mardigras Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 Some punters are getting excited leading into the Ebor with the news that Raheen House has been bought into by Australian Bloodstock to head to Melbourne for a Caulfield Cup & Melbourne Cup prep. VC might have mentioned this one previously from memory. Already qualified and ready to run in the Ebor at 10s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 22, 2019 Author Share Posted August 22, 2019 As expected, Enable won the Yorkshire Oaks overnight. The runner-up, Magical is no slouch. Tonight we have the Lonsdale Cup at York. A small field of 5. A few here in the markets. Stradivarius, Magic Circle, Falcon Eight and Dee Ex Bee. The first two are unlikely for Melbourne. The last two possible. Magic Circle, the trainer has stated he isn't coming back. But if he won this or run very well, would he change his mind? And the Ebor Saturday night. Looks a fantastic lineup. Those in the current betfair market entered are Withhold, Ben Vrackie, Wells Farhh Go, Prince Of Arran, Mustajeer, Kings Advice and Raheen House. According to some, single digit barriers are no good but it's not something I would agree with. And if it were the case, many of the favs are now not going to win, so you could make an absolute killing. Others to look out for as possible cups horses are Weekender, Barsanti and Baghdad. And of course there is Max Dynamite lining up, a horse with Cup placings to his name. Would Mullins bring him back again as a SH 10yo? My pick, who may be a Cups candidate as well, is Mekong! (Although can't apparently win as drawn 3). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 16/17 – Carried 9-4 or less16/17 – Aged 6 or younger14/17 – Won from a double-figure stall14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before12/17 – Carried 9-1 or less12/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old11/17 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less10/17 – Had 3 or more runs already that I was lucky enough to come across this There were more but I remember a TV program called Eights Enough So that’s where we draw the line Of course 9/4lb is 59kgs so that wiped out the majority of the field, anyway to cut a long story short 1 horse did tick the required boxes and that horse was Dramatic Queen currently around 28-1 BF was matched at 44-1 and a fiver at 48 However the big firmer Raheen House now I wonder who backed that??? Alarm and IQ box set for 12-40am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 What a race. The horse already destined for Oz, Mustajeer does the job. Had barrier 2 VC, so as I mentioned previously, not in line with above. And carried 9-5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 I know Mustajeer I think A part share was purchased the other week from memory Liked the run of Raymond Tusk Will watch the replay several times 40 winks now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 Agree, the run of Raymond Tusk was very good. Also thought Red Galileo was going well at the end. Has qualified for the cup and being a Godolphin horse, might be aimed at the race - although is getting on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 On 7/31/2019 at 2:57 AM, curious said: Might have won if he could have had a claimer on! Be a big chance if he came for the cup. I have heard a report that Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight both bled during the Lonsdale Cup. So I guess we won't see them here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 DXB and Falcon8 drifted remarkably on BF with no takers a sure sign they weren’t coming Andrew Bensley was speaking withJamie Richards this morning and Te Akau are going to try and qualify a horse called (Te Akau) Calliburn (not sure of the spelling) through the Bart Cummings Finche trialled last Friday and it was a cracker he will be ready I usually aim to back 5 horses and currently Finche is at the top of my ratings Finche has had another 12 months in Australia will have a luxury weight top trainer is likely to be a big improver and knowing he ran 4th last year won’t have to improve much Taking a line through other imported stayers who improved after 12 months+ down Under Green Moon Fiorente Almandin 31s for a genuine chance represents great value Count Octave also trialled last Friday and he still has a lot of improvement left, the good thing for CV time is still on his side, but i’m going to need to see more over the coming weeks The Ebor answered a few questions also added a few ???? On quite a few others at this early stage I only have 1 horse locked in and that is Finche I believe Sportsbet is the last of the Bookmakers that have Finche at 30s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 I did a prior estimate of what weight I thought horses would get. Here is my re-estimate based on subsequent performances and any additions to the betfair market. I won't do it for noms as there are too many. But noms close tomorrow so it will be interesting to see who is in. I've added my view on whether I think they are going to nominate as well. (The change is from original estimate to now, if I estimated the horse previously). Horse Orig Weight New Weight Change Nom Expected? Almond Eye 58 58 Very unlikely Avilius 58 58 Likely Stradivarius 57.5 58 0.5 Unlikely Dee Ex Bee 56 57.5 1.5 No Kew Gardens 57.5 57.5 Possible Cross Counter 57 57 Likely Defoe 57 57 Unlikely Ghaiyyath 57 57 No Communique 56.5 Possible Torcedor 56.5 56.5 Likely Marmelo 55.5 56 0.5 Likely Flag Of Honour 55.5 55.5 Possible Ispolini 55 55 Likely Amade 54.5 54.5 No Holdthasigreen 54.5 54.5 Unlikely Latrobe 54 54.5 0.5 Likely Magic Circle 54.5 54.5 No Mirage Dancer 54.5 Likely Morando 54.5 54.5 Unlikely Rekindling 54.5 54.5 No Withhold 54 54.5 1 Possible A Prince Of Arran 54 54 Likely Called To The Bar 54 54 Unlikely Capri 54 54 Possible Rostropovich 54 54 Likely Southern France 53.5 54 0.5 Likely Gold Mount 53.5 53.5 Likely Johannes Vermeer 53.5 53.5 Likely Red Galilieo 53.5 Possible Roger Barows 53.5 53.5 No Desert Skyline 53 Possible Duretto 53 53 Likely Finche 53 53 Likely Master Of Reality 52 53 1 Likely Muntahaa 53 53 Likely Mustajeer 51.5 53 1.5 Likely Yucatan 53 53 Likely Glory Days 52.5 Likely Look Twice 52.5 52.5 Possible Mikki Swallow 52.5 52.5 Unlikely Nagano Gold 52.5 52.5 Possible Raheen House 52.5 Likely Vengeur Masque 52.5 52.5 Likely Mootasadir 52.5 52.4 Unlikely Extra Brut 52 52 Likely Mekong 52 Unlikely Neufbosc 52 Likely True Self 52 Possible Weekender 52 Unlikely Wells Farhh Go 52.5 52 -0.5 Unlikely Baghdad 51.5 Unlikely Big Duke 51.5 51.5 Likely Count Octave 51.5 Likely Downdraft 50 51.5 Likely Shraaoh 51.5 51.5 Likely Sixties Groove 51.5 51.5 Likely Thomas Hobson 51.5 51.5 Unlikely Twilight Payment 51.5 51.5 Possible Ben Vrackie 50 51 1 Possible Falcon Eight 51.5 51 -0.5 No Jaameh 51 51 Likely Quorto 51 51 No Steel Prince 51 51 Likely Surprise Baby 51 51 Likely Youngstar 51 51 Likely Low Sun 50.5 50.5 Unlikely Stivers 50.5 Possible Ventura Storm 50.5 Likely Yogi 50.5 50.5 Likely Broome 50 50 Possible Chapada 50 50 Likely Django Freeman 50 50 Likely Dubai Tradition 50 50 Unlikely Dubhe 50 50 Likely Etymology 50 50 Likely Exemplar 50 Possible Felaar 50 50 Possible Furrion 50 50 Likely Ghostwatch 50 50 Likely Harrison 50 Possible Hush Writer 50 50 Possible Kings Advice 50 50 Unlikely Le Don De Vie 50 Possible Lord Belvedere 50 No Mugatoo 50 50 Unlikely Rondinella 50 50 Likely Runaway 50 50 Possible Schabau 50 50 No Spanish Mission 50 50 Possible Verry Elleegant 50 50 Likely Vow And Declare 50 50 Likely Wolfe 50 Likely 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 No Sir Charles Road - interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Great stuff Mardi I wonder if Gundown will be among noms now with Mike Moroney resumes Saturday probably need a start in the BART Cummings also 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Turny said: No Sir Charles Road - interesting Lance was interviewed over the ditch here and said SIr Charles Road main aim was the Metropolitan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, Turny said: No Sir Charles Road - interesting There will be - these are only those available to bet on through betfair. I expect there will be about 120 runners nominated not in that list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, mardigras said: There will be - these are only those available to bet on through betfair. I expect there will be about 120 runners nominated not in that list. Any if I was to give any advice, it would be to not put a bet on any of the horses I put a No beside as a nomination. Most of those are No because they are injured etc. I'd save your money, even though one or two I may be wrong on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Sorry, but I would never speculate a bet on Sir Charles Road to win a Melbourne Cup. Simply doesnt have the class to beat an international field over 3200m. Sydney Cup in the autumn is a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Sir Charles Road finished 8th last year the first anzac horse home thought a year on May be a better chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turny Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Maximus said: Sorry, but I would never speculate a bet on Sir Charles Road to win a Melbourne Cup. Simply doesnt have the class to beat an international field over 3200m. Sydney Cup in the autumn is a different story. Probably true but van der hum won in the wet Edited August 28, 2019 by Turny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Turny said: Probably true but van der hum won in the wet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 My early selection for the cup this year is Mirage Dancer. I have it with enough weight to make field. And at 85s on betfair, is acceptable to me at this stage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 1 hour ago, VC! said: Great stuff Mardi I wonder if Gundown will be among noms now with Mike Moroney resumes Saturday probably need a start in the BART Cummings also Bart Cummings a good option before the heat goes on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Turny said: Probably true but van der hum won in the wet yep, great win but long before the race went truly international. Our stayers were far superior to the Ozzies, but the European-breds and Japanese have dominated for 15 years. We need a superior two miler here to be in with any chance, and most of our potential top-line stayers (on pedigree) are sold as yearlings anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 Twilight Payment has been bought by Williams to be trained by Joseph O'Brien for the cup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 47 minutes ago, mardigras said: Twilight Payment has been bought by Williams to be trained by Joseph O'Brien for the cup. Twilight Payment Possible >Likely noms out in just under 3 hours I had Mirage Dancer in my top 5 incidentally for the Caulfield Cup he ran 2nd to Best Solution last year at Newmarket to be trained by Busuttin/Young might look at him for the MC as well Saturday the track in Sydney will be heavy the market currently set for a good4/Slow5 so plenty of value on offer horses like Come Play With Me trialled brilliant will shorten as will Petronius even Bivouac and Anaheed and many others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, VC! said: Twilight Payment Possible >Likely noms out in just under 3 hours Definitely now. He was always being medium supported so thought he was on the better side of possible anyway. Now he is very sure. Been a lot of betting last 24 hours on bf. Horses that maybe people thought wouldn't nom at higher prices, but maybe some know they are to be. Ans the top ones getting a lot of support including my old mate Torcedor! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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