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Stodge

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9 hours ago, Stodge said:

ANTHONY VAN DYCK was scratched from the King George so just three go to post tomorrow with ENABLE 4/9 and JAPAN 5/2.

Not a race I can get excited about. I like seeing great horses, but a 3 horse race is not my cup of tea. Hard to think of betting on it and as usual for me, only potential value with Sovereign at 14s, but just not enough in it.

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On 7/20/2020 at 8:37 PM, Stodge said:

Time to look back on the weekend in the northern hemisphere.

Ireland staged the feature meeting on Saturday with the Oaks run on Good/Yielding turf after quite a bit of overnight rain. EVEN SO continued the tremendous form of Colin Keane and trainer Ger Lyons who won the Irish 2000 Guineas with SISKIN (runs at Goodwood next week) but this was a scrappy race and I'm not sure it told us very much.

ENNISTYMON was very disappointing - perhaps tough races at Ascot and Epsom left their mark. CAYENNE PEPPER didn't look as happy on the ground as she had against MAGICAL (runs at Ascot on Saturday). PASSION isn't a world-beater so the overall form quality is suspect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i__6jByL8cg

In the supporting Group 2 races on Saturday, TWILIGHT PAYMENT was an impressive eight length winner of the Curragh Cup. MASTER OF REALITY looked very one paced in second. LAWS OF INDICES sprang a 66/1 shock when winning the Railway suggesting the Irish juveniles are at this stage nothing special. It was really good to see ROMANISED come home so strongly in the Minstrel defeating LANCASTER HOUSE and I wonder if he'll turn up in the Marois at Deauville next month.

Off then across the Pond for three traditional Grade 1 American events. The American Oaks at Saratoga saw a 1-2 for Winstar Stablemates with the second string PARIS LIGHTS just outbattling CRYSTAL BALL. AQUAPHOBIA won a very weak renewal of the United Nations Handicap over 2100m on the grass at Monmouth and AUTHENTIC made every yard to win the Haskell just holding off the late run of NY TRAFFIC. DR POST was well back in third.

Sunday saw another decent card at The Curragh. The Airlie Stud Stakes saw another juvenile boilover with ALOHA STAR at 33/1 getting up to floor FRENETIC and MOTHER EARTH. A'ALI made a successful journey across the Irish Sea to win the Sapphire and clearly loves a fast 1000m - I wonder if they'll let him take on BATTAASH at York. The Keane/Lyons combination picked up another nice prize with LEMISTA winning the Kilboy Estate Stakes.

At Chantilly yesterday, the traditional Anglo-French rivalry was in full flow. Sandringham Handicap winner ONASSIS followed up in Listed company and in a real head-bobber VENTURA TORMENTA inched out THE LIR JET in the Papin. However, the raiders were no match for PERSIAN KING in the Ispahan - the winner looked very useful having enjoyed the run of the race. It'll be interesting to see if Andre Fabre is tempted by a race like the Irish Champion down the line.STORMY ANTARCTIC and POGO ran well for the places.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIEuDkbJOvA

It was a  surprise win in the juvenile for the Golden based stable.They were hoping for some possible black type placing, but not to win.Stable is up beat with this progressive filly.

Haven't heard anything about the 2 year old  filly Sloane Peterson running for the stable at The Curragh. She is well bred and they paid good money for her as a yearling.I thought she was good value  at 10/1 with Chris Hayes up,for an inform stable.

Edited by Midnight Caller
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18 hours ago, mardigras said:

Not a race I can get excited about. I like seeing great horses, but a 3 horse race is not my cup of tea. Hard to think of betting on it and as usual for me, only potential value with Sovereign at 14s, but just not enough in it.

Nice win by Enable. Sovereign ran well I thought, for second.

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Starting the review of the weekend, Saturday saw a disappointing three runner turn out for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes. As a race, it was a non-event. Run in a downpour (as it often is strangely given it's the end of July), SOVEREIGN set the early fractions but Frankie Dettori was always comfortable on ENABLE and with JAPAN in trouble off the home turn, Dettori just had to push ENABLE into the lead and she came away to win by five and a half lengths.

This was her third King George and a remarkable achievement and one wonders if she had been sound as a 4-y-o whether she'd have won it four times. Dettori has now matched Lester Piggott having won the race seven times.

In truth, it told us nothing - JAPAN was very disappointing and I'm not sure if the rain that fell before the race hindered him but he should have been closer. ENABLE now heads to York (possibly) before Paris and there will likely be a clash with LOVE which, to be honest, many are anxious to see. LOVE has looked very good among her own gender and generation but to go against the older fillies at York and then the boys in Paris will tell us so much more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BfgbDBdGu8

Up at York, ASPETAR was a surprise winner of the Group 2 York Stakes in which ELARQAM ran a shocker coming home last. FOX CHAIRMAN was second and it was poignant to see LORD GLITTERS, whose enterprising owner passed away last week, come home well in third.

In America on Saturday evening, VOLATILE was a smooth winner of the Alfred Vanderbilt at Saratoga -  he's clearly a very fast horse and the Breeders Cup Dirt Sprint looks the obvious target.

Yesterday, MAGICAL was a comfortable winner of the Tattersalls Gold Cup and it was nice to see SIR DRAGONET continue his return to form. The winner is no mug and I imagine "the lads" will want to keep her and LOVE apart until Paris so I suspect MAGICAL will go for the Juddmonte at York or perhaps she will wait for the Irish Champion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hvD7W4ECR8

I forgot to mention the Group 1 in Germany yesterday which was very remiss - the Grosser Dallmayr Preis over 2000m at Munich - and this saw BARNEY ROY win another Group 1. Since his return to racing after an abortive career at stud, BARNEY ROY has been well campaigned and while his limitations at Group 1 level in the UK have been exposed, he has been able to win weaker races abroad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaTz6e1X720

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On 7/26/2020 at 12:16 AM, Midnight Caller said:

It was a  surprise win in the juvenile for the Golden based stable.They were hoping for some possible black type placing, but not to win.Stable is up beat with this progressive filly.

Haven't heard anything about the 2 year old  filly Sloane Peterson running for the stable at The Curragh. She is well bred and they paid good money for her as a yearling.I thought she was good value  at 10/1 with Chris Hayes up,for an inform stable.

Ran fifth at The Curragh yesterday. Perfectly respectable debut and will come on a lot for it. Breeding suggests 1400 or 1600m might be ideal.

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Goodwood's Glorious Meeting starts tomorrow with the ground still just on the slow side of Good.

Wednesday's Group 1 Sussex Stakes has just seven runners. The slower ground has meant SISKIN has eased to 9/4 with MOHAATHER at 11/4, KAMEKO at 4s and WICHITA at 5s with CIRCUS MAXIMUS at 11/2. We simply don't know if the 3-y-o, in receipt of 8 lbs, will be up to taking on the older horses. I'm not a big fan of SISKIN or KAMEKO, the two Guineas winners and prefer MOHAATHER and CIRCUS MAXIMUS.

Further down the week, Saturday sees the Group 2 Lillie Langtry over 2800m. Ten have been entered but just two 3-y-o to take on the likes of ENBIHAAR (who will come on from her seasonal bow) and MANUELA DE VEGA who has enjoyed two easy wins round Haydock but this is a lot tougher.

Deauville starts its August Festival this coming weekend and the Rothschild is the feature next Sunday. This is for the fillies and mares over the straight 1600m. The ground is currently Bon (or Good if you prefer).

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On to Thursday and seven have been declared for the Nassau. FANCY BLUE brings some big 3-y-o form to the table having won a bunch finish for the Diane last time but I just have a niggle about the quality of that form. NAZEEF won the Falmouth and this filly has advanced through the grades and she'll do for me if she handles the undulations. The trip is an unknown but she has coped with straight 1600m well enough so this easy turning 2000m should be within her compass. DEIRDRE won this last year and a repeat can't be ruled out 

The one I like is MAGIC WAND who won the Lanwades convincingly and was then fourth in the Eclipse which was mixing it with the very best. Back among her own gender and with Frankie Dettori up, she has a real chance at 6s.

The Group 2 Richmond over 1200m has seven runners and YAZAMAN has twice chased home TACTICAL who is probably the top juvenile at present. It doesn't look a strong renewal.

Finally, just a note Derby favourite ENGLISH KING re-appears in the Gordon Stakes over 2400m en route to the Leger. He was fifth at Epsom but he has to face runner-up KHALIFA SAT and sixth placed MOGUL so this isn't an easy challenge at all.

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The first day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting took place on a fine but breezy afternoon with the ground good.

The feature Goodwood Cup over 3200m was a tactical affair and to be honest STRADIVARIUS won in spite of the way the race was run. It probably wasn't Dettori's finest hour in the saddle but the horse got him out of an unpromising position 300m down. NAYEF ROAD ran a fine race in defeat - his jockey controlled it from the start, kept it slow and tried to draw the speed out of STRADIVARIUS and SANTIAGO. It didn't work but it was the only sensible tactic and you can't fault them for not thinking the race through.

SANTIAGO looked to be going well 400m out but didn't for me get home against the older more experienced types. He's still a stayer in the making and this time next year the story may be very different.

The winner presumably heads to York for the Lonsdale before a final run in the Arc and while you'd think he's unlikely to win in Paris he could well run a place - on a line through GHAIYYATH he's not that far behind ENABLE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AK03FwXYTaU

On the undercard, BATTLEGROUND followed up his Chesham win with a strong performance in the  Vintage defeating DEVIOUS COMPANY and you'd have to say on that evidence BATTLEGROUND and MASTER OF THE SEAS come out as the top two Guineas prospects for next year at this time. BATTLEGROUND is the first foal of Found out of War Front and it doesn't come much better than that. 

The Lennox saw SPACE BLUES establish himself as the leading 1400m horse in Europe with a commanding performance in a race which often produces a bunch finish. I suppose the Maurice de Gheest over 1300m in which he was third last year as a 3-y-o, is an option as is the Foret, the only Group 1 for older horses in Europe over 1400m. DUKE OF HAZZARD ran a fine race on a course where he often performs but was readily held by the winner.

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I'll comment more on the racing at Goodwood as I catch up with it (I have to work for a living unfortunately).

A big blow for the track today with the announcement from Boris Johnson the planned 5,000 crowd for tomorrow's meeting would no longer be supported. Let's be clear - the 5,000 intended were NOT going to be normal paying members of the public but Goodwood Annual Members who, during the 5-day Glorious meeting, have exclusive use of the Richmond Enclosure. In a sense, they have already "paid" through their annual membership fee of £564 in year one and £384 for renewal.

Tomorrow was for Members and their guest but Goodwood MD Adam Waterworth is complaining about the late nature of the cancellation (yes, well) but the course is looking at a six-figure loss based on preparing the enclosures and the picnic hampers ordered by the members. It will now be August 15th at the earliest before crowds can be re-admitted so I think it's looking unlikely there will be spectators at the York Ebor meeting.

Racing goes on however and tomorrow is Stewards Cup day at Goodwood. A really hot day (36c in London this afternoon) has dried the ground to Good to Firm but storms are forecast and from personal experience I know Goodwood is prone to some violent thunderstorms.

The Group 2 Lillie Langtry over 2800m has just four runners. MANUELA DE VEGA has done all her best running on a soft surface and was second in this on fast ground last year thrashed five lengths by ENBIHAAR who loves to hear her feet rattle. She didn't appreciate the soft ground on her seasonal bow and I expect a much better effort tomorrow.

Two traditional American Grade 1 races tomorrow evening at Saratoga - MIDNIGHT BISOU is probably the best filly or mare in North America and she bids to follow up last year's romp in the Personal Ensign. She was a close second to MAXIMUM SECURITY in the Saudi Cup back in January and trotted up in a Grade 2 last time. She should be much too good for these.

The Whitney is the equivalent for the older colts and while it's a small field it's a quality field. Though he's now a 7-y-o, TOM'S D'ETAT is in the form of his life and has won his last four including the Oaklawn Mile (beating IMPROBABLE )and a Grade 2 last time when he easily saw off  BY MY STANDARDS. IMPROBABLE looked very good winning the Hollywood Gold Cup last time and I think he might be the one.

The Deauville August Meeting kicks off tomorrow and the ground in Normandy is just on the slow side. Six stand for Sunday's Rothschild. WATCH ME won the Coronation at Ascot last year and finished fourth in the Marois and third in the Opera so that's solid form at Group 1 level. She returned with a pleasing win in Listed company and will be hard to beat. The Irish filly KNOW IT ALL has won two in Group 3 company so this will be a big step while Godolphin run two, the pick of which looks to be the Charlie Appleby-trained SUMMER ROMANCE. Like KNOW IT ALL, she is a 3-y-o and gets weight from the favourite but she was beaten a long way in the 1000 Guineas.

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Day 2 at Goodwood took place in sunny conditions and on perfect ground.

The feature was the Sussex and if you've not seen it I'd take a look as there's a  huge amount of controversy and comment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw0z8TCjbxc

MOHAATHER won and in the end did it well and you'd have to upgrade the performance given the trouble he got into as VATICAN CITY weakened rapidly. Crowley was forced to switch wide and the horse's speed got him home and out of trouble (this seems to happen a lot at Goodwood). I don't know if they will go for the Marois (probably too soon) so that means the Moulin and then back for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

I backed CIRCUS MAXIMUS each way at 6s so made a few pennies. I thought Ryan Moore rode a superb race but had he broken better and not hard to do so much up the hill to take the lead, he might have had more left in the final 100m.

SISKIN got there and discovered how hard it is to pass CIRCUS MAXIMUS - I wondered if he really got a true 1600m and I did just think in the final 50m he wasn't going forward but it was a fine effort.

KAMEKO was unfortunate - Oisin Murphy came on and admitted it was jockey error but the problem at Goodwood is if you follow the leader you need a gap out and that doesn't always come on a downhill easy track. Again, the start didn't help - I suspect Oisin would have preferred a slower break to get a position but he was leading after 100m. 

A rematch with MOHAATHER at Longchamp or Ascot looks very likely and while the two runs since Newmarket haven't worked out for the 2000 Guineas winner, it's far too early to dismiss him.

The 3-y-o were beaten by the older horses but there wasn't much in it and with another month or two it might be different and indeed a horse like PALACE PIER would have been a fascinating contender and we'll see if the Marois provides further enlightenment.

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Slowly catching up with last week's action and I've now seen the third day at Goodwood by which time the hot sunshine had dried the ground to Good to Firm.

The feature Nassau Stakes over 2000m for the fillies and mares saw, in contrast to both the Goodwood Cup and the Sussex on the previous two days, the 3-y-o decisively defeat the older fillies. I'm not sure what Frankie Dettori thought he was doing on MAGIC WAND who usually comes from off the pace but FANCY BLUE was always in the perfect position and let's not forget she was second in the Irish 1000 Guineas and won the Diane beating ALPINE STAR who had won the Coronation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hERSvYzZRyE

ONE VOICE ran a huge race in second and was closing the winner down at the line. She had come out of a rough Group 2 at The Curragh so the question is whether she improved a lot or the winner didn't quite run  to her Diane form.

I thought the unlucky horse was NAZEEF who got into every dark corner going but finished well for third and you certainly couldn't say she didn't see out the trip. I'd love to see her in a race like the Juddmonte or the Irish Champion.

The Group 2 Richmond Stakes saw a convincing win for SUPREMACY who came home four lengths clear of YAZAMAN. The winner had won a Windsor maiden but his trainer Clive Cox is developing a real reputation as a fine handler of sprinting juveniles and 3-y-o and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see this year's winner emulate the 2019 winner, GOLDEN HORDE, from the same stable who went on to win the Commonwealth Cup.

The Gordon Stakes is a Group 3 these days but it was the first real test of the Epsom Derby form. However, ENGLISH KING ran badly and it was MOGUL who restored part of his tarnished reputation by beating HIGHLAND CHIEF. With Epsom second KHALIFA SAT held in fifth, the questions over the quality and value of SERPENTINE's win at Epsom remain.

I backed AL SALT each way in the 2000m handicap for the 3-y-o on the basis of his good win last time but you could have knocked me down with several feathers when 50/1 blowout JUNKANOO won. Okay, mine crawled into third and I got back a few pennies but it was another odd race as you get on the Sussex Downs.  

Edited by Stodge
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On 8/1/2020 at 11:10 AM, Midnight Caller said:

I see Sir Mark Todd has a runner, Tippler at Sandown tomorrow. 

He only has a handful of runners so far and to be honest they aren't much.

He's had one winner, PETIT BAY, who won at Leicester at the end of June off a mark of 47 and she couldn't quite defy a 9lb hike next time but still ran well in defeat.

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23 minutes ago, Stodge said:

I backed AL SALT each way in the 2000m handicap for the 3-y-o on the basis of his good win last time but you could have knocked me down with several feathers when 50/1 blowout JUNKANOO won. Okay, mine crawled into third and I got back a few pennies but it was another odd race as you get on the Sussex Downs.  

Interesting, I certainly didn't think Junkanoo should be at 50s.

gwd2.jpg.1d64982182530651ed365477da7f8c14.jpg

He was being bet on at 140s 5 minutes before start time before shortening leading up to start, to start at 53.2 (after scratching of Lucander).

Edited by mardigras
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Day 4 of the Goodwood Festival took place on a scorching hot day in southern England (the third hottest on record at Heathrow) and, despite overnight watering, the ground had quickened despite still being called Good to Firm.

The feature was the Group 2 King George Stakes over 1000m and BATTAASH duly collected his fourth renewal of the race and in the process smashed his own track record lowering it from 56.20 to 55.62 which was mightily impressive. To be fair, BATTAASH had every right to win this and Crowley had to give him a couple of taps as GLASS SLIPPERS closed with menace 250m down but those who had taken the 2/7 odds never had a moment's worry.

Next stop is the Nunthorpe followed by the Abbaye. Trainer Charlie Hills isn't keen on the Breeders Cup Sprint which would be 1200m round a bend. To be honest, with only 22 races under his belt and he's a gelding so BATTAASH could easily do a couple of seasons yet at the top.

A strong supporting card of Group 3 races worth a quick mention - ONE MASTER won the Foret last year and won the Oak Tree despite hating the ground and some traffic trouble. She's a class act and if it comes up soft on Arc day, she'll take a lot of beating. The Bonhams Stakes was a really rough race - TILSIT prevailed but it looked horrendous as he cannoned into MY OBERON on the rail. In many other jurisdictions, TILSIT would have lost the race and Ryan Moore would have banned for weeks but in the UK it's a more lenient environment - TILSIT kept the race and Moore got five days for careless riding. If you can find the race, have a look.

The Glorious Stakes over 2400m looked a trappy contest for the older horses and to be honest it was simply PABLO ESCOBARR's turn to continue a fantastic run for trainer William Haggas and jockey Tom Marquand. DESERT ENCOUNTER finished second and I'm sure they will be looking to another tilt at the Canadian International.

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The big news over here has been the media deal which will keep racing on free-to-air for the next three years. ITV Racing, which has been widely praised for its output, will continue providing regular Saturday and midweek slots until 2023. 

I'm not always convinced by the coverage which tends to shy away from anything too negative or controversial (which is a shame because the specialist channels are completely in the pocket of the racing establishment). The problem is if you criticise the jockeys they will refuse to talk to you and that's seen as a big part of the coverage.

The almost unpronounceable AMHRANN NA BHAFAINN, who finished third behind his stable companion SERPENTINE in the English Derby, has been ruled out for the rest of the season following surgery on a leg fracture discovered after he was unexpectedly beaten at 8/15 in a maiden at Naas on Monday evening.

It would have been Shergar Cup day at Ascot this coming weekend but even with that pointless exercise not taking place, it's still, a very quiet weekend up here.

In Ireland, it's the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes for the juveniles over 1200m on Sunday and 15 have been entered. The Molecomb winner STEEL BULL has been entered as have VENTURA TORMENTA and THE LIR JET, who were first and second in the Papin three weeks ago. Aidan O'Brien has entered six so we'll see how the race shapes up later in the week.

In France, the Deauville meeting continues this weekend - Saturday sees the rescheduled Hocquart for the 3-y-o over 2500m while Sunday sees the Maurice de Gheest over 1300m. 27 have been entered with first forfeit tomorrow (UK). SPACE BLUES is a confirmed runner but this is often a very classy race. 

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23 hours ago, mardigras said:

Interesting, I certainly didn't think Junkanoo should be at 50s.

gwd2.jpg.1d64982182530651ed365477da7f8c14.jpg

He was being bet on at 140s 5 minutes before start time before shortening leading up to start, to start at 53.2 (after scratching of Lucander).

I'm not sure where that betting show comes from but I couldn't fancy JUNKANOO at all. He had run fourth to GLENTIES over 2350m at Windsor the time before and that horse had run last the day before over 2400m.

He couldn't win a Class 4 and they pitched him into a warm Class 2 handicap. I think he had the run of the race and one or two others didn't but he wasn't the most obvious pick in that heat.

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9 minutes ago, Stodge said:

I'm not sure where that betting show comes from but I couldn't fancy JUNKANOO at all. He had run fourth to GLENTIES over 2350m at Windsor the time before and that horse had run last the day before over 2400m.

He couldn't win a Class 4 and they pitched him into a warm Class 2 handicap. I think he had the run of the race and one or two others didn't but he wasn't the most obvious pick in that heat.

The betting I referred to came from Betfair.

I don't do what would be considered in any way, conventional form analysis.

I don't consider the class of race a horse raced in or is racing in. Who it raced against previously and what those horses did since. I simply assess the ability of a horse by assessing the individual performance in each start it has had to form a view on their ability - and then compare my assessed ability with the runners it faces in the upcoming event.

Barriers, jockeys, trainers, gear (weight to a large extent), are not even considered. The suitability of the track/track condition/distance form part of a suitability assessment.

And definitely the last start is no more considered than previous starts. I'm looking for horses that the market is ignoring that I believe to be better than the market assessment. 

It seems to work. I've been doing this for years. 

 

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44 minutes ago, mardigras said:

The betting I referred to came from Betfair.

I don't do what would be considered in any way, conventional form analysis.

I don't consider the class of race a horse raced in or is racing in. Who it raced against previously and what those horses did since. I simply assess the ability of a horse by assessing the individual performance in each start it has had to form a view on their ability - and then compare my assessed ability with the runners it faces in the upcoming event.

Barriers, jockeys, trainers, gear (weight to a large extent), are not even considered. The suitability of the track/track condition/distance form part of a suitability assessment.

And definitely the last start is no more considered than previous starts. I'm looking for horses that the market is ignoring that I believe to be better than the market assessment. 

It seems to work. I've been doing this for years. 

 

I disagree. You do form analysis but you don't apply the same weighting other analysts do to some aspects of the form which is fair enough. 

That analysis is also biased toward the betting aspects just as others who draw up their own tissue or odds and compare that with what the bookies are offering.

If you considered JUNKANOO a 10/1 shot, he would look a steal at 50/1 though that is more reflective of the weight of money rather than the horse's actual chance as you say.

Odds compilers don't normally get it so wrong but when they do (in this instance) the bookies are happy as those who follow the market would have ignored the horse.

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I wouldn't say what I do was form analysis, really solely performance analysis. As I don't even look where the horse placed or the margin behind the winner. 

So whilst I do place different emphasis on things, most of the things that are used commonly in typical form analysis, I give zero weight to.

My analysis isn't biased so much towards the betting aspects, more that I bet only when I perceive I have an advantage. When I assessed that race, I didn't know what the market would assess the price to be, I simply assessed his ability.

And once I have assessed that, I model the race by working out what time I think the horse will run, what it at best could do, and at worst, do that for every horse and model the race thousands of times to get the %chance I come up with.

Most punters I know look at class of race horse ran in, running in. Who beat it, what they did since (franking form?). Whether it was unlucky, whether the extra/less distance will suit better based on how it raced last time etc. Running on etc. Where the horse placed, it's margin from the winner. Better rider this time. Barrier suits. Going down in weight. Blinkers on etc.

They're too complicated for me, and I don't know how to relate those elements to the impact on the horses chance.

 

 

Edited by mardigras
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Just a few bits and pieces from up here this evening where it is again going to be very hot in the south but poor Hamilton in Scotland have lost tomorrow's meeting due to heavy rain.

As I've said, not much happening in the UK this weekend but busier elsewhere. 

Just six go in Saturday's Hocquart at Deauville - over 2500m, it's usually run much earlier in the season at Longchamp but now it looks like a trial for the Grand Prix de Paris in September. Raiders from Italy and England take on the locals. TUSCAN GAZE won the Italian Derby while Charlie Appleby brings over VOLKAN STAR, a horse I like a lot. He was well beaten by future French Derby winner MISHRIFF on seasonal debut but then beat subsequent Dante winner THUNDEROUS at Newmarket before coming to Longchamp and winning a Group 3 beating KETIL who re-opposes. PAO ALTO was sixth in the Jockey Club and I don't quite see why he should be closer on this occasion.

Eight run in the Travers at Saratoga on Saturday evening (UK). The Travers is normally the midsummer championship race run after the Triple Crown and often puts those who won or ran well in the three Triple Crown races against the later-developing but fast improving types. This year, of course, we've only had one leg of the Triple Crown so perhaps this is really the second leg of a Quadruple Crown. TIS THE LAW was a convincing winner of the Belmont and it's hard to see why he shouldn't follow up. UNCLE CHUCK sauntered away with the Los Alamitos Derby last time and while that's respectable I can't see him bothering TIS THE LAW.

12 have been entered for Sunday's Maurice de Gheest over 1300m at Deauville. This looks a decent renewal with the top French juvenile of last year, EARTHLIGHT, heading the market. He re-opposes with GOLDEN HORDE having beaten the Clive Cox-trained runner a neck in last year's Middle Park. GOLDEN HORDE won the Commonwealth Cup before finishing third in the July Cup. EARTHLIGHT swerved the classics but looked perfectly good on his re-appearance winning a Listed race.

It's not just a two-horse race by any means. SPACE BLUES won the Lennox at Goodwood last week and while this is 100m shorter, it shouldn't be an issue and he has obvious claims though he's never won in Group 1 company. WICHITA and LOPE Y FERNANDEZ represent Aidan O'Brien and both have been placed in classics so both command respect. I though WICHITA slightly disappointing in the Sussex last week while LOPE Y FERNANDEZ was well behind GOLDEN HORDE at Ascot but was a close second to PINATUBO in the Jean Prat and that puts him right in this.

Up to now, with the exception of the staying fillies, the older horses have dominated but time is on the side of the 3-y-o but they only get 4 lbs from the likes of SPACE BLUES who is at the top of his form. He's 11/2 and I might have a play at those odds.

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With the proposed crowd "trial" aborted at the last moment, it was a subdued afternoon for the final day of the Goodwood meeting. The ground remained Good to Firm and the weather remained fantastic. On quite a low-key final day (in terms of quality), the Group 2 Lillie Langtry was a disappointing affair with just three fillies going to post for the 2800m race. ENBIHAAR was expected to win and she did so without too much fuss. The seasonal debut on unsuitably slow ground at Newmarket had clearly blown away the cobwebs and she did this very nicely. Future plans seem  to vary between the Park Hill at Doncaster and a possible tilt at the Irish Leger.

At Deauville on Saturday, the top horse in my note book, ARRIVISTE, was pitched into a Group 3 from a Class 4 handicap and not surprisingly found it a bit much. She finished fourth, five lengths behind RAABIHAH who had herself finished a close fourth, beaten less than a length, in the Diane behind Nassau winner FANCY BLUE, Coronation winner ALPINE STAR and Irish 1000 Guineas winner PEACEFUL so that looks solid.

Off to Saratoga and MIDNIGHT BISOU was unexpectedly turned over in the Personal Ensign. She raced a little lazily and never looked like getting past VERACIOUS who battled gamely. In the Whitney, favourite TOM'S D'ETAT completely blew the start which is so important in the American races. He did well to finish third but this handed the race to IMPROBABLE who came home without too much problem. It will be interesting to see if there is a rematch in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Sunday at Deauville saw the Group 1 Rothschild and while WATCH ME won it, she made heavy weather of it. Both the placed horses, HALF LIGHT and in particular the Irish 3-y-o filly KNOW IT ALL, ran above their previous efforts and I just have the sense this wasn't a strong renewal. 

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Final fields are through for Sunday's big races in Ireland and France.

10 go for the Phoenix Stakes over 1200m at The Curragh.  STEEL BULL won the Molecomb at Goodwood over 1000m while VENTURA TORMENTA and THE LIR JET were first and second in the Papin over 1200m and that form looks more solid. ST MARK'S BASILICA is by Siyouni out of a Galileo mare and was sent off 6/4 favourite on debut but finished second over this course and distance nearly a fortnight ago. 

I think VENTURA TORMENTA is the one to follow up the Papin success.

No changes for the Maurice de Gheest after today's final forfeit.

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First part of the weekend review covers the Saturday action. 

At Deauville, the local PORT GUILLAUME was a convincing winner of the Hocquart and looks a key player for the Grand Prix de Paris. He was fifth in the Jockey Club and the step up in trip was just what he wanted. The British raider VOLKAN STAR was disappointing.

We may be still trying to establish the pecking order among the 3-y-o in Europe but in North America, there are no such problems. TIS THE LAW was a majestic winner of the Travers and you'll go a long way to see an easier winner of a top event. He won by five and a half lengths on the bridle and I can't see one to stop him in the rescheduled Preakness or Kentucky Derby and perhaps from there to the Breeders Cup Classic before the big winter prizes in the Middle East.

As for the fillies, there's a new superstar in the shape of GAMINE who obliterated the field in the Test winning by seven lengths in a jaw-dropping 1:20.84 for the 1400m. She won the Acorn by 19 lengths on her previous outing so she is a real machine and I hope we'll see plenty of her in the autumn.

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