Jump to content
The Race Place

Things Melbourne Cup


mardigras

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, VC! said:

If he gets yours I doubt he will run

My weights are what I think Greg Carpenter will allocate the horses 

Avilius will probably run in the Cup with anything around 55kgs I would imagine

I would rather back the horse in the Caulfield Cup

He's one of current favs for Cox Plate. If he gets less than 56, I'm gonna have to take a break from punting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greg Carpenter said the weight of history played on his mind when deciding whether or not to hand Saturday’s Caulfield Cup (2400m) winner Best Solution a penalty in the Melbourne Cup.

RV’s chief handicapper eventually decided against increasing his weight, leaving the Godolphin pin-up horse with 57.5kg in next month’s $7.5 million staying feature. 

Carpenter said Best Solution, who has never raced beyond 2400m and won the Caulfield Cup in a pedestrian 2.33.72, would need to become only the second horse in the last four decades to win the Melbourne Cup with more than 57kg. 

“There’s no doubt the record of horse high up in the weights for the Melbourne Cup has not been as positive as those high up in the Caulfield Cup,” Carpenter said. 

“In fact, over the last 40 years 63 horses have run in the Melbourne Cup with 57 kilograms or more and only one, Makybe Diva in 2005 with 58kg, has been able to win.

“That was very much part of the thought process around whether or not to penalise Best Solution.

“I think it’s a huge challenge for Best Solution, it will be his first start beyond 2400m and he’ll meet a new round of challengers so he’ll have to run every bit up to his performance at Caulfield on Saturday and then some.”

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's face it VC!. Greg Carpenter will write whatever he likes. And he has to give something 58kg at least. Best Solution was top weight without a rehandicap. I think he should have received more. And Avilius recent record is as good as Best Solution's lead up record. And he gave Best Solution 57.5 last year.

I think what he does with the Caulfield Cup winner is entirely different to how he weights the field. Is he going to give all horses under 57 since only one in 63 has won. Is he saying all those horses he otherwise weights at 57+ are therefore highly unlikely to be able to win. Then he isn't much of a handicapper if that is the case since he is saying he is basically ruling horses out and not equalising chance as per what a handicapper is tasked with doing.

Of 1 in 63 winning with 57kg+, that's not particularly interesting. 2 out of 63 is basically in line with 'expected'. A whole difference of 1. What makes him think the Melbourne Cup is any different to the Caulfield Cup where he claims higher weighted horses have a better record. They're just races. Perhaps he should have thought about how many of those 63 have been Europeans. It might have helped him realise that he overweights them. The vast majority of them have been Europeans. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Let's face it VC!. Greg Carpenter will write whatever he likes. And he has to give something 58kg at least. Best Solution was top weight without a rehandicap. I think he should have received more. And Avilius recent record is as good as Best Solution's lead up record. And he gave Best Solution 57.5 last year.

 

This is the way Carpenter thinks, see you can win a group 1 and get no penalty

If he is of the opinion that only 1 horse and she was a bit of a freak has won with more than 57kgs in the last 40 years how could he justify his way of thinking and possibly give Avilius 58kgs when the horse is unplaced at Flemington in his last 2 starts there and considering he has only been beaten 3 times in his Australian career 2 have been at Flemington 22nd in last years Cup carrying 54.5 how will Carpenter justify to himself that he can give Avilius a 3.5 kg increase on last years performance when he couldn’t justify giving Best Solution a penalty after winning the Group 1 Caulfield Cup

Yes I agree something needs to be weighted 58 kgs I think Almond Eye is the one

You’re probably right Avilius May well get 57/58kgs as I don’t understand the ratings/weight like you do, but this is Greg Carpenter we’re talking about

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, VC! said:

This is the way Carpenter thinks, see you can win a group 1 and get no penalty

If he is of the opinion that only 1 horse and she was a bit of a freak has won with more than 57kgs in the last 40 years how could he justify his way of thinking and possibly give Avilius 58kgs when the horse is unplaced at Flemington in his last 2 starts there and considering he has only been beaten 3 times in his Australian career 2 have been at Flemington 22nd in last years Cup carrying 54.5 how will Carpenter justify to himself that he can give Avilius a 3.5 kg increase on last years performance when he couldn’t justify giving Best Solution a penalty after winning the Group 1 Caulfield Cup

Yes I agree something needs to be weighted 58 kgs I think Almond Eye is the one

You’re probably right Avilius May well get 57/58kgs as I don’t understand the ratings/weight like you do, but this is Greg Carpenter we’re talking about

That's winning a G1 after weights are out. Try doing that before weights are released. Many horses win races after weights are out and don't get a penalty. Some will get a 4 or 5 rating point adjustment but get 0.5kg extra weight in the cup. It's one of the reasons why it becomes very difficult to make the field if you get weighted 8+ points below benchmark. You either have to win a ballot exempt race or be treated very well by Carpenter giving you a decent re-handicap. Even after Avilius won the Bart Cummings, he got a 1.5kg re-handicap - even though his actual rating went up a lot more than 3 points.

I think it's easy to justify 58 for Avilius. His performances since the cup are far superior to his performances prior to last years cup.

Australia do ratings based handicapping. He still does it for the cup with very minor tweaks. Imagine if Avilius got 54kg and a horse with a rating 6 points less got 55kg. Do you think the connections of that horse would just say that is fine because clearly Carpenter thinks Avilius can't win with his rated weight. Many of the horses Carpenter gives high weight to have never even run at Flemington. Avilius has won there. If Carpenter weighted the field on his subjective opinion as to equalising chance, maybe Avilius gets 54. But he doesn't do that as that mode of handicapping has long since disappeared in Oz. 

I don't think Almond Eye will be in the noms but if she were, my assessment might be light. 

If you factor in females getting 2kg, Makybe Diva essentially won twice with a rated weight of 57kg+. Her second win she was rated at 57.5 (before female allowance). So her weight is the equivalent in Oz handicapping terms to a male carrying 57.5. That would make it 2 out of 63 horses 'rated' at 57.5kg or above. The fact she carried 58kg to win - which is the equivalent of a male carrying 60kg says something. as of al the horses rated to 60kg+ before gender allowances, about 1 from 2 or 3 have won in the last 40 years.

Greg Carpenter gets my ire every year. He over-weights low grade European horses - possibly because he is afraid of giving them a low weight whereby they won't have a chance of making the field and therefore not coming. If I had a horse, I certainly would rather get 55kg than 51.5kg when weights came out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Large year's early pre race Melbourne Cup favourite, Withhold raced overnight after a nine month break from his run in the Geelong Cup (where he bled). He won (a race over more than 3300m fresh up).

Previously there had been a suggestion the horse wouldn't come back to Australia. Trainer complained about the quarantine facilities and the track. Seems that suggestion is waning after this mornings run. And some punters have decided to back him. I laid him off for a little at 32s in the cup this morning.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/21/2019 at 7:42 AM, mardigras said:

Large year's early pre race Melbourne Cup favourite, Withhold raced overnight after a nine month break from his run in the Geelong Cup (where he bled). He won (a race over more than 3300m fresh up).

Previously there had been a suggestion the horse wouldn't come back to Australia. Trainer complained about the quarantine facilities and the track. Seems that suggestion is waning after this mornings run. And some punters have decided to back him. I laid him off for a little at 32s in the cup this morning.

I really liked the win of Withhold 61.5kgs

and was strong through the line.                 the MC is a perfect race for him, he was unlucky last year to be on the borderline of entry, that he had to run in the Geelong Cup, I backed him in the Geelong Cup unfortunately he bled and that was it.

50-1 available with Sportsbet and 40-1 about Avilius with Sportsbet

So  laying Withhold at 32s is good work

BF usually a good guide to whether these imports are coming or not and with no money for the likes of Stradivarius and Almond Eye I guess we can put a line through their chances

The Goodwood Cup coming up as is the Ebor

I backed Wells Farhh Go at 50-1 to win the Goodwood and Raheen House at 25-1 to win the Ebor

So will be keeping a close watch on those two

Plenty of Melbourne Cup hopefuls in these two up and coming races to keep an eye on including the Fav Cross Counter

I haven’t seen Raheen House in the MC markets

But horses like De Ex Bee....Falcon 8....Southern France....Wells Farhh Go.....Withhold.....Cross Counter.....Kings Advice....Red Verdon.....Prince of Aran and the likes will no doubt be lining up in these two races in the next few weeks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, VC! said:

 

The Goodwood Cup coming up as is the Ebor

The Ebor has been a fair reference in the past

Muntahaa top 10 last year probably not suited by the rain affected track

Nakeeta ran 5th

Heartbreak City, All the Good, Purple Moon Hugs Dancer, Give the Slip, a few bridesmaids there🤣

You’ll get a better idea once first nomination’s are released 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, VC! said:

But horses like De Ex Bee....Falcon 8....Southern France....Wells Farhh Go.....Withhold.....Cross Counter.....Kings Advice....Red Verdon.....Prince of Aran and the likes will no doubt be lining up in these two races in the next few weeks. 

King's Advice may need something. As it stands will not have passed qualifying requirements.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, VC! said:

BF usually a good guide to whether these imports are coming or not and with no money for the likes of Stradivarius and Almond Eye I guess we can put a line through their chances

Last year, Gosden said this about Stradivarius. Which is interesting considering the horse has won G1 races carrying more weight than this 'little' horse' would get in the cup.

It's a race that Gosden would love to win but he is worried about the weight that his 'little horse' may get.

"That is in the melting pot but it's the old 'one thing at a time'," Gosden said.

"He might get a lot of weight and he is not a very big horse.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

Last year, Gosden said this about Stradivarius. Which is interesting considering the horse has won G1 races carrying more weight than this 'little' horse' would get in the cup.

It's a race that Gosden would love to win but he is worried about the weight that his 'little horse' may get.

"That is in the melting pot but it's the old 'one thing at a time'," Gosden said.

"He might get a lot of weight and he is not a very big horse.

 

Will he be in line for another million pound bonus if he wins the Goodwood Lonsdale Cups?

Gosden probably thinks he may jeopardise Stradivarius chances of doing the 4 peat again next year if he goes down under, probably thinking along the lines Waller was thinking with Winx a trip to Royal Ascot with Winx would have more than likely ruled her out of creating history by forgoing a 4th Cox Plate 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Stevie Nicks Off said:

 

You’ll get a better idea once first nomination’s are released 

Last year there were 183 first nominations with 50 of those Internationals they may even nudge that this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/22/2019 at 1:33 PM, VC! said:

I really liked the win of Withhold 61.5kgs

and was strong through the line.                 the MC is a perfect race for him, he was unlucky last year to be on the borderline of entry, that he had to run in the Geelong Cup, I backed him in the Geelong Cup unfortunately he bled and that was it.

If they do decide to come, he will likely make the field this year without needing another run. He has been rated up an extra 7 points in the UK for his latest win - and I think Carpenter will give him the extra based on that. So probably around 53.5 - 54kg.

All the talk about allowances. One thing I don't get is why they even use allowances. They should weight the race as a handicap event. Applying a 'generic' allowance to a horse has no place in real handicapping. It's absurd. Being a female doesn't make the horse 2kg inferior to the same assessed male. Why don't they simply weight the runners to equalise chance?

If they then want to define the order of entry - they could use benchmark weights if they wanted to (or not). Either Carpenter is able to weight the NH 3yos effectively or he isn't. If he weights the horse and then gives it an allowance based on age/gender, then he is a fool. 

Edited by mardigras
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, mardigras said:

.

All the talk about allowances. One thing I don't get is why they even use allowances. They should weight the race as a handicap event. Applying a 'generic' allowance to a horse has no place in real handicapping. It's absurd. Being a female doesn't make the horse 2kg inferior to the same assessed male. Why don't they simply weight the runners to equalise chance?

If they then want to define the order of entry - they could use benchmark weights if they wanted to (or not). Either Carpenter is able to weight the NH 3yos effectively or he isn't. If he weights the horse and then gives it an allowance based on age/gender, then he is a fool. 

I agree it’s really bizarre I’ve always wanted WFA changed to WFAS (weight for age and sex) I often wondered who came up with the idea female horse’s should be given weight allowances 

I wonder how the owners of Happy Clapper felt having to give Winx a 2kg weight advantage every time they met

Surely Makybe Diva is a classic example that male and female horses should be treated equally carrying 58kgs to victory in 2005

It’s also odd that they  would offer S Hemisphere 4yr olds a 10lb allowance if they were to run in the Ascot Gold Cup

Carpenter has been found out the last couple of years let’s see what he does this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The weights for the Ebor noms are out. And with a weight spread of 34lbs (15.5kg), that is something you will never see in NZ/Aus. That's like the Melbourne Cup getting 62kg down to 46.5kg at nom stage. Which it should. A decent field of noms. Should be a cracker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This year, the usual issue with things like the Melbourne Cup and fixed odds providers is obvious. They have no balls. Instead of taking truckloads of money on the event antepost, they put up prices that rely on stupidity in the main, in order to take any bets. For example, the top 24 in the NZ TAB market is already at a market % greater than 100%. And they want people to bet into that. That top 24 has no price above 25-1. No wonder there are no funds coming from the TAB. They're completely useless and afraid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big event tonight at Goodwood. 

The Goodwood Cup. Stradivarius going for repeat wins and Cross Counter in there also. Should be a great race.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2019-07-30/goodwood/racecard/531622/qatar-goodwood-cup-stakes-group-1-british-champions-series

If anything is going to upset Stradivarius, I like Dee Ex Bee. VC might fancy Wells Farhh Go!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah looking forward to the race I have today’s Randwick Trials to assess so will stay up until 12-35am to watch the race

I really liked Cross Counters run in the AGC he was really good late of a slowly run race even though it’s 800 Mtrs less I think he can beat Stradivarius do I back CC at 4s or lay Stradivarius at the $1-71 Wells Farhh Go would be a nice result 

Your selection Dee Ex Bee was so brave last start I really thought Stradivarius was going to run away with the AGC  should be a cracker

Edited by VC!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...