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This is of concern


Hesi
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A significant player in the industry, in contravention of the Rules of Racing, being allowed a voice at the JCA table, in order to try and influence a decision.  Relates to the Illusion Of Paris interference on Jan 1

In addition, Mr D Ellis (Te Akau Principal), sought permission to be present at the hearing(s). There were no objections raised by Stewards. Mr Ellis was advised by the Committee of and he accepted the provisions of Rule 916(1), which prohibits Counsel or Lay Advocate representation at a raceday hearing. The Committee did however afford Mr Ellis the opportunity sit-in on the hearing as an interested party and to provide some general commentary in relation to penalty. In this regard we were all clear and accepting on what role Mr Ellis could reasonably and realistically play in this hearing without overstepping the intent or spirit of Rule 916(1).

In reaching its penalty decision the Committee was mindful that Mr Bosson will not be able to ride at the pending Karaka Millions meeting.

We gave very careful consideration to Mr Ellis’ impassioned plea from his perspective about the importance of Mr Bosson being available to ride at the Karaka Millions meeting. Mr Ellis points were well made and we accept that Mr Bossons unavailability for this meeting would be a significant loss. 

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I'm not sure why they even bothered to let him speak.

As it stands, he is out of the Karaka Millions day - but he is appealing the suspension period anyway. I think he wasn't harshly treated. Any reduction would show a lack of integrity and further highlight the view of preferential treatment.

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By pure coincidence Max was about to start a thread on this very subject - D Ellis 'sitting in' then making an 'impassioned plea' on behalf of his #1 jock for the big races. Twill be interesting to see how this unfolds.

In Max's opinion, a fair and just penalty has been imposed. David Ellis would be wise to keep out of JCA hearings in future. (I seem to recall he poked his nose in at least once last year.) His plea for Opie clearly ignored the interests of jockeys' safety, and the punters who had backed the horses and riders adversely affected by OP's clear poor judgment on the day - in two consecutive races - trying to barge his way into a better possie on a well-backed Te Akau horse in a rich black-type race.

If Andrew Calder had fallen off his mount and suffered serious injury, what then?

Opie is definitely NZ's best jockey - but he can't be allowed to literally 'ride roughshod' over the other jocks.

JCA report here:

http://www.jca.org.nz/race-days/auckland-rc-thoroughbred-racing-1-1-2021/hearing.2021-00-02.16356720

MM

 

 

Edited by Maximus
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23 minutes ago, VvD said:

You're joking right?

Just look at the guy's strike rate and watch him ride - he is head and shoulders above any other jockey in NZ.  If he could make the weight I'd put him on my horse every-time ahead of anyone else.  As an owner I'm more interested in getting the win and the stake rather than the tote price.

I'm not joking - what does his strike rate have to do with anything? 

I'm interested in the win - but why get it and sacrifice price. He is just another rider. I don't even look at riders when I bet. They make such a tiny difference imo.

But the quality of rides sure will help is strike rate. He is massively over-rated imo.

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Most Kiwi trainers and many owners would disagree with you, mate ... several that I know say he is worth 'a good couple of lengths' on a horse. But even the best have good and bad days, and when their actions risk injury to other horses and riders, they have to pay the price - suspension during the season of riches.

MM

Edited by Maximus
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1 minute ago, Maximus said:

Most Kiwi trainers and many owners would disagree with you, mate ... several that I know say he is worth 'a good couple of lengths' on a horse. But even the best have good and bad days, and when their actions risk injury to other horses and riders, they have to pay the price - suspension during the season of riches.

MM

Except he doesn't perform at the level punter and owners back him to - so that should tell you that punters and owners are over-rating him.

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29 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Most Kiwi trainers and many owners would disagree with you, mate ... several that I know say he is worth 'a good couple of lengths' on a horse. But even the best have good and bad days, and when their actions risk injury to other horses and riders, they have to pay the price - suspension during the season of riches.

MM

I'll ask you the same question Max that I asked Vvd. Would you please put up the data you have supporting the claim that his rides outperform their chance otherwise by 2 lengths+ And I don't count hearsay as data.

Edited by curious
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6 minutes ago, curious said:

I'll ask you the same question Max that I asked Vvd. Would you please put up the data you have supporting the claim that his rides outperform their chance otherwise by 2 lengths+ And I don't count hearsay as data.

Wow, 2 lengths+ - when you get to asserting a 2 length impact, man that would be phenomenal. I'm surprised he doesn't win every ride. I'm going to assess some horses where he has ridden them as well as other jockeys to see what the variance in performance is between him and the others. 2 lengths, that's massive.

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32 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Wow, 2 lengths+ - when you get to asserting a 2 length impact, man that would be phenomenal. I'm surprised he doesn't win every ride. I'm going to assess some horses where he has ridden them as well as other jockeys to see what the variance in performance is between him and the others. 2 lengths, that's massive.

That could be interesting but I can tell you it won't look pretty if you use SP as your assessment of chance though.

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8 minutes ago, VvD said:

You seem to be confusing his impact on the horses chances of winning with the impact on the price.

You questioned why David Ellis would twist arms to get Opie on one of his (KM) starters.  David Ellis doesn't care about the horse's starting price and whether that represents value.  He just cares about giving his horse the best chance of winning.   I'm not saying Opie riding ability outweighs the impact he has on a horse's price - I'm just saying he is the best jockey in the country.

The quality of rides vs strike rate point is a circular thing - there is a reason why he gets the quality of rides - because he is the best jockey.

So you are agreeing he has a greater impact on price than his ability? Yes or No?

If yes, then as per what Maximum stated, people believe he is worth more than he is showing himself to be. That view I would say extends to David Ellis.

The rest of your post is subjective about the opinion of David Ellis, and your opinion of Opie Bosson. I disagree with both opinions. As for the circular thing, that is also your opinion. My opinion he gets better rides because of people sharing the very same opinion that you have, that he is the best, having has the opportunity to ride for some of the leading stables. As a result of that, when you continually get better rides, you are going to get more winners. How many horses has he won on this season paying $10+? Surely he could have got at least one home with such commanding skill compared to the rest.

And if you look at the performance of horses such as Avantage and Melody Belle when he isn't riding them, I haven't noticed anything particularly variable in their performance when he rides or doesn't.

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8 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Would be quite difficult to assess how a horse would have performed in any given race, had a different jockey ridden it. 

Sure you can look at how the horse has gone in previous races with different jockeys aboard but that doesn't reflect the specifics of the race in question - quality of opposition, draw, distance, track, .......

It may well be difficult to do. But that is what is being asserted. That he is worth x to a runner in a race. It's therefore not based on what he achieves with the horse compared to others - since you say it can't be measured.

I personally believe it can be measured. That is the basis of all my punting. Measuring the performance of a horse in a race (irrespective of who it raced against).

I'd say the view that he is the best held by many is based around his strike rate. 

Edited by mardigras
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30 minutes ago, Say No More said:

I look forward to your analysis that objectively proves there is someone better.

So when someone else claims he is the best. I have to then prove there is someone better? Interesting approach. It's not something I would say can be proven.

But I have checked the methods I use to analyse individual horse performance, and he is not as good as many when it comes to comparing my assessed performance of a horse he has ridden compared to my assessed performance of the same horse when ridden by others.

Of course that is my subjective analysis of the horse's performance (even though that subjective analysis does not consider the jockey). Funny how even though I don't consider the jockey, somehow my subjective performance of horses such as Melody Belle, Avantage, Prise De Fer show his rides on those horses to be at performance levels below other riders.

Of course you'd be entitled to suggest my analysis of horse performance is screwed. And you'd be entitled to that opinion as well. Just as you are with Bosson. I'll stick with my opinion of him all the same.

Edited by mardigras
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11 minutes ago, Say No More said:

You said you didn't know why David Ellis would be so keen to have Opie riding for him and you said you wouldn't put Opie on your horse if you had one.  This suggests that you think there is someone better.

No it doesn't. It suggests I think he is no better than other jockeys. But that he affects price. So if I put him on, I get the same result, and if I want to back my horse at the same time, I get a lesser result.

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2 hours ago, VvD said:

You seem to be confusing his impact on the horses chances of winning with the impact on the price.

You questioned why David Ellis would twist arms to get Opie on one of his (KM) starters.  David Ellis doesn't care about the horse's starting price and whether that represents value.  He just cares about giving his horse the best chance of winning.   I'm not saying Opie riding ability outweighs the impact he has on a horse's price - I'm just saying he is the best jockey in the country.

The quality of rides vs strike rate point is a circular thing - there is a reason why he gets the quality of rides - because he is thev best jockey.

Max is in full agreement with VvD on this. Taint about a horse's SP; it's about the value he adds to the horse being give its best chance to win in a particular race. Horsemanship and knowledge (of horses/tracks/tactics/other riders) is power. OP adds the most value.

MM

Edited by Maximus
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Just now, Maximus said:

Max is in full agreement with VvD on this. Taint about a horse's SP; it's about the value he adds to the horse's chance of being give its best chance to win in a particular race. Horsemanship and knowledge (of horses/tracks/tactics/other riders) is power. OP adds the most value.

MM

Which as I have said, I don't think he does any better than the majority of jockeys - and I'm happy for you to have faith in your own opinion on that, as I am happy to have faith in mine. 

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4 hours ago, mardigras said:

I'm not joking - what does his strike rate have to do with anything? 

I'm interested in the win - but why get it and sacrifice price. He is just another rider. I don't even look at riders when I bet. They make such a tiny difference imo.

But the quality of rides sure will help is strike rate. He is massively over-rated imo.

Agreed, he is the most cronically over rated rider in NZ.

Tina whom is riding my Girl tomorrow I would have on 10 times over him.

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Ha, just looked at this in more detail & yes my first thoughts were bang on.

When taking into account market expectation, there is very little difference between Opie & Tina, his S/R is significantly higher but she performs slightly better on market expectation.

Now the crucial thing as Mardi is alluding too, is that Tina is far less likely to have much of an impact on the SP & therefore she is by far the better rider to place on your horse.

The ability level is almost identical & Tina gives the owners much greater value.

Done deal.

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I have learnt over many yrs in this game, what seems obvious and correct is often so far from reality when looked at from a different angle.

After looking at this in much more detail tonight, I can assure you that the figures dont lie, Tina is as good if not better for your horse than Bosson, what appears to be reality is often a lie in this game.

Think outside the square guys & you are well rewarded, do what the sheeple do & you will be left behind.

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