normally, the race is run three weeks AFTER the English Derby rather than the week before.

Aidan O'Brien sets us a poser by running no less than six. Top rated and ante post favourite is Queen's Vase winner SANTIAGO and the galloping 2400m at The Curragh will suit. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM was second in the King Edward VII but that looked a moderate renewal. IBERIA was third in the Derrinstown at Leopardstown but on the same card TIGER MOTH was a nice winner of the 1600m maiden and he might surprise for those looking for a Ballydoyle horse at a big price.

Joseph O'Brien runs three and I like Gallinule winner CROSSFIREHURRICANE who accounted for GOLD HAZE but the second should come on a lot and isn't a lost cause at 10s. 

FISCAL RULES was a close fifth in the Irish 2000 Guineas - that was a scrappy race and I'm doubtful as to the quality of the form.

There's lots of ifs, buts and maybes about this lot - it might be a vintage renewal but we won't know that for a while. There's the suspicion the better Ballydoyle runners will be at Epsom next weekend. SANTIAGO is the obvious choice if they go hard - he's a relentless galloper but give me someone else's tenner and I'd have a speculative punt on TIGER MOTH at 14s.

We've not got the final decs for Sunday's Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2000m but it seems likely MAGICAL will run and if she does she will take a world of beating.  This wonderful 5-y-o mare ran nine times last year - after three easy wins in Ireland including a romp in the Tattersalls Gold Cup she was runner up to CRYSTAL OCEAN in the Prince of Wales Stakes and then was runner up to ENABLE in both the Eclipse and the King George. After winning the Irish Champion Stakes, she was disappointing in fifth behind Waldgeist in the Arc before winning the Champion Stakes at Ascot. It's not her fault she's in the same generation as ENABLE - both are champions - and she has won connections £3.4 million prize money.

2000m on decent ground at The Curragh will be ideal.

Meanwhile, it's Soft ground in Paris for the 2400m Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Just five are entered so far and on a day which saw two British raiders win Group 3 races at Longchamp, OLD PERSIAN looks an interesting runner for Godolphin. He was disappointing in the Breeders Cup Turf after a nice win in the Northern Dancer at Woodbine but I get the sense he's a notch below European Group 1 class and I much prefer WAY TO PARIS who was a close second in the Ganay and will love the 2400m as he showed when an impressive winner of the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly. Though he's a 7-y-o, he's improving all the time and I see him as a serious Arc contender.

 

[Stodge]

On 6/25/2020 at 8:51 PM, Stodge said:

There's lots of ifs, buts and maybes about this lot - it might be a vintage renewal but we won't know that for a while. There's the suspicion the better Ballydoyle runners will be at Epsom next weekend. SANTIAGO is the obvious choice if they go hard - he's a relentless galloper but give me someone else's tenner and I'd have a speculative punt on TIGER MOTH at 14s.

I can only give you the winners and the long priced each way horses. 

A tremendous Irish Derby run in a rainstorm but as expected they went like the hounds of hell were after them through halfway and many of them just didn't get home. We knew from Ascot SANTIAGO would stay 2400m as he had won at 2800m on soft and the rain that fell before and during the race helped as it was genuine good ground.

I have to confess I got excited as I saw TIGER MOTH come out of the pack and thought my each way bet might turn out to be a serious winner but it wasn't to be. To be fair, 14/1 each way still returns a decent profit and Mrs Stodge got a decent fish and chip supper out of the winnings. TIGER MOTH was only having his third run and ran a huge race.

SANTIAGO looks ideal for the English or Irish Leger and I suppose the next question is whether he could be a staying horse next year - he's the biggest threat I see to STRADIVARIUS next season (unless Aidan O'Brien heads for the Goodwood Cup which would be fascinating as the 3-y-o would get a huge amount of weight from the triple Gold Cup winner and the irony is STRADIVARIUS broke through into the staying hierarchy when winning the Goodwood Cup as a 3-y-o.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4kBwX9X24Q

Sunday saw the Pretty Polly and as expected it was a romp for MAGICAL. Seamie Heffernan kept it simple bouncing the mare out the front from the gates and making every yard to win by four and a half lengths. A thoroughly satisfactory first run and it will be interesting to see where Aidan O'Brien and "the lads" choose to campaign her. The Juddmonte or the Irish Champion seem obvious if they are going to stay at 2000m and perhaps another tilt at the Arc or the Breeders Cup Turf.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NzkkP2kRX4

The other big Group 1 race this weekend was in France and it was the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud over 2400m and it saw a last gasp win for WAY TO PARIS who, in typical French style, came from last to first under Pierre Charles Boudot to upset NAGANO GOLD and pacemaker ZIYAD. He was beaten by Waldgeist in the Foy last September and connections swerved the Arc for the Cadran but I supect they'll head for the big prize this autumn and he's the best of the French older horses at this time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4waZeAwxqM

On the under card at Saint Cloud, PERSIAN KING was a smooth winner of the Group 2 Muguet - let's not forget he won the 2019 Poulains and was only just held by SOTTSASS in the Jockey Club. He's a talented miler and I expect he'll be a player in the Marois. 

[Freda]

Love your summaries....a bright spot in the gloom here.

[Stodge]

A huge weekend coming up in the UK with the Derby, Oaks and Eclipse all taking place.

For the first time ever, the Derby and the Oaks will be run on the same afternoon at Epsom albeit behind closed doors though with the proviso some Owners may be allowed to attend.

17 have been entered for the Derby which will have a much reduced first prize of £283,550. Aidan O'Brien has entered seven so the final shape of the field is far from clear. ENGLISH KING remains favourite at 9/4 with 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO at 7/2. RUSSIAN EMPEROR, MOGUL and VATICAN CITY are all at 6s and 7s with PYLEDRIVER the best of the long shots to my eye at 14s.

The Oaks has just 11 entries with English 1000 Guineas winner LOVE at 11/8, Ribblesdale winner FRANKLY DARLING at 9/4 and Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL at 9/2

The ground at Epsom is currently Good and while it's a cool, and unsettled week up here there doesn't seem any large amounts of rain forecast.

About nine miles north-west of Epsom Downs is Sandown Park and if Saturday's classic action isn't too much Sunday sees the Group 1 Eclipse over 2000m. An important one-off change to the conditions for the race is 3-y-o are ineligible this year so it's effectively the Prince of Wales's Stakes two and a half weeks later. 

8 have been entered but this is without doubt the best race of the season so far. Horses rated 124, 126 and 128 in opposition tell you all you need to know and when the multiple Group 1 winner DEIRDRE is a 25/1 outsider you know you've got a quality race.

Obviously, the Prince of Wales is a key from line and winner LORD NORTH bids to cement his ascent to the top table while JAPAN has to bounce back from a disappointing effort.

GHAIYYATH won the Coronation Cup with a brilliant front running galloping display. Sandown suits front runners but this is 2000m not 2400m and the opposition is much better - indeed, they son't come much better than ENABLE who is understandably favourite.

ENABLE is probably the best horse to have raced in Britain since Frankel - she is a dual Arc winner and was only just denied a hat trick in the Paris mud last October. She has won 13 of her 15 races and amassed nearly £10.5 million in win and place money. She won the Eclipse last season on debut beating MAGICAL in a close finish but if anything this year's renewal is a notch better with stable mate LORD NORTH a real challenger. The reports from Newmarket are she is as good as ever - she'll need to be.

[Stodge]

20 minutes ago, Freda said:

Love your summaries....a bright spot in the gloom here.

Thanks for the kind word.

I wish I had some answers for you  - I know how passionate so many in NZ are about their racing and if that was all it needed you'd be fine.

[Stodge]

A huge weekend up here with classic action in both the UK and France.

Starting on Epsom Downs where the ground is Good in advance of the Derby and Oaks which are being held on the same afternoon for the first time.

As we know, both are run over the unique switchback roller coaster of a track that is Epsom with the rise from the start climbing the height of Nelson's Column and then a sharp descent down the hill into the famous Tattenham Corner and a 700m run home with a rise in the final 100m.

The Derby for the colts (fillies can run as well but not geldings) has 16 runners and looks a wide open heat. Favourite was ENGLISH KING, who looked very good winning the Trial at Lingfield (the race ANTHONY VAN DYCK won in 2019) but he's got a terrible draw from stall 1 and for a horse setting to make the running or be close to the pace this is a real problem. He has Frankie Dettori but he'll need luck to get a position without expending too much energy. There are real questions over the value of his Lingfield form with the runner up BERKSHIRE ROCCO well held by Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot.

KAMEKO won the 2000 Guineas and in most years that would be enough for him to be favourite but there are doubts over the form of the Newmarket classic and there are real questions in KAMEKO's breeding as to whether he will get 2400m. I think 2000m is his limit and he could well be running on empty in the final furlong. 

Aidan O'Brien has a large entry but it's hard to be enthusiastic about his 3-y-o middle distance colts for all he dominated the Irish classic last weekend (there were no UK or French runners permitted).  Hampton Court winner RUSSIAN EMPEROR has been punted into 5/1 second favourite and he's got a better draw than MOGUL but it's hugely significant Ryan Moore has opted for the latter. MOGUL was disappointing behind PYLEDRIVER in the King Edward VII but he looked as though the race would bring him on a lot physically. He's long been regarded at Ballydoyle as the Derby horse but he's drawn stall two and even at 15/2 I'm not tempted.

VATICAN CITY is lightly raced but ran a blinder in defeat to SISKIN in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Solid form but he's out of a dam who was a sprinter and her progeny have all raced at around a mile so there are real stamina doubts there as well.

The draw hasn't been kind to PYLEDRIVER wither but we know he sees out the 2400m from his win at Ascot. It would be a huge story if he won but I can't see it. HIGHLAND CHIEF has been punted but he won a handicap on soft ground at Ascot so this would be a huge step up.

The Stodge tenner each way in a race I don't find easy to read has gone on MOHICAN HEIGHTS at 20/1. He won both his starts as a juvenile and was a fair third on re-appearance to PYLEDRIVER at Ascot. I'm not sure his draw is ideal but I do think he'll see out the trip and could be running on from the rear when others are running on fumes. 

I'll be honest - I doubt this is a vintage renewal under the circumstances.

The Oaks looks a very different proposition. Just 8 runners and I think only three matter. LOVE is favourite having been a convincing winner of the English 1000 Guineas. She's a full sister to Peach Tree and Flattering who were both well beaten in the Oaks but ran well over middle distances so I've every confidence LOVE will see out the trip. FRANKLY DARLING beat ENNISTYMON in the Ribblesdale and for all the winner won it well, I thought the runner up was closing at the line and the difference in prices (7/4 for FRANKLY DARLING and 5/1 for ENNISTYMON) doesn't make any sense. 

I'm not playing in the race - I hope LOVE turns out to be the clear best middle distance filly and she will be my selection.

Two Group 1 races at Belmont tomorrow evening - the Metropolitan Handicap over 1600m on the Dirt has 8 runners and I fancy MCKINZIE to return to top form. The Manhattan Stakes over 2000m on the turf looks wide open - INSTILLED REGARD won last time and might be the one.

[Stodge]

Sunday is another huge racing day with Sandown Park (about 11 miles from Epsom) hosting the Eclipse over 2000m. 

Just seven go to post with LORD NORTH taken out this morning which wrecks the race from a punting perspective. John Gosden has said this week ENABLE might need the run but he said that last year and she still won. She is a tremendous filly who was won more than her fair share of battles. GHAIYYATH dominated the Coronation Cup at Newmarket and Sandown is a good track for front runners but this is 400m shorter and I just doubt if GHAIYYATH will be able to get these quality rivals off the bridle while still having enough to get home up the hill.

JAPAN was disappointing in the Prince of Wales but I'm sure he will strip much fitter and he's the logical choice against ENABLE on that basis. He won the Juddmonte and on a line through Crystal Ocean there's very little between him and ENABLE. I don't doubt in a real battle she would have his measure but first time up may be the time to catch her out so JAPAN is the tip but I'm not getting involved financially.

At Chantilly, we have the Jockey Club and the Diane. The Jockey Club is known as the French Derby but that's a misnomer as it is run over 2050m. I'd argue the real French Derby is the Grand Prix de Paris but that's just my opinion. The Jockey Club has 17 runners and the ground is Soft at Chantilly. VICTOR LUDORUM won the Poulains after a disappointing run in the Fontainebleau and you'd think from the breeding the trip would be fine so he must have a big chance.

OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the mount of Pierre Charles Boudot and bolted up in a Listed race last time. This is a big jump in class but from the yard of master trainer Andre Fabre that's les sof a concern. THE SUMMIT was second to VICTOR LUDORUM in the Poulains and is a huge each way price at 22/1. However, I think this race is heading across La Manche or the English Channel courtesy of MISHRIF who sidestepped Epsom for this and was an impressive winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2000m beating VOLKAN STAR who followed up last weekend. I've backed him at 10s against the locals.

11 go in the Diane and since ALPINE STAR did me such a favour in the Coronation at Ascot I'm on her again here at 5/2. PEACEFUL won the Irish 1000 Guineas but that loos inferior to the Coronation Stakes form and the locals don't look a stellar group. RAABIHAH won a Listed last time but she'll have to be a lot better than that to trouble proven Group 1 performers.

[mardigras]

Here are my thoughts on the features in the UK this weekend. 

Long time readers of my posts will know that I don't do what would be called conventional form analysis. I don't really analyse form as such anyway. So things like trainer/jockey/weight/barrier are not a part of my analysis. They have a far greater impact on price than they do on performance (in my view), hence why I omit them.

And in the biggest races, the best are usually well known - and I would struggle to find value in those at the top of the markets since I won't back anything not giving me a decent return above my price. All 3 of the big races this weekend fit that. I would rather back 100 losers at 25s that I assessed at 10s, than 100 winners at 2s that I assessed at 2s. Might sound strange but I have to trust my assessments and therefore be rewarded when the horse(s) at value to me, win.

So for the Derby, Kameko is my top rated from English King. No bet on either, but if Kameko, who is drifting a little, gets out to 7s+, would be value in my view. I'm with Emissary as my value at 38s.

For the Oaks, Love is clearly top rated. I rate her at her quote so wouldn't touch that with even 50p. I'd be looking at Queen Daenerys at 50s myself. 

And for Sunday's Eclipse, I don't have the outcome as clear as the bookies seem to. I have rated Ghaiyyath on top ahead of equally Japan and Enable. Enable is all class but not at 2.2 for me. Ghaiyyath is also too short at 3.25. I won't be betting on this event, but if I was, I'd be looking at either Deirdre or Magic Wand at 25s.