brown fox Posted July 26, 2020 Share Posted July 26, 2020 Even if Labour got 90% of the votes they would still bring the Greens in to do their dirty work and distance themselves🙈 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porky Posted July 27, 2020 Share Posted July 27, 2020 10 hours ago, dualis said: I’ll go Labour/ Greens/NZ First @ $15 $200.Thanks Sorry Dualis...Yep same mix for me also..$200.@ 15/1. Bring on Windsor Park Day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 On 7/27/2020 at 12:44 PM, Say No More said: No point putting $200 on Labour on their own at the current price (3/1) when someone has already got them at 8/1. Same goes for Labour/Green. Comp was over within a day. Who,s doing the updated market. Ex TAB employee maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 30, 2020 Author Share Posted July 30, 2020 On the latest polls, I am assessing that, 1. Labour will not get enough to govern on their own 2. The Nats will improve further 3. ACT will get the 5% as well as an electorate seat 4. NZ First and Greens will miss out totally Therefore with the Greens hovering around 5%, and Labour not able to crack 50%, they may be unable to form a government The Nats on say high 30's, low 40's, plus ACT at 5%, may also not have the numbers Stalemate, mebbe Updated market Labour on their own 8/1 Nats on their own 25/1 Labour/Green 5/1 Labour/Green/NZ First 15/1 Nats/NZ First 20/1 Nats/ACT 5/1 Nats/ACT/NZ First 12/1 Nats/Greens 50/1 Any other combination 80/1 Unable to form a Govt 100/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted July 30, 2020 Share Posted July 30, 2020 Interesting market from Bet365. Maybe someone should let them know the election is in September 😎 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted July 31, 2020 Author Share Posted July 31, 2020 Been crunching the numbers based on the latest 'real' poll, Labour has no friends scenario All of the below are distinct possibilities, some more than others ACT 5% GREENS 4 NZ FIRST 3 OTHERS 1 LABOUR 46 NATS 41 So eliminate the 8% wasted vote and calculate the no of seats based on each percentage as a percentage of 92, you end up with Labour 60 seats Nats/ACT 60 seats How's that Would point out to all the nay sayers who rubbish polls, that the polls before the last election, got the percentages almost exactly right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 strange that this market has not been updated after the change in Election Day ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 I think Hesi's running scared. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted August 18, 2020 Author Share Posted August 18, 2020 Not at all Even though I am a Jacinda fan, I am trying to look at this objectively, that strange phenomenon that is so hard to find these days. I still think it will be a close run thing, and why I have left Labour/Greens and Nats/ACT as equal faves. I don't believe Labour will get enough to govern alone, Greens may not get to 5%, Nats will increase their %, ACT appear to be making their run at the right time for the 5%, and NZ First are going to struggle to get back in Hardly running scared, and no need yet to change the market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted August 18, 2020 Share Posted August 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Hesi said: Not at all Even though I am a Jacinda fan, I am trying to look at this objectively, that strange phenomenon that is so hard to find these days. I still think it will be a close run thing, and why I have left Labour/Greens and Nats/ACT as equal faves. I don't believe Labour will get enough to govern alone, Greens may not get to 5%, Nats will increase their %, ACT appear to be making their run at the right time for the 5%, and NZ First are going to struggle to get back in Hardly running scared, and no need yet to change the market I was just kidding mate. Those running scared appear to be at the head of government. All trying to deflect the blame. Your heroine likes to bask in glory but doesn't seem so keen on accountability when things start going wrong, which they undoubtedly have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted September 20, 2020 Author Share Posted September 20, 2020 Will update this as soon as the latest polls come out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 12, 2020 Author Share Posted October 12, 2020 Final market Probably haven't thought this out as well as I should, but will go ahead and honour what has been done so far in terms of who wins the $200 Labour on their own 3.5/1 Possible that Labour will poll enough to rule on their own, but would they think of 3 years time and the Greens Nats on their own 100/1 Labour/Green 2/1 Has to be fave now Labour/Green/NZ First 50/1 Winston is history Nats/NZ First 100/1 Nats/ACT 9/1 Still a very real possibility if the Greens don't crack 5%, and 12-14% of the vote is discarded because no electorate or above 5%, meaning 43-44% of the popular vote allows a majority Nats/ACT/NZ First 100/1 Nats/Greens 100/1 Any other combination 33/1 A rogue minor party such as The Maori Party can still win an electorate Unable to form a Govt 50/1 Still possible that the Labour/Green end up tied with Nats/ACT on 60 seats each Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted October 12, 2020 Share Posted October 12, 2020 I will gave a hundy on Labour on their own, absolute moral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just waiting to see what the Queen of NZ decides, to declare a winner. Does she go it alone, or in a coalition with the Greens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Go it alone with Greens supporting on supply and minor roles in the green area, committee chairs etc Doubt Greens will be given significant portfolios but will be pulled in to avoid left attacks against Labour Interesting times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 She doesn't need the Greens support for supply. She can't give them much, as she will alienate too many people. I suspect as Barry said, there were Nats who voted Labour to allow them to govern alone. Labour tolerable to the hardcore, but Greens seem to be a big no no Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I suspect she will lock them in to shut them up so a foma supply agreement, which means nothing will achieve that Testing times for Cindy and not an easy decision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Hardly testing times, Tom, she's completely in charge but doesn't want to offend. If she had any courage at all, she'd back herself, her fabulously clever team and famously compassionate, inclusive, kindness-personified mantra to transform this country over the next 6 years. The stars are aligned for her, helpfully led by free money-for-everything-and-everyone, courtesy of Covid. She could never have promised and/or 'spent' so much dosh without it. By the time the chickens come home to roost, she'll be running the UN and Aotearoa (the country formerly known as New Zealand) will be a shadow of its former self. MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Maximus said: Hardly testing times, Tom, she's completely in charge but doesn't want to offend. If she had any courage at all, she'd back herself, her fabulously clever team and famously compassionate, inclusive, kindness-personified mantra to transform this country over the next 6 years. The stars are aligned for her, helpfully led by free money-for-everything-and-everyone, courtesy of Covid. She could never have promised and/or 'spent' so much dosh without it. By the time the chickens come home to roost, she'll be running the UN and Aotearoa (the country formerly known as New Zealand) will be a shadow of its former self. MM I like you Maxi, but you are an incurable cynic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Testing in that she has to keep the Greens onside for 2026, as I am sure we have them for the next 9 years as the Nats are in huge trouble internally and don't realise it is 2020 and remain in the 70s Cindy was gifted the result as there was no opposition, covid was irrelevant but an excuse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, Hesi said: I like you Maxi, but you are an incurable cynic I'd vote for him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 6 hours ago, pete said: I'd vote for him. shite, thats 3 votes already and I havent even started campaigning ..yehaaaa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 6 hours ago, Turny said: Testing in that she has to keep the Greens onside for 2026, as I am sure we have them for the next 9 years as the Nats are in huge trouble internally and don't realise it is 2020 and remain in the 70s Cindy was gifted the result as there was no opposition, covid was irrelevant but an excuse 9 years? Dont think so mate. Cindy came to leadership from next to nowhere (post Shearer, Cunliffe and Little) with no great hopes until Winnie the Poo gave her the nod - and that worked out well for you, didnt it, Winston? That's why the Greens should stay well away from beddie-byes with the Labs, cos its a poisoned chalice. Wait until the lack of wage subsidy and lack of funds from tourism and education kick in - house prices skyrocketing, rents will follow suit; many of the motels along Te Rapa Road are used for emergency housing, we were told today (Newstalk ZB) - and the Govt is paying twice the market price to secure them, while the scumbag tenants show little or no respect for the free roof over their heads, do their drug deals, hold their hands out for more welfare $$, and the cops try to keep the peace. Happy days, comrades! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Maximus said: shite, thats 3 votes already and I havent even started campaigning ..yehaaaa 4 votes. I'm in yr camp as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 And I agree with Barry, although there is no anecdotal evidence that there was a Greens backlash from Nat supporters it isn't drawing a long bow to support the idea. Personally I cant stand the Greens. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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