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Related Outcomes


Hesi
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This was a big no no in previous times, now it has been introduced on certain sports events, called Same Game Multi(SGM).......all good

Just 2 points

1.  I note they don't have any prices

2.  If you use the prices in the main market, you get different odds

eg Eels vs Souths

Alex Johnston to score a try 1.45

George Jennings to score a try 2.00

= 2.90

But if you put the same 2, into a SGM, comes up with 3.40??

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Each option is a market all by itself - and has the margin built into it.

The combined market (of the two options) has the same margin built into it (around 17%), but the margin is only applied to the combined outcome (i.e applied once).

When you multiple the two individual 'market' prices in your example to get $2.90, you would essentially be taking their market percentage twice, hence why the combined 'market' price is a better price.

If you work the market out based on % chance for individual and combined, they look to be working to a 85% market quotient (117% market percentage edge). Which results in the price of $3.40 for the combined option based on the two individual options being $1.45 and $2.00

 

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To put this into your example. This is how the TAB appear to be working it.

Option

TAB Price formula

Price

TAB Chance formula

TAB Chance

True odds

Johnston

85 / chance

1.45

85 / price

58.62%

1.71

Jennings

85 / chance

2.00

85 / price

42.50%

2.35

Both

85 / chance (85 / 24.91)

3.41

chance 1 * chance 2 (58.62% * 42.50%)

24.91%

4.01

They seem to think that the TAB chance of the outcome occurring is as per above. The 85 number is to give them their edge on what they believe the % chance is.

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All a bit hard to figure, take this example

Souths vs Parramatta

Cameron Murray to score a try anytime - 3.75

Souths head to head - 1.27

= 4.76

If you take a SGM, with Cameron Murray to score a try and Souths head to head, they give you 4.00

So this time the SGM is less favourable compared with the example I first presented

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20 minutes ago, Hesi said:

All a bit hard to figure, take this example

Souths vs Parramatta

Cameron Murray to score a try anytime - 3.75

Souths head to head - 1.27

= 4.76

If you take a SGM, with Cameron Murray to score a try and Souths head to head, they give you 4.00

So this time the SGM is less favourable compared with the example I first presented

Does Cameron Murray play for Souths? If so, then if he scores a try, that is known points for Souths (for the bet to be successful), so the odds for Souths to win would change.

So in the same way, you can work out what the TAB has for Murray to score a try, and what they are defining as the odds for Souths to win, on the basis that Murray has scored a try (at some point in the game).

In this case, the two 'markets' may have a direct relationship. One of the options having may have an impact on the chance of the other. In the first example at the start of the thread, the scoring of a try by one player doesn't really change the odds of the other player to score a try.

Edited by mardigras
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I sort of get it, but don't like it

In the above example it would effectively mean, if Cameron Murray scored a try, then Souths head to head odds are 1.06, down from 1.27, regardless of when he scored and what impact it had on the head to head

Better as you say, to take options that have no effect on each other, such as the first example.

I presume additions like this is part of the ongoing fee the TAB pay

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52 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I sort of get it, but don't like it

In the above example it would effectively mean, if Cameron Murray scored a try, then Souths head to head odds are 1.06, down from 1.27, regardless of when he scored and what impact it had on the head to head

Better as you say, to take options that have no effect on each other, such as the first example.

I presume additions like this is part of the ongoing fee the TAB pay

Yes, that's what they are saying. If you took a person to score a try and the other team to win, then I would expect the odds would be higher than the two prices shown combined. Because then the other team has to outscore the tryscorer's team knowing the other team already has some points. 

These options may well be part of the product offering they bought into, and now they are trying them out.

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