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Things Melbourne Cup


mardigras

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Some punters are getting excited leading into the Ebor with the news that Raheen House has been bought into by Australian Bloodstock to head to Melbourne for a Caulfield Cup & Melbourne Cup prep. VC might have mentioned this one previously from memory. 

Already qualified and ready to run in the Ebor at 10s.

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As expected, Enable won the Yorkshire Oaks overnight. The runner-up, Magical is no slouch. 

Tonight we have the Lonsdale Cup at York. A small field of 5. A few here in the markets. Stradivarius, Magic Circle, Falcon Eight and Dee Ex Bee. The first two are unlikely for Melbourne. The last two possible.

Magic Circle, the trainer has stated he isn't coming back. But if he won this or run very well, would he change his mind?

And the Ebor Saturday night. Looks a fantastic lineup. Those in the current betfair market entered are Withhold, Ben Vrackie, Wells Farhh Go, Prince Of Arran, Mustajeer, Kings Advice and Raheen House.

According to some, single digit barriers are no good but it's not something I would agree with. And if it were the case, many of the favs are now not going to win, so you could make an absolute killing.

Others to look out for as possible cups horses are Weekender, Barsanti and Baghdad. 

And of course there is Max Dynamite lining up, a horse with Cup placings to his name. Would Mullins bring him back again as a SH 10yo?

My pick, who may be a Cups candidate as well, is Mekong! (Although can't apparently win as drawn 3).

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16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Won from a double-figure stall
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that

 

I was lucky enough to come across this

There were more but I remember a TV program called Eights Enough So that’s where we draw the line

Of  course 9/4lb is 59kgs so that wiped out the majority of the field, anyway to cut a long story short 1 horse did tick the required boxes and that horse was

Dramatic Queen currently around 28-1 BF was matched at 44-1 and a fiver at 48

However the big firmer Raheen House now I wonder who backed that???

Alarm and IQ box set for 12-40am

 

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DXB and Falcon8  drifted remarkably on BF with no takers a sure sign they weren’t coming

Andrew Bensley was speaking withJamie Richards this morning and Te Akau are going to try and qualify a horse called (Te Akau) Calliburn (not sure of the spelling) through the Bart Cummings 

Finche trialled last Friday and it was a cracker he will be ready I usually aim to back 5 horses and currently Finche is at the top of my ratings

Finche has had another 12 months in Australia will have a luxury weight top trainer is likely to be a big improver and knowing he ran 4th last year won’t have to improve much

Taking a line through other imported stayers who improved after 12 months+ down Under

Green Moon

Fiorente

Almandin

31s for a genuine chance represents great value

Count Octave also trialled last Friday and he still has a lot of improvement left, the good thing for CV time is still on his side, but i’m going to need to see more over the coming weeks

The Ebor answered a few questions also added a few ???? On quite a few others at this early stage I only have 1 horse locked in and that is Finche I believe Sportsbet is the last of the Bookmakers that have Finche at 30s

 

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I did a prior estimate of what weight I thought horses would get. Here is my re-estimate based on subsequent performances and any additions to the betfair market. I won't do it for noms as there are too many. But noms close tomorrow so it will be interesting to see who is in. I've added my view on whether I think they are going to nominate as well. (The change is from original estimate to now, if I estimated the horse previously).

Horse

Orig Weight

New Weight

Change

Nom Expected?

Almond Eye

58

58

 

Very unlikely

Avilius

58

58

 

Likely

Stradivarius

57.5

58

0.5

Unlikely

Dee Ex Bee

56

57.5

1.5

No

Kew Gardens

57.5

57.5

 

Possible

Cross Counter

57

57

 

Likely

Defoe

57

57

 

Unlikely

Ghaiyyath

57

57

 

No

Communique

 

56.5

 

Possible

Torcedor

56.5

56.5

 

Likely

Marmelo

55.5

56

0.5

Likely

Flag Of Honour

55.5

55.5

 

Possible

Ispolini

55

55

 

Likely

Amade

54.5

54.5

 

No

Holdthasigreen

54.5

54.5

 

Unlikely

Latrobe

54

54.5

0.5

Likely

Magic Circle

54.5

54.5

 

No

Mirage Dancer

 

54.5

 

Likely

Morando

54.5

54.5

 

Unlikely

Rekindling

54.5

54.5

 

No

Withhold

54

54.5

1

Possible

A Prince Of Arran

54

54

 

Likely

Called To The Bar

54

54

 

Unlikely

Capri

54

54

 

Possible

Rostropovich

54

54

 

Likely

Southern France

53.5

54

0.5

Likely

Gold Mount

53.5

53.5

 

Likely

Johannes Vermeer

53.5

53.5

 

Likely

Red Galilieo

 

53.5

 

Possible

Roger Barows

53.5

53.5

 

No

Desert Skyline

 

53

 

Possible

Duretto

53

53

 

Likely

Finche

53

53

 

Likely

Master Of Reality

52

53

1

Likely

Muntahaa

53

53

 

Likely

Mustajeer

51.5

53

1.5

Likely

Yucatan

53

53

 

Likely

Glory Days

 

52.5

 

Likely

Look Twice

52.5

52.5

 

Possible

Mikki Swallow

52.5

52.5

 

Unlikely

Nagano Gold

52.5

52.5

 

Possible

Raheen House

 

52.5

 

Likely

Vengeur Masque

52.5

52.5

 

Likely

Mootasadir

52.5

52.4

 

Unlikely

Extra Brut

52

52

 

Likely

Mekong

 

52

 

Unlikely

Neufbosc

 

52

 

Likely

True Self

 

52

 

Possible

Weekender

 

52

 

Unlikely

Wells Farhh Go

52.5

52

-0.5

Unlikely

Baghdad

 

51.5

 

Unlikely

Big Duke

51.5

51.5

 

Likely

Count Octave

 

51.5

 

Likely

Downdraft

50

51.5

 

Likely

Shraaoh

51.5

51.5

 

Likely

Sixties Groove

51.5

51.5

 

Likely

Thomas Hobson

51.5

51.5

 

Unlikely

Twilight Payment

51.5

51.5

 

Possible

Ben Vrackie

50

51

1

Possible

Falcon Eight

51.5

51

-0.5

No

Jaameh

51

51

 

Likely

Quorto

51

51

 

No

Steel Prince

51

51

 

Likely

Surprise Baby

51

51

 

Likely

Youngstar

51

51

 

Likely

Low Sun

50.5

50.5

 

Unlikely

Stivers

 

50.5

 

Possible

Ventura Storm

 

50.5

 

Likely

Yogi

50.5

50.5

 

Likely

Broome

50

50

 

Possible

Chapada

50

50

 

Likely

Django Freeman

50

50

 

Likely

Dubai Tradition

50

50

 

Unlikely

Dubhe

50

50

 

Likely

Etymology

50

50

 

Likely

Exemplar

 

50

 

Possible

Felaar

50

50

 

Possible

Furrion 

50

50

 

Likely

Ghostwatch

50

50

 

Likely

Harrison

 

50

 

Possible

Hush Writer 

50

50

 

Possible

Kings Advice

50

50

 

Unlikely

Le Don De Vie

 

50

 

Possible

Lord Belvedere

 

50

 

No

Mugatoo

50

50

 

Unlikely

Rondinella

50

50

 

Likely

Runaway

50

50

 

Possible

Schabau

50

50

 

No

Spanish Mission

50

50

 

Possible

Verry Elleegant

50

50

 

Likely

Vow And Declare

50

50

 

Likely

Wolfe

 

50

 

Likely

 

 

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4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

There will be - these are only those available to bet on through betfair. I expect there will be about 120 runners nominated not in that list.

Any if I was to give any advice, it would be to not put a bet on any of the horses I put a No beside as a nomination. Most of those are No because they are injured etc. I'd save your money, even though one or two I may be wrong on.

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2 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Sorry, but I would never speculate a bet on Sir Charles Road to win a Melbourne Cup. Simply doesnt have the class to beat an international field over 3200m. Sydney Cup in the autumn is a different story.

Probably true but van der hum won in the wet

Edited by Turny
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2 hours ago, Turny said:

Probably true but van der hum won in the wet

yep, great win but long before the race went truly international. Our stayers were far superior to the Ozzies, but the European-breds and Japanese have dominated for 15 years. We need a superior two miler here to be in with any chance, and most of our potential top-line stayers (on pedigree) are sold as yearlings anyway. 

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47 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Twilight Payment has been bought by Williams to be trained by Joseph O'Brien for the cup.

Twilight Payment  Possible >Likely noms out in just under 3 hours

I had Mirage Dancer in my top 5 incidentally for the Caulfield Cup he ran 2nd to Best Solution last year at Newmarket to be trained by Busuttin/Young  might look at him for the MC as well

Saturday the track in Sydney will be heavy the market currently set for a good4/Slow5 so plenty of value on offer horses like Come Play With Me trialled brilliant will shorten as will Petronius even Bivouac and Anaheed and many others 

 

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5 minutes ago, VC! said:

Twilight Payment  Possible >Likely noms out in just under 3 hours

 

Definitely now. He was always being medium supported so thought he was on the better side of possible anyway. Now he is very sure. Been a lot of betting last 24 hours on bf. Horses that maybe people thought wouldn't nom at higher prices, but maybe some know they are to be. Ans the top ones getting a lot of support including my old mate Torcedor!

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