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Election Day Stakes Comp


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Rules are straightforward

You have $200 to spend on the market below, spend it all now, spend part now, or wait till closer to election day.

Comp closes Fri midnight Sept 18.

I will change the market prices around as info comes to light, such as today with Falloon and as polls get released, but you retain the price you bet at originally

Winning prize, is $200 to spend on Windsor Plate day on Oct 3.  

Highest return wins, prize shared if there is a tie

Who forms the next Government

Labour on their own          8/1

Nats on their own              12/1

Labour/Green                        5/1

Labour/Green/NZ First      6/1

Nats/NZ First                       10/1

Nats/ACT                               6/1

Nats/ACT/NZ First             10/1

Nats/Greens                        20/1

Any other combination    100/1

Unable to form a Govt      100/1

So when you enter as an example

Nats on their own $50@ $12, (with $150 left to bet)

 

 

 

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Breaking News !!!!. There were no new cases of Disgraced Politicians in New Zealand today.  

And I agree with Barry, although there is no anecdotal evidence that there was a Greens backlash from Nat supporters it isn't drawing a long bow to support the idea. Personally I cant stand the Greens

No infighting then, please Look at this motley bunch, don't they all look so overjoyed to be part of the team, especially Simon

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4 minutes ago, pete said:

Nice bit of fun Hesi.

Any option with Winston First in it should be 10,000/1 though.

He'll play every trick in the book, to get an electorate seat or over 5%

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Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out

Nats and Labour both get 43%

ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts

NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count

Greens do the same

Remaining parties make up the last 1%

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Updated market

Labour on their own          7/1

Nats on their own              14/1

Labour/Green                        4/1

Labour/Green/NZ First      7/1

Nats/NZ First                       15/1

Nats/ACT                               8/1

Nats/ACT/NZ First             10/1

Nats/Greens                        30/1

Any other combination    80/1

Unable to form a Govt      50/1

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Surprisingly very few rules on this scenario, but Parliament has to reconvene 2 months after election day, so lets say 2 months, unless anyone can come up with any other answers

 

No one has answered this earlier post

Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out

Nats and Labour both get 43%

ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts

NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count

Greens do the same

Remaining parties make up the last 1%

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10 hours ago, Hesi said:

Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out

Nats and Labour both get 43%

ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts

NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count

Greens do the same

Remaining parties make up the last 1%

National/Labour coalition?

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3 hours ago, Hesi said:

Surprisingly very few rules on this scenario, but Parliament has to reconvene 2 months after election day, so lets say 2 months, unless anyone can come up with any other answers

 

No one has answered this earlier post

Can someone who is a lot brighter than me explain what happens, if the following scenario plays out

Nats and Labour both get 43%

ACT gets 4% and also wins an electorate so their 4% counts

NZ First get 4.5% but no electorate, so their % does not count

Greens do the same

Remaining parties make up the last 1%

Are you asking how many seats each party gets under this scenario?

I can't say for sure because I haven't closely studied MMP, but common sense would suggest you rule out the 10% of the party vote that was wasted on those parties that meet neither threshold, and allocate the seats in proportion to the other 90%.

Labour and National each get 43/90 = 47.8% of the seats, and ACT gets 4/90 = 4.4% of the seats.

With 120 seats that means 57.333 seats to each of Labour & National and 5.333 seats to ACT.  I think there is some fancy formula (named after a Frenchman) to work out how to allocate that final odd seat across the three 0.333s.

There wouldn't be an overhang situation in this case as you've said ACT only won one electorate seat and neither Labour nor National would have won more than 57 or 58 electorate seats.

Does that answer the question or have I completely misread this?

Edited by Say No More
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1 hour ago, Say No More said:

Are you asking how many seats each party gets under this scenario?

I can't say for sure because I haven't closely studied MMP, but common sense would suggest you rule out the 10% of the party vote that was wasted on those parties that meet neither threshold, and allocate the seats in proportion to the other 90%.

Labour and National each get 43/90 = 47.8% of the seats, and ACT gets 4/90 = 4.4% of the seats.

With 120 seats that means 57.333 seats to each of Labour & National and 5.333 seats to ACT.  I think there is some fancy formula (named after a Frenchman) to work out how to allocate that final odd seat across the three 0.333s.

There wouldn't be an overhang situation in this case as you've said ACT only won one electorate seat and neither Labour nor National would have won more than 57 or 58 electorate seats.

Does that answer the question or have I completely misread this?

Yes, that is what I was after, and appears to be correct, based on the 2008 election, where NZ First got 4.07% of the vote, and with no electorate victories, missed out.

Nats got 44.93% of the vote and 58 seats.  This can be worked out as you have described above, parties getting seats got 92.55% of the total vote

44.93 divided by 92.55 X 120 seats = 58 seats, compared with 44.93% of 120 seats, which is only 53.9 seats.

Therefore, based on this, that makes that 1 ACT electorate seat and a reasonable, but still less than 5% showing, a game changer.  Especially if the 2 major parties both score low forties, and both Greens and NZ First don't make the 5% threshold or score an electorate seat.  A very real possibility, based on latest polls, some of the fuddy duddy stuff from Greens and Peters showing himself to be irrelevant.

Indirectly therefore and based on the above, a say 4.5% showing by NZ First, may play into the hands of a Nats/ACT coalition, even if Greens get over the 5%

The next poll result with Collins heading the Nats is going to be very interesting, but may contain an element of euphoria

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Updated market

Labour on their own          7/1

Nats on their own              14/1

Labour/Green                        3/1

Labour/Green/NZ First      7/1

Nats/NZ First                       15/1

Nats/ACT                               7/1

Nats/ACT/NZ First             20/1

Nats/Greens                        30/1

Any other combination    80/1

Unable to form a Govt      100/1

I've

Lengthened Nats/ACT/NZ First, the way Peters and Seymour are slagging each other off

Lengthened unable to form a Govt after more research

Shortened Labour/Green after Collins did not live up to the hype in the first question time, and the way other leaders have handled the Covid pandemic

Shortened Nats/ACT after more research also

 

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I will have $200 on Labour/ Green thnx Hesi.

At the same time last election Winnie was running at 7% and squeaked in. Not a prayer this time in, good bye Houdini. National, to little to late,but likely to surprise. Another 3 yrs of the same coming up. Easy grand Hesi, shall I send you my Bank Account no.?

As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

I will have $200 on Labour/ Green thnx Hesi.

At the same time last election Winnie was running at 7% and squeaked in. Not a prayer this time in, good bye Houdini. National, to little to late,but likely to surprise. Another 3 yrs of the same coming up. Easy grand Hesi, shall I send you my Bank Account no.?

As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment.

 

 

 

As an aside I have heard a rumour that Jacindas hubby has had an affair with their nanny. If so I feel for her at the moment.

I assume by that scurrilous remark GD you are feeling sorry for the nanny, in which case Max (and probably the entire nation) concurs

 

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After much consideration, at least 1 minute longer than for John's lay of the Day comp, I think...
Labour on their own @ $7
Winnie had his chance to lower immigration and didn't, so he is toast with his supporters. Half the country will realise what the leftist Greens will do to their $1M homes in tax, and the Nats won't get as big vote as Labour, even with Mr TV Seymour's gifted seat. So that will re-distribute the % to both Labour and Nats.
Unless Crusher sneaks a hundred cases of Covid over the border the week before the election..

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