mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 152 noms for Melbourne Cup. Probably a little less than expected. https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Nominations.aspx?Key=2019Nov05%2CVIC%2CFlemington Of the higher up the odds, missing are Withhold, Spanish Mission, Ghostwatch, Dubhe and Count Octave. Buckhurst got a nom!. Here is the Caulfield Cup for those interested (with 143 noms). https://racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Nominations.aspx?Key=2019Oct19%2CVIC%2CCaulfield 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 44 of the 92 in the betfair market were nominated. They comprised 34/44 I indicated 'Likely' 9/21 I indicated 'Possible' 1/17 I indicated 'Unlikely/Very Unlikely' 0/10 I indicated 'No' The one that was Unlikely was Morando. Aiden O'Brein has nommed some very good horses. Whether they come is always another matter. Such as Constantinople for example 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Yes very happy Buckhurst got a nom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 1 minute ago, VC! said: Yes very happy Buckhurst got a nom Will they come? And what price do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 (edited) 32 minutes ago, mardigras said: Will they come? And what price do you think? The Irish St Leger r will probably give us the answer next month II Paradiso and Constantinople also likely for the St Leger the race should be a good form guide As for what price this far out and the uncertainty you wouldn’t be taking less than 100-1 Edited August 29, 2019 by VC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, VC! said: The Irish St Leger r will probably give us the answer next month II Paradiso and Constantinople also likely for the St Leger the race should be a good form guide As for what price this far out and the uncertainty you wouldn’t be taking less than 100-1 I think Il Paradiso may come. Just a feeling at this stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, mardigras said: I think Il Paradiso may come. Just a feeling at this stage. I think so a lot to digest at the minute with the Caulfield Cup also out Our Candidate interesting nom been untouched lately Harripour there’s just something about running left handed for me I can’t explain it I have no physical evidence not sure it will make the CC field betting suspended at the moment will be interesting to watch the activity once its back up and running Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 13 hours ago, VC! said: As for what price this far out and the uncertainty you wouldn’t be taking less than 100-1 Trading around 65 - 70 currently Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Trading around 65 - 70 currently Where do you think he would sit in order of entry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, VC! said: Where do you think he would sit in order of entry I'd say weight wise, would easily make the field given their weight is assessed against the benchmarks and the benchmark straight away gives them an advantage. At the moment, the horse is not qualified so from an order of entry, would be very low which would change as soon as the horse qualified. Either St Leger can qualify the horse with a top 5 placing (I think) - but also nominated for a G3 which would only require a top 3 placing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 30, 2019 Author Share Posted August 30, 2019 My mate Torcedor ran again last night in the Listed Steher Cup. Ran 7th of 8. Beaten a fair way out. Will they still come? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 He must’ve been good to you in the past? looks like a lay bet to me for a small profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 30, 2019 Author Share Posted August 30, 2019 3 hours ago, VC! said: He must’ve been good to you in the past? looks like a lay bet to me for a small profit Actually , I like the horse. But I just don't think he likes travel and maybe past his best now. I just say those things because I can't believe people would be backing him at the odds they did when he hadn't even got to Oz. After his run prior, he was being backed at 19s! He was and still is my worst result. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 30, 2019 Share Posted August 30, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: Actually , I like the horse. But I just don't think he likes travel and maybe past his best now. I just say those things because I can't believe people would be backing him at the odds they did when he hadn't even got to Oz. After his run prior, he was being backed at 19s! He was and still is my worst result. I can’t believe how many stupid people are out there Lay at the bottom of the market and back at the top If you’ve managed to lay Torcedor at the 22s then you’ve done your job very well Im sure you’ve had plenty practice at this Mardi taking money of stupid people You don’t even have to consider backing it until quarantine as after that run it’s likely to stay put!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 30, 2019 Author Share Posted August 30, 2019 With noms out, there are now plenty of nominations running around the tracks today. In NZ/Oz/UK, there are 37 Caulfield Cup noms lining up and 29 Melbourne Cup noms. Stivers makes his much anticipated debut for Dermot Weld in a Listed race at Chester. Holds a Caulfield nom as well which is interesting. Other horses reasonably high in markets starting today are Steel Prince, Shraaoh and Heart Of Grace at Rosehill. Hartnell, Humidor, Amphritite, So Si Bon, Oohood and Material Man at Caulfield. NZ Derby winner Crown Prosecutor resumes at Ruakaka. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 23 hours ago, mardigras said: Stivers makes his much anticipated debut for Dermot Weld in a Listed race at Chester. Holds a Caulfield nom as well which is interesting. Not a flash debut either! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 On 8/29/2019 at 4:34 PM, mardigras said: Aiden O'Brein has nommed some very good horses. Whether they come is always another matter. Such as Constantinople for example Hayes has bought a share in Constantinople (as well as Cape Of Good Hope), so it looks like he will be heading down. Currently the fav on betfair. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 Couple of interesting late noms for the Caulfield Cup today. Constantinople and Danceteria both supplemented at around $6k cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 43 Caulfield Cup noms are likely to face the starter today along with 31 Melbourne Cup noms. Higher profile runners today are Finche, Avilius, Duretto, Youngstar, Homesman, Kenedna, Neufbosc, Shraaoh, Surprise Baby, The Chosen One and Prince Of Arran overnight at Kempton. VC has been keen on Finche so will be interesting to see how he starts his prep. Outside of those above betting wise there has been a small amount of interest in for Angel Of Truth and Scarlet Dream in the Caulfield Cup 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hesi Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Wyong Cup, Blue Breeze going backwards a long way from home. MC, not on that run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 Weights are out. Below includes those I weighted pre nom - to how Carpenter has weighted them. Most have gone up in the realm of 1.0kg maybe as a result of realigning to 58kg (after dropping Avilius to below that). Horses very well treated to me are Runaway, Twilight Payment and Sixties Groove. All likely to make field if they decide to go that way. Whereas may have struggled on the weight I had them at. A number of the hype horses got around 2.0kg up on me. Shows how easily Carpenter gets influenced. And for those that think weight is key, the connections of Torcedor must be laughing. Probably dropped him that much to try and entice them to still come out. VC - I guess with Avilius getting 57.5 - they will be reluctant to run? He has drifted well before today anyway. Horse Orig Weight New Weight Change Nom Expected? Nom Actual Weight Variation to me Almond Eye 58 58 Very unlikely No x Avilius 58 58 Likely Yes 57.5 -0.50 Stradivarius 57.5 58 0.5 Unlikely No x Dee Ex Bee 56 57.5 1.5 No No x Kew Gardens 57.5 57.5 Possible Yes 58 0.50 Cross Counter 57 57 Likely Yes 57.5 0.50 Defoe 57 57 Unlikely No x Ghaiyyath 57 57 No No x Communique 56.5 Possible No x Torcedor 56.5 56.5 Likely Yes 53.5 -3.00 Marmelo 55.5 56 0.5 Likely Yes 56 0.00 Flag Of Honour 55.5 55.5 Possible No x Ispolini 55 55 Likely Yes 55 0.00 Amade 54.5 54.5 No No x Holdthasigreen 54.5 54.5 Unlikely No x Latrobe 54 54.5 0.5 Likely Yes 55 0.50 Magic Circle 54.5 54.5 No No x Mirage Dancer 54.5 Likely Yes 55.5 1.00 Morando 54.5 54.5 Unlikely Yes 54.5 0.00 Rekindling 54.5 54.5 No No x Withhold 54 54.5 1 Possible No x A Prince Of Arran 54 54 Likely Yes 53 -1.00 Called To The Bar 54 54 Unlikely No x Capri 54 54 Possible No x Rostropovich 54 54 Likely Yes 55 1.00 Southern France 53.5 54 0.5 Likely Yes 55.5 1.50 Gold Mount 53.5 53.5 Likely Yes 54 0.50 Johannes Vermeer 53.5 53.5 Likely Yes 55 1.50 Red Galilieo 53.5 Possible Yes 52.5 -1.00 Roger Barows 53.5 53.5 No No x Desert Skyline 53 Possible Yes 53 0.00 Duretto 53 53 Likely Yes 53.5 0.50 Finche 53 53 Likely Yes 54 1.00 Master Of Reality 52 53 1 Likely Yes 55.5 2.50 Muntahaa 53 53 Likely Yes 54 1.00 Mustajeer 51.5 53 1.5 Likely Yes 55 2.00 Yucatan 53 53 Likely Yes 54.5 1.50 Glory Days 52.5 Likely Yes 52 -0.50 Look Twice 52.5 52.5 Possible No x Mikki Swallow 52.5 52.5 Unlikely No x Nagano Gold 52.5 52.5 Possible No x Raheen House 52.5 Likely Yes 53 0.50 Vengeur Masque 52.5 52.5 Likely No x Mootasadir 52.5 52.4 Unlikely No x Extra Brut 52 52 Likely No x Mekong 52 Unlikely No x Neufbosc 52 Likely Yes 53.5 1.50 True Self 52 Possible Yes 51.5 -0.50 Weekender 52 Unlikely No x Wells Farhh Go 52.5 52 -0.5 Unlikely No x Baghdad 51.5 Unlikely No x Big Duke 51.5 51.5 Likely Yes 53.5 2.00 Count Octave 51.5 Likely No x Downdraft 50 51.5 Likely Yes 53.5 2.00 Shraaoh 51.5 51.5 Likely Yes 53.5 2.00 Sixties Groove 51.5 51.5 Likely Yes 54 2.50 Thomas Hobson 51.5 51.5 Unlikely No x Twilight Payment 51.5 51.5 Possible Yes 55 3.50 Ben Vrackie 50 51 1 Possible No x Falcon Eight 51.5 51 -0.5 No No x Jaameh 51 51 Likely No x Quorto 51 51 No No x Steel Prince 51 51 Likely Yes 52.5 1.50 Surprise Baby 51 51 Likely Yes 52.5 1.50 Youngstar 51 51 Likely Yes 52 1.00 Low Sun 50.5 50.5 Unlikely No x Stivers 50.5 Possible Yes 51.5 1.00 Ventura Storm 50.5 Likely No x Yogi 50.5 50.5 Likely Yes 52 1.50 Broome 50 50 Possible No x Chapada 50 50 Likely No x Django Freeman 50 50 Likely Yes 52.5 2.50 Dubai Tradition 50 50 Unlikely No x Dubhe 50 50 Likely No x Etymology 50 50 Likely Yes 50.5 0.50 Exemplar 50 Possible Yes 50 0.00 Felaar 50 50 Possible No x Furrion 50 50 Likely No x Ghostwatch 50 50 Likely No x Harrison 50 Possible Yes 50 0.00 Hush Writer 50 50 Possible Yes 50 0.00 Kings Advice 50 50 Unlikely No x Le Don De Vie 50 Possible No x Lord Belvedere 50 No No x Mugatoo 50 50 Unlikely No x Rondinella 50 50 Likely No x Runaway 50 50 Possible Yes 52 2.00 Schabau 50 50 No No x Spanish Mission 50 50 Possible No x Verry Elleegant 50 50 Likely Yes 52 2.00 Vow And Declare 50 50 Likely Yes 52 2.00 Wolfe 50 Likely Yes 50 0.00 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Another part of the puzzle released today Finche cracking return will be ready to win 3rd up I imagine already locked in as one of my 5 4 more to Choose I have a short list of 30 so plenty to consider Avilius not one for me at any weight Yucatan high up on my list didn’t look comfortable on the rain affected track last year has had another 12 months in Aus What would a horse like Our Candidate need to do to qualify??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, VC! said: What would a horse like Our Candidate need to do to qualify??? Likely either win the Bart Cummings or the Lexus. Both ballot free. Will struggle to earn weight penalties to get there. Even the Metrop winner won't always qualify (and may not make the field there either) It's possible but not going to be easy. And Cross Counter was always going to get around what he got - yet bf have started lengthening his price - which must be based on weight as Appleby has already stated he is still coming. Edited September 10, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, VC! said: Finche cracking return will be ready to win 3rd up I imagine already locked in as one of my 5 Finche looking in the mix. Long way to go and may depend on which of the fresh Europeans actually arrive for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Constantinople must be a big chance Not running in the St Leger neither is Buckhurst.....I’m of the opinion it could be next year for Buckhurst II Paradiso a must watch Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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