VC! Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, mardigras said: Likely either win the Bart Cummings or the Lexus. Both ballot free. Will struggle to earn weight penalties to get there. Even the Metrop winner won't always qualify (and may not make the field there either) What about the Geelong Cup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, VC! said: Constantinople must be a big chance Not running in the St Leger neither is Buckhurst.....I’m of the opinion it could be next year for Buckhurst II Paradiso a must watch Sunday Not sure what is happening with Buckhurst - but is still in the G3 on Saturday currently. A top 3 qualifies him for the cup and that maybe enough to bring him down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 10, 2019 Share Posted September 10, 2019 Just announced McEvoy sticks with Redzel for the Everest Loyalty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 10, 2019 Author Share Posted September 10, 2019 (edited) No wonder people struggle with punting. This has just come out. Supposedly from someone who you would think should have even half a clue. Wrong. https://www.punters.com.au/news/melbourne-cup-2019%3a-internationals-to-back-and-avoid-_183509/ In this report, he claims this - Another big-money buy, Constantinople, carries 52.5kg for Lindsay Park, and it now looks like they’ll need a solid run from their Caulfield Cup late entrant to squeeze into the Melbourne Cup field. They already sit in the top 12 without any horses pulling out. I somehow don't think 13 horses can jump over top if they decided to come and not race at all before the cup. The guy is looney tunes. Surely people don't read and believe this crap. Well certainly, the horse may not race in either the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup - but it sure as hell won't be due to not having enough weight to make the ballot. FFS. Punters must have read it though, and took all that was available on the lay side on the horse up to 32s given he was trading in the mid teens a week ago. Edited September 10, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 If betting antepost on the cup, be aware there is a potential shortage of quarantine spots for the second shipment of horses. Those racing this weekend apparently can't enter quarantine in time for the first shipment . Unless NSW facilities are used, only 8 spots are available for the second shipment and 6th spot is currently held by Master Of Reality with La Trobe 7th. However, that excludes any Aidan O'Brien horses. And some such as Il Paradiso and Buckhurst have lower ratings currently than La Trobe. So if the selection is ratings based (as opposed to order of entry based), some may miss out on a spot - certainly at Werribee - if the second shipment was the plan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Is there possibly an alternative quarantine arrangement in the works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 1 hour ago, curious said: Is there possibly an alternative quarantine arrangement in the works? NSW at Canterbury are available. I understand that if that was used, they come out of quarantine in time for the cup, but not the Cox Plate. Not sure why, may be due to flights or other logistics such as a couple of Aidan O'Brien sprinters heading there already. So for those that may have been Cox Plate arrivals (which the second shipment supports at Werribee), they couldn't use that option from my understanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 On 9/10/2019 at 4:48 PM, VC! said: What about the Geelong Cup? Not ballot free and might need 2.5kg+ rehandicap. Which would be rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 hours ago, mardigras said: Not ballot free and might need 2.5kg+ rehandicap. Which would be rare. 1 kg handicap for winning the Newcastle GC and 1.5 kg handicap for winning the Metrop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 2 hours ago, VC! said: 1 kg handicap for winning the Newcastle GC and 1.5 kg handicap for winning the Metrop For sure. It's doable. But not many get two rehandicaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 Those interested can find the order of entry here. Those unqualified at this stage obviously fall below the lowest weighted that have qualified. https://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Weights.aspx?Key=2019Nov05,VIC,Flemington Nothing unexpected here. With a lot of horses qualified and at around the 53kg+ mark (55 meet criteria for an aged horse at 53kg+), will make things tough. But the attrition rate is always high. Although interesting, many offshore have said they are coming compared to previous years. And coming early. Which is likely to put increased pressure on making the final field.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 (edited) Plenty of aspirants racing this weekend. Including a large contingent in UK/Ire. I see that one horse that had originally been targeting the German St Leger as its final lead up to the Melbourne Cup, is not entered for the race (Sunday) - that being Torcedor. Ispolini is currently entered for that race however. And large numbers in OZ with noms. Spring is in the air. Edited September 12, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie Nicks Off Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 Torcedor may struggle to get a start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 12, 2019 Author Share Posted September 12, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Stevie Nicks Off said: Torcedor may struggle to get a start My gut feeling is that Torcedor has been retired. Is 42nd on the ballot. Should be pretty well assured at that mark. Edited September 12, 2019 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 3 hours ago, mardigras said: My gut feeling is that Torcedor has been retired. Is 42nd on the ballot. Should be pretty well assured at that mark. Well he isn't retired. He is changing stables to Paul Preusker. And has entered quarantine. I suspect the plan has changed to have a pre cup run in Oz now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 Here are the runners that have entered quarantine with a cups nom Danceteria (David Menuisier) Mirage Dancer* (Trent Busuttin) Mustajeer* (Kris Lees) Red Galileo (Saeed bin Suroor) Raymond Tusk (Richard Hannon) Gold Mount (Ian Williams) Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop) Raheen House (William Haggas) Constantinople* (Lindsay Park) Cape Of Good Hope* (Lindsay Park) Torcedor* (Paul Preusker) Haky (John Hammond) Prince of Arran (Charlie Fellowes) True Self (Willie Mullins) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 27 Caulfield Cup hopefuls and 37 Melbourne Cup hopefuls looking to face the starter. In Oz, some of the high profile runners are Fifty Stars, Hartnell, Humidor, Kings Will Dream, Mr Quickie, Oohood, Qafila, Rostropovich, Yucatan and Glory Days is also in the mix. In UK/Ire there is Il Paradiso, Buckhurst, Technician, Norway, Hunting Horn, Magic Wand, Dashing Willoughby, Western Australia, Mount Everest, Eminence and our mate Stivers. And of course tomorrow in Germany, Ispolini. Buckhurst still holds a Cox Plate nom. A top 3 also qualifies for the Melbourne Cup. Aidan has Mount Everest returning and I think they are expecting a top run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 13, 2019 Author Share Posted September 13, 2019 And tomorrow the Irish St Leger with the likes of Cross Counter, Kew Gardens, Latrobe, Master Of Reality, Southern France and Twilight Payment. A race that could have a major impact on the cup market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 On 8/23/2019 at 9:04 AM, mardigras said: As expected, Enable won the Yorkshire Oaks overnight. The runner-up, Magical is no slouch. Magical wins the G1 Irish Champion Stakes by 2+ lengths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 15, 2019 Share Posted September 15, 2019 Strolled in. No slouch indeed. Did Stivers run? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Stivers ran in the G3 against Norway and Buckhurst. Ran at the back the whole way and didn't get any closer. 5 lengths last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Ispolini won the German St Leger. Not much to say about the Irish St Leger. MC noms filled 2nd to 7th. Kew Gardens stayed the best for 2nd. Is top quality but whether he comes is unknown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 A few falling along the way already. Japanese noms Meiner Munsch and Meiner Fahrong not coming and pulled out of quarantine following a review of their order of entry position. And German import, Django Freeman sidelined due to knee injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 25, 2019 Author Share Posted September 25, 2019 You'd be pretty happy VC with where Finche is at. All the best with him, I wasn't that taken with the run last weekend - but hey, long way to go and not a race particularly suited to him. Seems very dour. Any horses not in quarantine already that are planning for the cup, I think tonight is the timeframe they are due into quarantine. So that will be interesting to see who goes in. Especially from the likes of Aidan O'Brien who has kept Magic Wand and Hunting Horn in the Cox Plate. I'm looking forward to seeing the Japanese runners get to the track - especially Mer De Glace. Currently around equal fav with Mr Quickie for the Caulfield Cup. And just started getting some bets in the Melbourne Cup as well (although not qualified as yet, a top 8 in the CC does that). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, mardigras said: You'd be pretty happy VC with where Finche is at. All the best with him, I wasn't that taken with the run last weekend - but hey, long way to go and not a race particularly suited to him. Seems very dour. Pretty happy I have him locked and loaded Going of his trials and first up run I had Finche ready to win 3rd up, the fact he won 2nd Up was not surprising as he looked to map beautifully and the field was nothing special his fitness will come on tremendously, he doesn’t possess that turn off foot the real superstars seem to have, but like you say is very dour and will be much better suited to the 2 mile I would like to see them bypass the Metrop straight into the Caulfield Cup this IMO will top him off just nicely for the Cup he can then go into the Cup primed 4th up I haven’t settled on my other selections yet I need to see them on the plane how they traveled and how their work is at Werribee, last year Magic Circle’s work was awful and he ran accordingly on track conditions that were ordered to suit Mirage Dancer still great odds I just need to start doing some You Tube work now on videos on various runners Mr Quickie rated very well on his return he’s a progressive type that puts him well within reach and a serious Caulfield Cup contender The Cox Plate finding this a difficult race to assess at present Avilius he’s best suited to a Cox Plate unlikely Melbourne Cup runner Like you said Aiden O’Brien who gets the spots on the plane????? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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