News from the North(ern) Hemisphere

[Midnight Caller]

3 hours ago, Stodge said:

A huge weekend up here with classic action in both the UK and France.

Starting on Epsom Downs where the ground is Good in advance of the Derby and Oaks which are being held on the same afternoon for the first time.

As we know, both are run over the unique switchback roller coaster of a track that is Epsom with the rise from the start climbing the height of Nelson's Column and then a sharp descent down the hill into the famous Tattenham Corner and a 700m run home with a rise in the final 100m.

The Derby for the colts (fillies can run as well but not geldings) has 16 runners and looks a wide open heat. Favourite was ENGLISH KING, who looked very good winning the Trial at Lingfield (the race ANTHONY VAN DYCK won in 2019) but he's got a terrible draw from stall 1 and for a horse setting to make the running or be close to the pace this is a real problem. He has Frankie Dettori but he'll need luck to get a position without expending too much energy. There are real questions over the value of his Lingfield form with the runner up BERKSHIRE ROCCO well held by Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO at Ascot.

KAMEKO won the 2000 Guineas and in most years that would be enough for him to be favourite but there are doubts over the form of the Newmarket classic and there are real questions in KAMEKO's breeding as to whether he will get 2400m. I think 2000m is his limit and he could well be running on empty in the final furlong. 

Aidan O'Brien has a large entry but it's hard to be enthusiastic about his 3-y-o middle distance colts for all he dominated the Irish classic last weekend (there were no UK or French runners permitted).  Hampton Court winner RUSSIAN EMPEROR has been punted into 5/1 second favourite and he's got a better draw than MOGUL but it's hugely significant Ryan Moore has opted for the latter. MOGUL was disappointing behind PYLEDRIVER in the King Edward VII but he looked as though the race would bring him on a lot physically. He's long been regarded at Ballydoyle as the Derby horse but he's drawn stall two and even at 15/2 I'm not tempted.

VATICAN CITY is lightly raced but ran a blinder in defeat to SISKIN in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Solid form but he's out of a dam who was a sprinter and her progeny have all raced at around a mile so there are real stamina doubts there as well.

The draw hasn't been kind to PYLEDRIVER wither but we know he sees out the 2400m from his win at Ascot. It would be a huge story if he won but I can't see it. HIGHLAND CHIEF has been punted but he won a handicap on soft ground at Ascot so this would be a huge step up.

The Stodge tenner each way in a race I don't find easy to read has gone on MOHICAN HEIGHTS at 20/1. He won both his starts as a juvenile and was a fair third on re-appearance to PYLEDRIVER at Ascot. I'm not sure his draw is ideal but I do think he'll see out the trip and could be running on from the rear when others are running on fumes. 

I'll be honest - I doubt this is a vintage renewal under the circumstances.

The Oaks looks a very different proposition. Just 8 runners and I think only three matter. LOVE is favourite having been a convincing winner of the English 1000 Guineas. She's a full sister to Peach Tree and Flattering who were both well beaten in the Oaks but ran well over middle distances so I've every confidence LOVE will see out the trip. FRANKLY DARLING beat ENNISTYMON in the Ribblesdale and for all the winner won it well, I thought the runner up was closing at the line and the difference in prices (7/4 for FRANKLY DARLING and 5/1 for ENNISTYMON) doesn't make any sense. 

I'm not playing in the race - I hope LOVE turns out to be the clear best middle distance filly and she will be my selection.

Two Group 1 races at Belmont tomorrow evening - the Metropolitan Handicap over 1600m on the Dirt has 8 runners and I fancy MCKINZIE to return to top form. The Manhattan Stakes over 2000m on the turf looks wide open - INSTILLED REGARD won last time and might be the one.

Hoping to pop up for the Grp 1's and watch them come around Tattenham  Corner tomorrow. 

Both races look between the top 3 in the market!I was impressed with the way English King handled the similar track at Lingfield, which was run at a reasonable  clip.Kameko has a good turn of foot and O'Brien's top 2 can't be  underestimated, especially Mogul whose run at Ascot was too bad to be true.

Again the top 3 in The Oaks look tough,but will throw in Passion for value.Either she's not up to Grp1 level or the race at Ascot came a little soon (6 days)only time will tell.

Ryan Moore rarely  gets it wrong in Grp 1's

[Midnight Caller]

Ladbrokes are going 25/1 if  Frankie wins the 3 Grp 1's over the weekend 

[mardigras]

20 hours ago, mardigras said:

So for the Derby, Kameko is my top rated from English King. No bet on either, but if Kameko, who is drifting a little, gets out to 7s+, would be value in my view. I'm with Emissary as my value at 38s.

For the Oaks, Love is clearly top rated. I rate her at her quote so wouldn't touch that with even 50p. I'd be looking at Queen Daenerys at 50s myself.

O'Brien's lesser fancied delivered in the Derby - with Serpentine too strong. Kameko went off short to me and only came in from the price indicated above, finishing 4th.

In the Oaks, Love was as per assessment, and far too good. Thought Queen Daenerys went pretty well actually for 4th. Actually, a fair bit of money came for her from my price above available at 50s - she shortened into 20s at start.

My overall assessment of the Derby was reasonable with the winner assessed at 16s and the runner up at 25s. They started at 34s and 70s. Emissary was never in the race.

 

[Midnight Caller]

I got up to Tattenham Corner just for The Derby and watched with binoculars from Attwaters stables.What is it  with the racing security these days?Give the man a high vis and they turn into keystone cops! Keystone  cop says to me, what are you doing here?The course is fenced off and they have security dotted around the road side of the course every  50m! I reply, I'm  watching The Derby from across the road on private land,and politely told him F...off( a bit harsh do you think?).

Anyway, back to The Derby and I got a good look at them going down to the start.The winner looked slightly immature in his frame and his colouring reminded me a bit of Ruler Of The World. The two fav's didn't look settled at all going down, but in saying that English  King is a lovely looking horse.Baldings horse is a lovely animal who has St Leger written  all over him.

A head wind for the first half of the  race (in hindsight) probably put a few jocks into the mindset of looking after their mounts and thinking that the two O'Brien wuffies were simply there for pacemaking duties (we all did ,didn't  we?).

People are saying it was a weak Derby(they say that every year unless the fav wins)but on watching the replay again  this morning, this winner has a lot more scope than previous winners and to win a Derby on that limited prep and backing up from 7 days from his win in Ireland was great training effort, but also raw ability  and potential of the horse.Only time will tell.He hardly  blew  a match out after the race!More to come from him I think.

Love very impressive in The  Oaks

 

 

 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[mardigras]

On 7/4/2020 at 10:18 AM, mardigras said:

And for Sunday's Eclipse, I don't have the outcome as clear as the bookies seem to. I have rated Ghaiyyath on top ahead of equally Japan and Enable. Enable is all class but not at 2.2 for me. Ghaiyyath is also too short at 3.25. I won't be betting on this event, but if I was, I'd be looking at either Deirdre or Magic Wand at 25s.

Looks like my assessments were spot on. Ghaiyyath who I thought was the leading chance won well with Enable and Japan together in 2nd and 3rd. The two for me at best value being 4th and 5th (and not that far away although never looking like winning chances.).

In one of the supporting races Dashing Willoughby who has been going great, held out Spanish Mission, who last year was touted a s a possible Melbourne Cup runner. Depending on whether any come this year (or whether the race is even run), he wouldn't be a no hoper. Cross Counter ran in the race and was a long way off them in 3rd, finishing ahead of previous cup aspirant Withhold. Both looked pretty flat to me, and although Appleby says he wants to bring Cross Counter back, he doesn't seem to have the zip he has had in the past. 

[Midnight Caller]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Looks like my assessments were spot on. Ghaiyyath who I thought was the leading chance won well with Enable and Japan together in 2nd and 3rd. The two for me at best value being 4th and 5th (and not that far away although never looking like winning chances.).

In one of the supporting races Dashing Willoughby who has been going great, held out Spanish Mission, who last year was touted a s a possible Melbourne Cup runner. Depending on whether any come this year (or whether the race is even run), he wouldn't be a no hoper. Cross Counter ran in the race and was a long way off them in 3rd, finishing ahead of previous cup aspirant Withhold. Both looked pretty flat to me, and although Appleby says he wants to bring Cross Counter back, he doesn't seem to have the zip he has had in the past. 

Top stuff Mardi,Ghaiyyath is a super looking animal! Take nothing away from the winner but Gosden pre race declared she maybe one short and the main aim was The Arc.  A'ali was huge value at 12's today (no bets at Sandown today for me)

Quite weekend  backing Passion e/w 33/1 , Small investments on Fozzy's 3yr old Star of Cashel at Naas and Starlight Dancer in the Handicap at Cork today. His team are really in form at the moment.

Edited July 5, 2020 by Midnight Caller

[mardigras]

12 hours ago, mardigras said:

In one of the supporting races Dashing Willoughby who has been going great, held out Spanish Mission, who last year was touted a s a possible Melbourne Cup runner. Depending on whether any come this year (or whether the race is even run), he wouldn't be a no hoper. Cross Counter ran in the race and was a long way off them in 3rd, finishing ahead of previous cup aspirant Withhold. Both looked pretty flat to me, and although Appleby says he wants to bring Cross Counter back, he doesn't seem to have the zip he has had in the past. 

Andrew Balding has indicated he is giving serious regard to Dashing Willoughby coming for the Melbourne Cup (if all given the green light). 

[Stodge]

Good to see plenty of comment on Saturday's extraordinary events at Epsom Downs.

Starting with the Derby,  I won't bother posting a link to the race as other people have. I can't recall if Reference Point made every yard in his Derby or if Slip Anchor did the same but in recent years it hasn't happened. It's extraordinary to think SERPENTINE won a maiden seven days before winning the Derby which makes a nonsense of all the usual trials and form lines. 

It was a brilliant tactical ride from Emmet McNamara but to what extent was he gifted the race by the other riders? Perhaps they had forgotten SERPENTINE's dam had been an Oaks runner up so he wasn't going to stop though he was weakening in the final 200m (understandably). I thought he handled the Hill and Tattenham Corner superbly and that as much as anything else enabled the horse to skip 12-15 lengths ahead with 600m to go. 

From a form standpoint, it could be a fluke or he could be a seriously good horse in a mediocre crop. Ordinarily, he'd head for The Curragh for the Irish Derby but that can't happen this year so where next? The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes means taking on his elders but he'll be getting a lot of weight and perhaps he'll take the staying route so the Voltigeur at York before the Leger at Doncaster and perhaps a tilt at the Arc. Could he be a Cup horse next year? 

As for the others, KHALIFA SAT was second throughout and did well to hoid on as did AMHRAN NA BHFIANH who rallied back into third on the post. After them, the first five in the betting market occupied the next five places split by less than three lengths with KAMEKO, ENGLISH KING, MOGUL, RUSSIAN EMPEROR and VATICAN KING all in a heap suggesting there's not much between them as the pre-race hype suggested and that none of them are superstars.

Aidan O'Brien did of course win with another long priced horse in Wings of Eagles in 2017 and he was retired after a narrow defeat at The Curragh so we just don't know. It was O'Brien's eighth win in the race which is a modern record.

As for the Oaks, an even wider margin winner in a slightly faster run race as LOVE powered home by nine lengths. There was so much to like about this performance and for all the tv pundits wanted her to win the Triple Crown at Doncaster, the Leger is an afterthought these days and I think we saw the Arc winner on Saturday. LOVE won this with all the authority ENABLE showed back in 2017 and then some. I look forward to her taking on the colts and perhaps the older horses down the road and on this performance she's have probably beaten the colts on Saturday.

ENNISTYMON ran another huge race and if LOVE sidesteps the Irish Oaks, team O'Brien look to have a ready alternative. My guess is LOVE will head for the Yorkshire Oaks and then the Arc via the Vermeille. I'm also sure FRANKLY DARLING will be back at her best on a more galloping track and she could give LOVE more of a test at York but it's hard to see her reversing that kind of deficit.

The ground at Epsom was good and fast times (and perhaps front runners) were aided by a tailwind up the straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_utIhKxtcDc

[Stodge]

Before offering the Sunday review, a quick look forward to the action up here in the coming few days.

The Newmarket July Festival starts on Thursday and runs to Saturday. It has two Group 1 features - the Falmouth for the fillies and mares over 1600m and the big July Cup over 1200m on Saturday.

That's not to say there isn't a strong set of supporting races at both Group 2 level. 

On Thursday the Group 2 July Stakes for the juveniles has 10 runners. QAADER was second to the 150/1 NANDO PERRADO in the Coventry while TACTICAL won the 1000m Windsor Castle. Into the mix comes SWISS ACE from the all-conquering Aidan O'Brien yard. He won a 1000m maiden on debut at Tipperary and falls into the "could be anything" category. I like QAADER because at Ascot he was on the wrong side of the course and had too much to do late on.

The Princess of Wales's Stakes is over 2400m. Eight go and a number of these have to come back from some moderate efforts last time including COMMUNIQUE (who won this last year), DESERT ENCOUNTER and OLD PERSIAN who was frankly dismal in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Charlie Appleby is trying cheek pieces so he's of interest. ALOUNAK ran a blinder in the Hardwicke and must be considered. The two that interest me are both fillies - ENBIHAAR had a stellar 3-y-o campaign as a tough staying filly and ended up running third to Oaks winner ANAPURNA in the Royallieu on ground which probably didn't suit. ANTONIA DE VEGA had a quiet 3-y-o campaign but started this season with a nice win at Pontefract. She's got to find a fair bit against these but with eight runners we can play the each way shark and 9s is a decent price.

Newmarket isn't the only game in town on Thursday with York staging its belated opening day and a race which is normally a Derby trial, the Dante, taking place five days AFTER the Derby. That's 2020 for you and I don't really understand why they feel they need to run the race given we are experiencing a glut of quality and a dearth of moderate races. Just six go and favourite is HIGHEST GROUND who dished out a beating to Waldgeist's brother WALDKOENIG at Haydock a fortnight ago. It's solid form but he's taken on by CORMORANT who beat RUSSIAN EMPEROR in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown and that's a good race most years. 

It's rare Frankie Dettori swerves Newmarket and even rarer he swerves it to go to ride a 10/1 shot but ENCIPHER is that horse and he was a close second to AL MADHAR at Newbury. That's a way below the form of others in the field but the jockey booking makes me sit up and take note.

Nine have been entered for Friday's Falmouth at Newmarket over 1600m. TEREBELLUM ran a huge race in the Queen Anne against the colts and back among her own gender has a huge chance. NAZEEF won the Group 2 for the fillies and mares at Ascot and to be honest looks to have it on against TEREBELLUM. ONE MASTER brings Group 1 form to the table - she was second in this last year and won the Foret at Longchamp. She was sixth to HELLO YOUMZAIN in the Diamond Jubilee and while 1200m is clearly too short, 1600m may be far enough but if they dawdle, she will be the one who will be coming home best.

There are three 3-y-o entered including PEACEFUL who won the Irish 1000 Guineas before running a close third to the horse she beat into second place that day, FANCY BLUE, in the Diane last Sunday. I'd be surprised if she backs up so quickly but getting the weight she does would put her in this.

15 have been entered for Saturday's July Cup for which Commonwealth Cup winner GOLDEN HORDE is 5/2 favourite with the winner, third and fourth, HELLO YOUMZAIN, SCEPTICAL and KHAADEM the next three in the market. Sunday sees the Jean Prat at Deauville for the 3-y-o over 1400m. French juvenile star EARTHLIGHT is missing the race but among 29 entries are PINATUBO who I think will love the trip and the track.

[Stodge]

Before I dish up some nonsense on Friday's racing, I thought I'd remind you all of my thoughts on the Jockey Club from last week.

OCEAN ATLANTIQUE is the mount of Pierre Charles Boudot and bolted up in a Listed race last time. This is a big jump in class but from the yard of master trainer Andre Fabre that's less of a concern. THE SUMMIT was second to VICTOR LUDORUM in the Poulains and is a huge each way price at 22/1. However, I think this race is heading across La Manche or the English Channel courtesy of MISHRIF who sidestepped Epsom for this and was an impressive winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2000m beating VOLKAN STAR who followed up last weekend. I've backed him at 10s against the locals.

I mean, I give you the winner AND the second - what more can I do? 

Anyway, enjoy the race but I doubt you'll enjoy it as much as I did.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZKPlVoARc0

With Mrs Stodge's steak and champagne supper secure, I thought all that had to happen was for ALPINE STAR to follow up in the Diane.  Well, as the saying goes "the best laid plans" - to be fair, I thought she got a decent ride from Pasquier but whether it was the trip or the ground she just ran out of steam in the final 100m and this enabled Irish 1000 Guineas runner up FANCY BLUE to nick the race on the stick. The Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL was third and it confirms the widely-held view that, LOVE apart, the 3-y-o fillies are nothing special so far. I suspect ALPINE STAR will come back to 1600m next time and I wonder if they may be tempted to run her against the colts in the Sussex.

FANCY BLUE was young Donnacha O'Brien's first classic winner as a trainer but we can be certain it won't be the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL9hXfvHTR0

Just a quick mention of Saturday's big races at Belmont. VEKOMA put up a gutsy performance to win the Metropolitan Handicap and could be a serious player in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. MCKINZIE was disappointing and while CODE OF HONOR, the 2019 Kentucky Derby runner up, travelled into the race well, he just couldn't quicken against these specialist milers. I think he'll go back up to 2000m.

Finally, INSTILLED REGARD just prevailed in a thrilling finish to the Manhattan over 2000m on the turf. I suspect the placed horses may fancy their chances of reversing the places at the Arlington Million in Chicago.

[Stodge]

A quick look at Friday's action at Newmarket which features the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes over 1600m.

Just seven run and TEREBELLUM remains a firm 11/8 favourite. On her Queen Anne run, she's going to take a lot of beating. MAGIC WAND backs up quickly after her fourth in last Sunday's Eclipse while NAZEEF won a Group 2 at Ascot and ONE MASTER is the Foret winner who was second in this last year. It's a decent heat but it's hard to look beyond TEREBELLUM.

The Duchess of Cambridge is a Group 2 for the juvenile fillies over 1200m. DANDELLA was hugely impressive in the Albany at Ascot winning by six lengths but the ground was soft and she is by Dandy man whose progeny love some juice in the ground. The Newmarket ground is currently Good. TIME SCALE was a strong winner on the other Newmarket track at the end of June and is on the upgrade. The interesting runner for me is MORE BEAUTIFUL who won convincingly on debut at Naas over 1000m. For those who don't know the Irish track, it's a stiff uphill finish and I was surprised to see Aidan O'Brien run her in the Queen Mary in which she got predictably outpaced. This is much more suitable and I rate her a big chance to overturn the locals.

[Stodge]

A quieter weekend up here with the final day of the July Meeting at Newmarket the headline.

13 go in the July Cup over 1200m but the ground is on the soft side so this will make this more of a stamina test than is often the case. Joint top rated are the 3-y-o GOLDEN HORDE and the 4-y-o HELLO YOUMZAIN and these two won the key 1200m championship races at the Royal meeting. GOLDEN HORDE won the Commonwealth Cup for the 3-y-o and did it well while HELLO YOUMZAIN won the Diamond Jubilee.

Who to choose? The 3-y-o gets 6 lbs which is not insignificant but will it be enough? SCEPTICAL and KHAADEM were third and fourth in the Diamond Jubilee and THREAT was fifth in the Commonwealth Cup. I'm not convinced SCEPTICAL will get home and I'm doubtful as to the ground for the other two. None of the others make a lot of appeal in all honesty. I'm with HELLO YOUMZAIN and I'm on at 11/2.

The supporting Group 2 is the Superlative for the juveniles over 1400m. All ten have won and six are unbeaten so this could be a decent heat. HUDSON RIVER represents Aidan O'Brien and has been backed into favouritism. He won on debut over 1400m at The Curragh while John Gosden's SEVENTH KINGDOM won on 1400m at Doncaster on debut. MASTER OF THE SEAS won on soft ground on the Rowley MIle track. It's very difficult to tie up these form lines and make a call so it's a race to watch for the future for me.

At Ascot, 11 go in the Group 2 Summer Mile on ground described as Good. It doesn't look the strongest renewal and former Queen Anne winner LORD GLITTERS could be the one back down in grade. He's always performed well over the track. MARIE'S DIAMOND was third, MOHAATHER seventh and SKARDU eighth in this year's renewal of the Queen Anne and the former has obvious claims on that effort. 

Sunday's feature is the Jean Prat at Chantilly over 1400m. 11 go to post with the favourite PINATUBO who was third in the 2000 Guineas and second in the St James's Palace. To me, he's always looked a 1400m horse and he's going to take a lot of beating if he settles. MOLATHAM won the Jersey but this is Group 3 form, not Group 1. ALSOM was third in the Poulains but I'm more interested in TROPBEAU who was fourth in the Pouliches. She was very good over course and distance as a juvenile and I've backed her each way at 12s. 

[Midnight Caller]

I thought Skardu's run and finishing position wasn't  as bad as it  looked after a long break.

[Stodge]

Okay, the weekend gives me a chance to catch up and I've got some serious unfinished business from last weekend in the form of the Eclipse at Sandown which saw the seasonal re-appearance of dual Arc winner ENABLE, still in training as a 6-y-o.

She went off favourite but was decisively held in second by GHAIYYATH who made most under William Buick. To be honest, the race went pretty much as might have been expected. Buick got to the front after 100m and had a fairly easy time of it in front. Sandown is a track which favours front runners but the key feature of last Sunday was a strong headwind up the finishing straight. I thought it wouldn't help GHAIYYATH but it didn't help the pursuers either who found it hard to make the ground into the teeth of the near gale. Buick had enjoyed the tailwind on the far side and still had plenty of petrol when quickening off the bottom of the hill.

GHAIYYATH won by two and a quarter lengths and he might well have won at 2400m but we'll find that out another day. Not many horses have won the Coronation Cup and the Eclipse in the same season - post race plans suggested the Juddmonte would be the preferred route. York is another track where front runners are favoured but not to the same extent as Sandown. ENABLE ran okay but, to be honest, I have some doubts. She won the Eclipse last year and this was an inferior performance by 5-7 lbs. Trainer John Gosden told anyone and everyone before the race she was "85% fit" and while he occasionally bluffs, this time he was on the money. Time makes fools of us all and while I'm not saying ENABLE is anyone's fool,  the question as to whether she has or can retain her full ability at age six is one I'm going to be musing on for a while.

No plans for her formally but I suspect the King George, Yorkshire Oaks and then the Arc. JAPAN ran a much better race in third and was a head behind ENABLE. I know they still rate him very highly at Ballydoyle but they have LOVE who is now many people's idea of the Arc winner (she was mine as soon as she passed the post at Epsom). 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9bDK0Ke_r0

On a busy racing day, the feature supporting race at Sandown was the Henry II Stakes over 3200m and this went to DASHING WILLOUGHBY and I believe they are considering a trip to Flemington in November. At Haydock, the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks went to MANUELA DE VEGA who romped home unchallenged by five lengths. The field was decimated by scratchings after overnight rain left the ground soft so I'm not certain what to make of this. She's highly effective on wet turf so an autumn campaign might be on the cards.

The circus moved on to Newmarket for the July Festival. The opening day is Ladies' Day and to be honest it was fortunate there were no spectators as the rain was incessant for much of the afternoon and that turned the ground to Soft. The opening day feature was the Group 2 Princess of Wales and the rain was perfect for DAME MAILLOT who had been well behind ENBIHAAR on fast ground at Doncaster last autumn but reversed the form in style. She won the Pomone on heavy ground at Deauville last year so, rather like MANUELA DE VEGA above, she could be one for a wet autumn campaign. COMMUNIQUE made a bold effort to follow up last year's success in this race but came up against an improving filly on her ground.

At York, the Group 2 Dante saw HIGHEST GROUND, a well-touted type in Newmarket, start odds-on for this post-Derby "trial" but he just ran out of steam on the slow ground and had to give best to THUNDEROUS, a more experienced typical Mark Johnston type, gutsy and courageous in a battle. Both the front two ran with credit.

Friday saw a better day weather wise at Newmarket but the ground remained Soft for all they were racing on fresh turf.The feature Group 1 was the Falmouth Stakes for the fillies and mares and favourite for this year's renewal was TEREBELLUM who had run such a fine race behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS in the Queen Anne but this wasn't to be her day. There were two problems for jockey Frankie Dettori, first, the ground on which she was unproven and second, a field made up of finishers. He set the fractions and tried to quicken it from the front and get the others to get in each other's way but as TEREBELLUM hit the rising ground the petrol gauge was empty and she was swamped in the final 150m.

The race went to Duke of Cambridge winner NAZEEF who showed tremendous determination to battle up the hill and scramble home by a neck from the fast finishing BILLESDON BROOK who ran another fine race. Let's not forget she won the 1000 Guineas back in 2018 beating Laurens and while she's had a few moderate efforts since, she's always kept very good company and won the 2019 Sun Chariot so she owes her connections nothing and will be a smashing broodmare.

TEREBELLUM was third beaten two necks and perhaps the ground was the key or perhaps it was the nature of the field. She stays further and I wonder if connections will think about stepping her back up in trip though 2000m is a crowded market currently. ONE MASTER was slightly unlucky - he was beaten a length in total and fourth and had to switch around the winner which cost her momentum and ground at a critical time. Would she have beaten NAZEEF with a clear run? You can judge for yourselves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h9aSq0jZhM

DANDALLA had put up an eye-catching performance to win the Albany at Ascot but had to work much harder to win the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes. She was reluctant to go in the stalls and while she got home here, I just wonder if the Ascot effort took more out of her than seemed the case. The placed horses, FEV ROVER and SANTOSHA, were coming off maiden race starts so the quality of the form is open to question but it's very early days for the juvenile fillies.

[Stodge]

On 7/5/2020 at 9:01 AM, Midnight Caller said:

I got up to Tattenham Corner just for The Derby and watched with binoculars from Attwaters stables.What is it  with the racing security these days?Give the man a high vis and they turn into keystone cops! Keystone  cop says to me, what are you doing here?The course is fenced off and they have security dotted around the road side of the course every  50m! I reply, I'm  watching The Derby from across the road on private land,and politely told him F...off( a bit harsh do you think?).

Anyway, back to The Derby and I got a good look at them going down to the start.The winner looked slightly immature in his frame and his colouring reminded me a bit of Ruler Of The World. The two fav's didn't look settled at all going down, but in saying that English  King is a lovely looking horse.Baldings horse is a lovely animal who has St Leger written  all over him.

A head wind for the first half of the  race (in hindsight) probably put a few jocks into the mindset of looking after their mounts and thinking that the two O'Brien wuffies were simply there for pacemaking duties (we all did ,didn't  we?).

People are saying it was a weak Derby(they say that every year unless the fav wins)but on watching the replay again  this morning, this winner has a lot more scope than previous winners and to win a Derby on that limited prep and backing up from 7 days from his win in Ireland was great training effort, but also raw ability  and potential of the horse.Only time will tell.He hardly  blew  a match out after the race!More to come from him I think.

Love very impressive in The  Oaks

 

 

 

I've never been as much a fan of ENGLISH KING as some. I'm not saying he's not decent but the Lingfield Trial this year was a strange race with, I thought, a lot of dead wood in the field. BERKSHIRE ROCCO is no world beater so I was never a fan of the form. 

KAMEKO didn't stay which was always likely on the breeding while I'd be doubtful about KHALIFA SAT beyond 2400m as well. 

The 2020 Derby reminded me of SLIP ANCHOR's 1985 Derby when Cauthen went from the front. As to how "good" SERPENTINE is, he was good enough on July 4th 2020. 

The fact the top five in the market all finished within three lengths of each other in fourth to eighth places "suggests" this wasn't a vintage Derby field and I'd be surprised if either the second or third turned out to be better than all of them. I definitely rate LOVE superior to SERPENTINE - the problem for the latter is they've seen how he runs. There aren't any more opportunities for him among his own age group so he'll have to go against the older boys and girls (and LOVE). 

IF he can prevail against all of those he'll fully deserve the epithet "champion" - no question. For me, kudos to Emmet for a fine ride but the jury is very much still out. As for LOVE, she's won both the Guineas and the Oaks -  she has yet to prove herself against the older fillies and mares let alone the boys. The jury's out on her as well.

[Stodge]

Wrapping up last weekend's action up here, starting with the final day of the July Meeting at Newmarket and the feature race, the July Cup, over 1200m. Billed as a clash between the two big Ascot winners, GOLDEN HORDE representing the 3-y-o and HELLO YOUMZAIN representing the older horses, it turned out neither had any answer to OXTED who exploded onto the Group 1 sprinting scene with a clear-cut success.

It's probably fair to say Roger Teal isn't one of the better known Newmarket handlers but this shows he can do the job with the right horse. The jockey, Cieren Fallon, is the son of the former champion Kieren Fallon, one of the top riders of the late 90s and early 00s winning the jockeys title six times. When I was a regular racegoer in the late 90s you could almost punt Fallon blind as every horse got a ride and you always felt you had a run for your money, win or lose.

As is well known, Fallon Senior was not without his demons and it's to be hoped the son enjoys a smoother journey as he's clearly not short of talent. 

SCEPTICAL and GOLDEN HORDE fought out the minor money suggesting there 's very little between the 3-y-o and the older horses at this time. KHAADEM was a decent fourth and HELLO YOUMZAIN, for whom I suspect the ground had dried too much, was fifth. BRANDO ran an extraordinary race finishing sixth having lost lengths at the start - he was beaten just over four lengths and if you watch the race judge how close he would have been on level terms.

OXTED had been targeted for this race after winning the Abernant but it still looked a big task moving from Group 3 to Group 1. I suspect swerving Ascot and the Diamond Jubilee was a very smart move - we've seen one or two not follow up from Ascot and I suspect, having had a quick prep before the Royal meeting, exertions in Berkshire took a heavier toll than seemed the case at the time. 

I imagine OXTED will head for Haydock while SCEPTICAL, for me, doesn't quite see out 1200m in this company. A stiff 1000m might suit better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsB3E6XFqG8

The supporting Group 2 Superlative went to MASTER OF THE SEAS who did this very well beating a field of winners. He picked up some fancy quotes for next year's Guineas and the breeding suggests 2000m would be his optimum. SEVENTH KINGDOM is the one for me for the longer term. He couldn't go with them early on but ran on to finish third and he's the first horse I've seen this season who looks a Derby prospect for 2021. HUDSON RIVER was very disappointing and on early evidence the Ballydoyle juveniles have yet to really prove they are the equivalent of the English 2-y-o at this time.

At Ascot, the Group 2 Summer Mile saw an impressive performance by MOHAATHER who thrashed these by nearly four lengths. Let's be honest - it all went wrong in the Queen Anne and it turned out the horse had a lovely pipe-opener in a Group 1. The benefit of that was obvious and the talk post-race was of the Sussex Stakes in a fortnight - that's lining up to be a huge race.

Sunday saw a decent card at Deauville headed by the Jean Prat over 1400m. PINATUBO won this as he as entitled to having settled much better than at Ascot and Newmarket. This is his trip rather than the mile and he was too good for LOPE Y FERNANDEZ. The Fabre horses, ALSON and TROPBEAU, were very poor while the Jersey winner MOLATHAM ran a fair race in fifth. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOtEa_5abOk

PINATUBO is 5/1 for the Sussex and this could be the race of the season so far:

Current betting has Irish 2000 Guineas winner SISKIN at 6/4, MOHAATHER at 5/2, St James's Palace winner PALACE PIER at 5/2 and Queen Anne winner CIRCUS MAXIMUS at 7/2. 2000 Guineas winner KAMEKO is 7/1 with Falmouth winner NAZEEF also at 7s.  

[Stodge]

Eight have been left in Saturday's Irish Oaks at The Curragh where the ground is currently Good. ENNISTYMON comes off the back of running second in both the Ribblesdale and the English Oaks and that's solid form. She looks the pick of the four Aidan O'Brien runners though SNOW won the Munster Oaks last time (a Group 3) and is clearly improving.

The main threat to the Ballydoyle contingent looks to be CAYENNE PEPPER who was unbeaten in three before running fourth in the Group 1 Fillies Mile. She re-appeared in the Pretty Polly and chased home MAGICAL albeit at a respectable distance. She's by Australia and you'd think she get the trip well but I suspect the Ballydoyle contingent will want to put that to the test. 

I'm not playing in the race but I think ENNISTYMON is the one I like.

The supporting Group 2 races start with the Curragh Cup over 2800m. MASTER OF REALITY will be known to most on here having run a close fourth in the Melbourne Cup last November and you;d imagine that is the objective again this time. He was a long way behind TWILIGHT PAYMENT in the Vintage Crop. The interesting one is the 3-y-o MEMORABILIS who only won a maiden last time but Aidan puts on the blinkers and that's a big hint more is expected.

The Minstrel over 1400m features ROMANISED, a former Irish 2000 Guineas winner who won this last year before picking up the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville and only just failing against CIRCUS MAXIMUS in the Moulin. That's solid Group 1 form in a Group 2 and it will do for me if he is fit after a long layoff. LANCASTER HOUSE is very lightly raced and won the Gladness last time but on figures has a bit to find with ROMANISED though has race fitness on his side.

The Railway over 1200m for the juveniles has seven runners, six of whom have already won a race. MERCHANTS QUAY looks the O'Brien pick but I'm interested in TO GLORY who won a Limerick maiden on debut and could be anything.

A big evening in North America with the Haskell at Monmouth Park featuring Belmont Stakes runner-up DR POST.

A quick look at Sunday with eight declared for the Ispahan over 1800m at Chantilly. Of the eight declared, four are from the UK but the local PERSIAN KING who won the Poulains last year, looks to have the answers. Of the raiders, POGO was a convincing winner of a Listed last time but I like POSITIVE who was highly tried as a juvenile and was a fair fourth in the St James's Palace on his seasonal bow. He didn't get the clearest of runs that day and at 10/1 I'm going to have a little each way play.

[Stodge]

The final declarations are through for Sunday's cards.

The Curragh stages another interesting meeting. Six go in the 1200m Airlie Stud Stakes for the juvenile fillies. MORE BEAUTIFUL was well held in the Queen Mary but this is much easier. FRENETIC looked good over 1000m last time while MOTHER EARTH decisively beat SUSSEX GARDEN last time. The problem was though it was a Group 3 it was run on much slower ground so it remaisn to be seen how the form stands up in better company on faster ground. I don't have a play in this but FRENETIC would be my choice.

The Sapphire is for the older sprinters over 1200m. A'ALI came back to form with a vengeance last time at Sandown but that was over 1000m though he did win the Papin (of which more anon) over 1100m last year. MAKE A CHALLENGE was well held in the Greenlands which is the equivalent of this level but won a Listed last time and this looks a weak Group 2.

At Chantilly, the Papin (re-routed from Deauville and 100m further) has just four runners. THE LIR JET won the Norfolk at Ascot but this isn't going to be easy. Fellow British raider VENTURA TORMENTA was well held by MASTER OF THE SEA last weekend and I can't see the drop back in trip helping.

That takes us to the two locals - Boudot rides AXDAVALLI who is a bit like THE LIR JET in that he won at 1000m last time. The filly TIGER TANAKA is unbeaten but she won over 1600m last time. 

I don't know - really I don't.

[mardigras]

On 7/17/2020 at 6:52 AM, Stodge said:

Eight have been left in Saturday's Irish Oaks at The Curragh where the ground is currently Good. ENNISTYMON comes off the back of running second in both the Ribblesdale and the English Oaks and that's solid form. She looks the pick of the four Aidan O'Brien runners though SNOW won the Munster Oaks last time (a Group 3) and is clearly improving.

The main threat to the Ballydoyle contingent looks to be CAYENNE PEPPER who was unbeaten in three before running fourth in the Group 1 Fillies Mile. She re-appeared in the Pretty Polly and chased home MAGICAL albeit at a respectable distance. She's by Australia and you'd think she get the trip well but I suspect the Ballydoyle contingent will want to put that to the test. 

I'm not playing in the race but I think ENNISTYMON is the one I like.

I couldn't believe the odds around Even So. I priced her at 2.20, 6s ahead of my second highest rated, starting at 14.6 on betfair. Not sure of the overall quality of the field however.

 

[Stodge]

Time to look back on the weekend in the northern hemisphere.

Ireland staged the feature meeting on Saturday with the Oaks run on Good/Yielding turf after quite a bit of overnight rain. EVEN SO continued the tremendous form of Colin Keane and trainer Ger Lyons who won the Irish 2000 Guineas with SISKIN (runs at Goodwood next week) but this was a scrappy race and I'm not sure it told us very much.

ENNISTYMON was very disappointing - perhaps tough races at Ascot and Epsom left their mark. CAYENNE PEPPER didn't look as happy on the ground as she had against MAGICAL (runs at Ascot on Saturday). PASSION isn't a world-beater so the overall form quality is suspect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i__6jByL8cg

In the supporting Group 2 races on Saturday, TWILIGHT PAYMENT was an impressive eight length winner of the Curragh Cup. MASTER OF REALITY looked very one paced in second. LAWS OF INDICES sprang a 66/1 shock when winning the Railway suggesting the Irish juveniles are at this stage nothing special. It was really good to see ROMANISED come home so strongly in the Minstrel defeating LANCASTER HOUSE and I wonder if he'll turn up in the Marois at Deauville next month.

Off then across the Pond for three traditional Grade 1 American events. The American Oaks at Saratoga saw a 1-2 for Winstar Stablemates with the second string PARIS LIGHTS just outbattling CRYSTAL BALL. AQUAPHOBIA won a very weak renewal of the United Nations Handicap over 2100m on the grass at Monmouth and AUTHENTIC made every yard to win the Haskell just holding off the late run of NY TRAFFIC. DR POST was well back in third.

Sunday saw another decent card at The Curragh. The Airlie Stud Stakes saw another juvenile boilover with ALOHA STAR at 33/1 getting up to floor FRENETIC and MOTHER EARTH. A'ALI made a successful journey across the Irish Sea to win the Sapphire and clearly loves a fast 1000m - I wonder if they'll let him take on BATTAASH at York. The Keane/Lyons combination picked up another nice prize with LEMISTA winning the Kilboy Estate Stakes.

At Chantilly yesterday, the traditional Anglo-French rivalry was in full flow. Sandringham Handicap winner ONASSIS followed up in Listed company and in a real head-bobber VENTURA TORMENTA inched out THE LIR JET in the Papin. However, the raiders were no match for PERSIAN KING in the Ispahan - the winner looked very useful having enjoyed the run of the race. It'll be interesting to see if Andre Fabre is tempted by a race like the Irish Champion down the line.STORMY ANTARCTIC and POGO ran well for the places.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIEuDkbJOvA

[Stodge]

Looking ahead to the coming weekend, the feature is the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot over 2400m on Saturday.

Eight have been entered, ENABLE and FANNY LOGAN from the Gosden yard and six from the Aidan O'Brien yard headed by MAGICAL and JAPAN. Incredible to think an entire Group 1 field has come from just two yards.

ENABLE is 4/5 and MAGICAL is 11/4.

The main Group 2 on Saturday is the City of York over 2000m at (not surprisingly) York. TELECASTER, who won a Group 3 nicely at Longchamp last time, is favourite among the nine entries which include the very useful ELARQAM.

Sunday's big race in Ireland is the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh. More details as we move down the week. 

[Stodge]

21 have been entered for the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh on Sunday and the latest rumour is MAGICAL will swerve another clash with ENABLE and run at The Curragh, If that happens, JAPAN will presumably stand as ENABLE's main opponent and that will be interesting as Aidan O'Brien has always seen JAPAN as a 2400 rather than 2000m horse.

Goodwood next week and with more owners allowed back on track from next Tuesday and a crowd of 5000 permitted on Saturday 1st for the Stewards' Cup, some signs of normality.

The meeting has three Group 1 races, the Sussex, the Nassau and the Goodwood Cup.

[Stodge]

Final declarations are through for Saturday's racing which is dominated by the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot. Run over 2400m, it is the first Group 1 clash at that distance between the classic generation and the older horses.

It's worth £226,840 to the winner and yet there are just four runners - ENABLE versus three from Aidan O'Brien in the forms of ANTHONY VAN DYCK, JAPAN and SOVEREIGN. 

It's a Group 1 race and all four are Group 1 winners and three have won classics. Starting with the O'Brien runners, SOVEREIGN was a runaway winner of last year's Irish Derby using tactics which were emulated by SERPENTINE at Epsom three weeks ago. On his return after nearly a year off, SOVEREIGN was third to TWILIGHT PAYMENT in the Vintage Crop and as we know the latter was a wide margin winner of the Curragh Cup last weekend.

ANTHONY VAN DYCK won the Epsom Derby in 2019 in a bunch finish but he's been mostly disappointing since. He did run well when second to GHAIYYATH in the Coronation Cup and the winner went on to beat ENABLE in the Eclipse but ANTHONY VAN DYCK didn't do much in the Hardwicke next time and frankly doesn't look good enough.

JAPAN was third to ANTHONY VAN DYCK in the 2019 Derby but improved afterward to win the Grand Prix de Paris and the Juddmonte International before running fourth to Waldgeist (and behind ENABLE) in the Arc. After a moderate run in the Prince of Wales on seasonal debut, he was third to GHAIYYATH in the Eclipse (where ENABLE was second).

ENABLE needs very little introduction - dual Arc winner and also dual King George winner and last year she did it the hard way outbattling Crystal Ocean in the final 100m. She was beaten by Waldgeist in the Arc and on seasonal re-appearance was held by a racefit GHAIYYATH for whom 2000m round Sandown on quick ground was ideal. 

This is ENABLE's trip and she should be much straighter for her Sandown run - she's 6 lbs in front of these on the numbers and while she's no punting proposition at 1/2, she'll do for me though I suspect Team Ballydoyle will try to find some way to unsettle her. IF SOVEREIGN goes off quick, she'll be staying on so a tactical race may be a possibility with the hope JAPAN can do her for toe in the final 200m but I'm not convinced.

On a 10-race card at York, the feature is the York Stakes over 2000m, a Group 2. TELECASTER looked very good in France last time but ELARQAM loves the track and may have found soft ground and 2400m too much in the Hardwicke last time. There are only seven which reduces the betting options but I quite like KING OF COMEDY at a price - he was fourth in the Juddmonte last year and on that form he has a real chance. He was beaten on re-appearance at Newbury but he wouldn't be the first Gosden horse to come on for a run.

Saturday also sees the Durban July at Greyville in South Africa but that's your hemisphere not mine.

[Stodge]

Thoughts already turning to Goodwood next week - a five day Festival starting on Tuesday. The current ground report is Good, Good to Firm in places but we're moving into an unsettled spell through the weekend so we'll see.

The opening day starts with a Group 1 and two Group 2 races. The Group 1 is the Goodwood Cup over 3200m for which seven have been entered. The race has been open to 3-y-o for some time but for many years you never saw a 3-y-o runner but three years ago STRADIVARIUS became the first to win as a 3-y-o since Lucky Moon in 1990. The 3-y-o get a lot of weight from the older horses - 15 lbs - so it's a temptation and it's fascinating to see Aidan O'Brien running the Irish Derby winner SANTIAGO.

STRADIVARIUS beat NAYEF ROAD comfortably at Ascot over 4000m on soft ground and I suspect the latter will be closer this time but STRADIVARIUS has won this three times and the Goodwood track holds no fears. The problem is SANTIAGO is no mug and is a better horse now than STRADIVARIUS was then . Before winning the Irish Derby he had won the Queen's Vase over 2800m at Ascot so you'd think 3200m wouldn't be an issue so this looks an intriguing contest to say the least. 

14 have been entered in the Vintage for the juveniles over 1400m. TWAASOL won the Woodcote at Epsom and catches my eye while the Lennox for the older horses also over 1400m has a maximum of 20 entries. LIMATO looked good at Newmarket the other day but there are a couple of interesting 3-y-o ended notably PIERRE LAPIN.

9 have been entered for the Group 1 Sussex Stakes over 1600m on Wednesday. No PALACE PIER or EARTHLIGHT, both of whom are going for the Marois over the straight 1600m at Deauville. Nonetheless, a fascinating race with Irish 2000 Guineas winner SISKIN facing Summer Mile winner MOHAATHER, English 2000 Guineas KAMEKO and the Queen Anne winner CIRCUS MAXIMUS who was second in this last year and looks a ridiculous price at 6/1.

[Stodge]

Quick update this evening.

ANTHONY VAN DYCK was scratched from the King George so just three go to post tomorrow with ENABLE 4/9 and JAPAN 5/2.

MAGICAL was diverted from the King George to Sunday's Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2000m at The Curragh and she is 1/3 favourite to see off her five rivals. BUCKHURST beat SIR DRAGONET in the Alleged while ARMORY is Group 1 placed and was a close fourth to SISKIN in the Irish 2000 Guineas but none of them should get anywhere near MAGICAL.

Next Thursday's Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood over 2000m for the fillies and mares has attracted an entry of just eight but it looks an interesting race. The impressive and unbeaten Saint-Alary winner TAWKEEL would face the Diane winner FANCY BLUE and the Falmouth winner NAZEEF.