This is of concern

[curious]

9 minutes ago, VvD said:

No you're missing the point mate.  I've tried to make it a few times on here but none of you are listening.  You're thinking like punters, not owners.

This thread was about David Ellis wanting Opie to ride one of his horses on KM day.   Owners don't care about market expectation - they just want the jockey that will give the horse the best chance of winning.

I maintain that when its comes to balance, positioning, judging pace, taking gaps, lifting a horse in a tight finish, etc ...... Opie Bosson is a better jockey than Tina Cominaghi (or anyone else in NZ).

(and there's no need to resort to the "fucking" bit)

Where's your data for that? It doesn't stack up for mine. It's hearsay. Saying that, I'd be happy to have him on my horse for the reasons you state if I didn't want to back it.

[mardigras]

14 minutes ago, VvD said:

Interesting analysis - would love to see the data.  Tina Comignaghi has had just under 1,400 rides in her NZ career.  Hard to fathom (statistically) that you have 552 instances where one of those horses has been ridden by a different jockey, at the same track and distance and track rating.

One ride can have multiple comparisons. If she rides one horse that has multiple starts on the same track etc, that one ride is compared against x other performances. So there aren't 552 separate rides that are being compared. Such as She's Payback or He's Gold

Edited January 8, 2021 by mardigras

[mardigras]

14 minutes ago, VvD said:

With Bosson, would be interesting to compare weight carried - given his weight limitations, I'm assuming that on average his rides would have been carrying more weight.

 

They could have. I will check. Of course, my view is that weight is close to meaningless. And in order to bring his average up to 0.33 seconds per runner faster  (for a 2 length advantage), rather than 0.2 seconds slower, he's going to to require the weight impact to be around 3 - 3.5 lengths per start. Perhaps before I go and find out the weight variances, you can tell me how many kilos on average you believe is required to make up 3.0+ lengths?

[curious]

8 hours ago, VvD said:

Where does the 2 length advantage come into it?

It was Max's opinion above which I think is what we are debating.

"Most Kiwi trainers and many owners would disagree with you, mate ... several that I know say he is worth 'a good couple of lengths' on a horse."

[mardigras]

8 hours ago, VvD said:

With Bosson, would be interesting to compare weight carried - given his weight limitations, I'm assuming that on average his rides would have been carrying more weight.

 

My data has Bosson carrying an average of 1.182kg more than the alternate rider. For Comignaghi's results, I have her carrying 0.035kg less on average compared to the alternate rider. Pretty meaningless in the context of things. I'd average 1.18kg equating to about 0.02 of a second.

I'm not about to put up thousands of lines of data anyway. And that is also missing the point. My point being I've formed an opinion which I've used specific information about performance to establish. Given I don't even consider jockeys in my betting, I couldn't really care who is the best or who is thought to be the best, I still wouldn't adjust anything when assessing the horses they are riding.

I'm yet to see what you've used to come up with your opinion, outside of your own eyes. The very point that he is often riding better horses where they are disputing the finish more often and winning more often, and therefore in the eyes of the viewers more often, is likely to make people think he is better at the things you've suggested. 

I've got nothing against Bosson. He's an OK rider. I just wouldn't put him on my horse for the reasons I've stated.

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, VvD said:

Interested to know who the 6 are and how you determine this "positive outcome" that you refer to from an owner's perspective?  

Over his NZ career he has ridden a winner in around every 6 rides. This season that figure is better than 1 in 4.  Other top jockeys in NZ are closer to 7.5 to 8 across their careers.  CWJ's career strike-rate is 1 in 7.7, despite riding for most of his career in the south island.

I know it's an simple metric but it tends to support what I have observed from watching thousands of races and race replays, and I would love to see your analysis that supports your alternative ("positive outcome") view.

Also look forward to seeing Tina riding in the big races coming up at Trentham, Ellerslie and Te Rapa - she is certainly riding well on the West Coast at the moment.

You seem to be confusing opportunity with ability.

Strike rate is a simple measure, and in my simplistic view, has zero value. 

If I rode in 100 races and rode 99 winners, would that mean I was any good?

[mardigras]

Just now, VvD said:

Yes, that would be outstanding!  Particularly if they were in races against jockeys of the quality that Opie comes up against.

Many would say that his ability (balance, judgement, temperament, ...) affords him the opportunity.

Strike rate doesn't contain information about who the rider rode against. But it seems you are happy to consider it in light of that, yet not so happy to consider it in light of the horses they rode. Which I would have thought a far greater consideration.

Many would say what you state. Many think Trump won the last US election as well.

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, VvD said:

Yes, that would be outstanding!  Particularly if they were in races against jockeys of the quality that Opie comes up against.

So outstanding. And particularly outstanding if against jockeys of the quality Opie has ridden against.

I guess then if 99 of my wins were walkovers, and the one loss was in a two horse race at odds of 10-1 on, and losing, having never beaten another horse in a race, at least I would have made it to the outstanding ranks.  Sadly, not particularly outstanding, just outstanding.

Edited January 8, 2021 by mardigras

[mardigras]

6 minutes ago, VvD said:

I guess there was an implicit assumption that you were referring to 100 relatively regular races (not walkovers).   My bad for not thinking of your contrived example - you got me - well done!

 

Yes extreme. But so is the difference between Bosson's rides and 'regular' riders. They are extremely different.

[curious]

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

You seem to be confusing opportunity with ability.

Strike rate is a simple measure, and in my simplistic view, has zero value. 

If I rode in 100 races and rode 99 winners, would that mean I was any good?

If all your rides were on Winx's or Black Caviar's then not necessarily. You'd just have to be good enough to stay on.

[London Trader]

Next we will have Barry telling us Aaron Bidlake is a better trainer than Jamie Richards and Curious telling us Trevor Chambers does the job better than anyone else in the CD.

 

[mardigras]

7 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Next we will have Barry telling us Aaron Bidlake is a better trainer than Jamie Richards and Curious telling us Trevor Chambers does the job better than anyone else in the CD.

 

I'm certainly very keen on the majority of the public believing Bosson is the best. 

In the same way I want the majority of the public to believe weight, barrier, formlines, gear changes are all very important in horse racing. If they majority didn't believe those things, I'd be highly unlikely to make money. So let's not change people's thinking too much thanks. So carry on as you were.

[London Trader]

Do you think trainers are important? Or pretty much irrelevant too?

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Do you think trainers are important? Or pretty much irrelevant too?

Pretty much irrelevant. I certainly don't even consider who the trainer is. Mostly nice people though I expect.

I'm not sure why I need to consider a trainer when I consider horse performance. If a trainer was superior, that would show in the performance of the horse - no?

[Stevie Nicks Off]

Ellis isn’t interested in punting his horses, he’s more interested in winning group races turning his colts into stallions, so not surprising he wants one of NZs top hoops onboard 

Bosson was leading group 1 rider in Sydney in the Autumn with 4 group 1 victories

In Australia they call Glen Boss group 1 Bossy but the Autumn just gone they were calling Opie group 1 Bosson as he rode Te Akau Shark Probabeel Quick Thinker and $10+ Tofane to group one glory

Case closed!

[London Trader]

But as an owner of an unraced horse how do you decide what trainer you send it to? 

[mardigras]

2 minutes ago, Stevie Nicks Off said:

Case closed!

If you say so. 

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, London Trader said:

But as an owner of an unraced horse how do you decide what trainer you send it to? 

Draw a name out of a hat of those trainers that would be likely to race my horse where I am likely to want to see it race. Or choose the trainer in an area where I could visit it. And exclude any trainer that had fees that were markedly higher than the 'norm' for that area.

If the horse was half decent, it wouldn't stay in NZ. I'd then send it to a trainer that operated in the part of the new country that gave it decent access to the types of events I thought the horse could be competitive in. And repeat the process above with those trainers.

I certainly wouldn't get hung up on who was training it. Just as I don't get hung up on who is riding.

[London Trader]

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Draw a name out of a hat of those trainers that would be likely to race my horse where I am likely to want to see it race. Or choose the trainer in an area where I could visit it. And exclude any trainer that had fees that were markedly higher than the 'norm' for that area.

If the horse was half decent, it wouldn't stay in NZ. I'd then send it to a trainer that operated in the part of the new country that gave it decent access to the types of events I thought the horse could be competitive in. And repeat the process above with those trainers.

I certainly wouldn't get hung up on who was training it. Just as I don't get hung up on who is 

Have you raced any horses in NZ?

[mardigras]

Just now, London Trader said:

Have you raced any horses in NZ?

Yep, two. Only shares. I'm not sure what the point of the question is. I wouldn't have a different view if I had a horse in Oz, HK, England or Dubai.

You seem to think trainers are vastly different. Please inform us as to how you determine the ability of one trainer over another. Strike rate? That would be funny.

[London Trader]

Barry, do you think if your trainer came to you and said we have two rider options in a Group 1 race, Opie Bosson or Chris Dell you wouldn't give two tosses who he chose?

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, Say No More said:

You say the quality of the horses ridden is a far greater consideration yet the analysis you posted was purely based on how they compared to other jockeys (riding the same horse).   You seem a bit confused.

No confusion here. Comparing a single horse ridden by multiple jockeys. Performance. Unrelated to opposition. Unrelated to where the horse finished. Who managed to ride the horse the fastest. If Bosson could have ridden all those horses faster, maybe he should have - especially in all those races where he didn't win, being the vast majority of them.

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Which post in particular are you talking about?  Not the one where he compared Tina to other SI jockeys? He seems a bit confused with that.

Earlier you said something about six or so jockeys who were superior to Opie on some measure you have, but you didn't reply to Virgil's request to share. 

I added Tina because her name came up. My post was comparing Bosson and his rides under the same conditions on the same horse - compared to other jockeys.

Where he managed to ride on average 0.2 seconds slower per ride, having carried on average an extra 1.18kg than the alternative rider. Please explain how that makes him so good.

[mardigras]

3 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Barry, do you think if your trainer came to you and said we have two rider options in a Group 1 race, Opie Bosson or Chris Dell you wouldn't give two tosses who he chose?

 I thought you said he was the best, not just better than Chris Dell.

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Yes confusion.

You stated quite clearly that you thought the quality of the horse was a far greater consideration, yet your analysis has nothing to do with the quality of the horse.  Which is it?

Are you having difficulty discerning the difference between a discussion on strike rates and a discussion on performance? It seems so.

I've never said quality of the horse is important when assessing performance.

I have said it would have to be a consideration for strike rate. And if you couldn't work it out, that was in relation to relative quality - just to spell out every sentence to help you comprehend.. And as I've also said, strike rate is of so little value, and of no value at all if you don't consider what would be expected.

Edited January 9, 2021 by mardigras