mardigras Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 (edited) Spring racing getting closer. A few possibly interesting things. 1. The nomination date for both races has been brought forward to August 3rd. (largely due to point 2) 2. The new scanning/health and safety rules have not been met well with the Euros generally. Many stating they are too difficult to consider bringing horses over. Hence point 1 is to try and identify what the possible NH interest will be. 3. New hype horse Incentivise now heads the markets for both races. Yes, impressive winning races. At of course could well win these races. I'd be wary backing Incentivise, especially for the Caulfield Cup. The main issue this horse will face is that it likely will be weighted on the minimum. And given it has still been running around in late June, having had 8 starts this prep (first 3 as a maiden), it won't be able to have a long break and win races to lift its weight. Which is why I would be cautious around the Caulfield Cup. The horse will likely need to win a ballot free race to run in either. Most of the ballot free races into the Caulfield Cup are 2000m or less from now, outside the Herbert Power which would mean running back to back into the Caulfield Cup. And I'm not sure they will target those shorter races (could be wrong), if he targets those shorter lead in races, he would likely have to win the Caulfield Cup to then make the Melbourne Cup (or win the Hotham on Derby day). I suspect they will want to try and win the Bart Cummings as a ballot free Melbourne Cup race. It has been increasingly difficult to make the field just from weight penalties alone, when weighted on the minimum. And for those kiwis with horses they think are decent stayers, in the advent that the Euros don't come in any great numbers, this year gives NZ trained horses the likely best opportunity to win these races. The depth without the Euros will be shallow, even with the NH horses already trained there. I might be wrong, but the current direction the fields are taking is full of a bunch of hacks. Edited June 26, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 I read an indicator from Greg Carpenter suggesting the horse (Incentivise) might get around 53kg for the cups. If that is the case, then he is handicapping on hype. I would certainly have expected him to get 50kg max. Still it will help the price I am laying him off at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 Nominations taken today. It will be interesting (to me at least), who nominates from Europe. I have Away He Goes, Spanish Mission and Prince of Arran (needs to perform in the interim to come over). Mirann will be nommed but he would have to win the Ebor to make the field I would think. And Chilean horse Panfield (now in HK) is reported as being a likely nom. Who else?? Godolphin stated not bringing any, O'Brien being anti new requirements. Williams has already brought over a few (Pondus, Dawn Patrol, Point Nepean), so not sure if any other Joseph O'Brien runners will be nommed. True Self is out injured. Totals of nominations might make interesting reading - local noms may well be up thinking it will be easier to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 Really nice trial the other day from Dashing Willoughby now with Chris Waller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, VC! said: Really nice trial the other day from Dashing Willoughby now with Chris Waller Whilst OK for Melbourne Cup, possibly biggest issue for Caulfield Cup is that he hasn't currently passed the first elimination clause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 Decent nom numbers - quite a lot down on last year for internationals. Joseph O'Brien propping them up with 4 himself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 (edited) NZ TAB are operating a great Melbourne Cup book. 31 horses currently at odds of 26 or less. What a shocker. Pretty good Caulfield Cup as well. 24 horses at 26 or less. What a great service to punters. Edited August 21, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Skazino wins the Prix Kergolay in what was a pretty decent effort coming from many lengths off the lead halfway down the straight. Will they pay the $1k for a late entry to the cup? Hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 Looking like no NSW riders will be riding the Melbourne Spring. Boss out of quarantine and heading back to NSW for their carnival.(reportedly, ride on Incentivise up for grabs again). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, mardigras said: Looking like no NSW riders will be riding the Melbourne Spring. Boss out of quarantine and heading back to NSW for their carnival.(reportedly, ride on Incentivise up for grabs again). I’ve only backed one horse so far in the MC and that’s Dashing Willoughby, resumes at Kembla Grange on Saturday I heard they were hoping for a crowd of around 10k Caulfield Cup day, members only, I may have that wrong just caught the end of it No surprise to see the NSW riders stay in Sydney the Everest is worth a fortune, for me the Melbourne Carnival is #1 Caulfield Cup,Cox Plate, Derby and Melbourne Cup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 26, 2021 Author Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 minute ago, VC! said: I’ve only backed one horse so far in the MC and that’s Dashing Willoughby, resumes at Kembla Grange on Saturday I heard they were hoping for a crowd of around 10k Caulfield Cup day, members only, I may have that wrong just caught the end of it No surprise to see the NSW riders stay in Sydney the Everest is worth a fortune, for me the Melbourne Carnival is #1 Caulfield Cup,Cox Plate, Derby and Melbourne Cup. I don't think they are being given the choice. Apparently NT changed their minds and sent Boss packing. So I don't think they will get in even if they wanted to. DW has been seeing a bit of betting - traded at over 400 initially for MCup and traded recently at 60s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 1 minute ago, mardigras said: I don't think they are being given the choice. Apparently NT changed their minds and sent Boss packing. So I don't think they will get in even if they wanted to. DW has been seeing a bit of betting - traded at over 400 initially for MCup and traded recently at 60s. Yeah I can’t keep up with it all, one needs to have had their first shot to enter QLD I secured 200-1 about DW on Sportsbet 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Backed him early for the cups last year TC.He ever seemed to settle or acclimatise in Aus last prep. I have a small £20 on this prep! All the best 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 46 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said: Backed him early for the cups last year TC.He ever seemed to settle or acclimatise in Aus last prep. I have a small £20 on this prep! All the best I agree MC he never settled or acclimatised last year, now he’s been here nearly 12 months he’s enjoyed a nice spell and joined Chris Waller, since coming back into work DW has had 2 trials first one he ran 2nd over 900 with the magic millions winner running 3rd in that heat His latest trial he won nudging out Montefilia who is a very handy mare she started odds on in the VRC Oaks last year, there was 3-4 lengths back to 3rd Shared Ambition When one thinks back 12 months Dashing Willoughby beat Spanish Mission who is close to favourite for this years cup 3rd in that race was Cross Counter. DW a group 1 winner over Dee Ex Bee that’s “A” grade form line , this horse’s main target is the cup!!! Dashing Willoughby was also tipped by Mardi last year so it’s obviously high on ability, once it joined the Waller yard, and I seen it’s two trials and knowing it had qualified for the MC along with being nominated I thought the 200-1 on offer was worth the risk this far out, J Mac is onboard Saturday so hoping it returns a more than satisfactory run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 18 hours ago, mardigras said: Looking like no NSW riders will be riding the Melbourne Spring. Boss out of quarantine and heading back to NSW for their carnival.(reportedly, ride on Incentivise up for grabs again). Prebble given ride on Incentivise. Odds on him still too short in my view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Globederby19 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 27, 2021 Author Share Posted August 27, 2021 Kah and co out of spring carnival. Given 3 months! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, mardigras said: Kah and co out of spring carnival. Given 3 months! Silly twits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 (edited) Glycon - was a late nom for both the Caulfield and Melbourne cups - and overnight wins a G2 at Deauville. Will they continue on to Oz. I hope so. Unbeaten at both starts at 12f+ (G3/G2) Edited August 29, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, mardigras said: Glycon - was a late nom for both the Caulfield and Melbourne cups - and overnight wins a G2 at Deauville. Will they continue on to Oz. I hope so. Unbeaten at both starts at 12f+ (G3/G2) Not the strongest Group 2 you'll ever see with just five runners. The second was closer on the better ground today than he was in the Reux at the beginning of the month. SUBLIMIS continues to frustrate a little - you could argue on a line through IN SWOOP he's Group 1 class yet he continues to find others to beat him. I've always thought he was a 2800m horse on quick ground - he is only really good at 2400m when it's deep ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/26/2021 at 6:37 PM, VC! said: I’ve only backed one horse so far in the MC and that’s Dashing Willoughby, resumes at Kembla Grange on Saturday I heard they were hoping for a crowd of around 10k Caulfield Cup day, members only, I may have that wrong just caught the end of it No surprise to see the NSW riders stay in Sydney the Everest is worth a fortune, for me the Melbourne Carnival is #1 Caulfield Cup,Cox Plate, Derby and Melbourne Cup. Max's order of preference is: #1 Cox Plate, #2 Melbourne Cup #3 Caulfield Cup #4 VRC Derby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 On 8/3/2021 at 7:38 AM, VC! said: Really nice trial the other day from Dashing Willoughby now with Chris Waller do you know why DW was scratched from the race at Kembla? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Maximus said: do you know why DW was scratched from the race at Kembla? Read as scratched on vets advice. But not 100% Edited August 29, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, Maximus said: Max's order of preference is: #1 Cox Plate, #2 Melbourne Cup #3 Caulfield Cup #4 VRC Derby For me, MC, CC, Cox, Derby - but from the best horses perspective, Cox. The atmosphere difference at a MC compared to most Cox Plates is huge imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, mardigras said: Read as scratched on vets advice. But not 100% I dont see why he is so tight in the market based don previous form here. The 'Waller' factor is one thing but DW would have had to imp[rove a ton in the last 12 months to be a contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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