mardigras Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Maximus said: I dont see why he is so tight in the market based don previous form here. The 'Waller' factor is one thing but DW would have had to imp[rove a ton in the last 12 months to be a contender. I don't they are even considering those runs when assessing his ability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brown fox Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Maximus said: Max's order of preference is: #1 Cox Plate, #2 Melbourne Cup #3 Caulfield Cup #4 VRC Derby My order is #1Cox Plate,#2 Caulfield Cup,#3Derby,#4 Melbourne Cup 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5 hours ago, mardigras said: Glycon - was a late nom for both the Caulfield and Melbourne cups - and overnight wins a G2 at Deauville. Will they continue on to Oz. I hope so. Unbeaten at both starts at 12f+ (G3/G2) Deauville might be a nice spot for your European relocation. One of my favourite tracks in the world. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Maximus said: do you know why DW was scratched from the race at Kembla? Not sure why it was scratched Nominated for Wyong gold cup Friday and the Chelmsford Saturday MC CP CC Derby in that order As for why it’s shortening you’ll learn that answer very soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 hours ago, VC! said: Not sure why it was scratched Nominated for Wyong gold cup Friday and the Chelmsford Saturday MC CP CC Derby in that order As for why it’s shortening you’ll learn that answer very soon J Mac? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Maximus said: J Mac? JMac was engaged last Saturday before the scratching, so possibly rides him in his lead up races, However expecting J Mac to stay in Sydney and ride Nature Strip in the Everest, who incidentally trialled enormous the other day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 6 hours ago, VC! said: JMac was engaged last Saturday before the scratching, so possibly rides him in his lead up races, However expecting J Mac to stay in Sydney and ride Nature Strip in the Everest, who incidentally trialled enormous the other day Yes, I'm not expecting NSW riders in Melbourne for spring. Boss hasn't been allowed to go and had to give up Incentivise rides. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 ..so why is it shortening? Hand over the info, old son! Please. MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 29 minutes ago, Maximus said: ..so why is it shortening? Hand over the info, old son! Please. MM Probably for the same reasons any horse shortens this far out. Either horse is showing itself to be at a level more like it has shown in the past - or at a level where they believe it has improved further from that. Or in some cases - due to things like trials for horses coming back from a spell, or from internal assessment/views of what is happening with the horse. In some cases, they happen just due to publicly available announcements on the horse - positive publicity of a horse's prep leading up to racing will in most cases increase bets on the runner. And vice versa, negativity will often cause a horse to drift. There have been massive shorteners already in the cup markets - and the Melbourne Cup is still more than 2 months away. Take Cormorant for example. Was around 200s to 300s early on betfair. Then came into high 30s. Isn't even qualified for the cup either. 26s on NZ TAB currently - 60s on betfair. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Maximus said: ..so why is it shortening? Hand over the info, old son! Please. MM I’ve already explained it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 PRINCE OF ARRAN runs at Kempton on Saturday in the September Stakes over 2400m on the Polytrack. He's outsider of five in a race headed by HUKUM - there's an interesting runner called HAMISH who is second fav. Worth noting back in 2019 he got to within a length and a half of AWAY HE GOES one day. I know he's not in the field this year but I just wonder if they might be plotting a 2022 Melbourne Cup run with this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 Fellowes has suggested that POA will be heading down for a 4th attempt at the cup. I understand he has gone through the scans. Originally I had read that this race was going to be the decision point (and it may still be), so will be interesting to see how he goes - has used this race in the past (3rd both last two years) prior to heading down under. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 On 8/31/2021 at 12:53 PM, Maximus said: ..so why is it shortening? Hand over the info, old son! Please. MM If he starts today in the Wyong Gold Cup - he is currently around equal favourite - so will give an indication as to where he's at fitness wise. Or will they wait until tomorrow for a harder task over a mile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Yes, he has used this race before heading down under. I would have thought that a solid finishing gallop or placing would be sufficient for the green light. Get that ante on Hamish,Stodge!😁. I'm hoping DW starts today Mardi. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said: Yes, he has used this race before heading down under. I would have thought that a solid finishing gallop or placing would be sufficient for the green light. Get that ante on Hamish,Stodge!😁. I'm hoping DW starts today Mardi. Looks like starting today - past finalise time - and still in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 2, 2021 Share Posted September 2, 2021 Obviously nothing majorly wrong with DW was hoping he was scratched today and running tomorrow, I thought they would run today with J Mac up, the race today looks weaker, I’m expecting him to finish somewhere near top 3 in this line up, the 1600 tomorrow I thought would’ve been a good starting option first up in a much tougher race and just finishing off, these English stayers however are used to starting their preps over these distances and longer……good 4 bring it on!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 2, 2021 Author Share Posted September 2, 2021 @VC! I see your mate Finche has been retired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 Of all the horses running tomorrow, I'm most looking forward to seeing Port Guillaume and the hungarian goulash - Nancho. Both having not raced for some time coming over pre last years cups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, mardigras said: @VC! I see your mate Finche has been retired. Just lacked that turn of foot at the furlong I’m really waiting on the weights to be released, in regards to backing Incentivise, he resumes in the Makybe Diva Edited September 3, 2021 by VC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigos1 Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 3 hours ago, mardigras said: Of all the horses running tomorrow, I'm most looking forward to seeing Port Guillaume and the hungarian goulash - Nancho. Both having not raced for some time coming over pre last years cups. I too am interested how Nancho runs tomorrow. Does seem to have a nice turn of foot (shown winning this Grp 1 in Munich). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 DW was a surprising favourite to me. Went OK, I wouldn't write him off yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 15 minutes ago, mardigras said: DW was a surprising favourite to me. Went OK, I wouldn't write him off yet. Initially I was a little disappointed with the run, However I don’t think a track like Wyong suits, DW looks very dour to me, went back to near last at the 200 before grinding home again What weight would you expect Verry Elleegant to get in the MC? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 I'd expect her to get 57.5 - 58. Maybe 58 equal with Sir Dragonet (They have to set a minimum top weight of 58kg at declaration of weights). I can't see anything else getting above them except Gold Trip. Twilight Payment and Gold Trip maybe down 0.5 and Spanish Mission in my view should be getting 0.5 - 1.0 from those I have at the top. But I'm not a Carpenter fan, so you never know with him. And he has a habit of favouring some. So wouldn't be surprised to see Gold Trip at the top. Unless I've missed something - who are you expecting to head the weights? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 I think Sir Dragonet is topweight. Verry Ellegant, Gold Trip, Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission all 57.5 as you suggest although I think Verry Elleegant should only get 57 but won't. That said, as you also suggest, it's a bit hard to know what Carpenter might do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 I thought the run of VE was top notch last year and was keen to back her especially at 40s, initially they said last year she was off to France for the PDT, however with COVID those plans were abandoned, they have booked Mark Zahra for her spring campaign, her owner Brae Sokolski has stated VE would have another crack at the cup depending on what weight she is given I don’t think they will run her with 57kgs + she only carried 55.5 last year, I know the depth isn’t there with a horse like AVD, I will need to wait for weights before investing I expect Sir Dragonet to get 58 he trialled nicely Monday I prefer SD in the CP and CC rather than MC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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