Hesi Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Rules are straightforward You have $200 to spend on the market below, spend it all now, spend part now, or wait till closer to election day. Comp closes Fri midnight Sept 18. I will change the market prices around as info comes to light, such as today with Falloon and as polls get released, but you retain the price you bet at originally Winning prize, is $200 to spend on Windsor Plate day on Oct 3. Highest return wins, prize shared if there is a tie Who forms the next Government Labour on their own 8/1 Nats on their own 12/1 Labour/Green 5/1 Labour/Green/NZ First 6/1 Nats/NZ First 10/1 Nats/ACT 6/1 Nats/ACT/NZ First 10/1 Nats/Greens 20/1 Any other combination 100/1 Unable to form a Govt 100/1 So when you enter as an example Nats on their own $50@ $12, (with $150 left to bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonkatime Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Cheers for the comp. I will go in like a wounded bull with all $200 on any other combination at 100/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocky way Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 $200 on labour on there own @ $8.Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Nice bit of fun Hesi. Any option with Winston First in it should be 10,000/1 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, pete said: Nice bit of fun Hesi. Any option with Winston First in it should be 10,000/1 though. He'll play every trick in the book, to get an electorate seat or over 5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Not a frigging chance in the world this time. Thankfully 😏 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigos1 Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 200 @ 6 Labour/Greens/NZ First Reward for loyalty last time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One Perfect Day Posted July 20, 2020 Share Posted July 20, 2020 Labour/Green 5/1 $200.00 on the Nose Thank's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 20, 2020 Author Share Posted July 20, 2020 Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out Nats and Labour both get 43% ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count Greens do the same Remaining parties make up the last 1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Updated market Labour on their own 7/1 Nats on their own 14/1 Labour/Green 4/1 Labour/Green/NZ First 7/1 Nats/NZ First 15/1 Nats/ACT 8/1 Nats/ACT/NZ First 10/1 Nats/Greens 30/1 Any other combination 80/1 Unable to form a Govt 50/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 Surprisingly very few rules on this scenario, but Parliament has to reconvene 2 months after election day, so lets say 2 months, unless anyone can come up with any other answers No one has answered this earlier post Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out Nats and Labour both get 43% ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count Greens do the same Remaining parties make up the last 1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted July 21, 2020 Share Posted July 21, 2020 10 hours ago, Hesi said: Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out Nats and Labour both get 43% ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count Greens do the same Remaining parties make up the last 1% National/Labour coalition? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 21, 2020 Author Share Posted July 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Say No More said: Are you asking how many seats each party gets under this scenario? I can't say for sure because I haven't closely studied MMP, but common sense would suggest you rule out the 10% of the party vote that was wasted on those parties that meet neither threshold, and allocate the seats in proportion to the other 90%. Labour and National each get 43/90 = 47.8% of the seats, and ACT gets 4/90 = 4.4% of the seats. With 120 seats that means 57.333 seats to each of Labour & National and 5.333 seats to ACT. I think there is some fancy formula (named after a Frenchman) to work out how to allocate that final odd seat across the three 0.333s. There wouldn't be an overhang situation in this case as you've said ACT only won one electorate seat and neither Labour nor National would have won more than 57 or 58 electorate seats. Does that answer the question or have I completely misread this? Yes, that is what I was after, and appears to be correct, based on the 2008 election, where NZ First got 4.07% of the vote, and with no electorate victories, missed out. Nats got 44.93% of the vote and 58 seats. This can be worked out as you have described above, parties getting seats got 92.55% of the total vote 44.93 divided by 92.55 X 120 seats = 58 seats, compared with 44.93% of 120 seats, which is only 53.9 seats. Therefore, based on this, that makes that 1 ACT electorate seat and a reasonable, but still less than 5% showing, a game changer. Especially if the 2 major parties both score low forties, and both Greens and NZ First don't make the 5% threshold or score an electorate seat. A very real possibility, based on latest polls, some of the fuddy duddy stuff from Greens and Peters showing himself to be irrelevant. Indirectly therefore and based on the above, a say 4.5% showing by NZ First, may play into the hands of a Nats/ACT coalition, even if Greens get over the 5% The next poll result with Collins heading the Nats is going to be very interesting, but may contain an element of euphoria Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 23, 2020 Author Share Posted July 23, 2020 Updated market Labour on their own 7/1 Nats on their own 14/1 Labour/Green 3/1 Labour/Green/NZ First 7/1 Nats/NZ First 15/1 Nats/ACT 7/1 Nats/ACT/NZ First 20/1 Nats/Greens 30/1 Any other combination 80/1 Unable to form a Govt 100/1 I've Lengthened Nats/ACT/NZ First, the way Peters and Seymour are slagging each other off Lengthened unable to form a Govt after more research Shortened Labour/Green after Collins did not live up to the hype in the first question time, and the way other leaders have handled the Covid pandemic Shortened Nats/ACT after more research also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 I will have $200 on Labour/ Green thnx Hesi. At the same time last election Winnie was running at 7% and squeaked in. Not a prayer this time in, good bye Houdini. National, to little to late,but likely to surprise. Another 3 yrs of the same coming up. Easy grand Hesi, shall I send you my Bank Account no.? As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Globederby19 said: I will have $200 on Labour/ Green thnx Hesi. At the same time last election Winnie was running at 7% and squeaked in. Not a prayer this time in, good bye Houdini. National, to little to late,but likely to surprise. Another 3 yrs of the same coming up. Easy grand Hesi, shall I send you my Bank Account no.? As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment. As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment. I assume by that scurrilous remark GD you are feeling sorry for the nanny, in which case Max (and probably the entire nation) concurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 No Maxi, quite the contrary. I feel for Jacinda. Shame on you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustPlodded Posted July 23, 2020 Share Posted July 23, 2020 After much consideration, at least 1 minute longer than for John's lay of the Day comp, I think... Labour on their own @ $7 Winnie had his chance to lower immigration and didn't, so he is toast with his supporters. Half the country will realise what the leftist Greens will do to their $1M homes in tax, and the Nats won't get as big vote as Labour, even with Mr TV Seymour's gifted seat. So that will re-distribute the % to both Labour and Nats. Unless Crusher sneaks a hundred cases of Covid over the border the week before the election.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 Breaking News !!!!. There were no new cases of Disgraced Politicians in New Zealand today. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buller Rep Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 On 7/21/2020 at 8:54 PM, curious said: National/Labour coalition? 10,000 to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buller Rep Posted July 24, 2020 Share Posted July 24, 2020 $200 on Labour/Greens/NZ First @ 7/1 Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 26, 2020 Author Share Posted July 26, 2020 Updated market Labour on their own 3/1 Nats on their own 25/1 Labour/Green 3/1 Labour/Green/NZ First 15/1 Nats/NZ First 20/1 Nats/ACT 15/1 Nats/ACT/NZ First 15/1 Nats/Greens 50/1 Any other combination 80/1 Unable to form a Govt 100/1 Latest Newshub poll being claimed as rogue, but the one in May was quickly confirmed by the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll. Have to say I am surprised, Collins has done everything right so far and presented a strong, clear message. I expected a high 30's, low 40's showing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dualis Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 I’ll go Labour/ Greens/NZ First @ $15 $200.Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Labour on their own $200 win bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 a week is a long time in politics 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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