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4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

So outstanding. And particularly outstanding if against jockeys of the quality Opie has ridden against.

I guess then if 99 of my wins were walkovers, and the one loss was in a two horse race at odds of 10-1 on, and losing, having never beaten another horse in a race, at least I would have made it to the outstanding ranks.  Sadly, not particularly outstanding, just outstanding.

I guess there was an implicit assumption that you were referring to 100 relatively regular races (not walkovers).   My bad for not thinking of your contrived example - you got me - well done!

 

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Agreed, he is the most cronically over rated rider in NZ. Tina whom is riding my Girl tomorrow I would have on 10 times over him.

In answer to the question about Jockeys from earlier here are the ones that are very postive expectation wise when they take a mount. Now just to stop all the dickhead posts before they happen, I am n

Ha, just looked at this in more detail & yes my first thoughts were bang on. When taking into account market expectation, there is very little difference between Opie & Tina, his S/R is s

6 minutes ago, VvD said:

I guess there was an implicit assumption that you were referring to 100 relatively regular races (not walkovers).   My bad for not thinking of your contrived example - you got me - well done!

 

Yes extreme. But so is the difference between Bosson's rides and 'regular' riders. They are extremely different.

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1 hour ago, mardigras said:

You seem to be confusing opportunity with ability.

Strike rate is a simple measure, and in my simplistic view, has zero value. 

If I rode in 100 races and rode 99 winners, would that mean I was any good?

If all your rides were on Winx's or Black Caviar's then not necessarily. You'd just have to be good enough to stay on.

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7 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Next we will have Barry telling us Aaron Bidlake is a better trainer than Jamie Richards and Curious telling us Trevor Chambers does the job better than anyone else in the CD.

 

I'm certainly very keen on the majority of the public believing Bosson is the best. 

In the same way I want the majority of the public to believe weight, barrier, formlines, gear changes are all very important in horse racing. If they majority didn't believe those things, I'd be highly unlikely to make money. So let's not change people's thinking too much thanks. So carry on as you were.

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9 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Do you think trainers are important? Or pretty much irrelevant too?

Pretty much irrelevant. I certainly don't even consider who the trainer is. Mostly nice people though I expect.

I'm not sure why I need to consider a trainer when I consider horse performance. If a trainer was superior, that would show in the performance of the horse - no?

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Ellis isn’t interested in punting his horses, he’s more interested in winning group races turning his colts into stallions, so not surprising he wants one of NZs top hoops onboard 

Bosson was leading group 1 rider in Sydney in the Autumn with 4 group 1 victories

In Australia they call Glen Boss group 1 Bossy but the Autumn just gone they were calling Opie group 1 Bosson as he rode Te Akau Shark Probabeel Quick Thinker and $10+ Tofane to group one glory

Case closed!

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1 minute ago, London Trader said:

But as an owner of an unraced horse how do you decide what trainer you send it to? 

Draw a name out of a hat of those trainers that would be likely to race my horse where I am likely to want to see it race. Or choose the trainer in an area where I could visit it. And exclude any trainer that had fees that were markedly higher than the 'norm' for that area.

If the horse was half decent, it wouldn't stay in NZ. I'd then send it to a trainer that operated in the part of the new country that gave it decent access to the types of events I thought the horse could be competitive in. And repeat the process above with those trainers.

I certainly wouldn't get hung up on who was training it. Just as I don't get hung up on who is riding.

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28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Draw a name out of a hat of those trainers that would be likely to race my horse where I am likely to want to see it race. Or choose the trainer in an area where I could visit it. And exclude any trainer that had fees that were markedly higher than the 'norm' for that area.

If the horse was half decent, it wouldn't stay in NZ. I'd then send it to a trainer that operated in the part of the new country that gave it decent access to the types of events I thought the horse could be competitive in. And repeat the process above with those trainers.

I certainly wouldn't get hung up on who was training it. Just as I don't get hung up on who is 

Have you raced any horses in NZ?

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Just now, London Trader said:

Have you raced any horses in NZ?

Yep, two. Only shares. I'm not sure what the point of the question is. I wouldn't have a different view if I had a horse in Oz, HK, England or Dubai.

You seem to think trainers are vastly different. Please inform us as to how you determine the ability of one trainer over another. Strike rate? That would be funny.

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12 hours ago, mardigras said:

Strike rate doesn't contain information about who the rider rode against. But it seems you are happy to consider it in light of that, yet not so happy to consider it in light of the horses they rode. Which I would have thought a far greater consideration.

You say the quality of the horses ridden is a far greater consideration yet the analysis you posted was purely based on how they compared to other jockeys (riding the same horse).   You seem a bit confused.

Of course Tina is going to look good in that analysis because you are comparing her against the relatively poor bunch of jockeys that ride around in the South Island.

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Just now, Say No More said:

haven't seen those stats yet

Mardi has put them up here a few times already, what I have is almost identical. 

Please can you put up the same, supporting that he is head and shoulders above the rest, not just an opinion.

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Just now, barryb said:

Mardi has put them up here a few times already, what I have is almost identical. 

Which post in particular are you talking about?  Not the one where he compared Tina to other SI jockeys? He seems a bit confused with that.

Earlier you said something about six or so jockeys who were superior to Opie on some measure you have, but you didn't reply to Virgil's request to share. 

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3 minutes ago, Say No More said:

You say the quality of the horses ridden is a far greater consideration yet the analysis you posted was purely based on how they compared to other jockeys (riding the same horse).   You seem a bit confused.

No confusion here. Comparing a single horse ridden by multiple jockeys. Performance. Unrelated to opposition. Unrelated to where the horse finished. Who managed to ride the horse the fastest. If Bosson could have ridden all those horses faster, maybe he should have - especially in all those races where he didn't win, being the vast majority of them.

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4 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Which post in particular are you talking about?  Not the one where he compared Tina to other SI jockeys? He seems a bit confused with that.

Earlier you said something about six or so jockeys who were superior to Opie on some measure you have, but you didn't reply to Virgil's request to share. 

I added Tina because her name came up. My post was comparing Bosson and his rides under the same conditions on the same horse - compared to other jockeys.

Where he managed to ride on average 0.2 seconds slower per ride, having carried on average an extra 1.18kg than the alternative rider. Please explain how that makes him so good.

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3 minutes ago, London Trader said:

Barry, do you think if your trainer came to you and said we have two rider options in a Group 1 race, Opie Bosson or Chris Dell you wouldn't give two tosses who he chose?

 I thought you said he was the best, not just better than Chris Dell.

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4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

No confusion here. Comparing a single horse ridden by multiple jockeys. Performance. Unrelated to opposition. Unrelated to where the horse finished. Who managed to ride the horse the fastest. If Bosson could have ridden all those horses faster, maybe he should have - especially in all those races where he didn't win, being the vast majority of them.

Yes confusion.

You stated quite clearly that you thought the quality of the horse was a far greater consideration, yet your analysis has nothing to do with the quality of the horse.  Which is it?

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4 minutes ago, Say No More said:

Yes confusion.

You stated quite clearly that you thought the quality of the horse was a far greater consideration, yet your analysis has nothing to do with the quality of the horse.  Which is it?

Are you having difficulty discerning the difference between a discussion on strike rates and a discussion on performance? It seems so.

I've never said quality of the horse is important when assessing performance.

I have said it would have to be a consideration for strike rate. And if you couldn't work it out, that was in relation to relative quality - just to spell out every sentence to help you comprehend.. And as I've also said, strike rate is of so little value, and of no value at all if you don't consider what would be expected.

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