Hesi Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 This was a big no no in previous times, now it has been introduced on certain sports events, called Same Game Multi(SGM).......all good Just 2 points 1. I note they don't have any prices 2. If you use the prices in the main market, you get different odds eg Eels vs Souths Alex Johnston to score a try 1.45 George Jennings to score a try 2.00 = 2.90 But if you put the same 2, into a SGM, comes up with 3.40?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Each option is a market all by itself - and has the margin built into it. The combined market (of the two options) has the same margin built into it (around 17%), but the margin is only applied to the combined outcome (i.e applied once). When you multiple the two individual 'market' prices in your example to get $2.90, you would essentially be taking their market percentage twice, hence why the combined 'market' price is a better price. If you work the market out based on % chance for individual and combined, they look to be working to a 85% market quotient (117% market percentage edge). Which results in the price of $3.40 for the combined option based on the two individual options being $1.45 and $2.00 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 To put this into your example. This is how the TAB appear to be working it. Option TAB Price formula Price TAB Chance formula TAB Chance True odds Johnston 85 / chance 1.45 85 / price 58.62% 1.71 Jennings 85 / chance 2.00 85 / price 42.50% 2.35 Both 85 / chance (85 / 24.91) 3.41 chance 1 * chance 2 (58.62% * 42.50%) 24.91% 4.01 They seem to think that the TAB chance of the outcome occurring is as per above. The 85 number is to give them their edge on what they believe the % chance is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 10, 2020 Author Share Posted October 10, 2020 All a bit hard to figure, take this example Souths vs Parramatta Cameron Murray to score a try anytime - 3.75 Souths head to head - 1.27 = 4.76 If you take a SGM, with Cameron Murray to score a try and Souths head to head, they give you 4.00 So this time the SGM is less favourable compared with the example I first presented Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Hesi said: All a bit hard to figure, take this example Souths vs Parramatta Cameron Murray to score a try anytime - 3.75 Souths head to head - 1.27 = 4.76 If you take a SGM, with Cameron Murray to score a try and Souths head to head, they give you 4.00 So this time the SGM is less favourable compared with the example I first presented Does Cameron Murray play for Souths? If so, then if he scores a try, that is known points for Souths (for the bet to be successful), so the odds for Souths to win would change. So in the same way, you can work out what the TAB has for Murray to score a try, and what they are defining as the odds for Souths to win, on the basis that Murray has scored a try (at some point in the game). In this case, the two 'markets' may have a direct relationship. One of the options having may have an impact on the chance of the other. In the first example at the start of the thread, the scoring of a try by one player doesn't really change the odds of the other player to score a try. Edited October 10, 2020 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 10, 2020 Author Share Posted October 10, 2020 Yep Cameron Murray plays for Souths, just scored. In the end, just took him to score a try at 3.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted October 10, 2020 Author Share Posted October 10, 2020 I sort of get it, but don't like it In the above example it would effectively mean, if Cameron Murray scored a try, then Souths head to head odds are 1.06, down from 1.27, regardless of when he scored and what impact it had on the head to head Better as you say, to take options that have no effect on each other, such as the first example. I presume additions like this is part of the ongoing fee the TAB pay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 52 minutes ago, Hesi said: I sort of get it, but don't like it In the above example it would effectively mean, if Cameron Murray scored a try, then Souths head to head odds are 1.06, down from 1.27, regardless of when he scored and what impact it had on the head to head Better as you say, to take options that have no effect on each other, such as the first example. I presume additions like this is part of the ongoing fee the TAB pay Yes, that's what they are saying. If you took a person to score a try and the other team to win, then I would expect the odds would be higher than the two prices shown combined. Because then the other team has to outscore the tryscorer's team knowing the other team already has some points. These options may well be part of the product offering they bought into, and now they are trying them out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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