mardigras Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) Spring racing getting closer. A few possibly interesting things. 1. The nomination date for both races has been brought forward to August 3rd. (largely due to point 2) 2. The new scanning/health and safety rules have not been met well with the Euros generally. Many stating they are too difficult to consider bringing horses over. Hence point 1 is to try and identify what the possible NH interest will be. 3. New hype horse Incentivise now heads the markets for both races. Yes, impressive winning races. At of course could well win these races. I'd be wary backing Incentivise, especially for the Caulfield Cup. The main issue this horse will face is that it likely will be weighted on the minimum. And given it has still been running around in late June, having had 8 starts this prep (first 3 as a maiden), it won't be able to have a long break and win races to lift its weight. Which is why I would be cautious around the Caulfield Cup. The horse will likely need to win a ballot free race to run in either. Most of the ballot free races into the Caulfield Cup are 2000m or less from now, outside the Herbert Power which would mean running back to back into the Caulfield Cup. And I'm not sure they will target those shorter races (could be wrong), if he targets those shorter lead in races, he would likely have to win the Caulfield Cup to then make the Melbourne Cup (or win the Hotham on Derby day). I suspect they will want to try and win the Bart Cummings as a ballot free Melbourne Cup race. It has been increasingly difficult to make the field just from weight penalties alone, when weighted on the minimum. And for those kiwis with horses they think are decent stayers, in the advent that the Euros don't come in any great numbers, this year gives NZ trained horses the likely best opportunity to win these races. The depth without the Euros will be shallow, even with the NH horses already trained there. I might be wrong, but the current direction the fields are taking is full of a bunch of hacks. Edited June 26, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.