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How to Punt?...( to rise above the ups and downs) PLEASE ANYONE ...(system)


Porky
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Its icredibly simple Porky, unless you can be disciplined any adivce given will be wasted.

What you say above is symptomatic of small bet punters who want to win big, get a few extra dollars in the pocket and you either increase bet size or bet volume to try and win even more.

Discipline yourself to accept that a  $10 bet will win you $12 rahter than $120 and you will be 90% there.

Instantly I know you will be thinking, piss off Baz there is NO way I am betting just to win $12,  but effectively right now Porky you are betting $10 and winning $0.

Ponder that thought first before doing anything else.

Edited by barryb
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PS: Porky I am not suggesting you back $1.20 shots either, what I am suggesting is you are thinking far to short term, you are living Saturday to Saturday on the punt.

Stretch your thinking out to a month to start with and then to 6 months.

Write down every bet you make for a month to also give you a reality check on how you really go.

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I'd just reiterate some of barry's points.

Discipline and understanding that you don't need to win every day.

There's nothing wrong with being ahead during a day and then losing it all, if the losing has been as a result of maintaining discipline. If you change the way you bet or change the races you bet on or increase the stake because you're winning on the day, then I'd suggest that is going to result in days such as you describe.

If you're losing on a day, trying to chase losses is an equally bad approach in my view. Let the wins happen and if the results are going to pan out overall, then the end will result will be better. Assessing things day to day is just a very short timeframe to consider your outcomes.

And as barry suggests, record every bet and overtime, assess what happens.

If you are the type of punter that wants to bet on most races, my suggestion would be to set aside a separate amount for that which is around having fun, and set aside an amount that is for returning you profit. The difficulty there for most punters is the lines get blurred and many punters will revert their 'profit' funds to their 'fun' funds - because maintaining that discipline around your punting will be difficult.

I don't believe there is a staking system that can work long term that is sustainable. Many of us on here have referred to the negatives around staking systems that increase bet size as you lose. Massive risk for generally very little reward - and a tragedy when the unsustainable losing streak arrives.

 

Edited by mardigras
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Agree with above. It sounds like you can pick winners but are too impulsive with your betting. Start with a bank that will be for beyond the day or week. Bet a % of the bank. This will control your impulse betting. Have a spreadsheet to keep records of starting bank, bets and profit/loss. For example, start with a bank of $100 and bet 2% ($2.00). This will keep you going for quite a while if you are losing. Once you have lost around 18 bets at $2 per bet, you will be betting $1.00 (rounded). However, if you are losing, it will pay to see why. How do you select a bet and why? You won't get 'rich' betting 2% but it will stem the quick loss of the $100 bank. Once you start winning, it is possible, then the returns are higher for the same % risk. 

I have followed barryb, curious and mardigras for a while now with their thoughts and advice. I have found that Return On Investment (ROI) is what matters not strike rate. Limit your betting to a few races per day. Look for value. Be prepared to wait. Don't follow the crowd and trust your own judgement. Even when you get it wrong, it is something to learn from and the 2% bank will give you lots of 'plays'. There is a difference between wanting to make a profit and 'social' betting.

If you accept less than value on a runner, you may get lots of winners but the winnings barely, if at all, cover the losses. Don't chase losses, you will lose. Keep emotions out of betting (unless social betting and you don't mind losing, it's just fun). 

Keep on asking questions on this site, feedback is important as well. 

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4 hours ago, barryb said:
1 hour ago, mardigras said:

 

What you say above is symptomatic of small bet punters who want to win big, get a few extra dollars in the pocket and you either increase bet size or bet volume to try and win even more.

 

4 hours ago, barryb said:

you are living Saturday to Saturday on the punt.

Stretch your thinking out to a month to start with and then to 6 months.

Write down every bet you make for a month to also give you a reality check on how you really go.

Advice taken ...Thanks guys...will do 2021 resolution !

I guess I was after some magical wonderland betting system  or staking plan that ensured your average

(good strike rate, value winner) OR 2 x All up place punters collect, would keep you ticking over nicely for a nice yearly profit LOL.

I hear you loud and clear,... 99% of punters are not disciplined enough...even if it did work.

 

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It has all been said above Porky. Discipline is your word of the year.

For us amateurs, if I'm  off  to the races for the day(few and far between these  days)I will back my one or two anchors before I go and then on course for the social flutter,I keep the float in one pocket and profit in the other.😁

All the best 

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On 1/4/2021 at 11:32 AM, LookingForValue said:

 It sounds like you can pick winners but are too impulsive with your betting. Start with a bank that will be for beyond the day or week. Bet a % of the bank. This will control your impulse betting. Have a spreadsheet to keep records of starting bank, bets and profit/loss. For example, start with a bank of $100 and bet 2% ($2.00).You won't get 'rich' betting 2% but it will stem the quick loss of the $100 bank. Once you start winning, it is possible, then the returns are higher for the same % risk. 

I have followed barryb, curious and mardigras for a while now with their thoughts and advice. I have found that Return On Investment (ROI) is what matters not strike rate. Limit your betting to a few races per day. Look for value.  Even when you get it wrong, it is something to learn from and the 2% bank will give you lots of 'plays'. 

If you accept less than value on a runner, you may get lots of winners but the winnings barely, if at all, cover the losses.  

Keep on asking questions on this site, feedback is important as well. 

Cheers mate, will chuck a hundy in the A/C for Saturday and study for 4 or 5 best perceived value bets to kick off with...$2 bets and record em !

Baz was right  ($12 is better than 0) BUT(let me explain) I am expecting to pick (gut feeling) 2 out of 10...(maybe 1 or 3) @ $6FF Av. roughly

which is $24 for $20 a fortnight...$4 profit x 26 fortnights = $ 104 a year.

not down-crying the idea mate. hope I can up the % to 3 or 4 out of 10 to make it more feasible.   

I will have a small play account (mums, so temptation eradicated to dip into profit account)  for exotics, all ups etc. to keep me interested.

  

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Porky mate, the market expectation of $6 shots is less than 20% success (2 winners in 10) now from what I have seen you post you are not likely to be exceeding that figure.

I have told you the following a million times in the past already, take the advice this time and thank me in 1 yrs time.

Above you are assuming that your bets will forever in a day be $20.

Firstly each Saturday deposit your $20 into your TAB account $20 x 56 days = $1120 yr end.

Bet only $20 each Saturday, regardless of your winnings (dont withdraw your winnings & resist the temptation over and above your $20), slowly but surely your bank balance will climb.

Once you have $500 in your account then increase your bet per Sat to $25, when you have $1000 in there then your bets change to $50 per Sat & so on going forward.

Resist the desire to bet higher until you can build your bank to $2000 then each bet can becoming a maximum of 2% $40 per bet & you will start winning a hell of a lot more.

Punting is like any bloody thing else Porky, nothing good comes without sacrifice & hard yards.

When you first start out as a plumbing apprentice you dont earn mega bucks, you work hard, you go without, you take the risks later when $ & experience allows.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, barryb said:

 

Bet only $20 each Saturday, regardless of your winnings (dont withdraw your winnings & resist the temptation over and above your $20), slowly but surely your bank balance will climb.

 

Once you have $500 in your account then increase your bet per Sat to $25, when you have $1000 in there then your bets change to $50 per Sat & so on going forward.

Resist the desire to bet higher until you can build your bank to $2000 then each bet can becoming a maximum of 2% $40 per bet & you will start winning a hell of a lot more.

Punting is like any bloody thing else Porky, nothing good comes without sacrifice & hard yards.

When you first start out as a plumbing apprentice you dont earn mega bucks, you work hard, you go without, you take the risks later when $ & experience allows.

 

 

Your a hard case Baz, and thanks for that advice (again) ...I have short term memory loss (honest)...( I have book-marked all this advice LOL)

Sorry I,m also thick !... are you saying don't worry about the 2% idea before you reach $500?...as the market expectation of $6 shots is less than 20% success (2 winners in 10) and from what you have seen me post, I,m not likely to be exceeding that figure.???

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Porky said:

Your a hard case Baz, and thanks for that advice (again) ...I have short term memory loss (honest)...( I have book-marked all this advice LOL)

Sorry I,m also thick !... are you saying don't worry about the 2% idea before you reach $500?...as the market expectation of $6 shots is less than 20% success (2 winners in 10) and from what you have seen me post, I,m not likely to be exceeding that figure.???

 

 

 

Correct on both accounts Porky.

If you were exceeding the 2 winners in 10 bets at $6 you wouldn't be asking the question you have.

Keep a track of your bets for the next month and then report back, my guess is you are doing more like 1 - 1.5 winners in 10 bets.

My s/r is  11.1% with an average divi of $10.83 over the last 5 yrs

 

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6 hours ago, Porky said:

Cheers mate, will chuck a hundy in the A/C for Saturday and study for 4 or 5 best perceived value bets to kick off with...$2 bets and record em !

Baz was right  ($12 is better than 0) BUT(let me explain) I am expecting to pick (gut feeling) 2 out of 10...(maybe 1 or 3) @ $6FF Av. roughly

which is $24 for $20 a fortnight...$4 profit x 26 fortnights = $ 104 a year.

not down-crying the idea mate. hope I can up the % to 3 or 4 out of 10 to make it more feasible.   

I will have a small play account (mums, so temptation eradicated to dip into profit account)  for exotics, all ups etc. to keep me interested.

  

My advice is for the social betting side of things. You will do enough to have fun. Barryb's advice is the future if you wish to make a good profit long term. Good luck

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Thank you guys for the advice !

I have been punting socially for neigh on 45 years...you have convinced me (with guidelines) How to attack the New Year.

I have had a chat to Mumsy and $20 going in her (profit A/C), with bets taken early. (will look more for double figure value)

whilst my ingrained/hereditary social punting A/C will also be fed $20.  keeps me interested (trebles,all ups etc) whilst at mates, club, races.

Thanks again, will write down all bets as a learning curve ! ...and report back in a month.  

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1 hour ago, Porky said:

Thank you guys for the advice !

I have been punting socially for neigh on 45 years...you have convinced me (with guidelines) How to attack the New Year.

I have had a chat to Mumsy and $20 going in her (profit A/C), with bets taken early. (will look more for double figure value)

whilst my ingrained/hereditary social punting A/C will also be fed $20.  keeps me interested (trebles,all ups etc) whilst at mates, club, races.

Thanks again, will write down all bets as a learning curve ! ...and report back in a month.  

I dont  think that this advice has been accredited to only one person asking for advice Porky. I am sure that there are others on here  taking it all in. I am a punter of 50 odd yrs ,albeit Harness , and have learnt a lot from these learned gentlemen.

 

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Hey Porky, you've seen the post by LFV (Food For Thought - Chat - The Race Place) . The first article is referring to punters betting against a set of prices/(probabilities based). 

When you're identifying your bets, rather than just assessing based on the price you are betting on (since that is not necessarily a realistic assessment of chance), but trialing a method of trying to identify the chance of the runners in a few races. Then as you identify a potential bet and see it paying $6, you can use the probability information by identifying those that have a chance assessed greater than 20% (to get 2+ winners out of 10 etc) - so that you are betting to an advantage. 

Of course doing so doesn't mean success as you need to reach the point where your own probability assessments have a correlation with actual outcome percentages. So that you are able to trust your own assessments.

It will take more effort and record keeping. Along with refinement over time if you were to do that. But as per that article referenced, if you haven't been able to determine the probability of the runners in a race, it makes it difficult to determine whether the $6 on offer is to your advantage or not.

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Thanks for that Mardigras,

The food for thought articles were good reading...I have written down in my little black punting book (Red warwick 4b1 actually)

to be read before selecting ea. Fri  night/ Sat. morn  YOU WILL guidelines.

I am very good (from 45 years punting/ equine experience) at determining value and from gut feeling just what horses will drop in F/F markets. 

13 hours ago, barryb said:

If you were exceeding the 2 winners in 10 bets at $6 you wouldn't be asking the question you have.

Keep a track of your bets for the next month and then report back, my guess is you are doing more like 1 - 1.5 winners in 10 bets.

My s/r is  11.1% with an average divi of $10.83 over the last 5 yrs

 

  Last question PROMISE...(serious...not trying to be a smart arse)

It appears to me Baz, You are alluding to try and  label $10 shots...

I will give it a go  ...thanks

BUT, will on paper...for my own interest ( take 10 x $2 multi,s to equal the required $20)

and (see if I cant get my $5-6 shot average up to 2.5- 3/10)

seeing this is light hearted Baz, I can see you saying "now dont be farkin cheeky boy,

get ya head down that toilet and tell me what's going on !  

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21 minutes ago, Porky said:

and (see if I cant get my $5-6 shot average up to 2.5- 3/10)

I think barry is getting at the reference to selecting 20% winners at $6 - if that was being achieved, you already have the solution to your question.

A $6 price say through NZ TAB is a horse they have assessed at around a 14% chance, whereas you are needing them to be a 20% chance (to achieve the 2/10 goal). 

If you are able to already determine a horse as being a 20% chance paying $6 - then you have the answers you are looking for and the rest is easy. All you need to do then is maintain a discipline around those runners, and play around with a little bit of money on other entertainment type options.

Edited by mardigras
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  • 1 year later...

Hi guys and gals,

I,m back to annoy the living daylights out of ya !

Having read Baz's trixie posts , I felt compelled to re-introduce this post that I had saved.

Baz, I still only punt for pleasure, BUT, get the odd nice exotic pay-out . (still like me trebles).

Anyway, good to be back.   

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17 minutes ago, Porky said:

Hi guys and gals,

I,m back to annoy the living daylights out of ya !

Having read Baz's trixie posts , I felt compelled to re-introduce this post that I had saved.

Baz, I still only punt for pleasure, BUT, get the odd nice exotic pay-out . (still like me trebles).

Anyway, good to be back.   

After you sought advice/info - did you decide to use any of it? How's your punting going? Keeping any records yet?

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Hi Mardi and Baz,

Na Dudes Ive been avoiding this bloody time-waster, 

Have taken up a bit of writing for fun, yeah I don,t lose much (if any at all)...Honest !

Crickey, I spend enough time studying, withput putting all bets on a spredsheet.

HONESTY...I AM USELESS,  CANT STICK TO A SYSTEM !  TAKES TOO LONG TO REALISE PROFITS !

ENJOY EXOTICS AND TREBLES AND THE TAB LOVES ME... (UP AND DOWN LIKE A YO-YO) !

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Cheers Baz, hows ya 2% of your pool bets going ?

Pool must be getting down a bit. LOL

I see you have changed to trixies (chasing the big bucks)

Mate, its only a social past-time...ya only live once...cant take it with you !

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7 hours ago, Porky said:

Cheers Baz, hows ya 2% of your pool bets going ?

Pool must be getting down a bit. LOL

I see you have changed to trixies (chasing the big bucks)

Mate, its only a social past-time...ya only live once...cant take it with you !

Porky, you not off to Aus? 
Both countries would benefit.

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