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"It seems that profitable punters instinctively think about the future in this multidimensional way, knowing that their role is not to be right or wrong about future events, but simply to assess the likelihood of future outcomes at a slightly better rate than others. Unprofitable punters, meanwhile, see their role differently as more akin to a fortune teller.

That’s why, another respondent argued, losing bettors are so reticent to create tissue prices before events. To do so – to commit a percentage chance to a range of possible outcomes – creates cognitive dissonance. If you think binarily, then the idea that there are multiple possible futures is anathema to you: it’s almost as if your brain won’t let you.

And perhaps in that respondent, we have a way of shifting ourselves towards greater profitability. If those who make a living from punting are so unanimous in identifying the shortcomings of the unprofitable, it makes sense that we heed their advice.

So, before you place your next bet – and before you have even looked at the odds available in the market – take some time to price up the event first. To help, try asking the question, if this event took place 100 times, how many times would each possible outcome occur?"

This is it in a nutshell in so far as long term betting to profit. If you don't or can't accept that every runner has a probability of winning, and wanting to have a method to identify that probability - so that you can then bet to your advantage, then long term, a punter is highly likely going to struggle to win.

This ties in perfectly with the idea of not betting with the aim of backing the next winner of a race, but long term backing winners that give you price advantage, however often that might occur.

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In respect to the bit about "pricing up the event" yourself, most punters wouldnt have enough information at hand or prior knowledge to do that, in effect leaving them to gut instincts, or as I do sometimes having a "portfolio" of horses that bob up on occasion at decent odds . The trick is to pick that time.. I struggle even after 50 yrs of punting, but, and this is the category most punters fall into , I dont see this pastime as the bee all and end all of my daily routine. As you have mentioned before it requires discipline, dedicated discipline to make it work in a profitable way. Most of us are not dedicated enough. Lol

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4 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

In respect to the bit about "pricing up the event" yourself, most punters wouldnt have enough information at hand or prior knowledge to do that, in effect leaving them to gut instincts, or as I do sometimes having a "portfolio" of horses that bob up on occasion at decent odds . The trick is to pick that time.. I struggle even after 50 yrs of punting, but, and this is the category most punters fall into , I dont see this pastime as the bee all and end all of my daily routine. As you have mentioned before it requires discipline, dedicated discipline to make it work in a profitable way. Most of us are not dedicated enough. Lol

For sure Globe, pricing up a race is not easy. But you can start with simplified methods based on at least ranking each runner with a score from 1 - 20 for example. Then using that information to define probabilities for each runner. And as you say, a lot of that assessment will be gut instinct etc. And you need to do it for a long period to determine whether the assessments have any long term merit etc. So there is no quick system.

So the art of doing that comes at a cost - which is why punting is largely a difficult exercise if the aim is profit. A method such that you use is going to be a lot simpler, still provide ample opportunity for fun and for success. And if the skill relating to how the portfolio is built is good, can be successful as well. The probability aspect might just be something that would make it more successful by helping with picking the time.

Most punters simply don't have the discipline and ability to refine an approach over time, to reach the end point required to bet in that fashion. So betting for the excitement of some wins and the social aspect of racing, can be sufficient to keep many going.

So a lot of what I write isn't really for the typical punter.

But things like recording bets and maintaining some discipline about how you go about betting day to day, could still lead to a punter better understanding their own betting to the point of actually understanding whether they are winning or losing (and how much), and also identifying where you've made decisions that appear to be rash or emotionally based that are outside your normal betting pattern - so as to identify why/when you did that, and what the consequences were.

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9 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

In respect to the bit about "pricing up the event" yourself, most punters wouldnt have enough information at hand or prior knowledge to do that, in effect leaving them to gut instincts, or as I do sometimes having a "portfolio" of horses that bob up on occasion at decent odds . 

I'm the same Globe, with a "portfolio" of horses I follow closely; mainly in the pacing game, but a few trotters too. You are probably the same as me, where after a while you get to really know each horse; it's best traits, what it prefers, what it doesn't and which type of race (stand v mobile) and distance it is best at. The draw and driver can often play a vital role too.

Race day statistics are there for all to see, and generally a good guide, but when one follows a portfolio of horses, and really follows them closely, including ontrack, watching their prelim, you get to know them pretty well. 

Usually I will have no more than a dozen horses in the portfolio. They chop and change, every 3-4 months or so. This way it is managable to take notes and put all of your effort in to these ones and it generally ties in with an individual horse's prep too. 

Then, when one of the horses does start, it is just an assessment of all of the factors at play, combined with the previous knowledge obtained regarding the horse. Just because I'm following the portfolio of horses, doesn't mean to say I'm not looking at the opposition on any given day too (to a much lesser extent admittedly). Horses that aren't yet in the portfolio, may one day end up there.

"Pricing up the event" - when the acceptances are out, I then think about price. At what price would I be prepared to take. I'm mainly an eachway punter, and will do a check of the betting percentage of the market (final field odds) if I'm looking at the NZ TAB. Then assess the "value" (chance) of my portfolio horse. Ideally I like to be on track for the race, to give it a good once over pre-race. And then use that knowledge and experience from months gone by, to determine if it's worth having a bet or not, at the current odds on offer. 

At the end of the day, I like most, do it all for the enjoyment and it's been a life long hobby. I don't do it to try and make money as a professional gambler, and I only ever "invest" on what I can afford to lose on any given day. Also, I don't necessary bet on every horse within the portfolio on every start. Sometimes it is just a "taking notes" day.

So that's how I roll and so far the results have been more than pleasing. Rewarding financially and socially, I love it. 

Good luck everyone. 

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12 hours ago, Rusty said:

Also, I don't necessary bet on every horse within the portfolio on every start.

That's the defining aspect of it. Sometimes it takes 4 or five starts for a horse to show something where you know it is time to hop on.

A classic example of this was the 1985 NZ Cup winner Borana. I had followed this horse from his first starts and noticed early on that his form came in short bursts preceded by a string of average performances and then out of the blue a placing, which foretold some better runs for 4 or 5 starts. He was a very capable pacer  and knew he could foot it with the best. So ignoring the odds I hopped on and won some good dosh. Hasn't happened that often but there was one at Alex Park a couple of years ago on BOAY( wash my mouth out with soap and water) where I put up a pick called Cracker Red. Way over due and duly obliged at $63, purely gut instinct.

Good fun .

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This is sort of going outside the square... BUT, I enjoy, chucking the odd roughy into exotic bets... due to track leader / on pace bias

or liking for heavy track conditions or a horses liking for a track, (for whatever reason).

One that Springs to mind years back in the wet  Tono Bungay ...formline 101010  LOL

On pace bias tracks are easy to Identify... not always / dependent on track conditions/Barrier draws etc  (wont offend anyone

But yeah, juggling up all these scenarios will be the challenge for me , in pricing up an event.

Thanks for the advice Mardigras

On 1/5/2021 at 9:47 PM, mardigras said:

 pricing up a race is not easy. But you can start with simplified methods based on at least ranking each runner with a score from 1 - 20 for example. Then using that information to define probabilities for each runner.  a lot of that assessment will be gut instinct , And you need to do it for a long period to determine whether the assessments have any long term merit etc. So there is no quick system.

  

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Years ago when highweights were around in abundance, there was a particular horse that won every second start. He would win then race next up over a different distance or class then back in to Hwt for another win. regular as clockwork. Can't remember his name. 

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The funny part about all this is that with numerous opportunity's over the years I have never had the balls to put a mortgage amount on a horse and then retire from the winnings.

Another example of this was when Holy Toledo won the Guinea's at Wgtn( I think). I was studying at Polytech as an adult apprentice on one of our block courses ,and one of the Tutors, Barney, was a horse owner. With a common interest we got along well and he informed me just before the meeting at Trentham that Holy Toledo would win, full stop, put yr life savings on it .I looked at him in disbelief as this was a group race no less. No, he said ,just back it, it will win.  Having 2 kids by now and on apprentices wages doesn't afford one a whole heap of discretionary income to waste on punting. I borrowed some money off my sister,$100 a lot back in the seventy's, without telling her the reason, and put it on. It won as everyone knows with Linda Jones up and paid $12. One of life's missed opportunity's. Although the New K9 TV was nice. lol

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1 hour ago, Globederby19 said:

The funny part about all this is that with numerous opportunity's over the years I have never had the balls to put a mortgage amount on a horse and then retire from the winnings.

Another example of this was when Holy Toledo won the Guinea's at Wgtn( I think). I was studying at Polytech as an adult apprentice on one of our block courses ,and one of the Tutors, Barney, was a horse owner. With a common interest we got along well and he informed me just before the meeting at Trentham that Holy Toledo would win, full stop, put yr life savings on it .I looked at him in disbelief as this was a group race no less. No, he said ,just back it, it will win.  Having 2 kids by now and on apprentices wages doesn't afford one a whole heap of discretionary income to waste on punting. I borrowed some money off my sister,$100 a lot back in the seventy's, without telling her the reason, and put it on. It won as everyone knows with Linda Jones up and paid $12. One of life's missed opportunity's. Although the New K9 TV was nice. lol

The number of times I listened to people telling me a horse was a certainty and it lost. I think $100 was a better risk than the house. No need to get greedy. The number of times I missed a winning bet on a $50+ horse because I didn't trust my own judgement. There is always another winner around the corner at value. 

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