Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, VvD said: We're quite happy with our tipping strategy thanks. Rather than worrying about what we're tipping, you should just try to have your team win a match sometime - how many team losses in a row is that now? and we all know you won't play your Joker against us. that's 1 in a row for the KKs, old son ...and 4 in a row prior to that with the Maxis... but I note you didn't acknowledge the many Maxi wins in a row (or points accumulated) prior to those losses ... ...count yourselves very lucky to have caught the Ferdies on a bad bad day at the cowshed MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Say No More said: Yes I think you're right Howie (although there were 16 Joker plays). Yes there are still 6 teams capable of doing it, but the probability is not high. I'd happily take 6 points from our Joker play. details please ...from Mustelid Memory Bank #54 I think Maxis and TJG got an 8pter in the recent Comp. Edited July 4, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Globederby19 said: Bugger. the only time Zig scores Zero and your random generator failed PJ . A chance at redemption gone begging. Some rather fortunate wins there on a tough day at the office, and some Joker plays out of the way early to make life easier. Well done team Turbo,s. Gobstopper racing tomorrow at Warrnambool Rees. I see he paid 4.80 for second on 12 June in a 2480m flat race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, craigos1 said: I just think teams are to close to expect a 10 pointer Maximus No expectation of a 10pter Craig ...just saying that in a 7 Round league contest with no playoffs to qualify for, an 8 or 10pt Joker play would make a huge difference if any team(s) can 'pull it off' ..so far two have tried and failed. Also making the point that Comp points scored when you lose could be more critical than in a longer Comp with playoffs at the end. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hesi said: Gobstopper racing tomorrow at Warrnambool Rees. I see he paid 4.80 for second on 12 June in a 2480m flat race He,s on fire. When he is in the zone , he is a bloody good horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Say No More said: On what? points from Joker plays in recent Comp ..Mustelid Memory not necessarily reliable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigos1 Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Say No More said: As Howie noted only one Joker play out of 16 earned more than 6 points in the last Super comp. If you look at probability, there are two ways to earn more than 6 points when playing your Joker: 1. You win 5-0 and you earn at least 8 points (10 if you post a team profit). If you consider every H2H match a 50:50 chance then the probability of winning 5-0 is 1 in 32, or just over 3% 2. You win 4-1 and you post a team profit. Again if each H2H match is a coin toss then the probability of winning 4-1 is 5/32 or 15.6%. The probability of posting a team profit is slightly beyond my basic stats knowledge - there's an 85% expected return in there somewhere and then some means and standard deviations. However if I look at the last Super comp there were 29 team profit bonus points earned from 112 attempts (25.9%). So multiplying 15.6% x 25.9% = just over 4%. Add the 3% (option 1) and the 4% (option 2) together and you're looking at a crude probability of 7%, which is not far from the 1 in 16 that we observed in the last comp. And thats why I am more than happy with 4 points today😆😆 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 32 minutes ago, Maximus said: points from Joker plays in recent Comp ..Mustelid Memory not necessarily reliable Crikey Max. I thought Howie had verbal diahorea until you materialized. Apologys Howie, I take it all back.😉 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Globederby19 said: Crikey Max. I thought Howie had verbal diahorea until you materialized. Apologys Howie, I take it all back.😉 must mean Gobstopper is the omen bet for tomorrer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Maximus said: ' ..so far two have tried and failed. So far two have tried and failed😁😁😁😁😎😂😁😄😆😎🧨 Stevie N I think you hit a nerve playing our Joker against the Kats, how dare you!!! You see with our aggregate today those 6 points are nearly as good as 6 1/2 I thought as a less fancied team we done ok today I look forward to the Kats Joker play anything less that $1900 and 6 points will be a massive FAIL!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, VC! said: So far two have tried and failed😁😁😁😁😎😂😁😄😆😎🧨 Stevie N I think you hit a nerve playing our Joker against the Kats, how dare you!!! You see with our aggregate today those 6 points are nearly as good as 6 1/2 I thought as a less fancied team we done ok today I look forward to the Kats Joker play anything less that $1900 and 6 points will be a massive FAIL!!!!! I thought as a less fancied team we done ok today You did very well, which was acknowledged by me soon after the last (perhaps you overlooked it or classified it as verbal diarrhoea). Can there be a less fancied team than the Kats? The defending champion Chiefs vs the team that finished last last time, and in SNM's 'pick the finishing order' thread is predicted to finish last or near last again (including by Stevie N, who had the kojonos to 'go hard and go early' with your Joker. Well done that man!). There are not many members of the Kat Fanciers Club, so the rank outsiders did well to earn 1 point from a narrow loss! None of the other sides that copped a loss today earned a point. ...as for the $1900 and 8+pts ..every side should be aiming for 8 or 10pts when they play the Joker. We'd accept $1,320.20 when it's our turn ... and given our lowly status, its unlikely we'll get there. MM PS: How many other captains want to flourish their Joker in the Kats' direction? After today, probably 6. Bring it on. Edited July 4, 2020 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TooFast Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Maximus said: PS: How many other captains want to flourish their Joker in the Kats' direction? After today, probably 6. Bring it on. Not me .... I said at the outset that Mighty Blues 100% wouldn't be playing our Joker against the Ferdies or the Hurricanes. Nothing's changed there. And very, very unlikely to play it against the Crusaders. (and we didn't..... phew ...bullet dodged there 😊). The two teams I mentioned as being 'on my radar' are the Turbos and the Barbarians, and nothing's changed there, either. PJ mentioned yesterday that the Barbarians had 4 un-replaced scratchings in just the one race ..... so I'm suspecting that the perfect Joker-play target has presented itself. Watch this space. 😄 Edited July 4, 2020 by TooFast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted July 4, 2020 Share Posted July 4, 2020 4 hours ago, Maximus said: I thought as a less fancied team we done ok today Less(er) fancied team in reference to the Hesinator Well played yesterday top scorer Now it’s time to move on!!! BTW Chiefs 6 Kats 1 Just saying😎 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pegs pride Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Moving forward team!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brown fox Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 Haha.Dead right there Peg.Started yesterday with a BB collect in the first and thought this is too easy.That unfortunatly was my first and last collect😪 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 18 hours ago, Globederby19 said: He,s on fire. When he is in the zone , he is a bloody good horse. what a fabulous courageous win by Gobstopper in the Lafferty. Looked gone for all money at the 100m ..that's 2 of Max's 3-race jumps multi home ( Bee Tee Junior was the first). Just need Shamal to complete the hat-trick for the Kiwis for a decent payout 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 5, 2020 Share Posted July 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maximus said: what a fabulous courageous win by Gobstopper in the Lafferty. Looked gone for all money at the 100m ..that's 2 of Max's 3-race jumps multi home ( Bee Tee Junior was the first). Just need Shamal to complete the hat-trick for the Kiwis for a decent payout Yeah, that Monjeur blood to the fore. He is starting to repay some patient handling, and was a good call to leave him in Aussie. I wonder if Mr Hepinstall was at the track to watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taniwha99 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One Perfect Day Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 On 7/5/2020 at 1:42 PM, Maximus said: what a fabulous courageous win by Gobstopper in the Lafferty. Looked gone for all money at the 100m ..that's 2 of Max's 3-race jumps multi home ( Bee Tee Junior was the first). Just need Shamal to complete the hat-trick for the Kiwis for a decent payout Mr Max and Mr Rees , I was lucky enough to get my Multi at Warrnambool up thanks to " The Stopper ". Just fantastic to watch a Thoroughbred Jumper going over The Hurdles to The Theme Of " Chariot's Of Fire " . Stay Healthy and Safe. Hierarchal 12:15pm Warrnambool R2 1st Bee Tee Junior 12:55pm Warrnambool R3 1st Gobstopper 1:35pm Warrnambool R4 1st 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One Perfect Day Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 On 7/4/2020 at 3:25 PM, Maximus said: 0.00 Zac 101.00 Hesi time for a Zac Attack?????????????? Mr Max , I did turn up on time. Sadly , my fellow Team Mate's decided to wander off to Kairau Vineyard after Race (9) Nine . Stay Healthy and Safe Everyone. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 2 hours ago, One Perfect Day said: Mr Max , I did turn up on time. Sadly , my fellow Team Mate's decided to wander off to Kairau Vineyard after Race (9) Nine . Stay Healthy and Safe Everyone. I hope Max doesn't cop Zac when PJ's (allegedly) random draw generator fires up for the Ferdies v Kats match! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 7 hours ago, Maximus said: I hope Max doesn't cop Zac when PJ's (allegedly) random draw generator fires up for the Ferdies v Kats match! Yr safe. It's broken. Ziggy will attest to that ,much to his relief🤣 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 9 hours ago, One Perfect Day said: Mr Max and Mr Rees , I was lucky enough to get my Multi at Warrnambool up thanks to " The Stopper ". Just fantastic to watch a Thoroughbred Jumper going over The Hurdles to The Theme Of " Chariot's Of Fire " . Stay Healthy and Safe. Hierarchal 12:15pm Warrnambool R2 1st Bee Tee Junior 12:55pm Warrnambool R3 1st Gobstopper 1:35pm Warrnambool R4 1st That,s what one would call " one perfect day". Well done. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWJ Posted July 11, 2020 Author Share Posted July 11, 2020 Round 2 - Saturday Jul 11 Race 1 - Ellerslie R31st - 9 Gorgeous Geisha W-$6.40 2nd - 4 Air Centre Q-$17.80 Scr: 7,10 0 CHIEFS (1st) 0.00 2 CRUSADERS (2nd)128.00 The Chiefs all miss in the first as Tom and Robert find the Tiley tearaway to hand the 'Saders a nice advantage. 0.00 Stevie N 0.00 Rob 0.00 Punter Pete 0.00 Craig 0.00 Ian 0.00 Rex 0.00 Jack 64.00 Robert 0.00 Gee 64.00 Tom 0 BLUES (7th) 0.00 0 HURRICANES (3rd) 0.00 The runner-up would have given the Blues a nice lead but no one found the Ocean Park winner. 0.00 Geoff 0.00 Porky 0.00 Gordy 0.00 Hesi 0.00 Pete 0.00 John 0.00 Howie 0.00 The Crucible 0.00 Roland 0.00 Virgil 2 BARBARIANS (6th) 128.00 1 KAURI KATS (5th) 64.00 Old tom Graeme gets the Kats underway but replies from Richie and Moose give the Babas an early edge. 0.00 Mardy 0.00 Sharne 0.00 Ziggy 0.00 Max 0.00 Pam 64.00 Graeme 64.00 Moose 0.00 Rocky 64.00 Richie 0.00 Jen 2 FERDIES (8th) 192.00 1 TURBOS (4th) 128.00 Ray and the myopic Squirrel make a start for the Manawatu but replies from Heather, Maurice and Ashoka hand the 'Naki an early lead. 64.00 Ashoka 0.00 Steve P 0.00 PJ 0.00 Gary 0.00 Zac 64.00 Blind Squirrel 64.00 Maurice 64.00 Ray 64.00 Heather 0.00 Rees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brown fox Posted July 11, 2020 Share Posted July 11, 2020 And my love affair with Nigel Tiley just gets stronger and stronger🥰 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.