mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, VC! said: I thought the run of VE was top notch last year and was keen to back her especially at 40s, initially they said last year she was off to France for the PDT, however with COVID those plans were abandoned, they have booked Mark Zahra for her spring campaign, her owner Brae Sokolski has stated VE would have another crack at the cup depending on what weight she is given I don’t think they will run her with 57kgs + she only carried 55.5 last year, I know the depth isn’t there with a horse like AVD, I will need to wait for weights before investing I expect Sir Dragonet to get 58 he trialled nicely Monday I prefer SD in the CP and CC rather than MC Mark won't be riding her - he was one to be banned - unless that has been overturned. I doubt she will run even though they have said they want to - subject to what weight she gets. A ploy I would say to pressure Carpenter from giving her a higher weight. I can't see her getting less than 57.5. She carried 55.5 last year with no rehandicap for the CC win. She was weighted as a 116/117 horse last year. She is now a 122, with 2 G1 wins and 2 G1 seconds since the cup. It is handicap racing - there should be no favours. She can likely carry the weight (she's won 3 G1s at 57kg) The only time Sir Dragonet has beaten her was in the cup last year (just finishing ahead of her) at the same weight. She has done significantly more since than he has - yet we seem to be saying he will be topweight. She already gets the mares allowance - throwing her in is not something I am a fan of. If she gets less than 57.5, it'll be typical Carpenter bias. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 True I forgot Zahra was banned and you’re right it’s a ploy to try and get in with a lighter weight, it will be interesting to see what Peter Moody’s new charge gets, the hype horse, one never knows with Carpenter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 Just now, VC! said: True I forgot Zahra was banned and you’re right it’s a ploy to try and get in with a lighter weight, it will be interesting to see what Peter Moody’s new charge gets, the hype horse, one never knows with Carpenter In past years I would have thought 51. This year because of hype, probably 52.5 (imo) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 22 hours ago, mardigras said: If he starts today in the Wyong Gold Cup - he is currently around equal favourite - so will give an indication as to where he's at fitness wise. Or will they wait until tomorrow for a harder task over a mile. Made a point of watching the Wyong Gold Cup ...and if that run from Dashing Willoughby was an indication of its class and fitness it should be renamed Crashing Wannabe. IMO just another overrated import, attracting too much attention from the media and everyone's 'afraid' of it in case it's the real deal. MM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Maximus said: Made a point of watching the Wyong Gold Cup ...and if that run from Dashing Willoughby was an indication of its class and fitness it should be renamed Crashing Wannabe. IMO just another overrated import, attracting too much attention from the media and everyone's 'afraid' of it in case it's the real deal. MM Thought it was a pretty good run myself - haven't assessed it properly. Better than I was expecting. And even though it's not how I assess horses, it beat the current Melbourne Cup favourite middle of last year and thrashed the past Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter (who was the favorite). His time has him in the fastest 30 performances on that track over 2100m. The winner ran the 4th fastest time I have on record. It was a hot pace. I'm not backing him, but he goes OK. Edited September 3, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 A couple of old friends in that Wyong Cup - MOHICAN HEIGHTS, who was down the field in the Derby and Leger last year and ALAKAHAN, who raced in Ireland as a younger horse. The winner raced in France as a younger horse and the third was a handicapper in the UK. Interesting piece in the Racing Post about exports of horses from the UK to Australia and from Australia to Hong Kong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stodge said: A couple of old friends in that Wyong Cup - MOHICAN HEIGHTS, who was down the field in the Derby and Leger last year and ALAKAHAN, who raced in Ireland as a younger horse. The winner raced in France as a younger horse and the third was a handicapper in the UK. Interesting piece in the Racing Post about exports of horses from the UK to Australia and from Australia to Hong Kong. Thought they both ran well myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 When will the weights be published? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 58 minutes ago, mardigras said: Thought it was a pretty good run myself - haven't assessed it properly. Better than I was expecting. And even though it's not how I assess horses, it beat the current Melbourne Cup favourite middle of last year and thrashed the past Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter (who was the favorite). His time has him in the fastest 30 performances on that track over 2100m. The winner ran the 4th fastest time I have on record. It was a hot pace. I'm not backing him, but he goes OK. Winner and runner-up ran past him like he was standing still. 4th horse had a rating of 70 going into the Cup. Waller is a bmagician but unless there's some physiological damage or 'issue' from the race, DW would have to improve many lengths to win a Caulfield or Melb Cup. Last of 18 in the CC, almost last in the MC last year. Should be at 200-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Maximus said: Winner and runner-up ran past him like he was standing still. 4th horse had a rating of 70 going into the Cup. Waller is a bmagician but unless there's some physiological damage or 'issue' from the race, DW would have to improve many lengths to win a Caulfield or Melb Cup. Last of 18 in the CC, almost last in the MC last year. Should be at 200-1 You do form a lot different to me. I wouldn't know how many lengths he would have to improve. He has never performed well in any race that short. When he's placed in the UK in non-staying races, they've been very poor performances. As I say, in my view, he probably ran a couple of seconds faster than I was expecting. So if no issues, he would be on track for something longer. I didn't give him a shit show in that race. As per my pricing. Do you remember a horse called Almandin? Ran last over 2000m at Flemington (at 5s) - 4 starts later won the cup. As I also said, I am not backing him, but I'd back him before backing Rodrigo Diaz. Edited September 3, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 And in that race, performance wise, I like Mohican Heights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 cheers mate, the 'many lengths' was a general comment. If he'd been finishing the race off nicely I'd be more complimentary and encouraged by the run, esp with Melb Cup in mind. There seems to have been a lot of hype about him as a a result of winning one trial this prep. NZ bookies have him at $34, while The Chosen One (4th last year) is at 70-1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 3, 2021 Author Share Posted September 3, 2021 I agree re the hype. Clearly still has to deliver on the track this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 I saw the race as a strong 2100m trial for DW. Only a couple of 1000m trials before this fresh up run. J Mc pushed him along before the turn, but hardly moved down the straight. Where to next?Maybe The Metro or a 2000m run if he stays in NSW. My thoughts of his last prep are in a earlier post, and I wouldn't write him off just yet. That Sandown Park win keeps coming back to me,as does Baldings wrap on him. I didn't get as much as VC, but happy with my 20 quid ! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted September 3, 2021 Share Posted September 3, 2021 35 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said: I saw the race as a strong 2100m trial for DW. Only a couple of 1000m trials before this fresh up run. J Mc pushed him along before the turn, but hardly moved down the straight. Where to next?Maybe The Metro or a 2000m run if he stays in NSW. My thoughts of his last prep are in a earlier post, and I wouldn't write him off just yet. That Sandown Park win keeps coming back to me,as does Baldings wrap on him. I didn't get as much as VC, but happy with my 20 quid ! I had to open an account in my son’s name to get 200-1 which probably looks unders now, I can probably live with the $36 loss (maybe) it’s just one of 5 horses I will back to win the cup and everyone will be around the 7-10k return however J Mac’s comments were pretty much how I seen it Dashing Willoughby – Raced keenly in the early stages. When questioned, rider J McDonald reported that he was satisfied with the performance of the gelding and added that Dashing Willoughby is one-paced and would be better suited on a bigger track. A post-race veterinary examination did not reveal any abnormalities 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 21 hours ago, Stodge said: When will the weights be published? A bit vague - under the rules "not later than the 13th September" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 (edited) Prince Of Arran not heading down - retired after running today. I understand the RV vets failed him for Melbourne as well - which looks to be part of the decision. Edited September 4, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 On 9/3/2021 at 7:17 AM, Stodge said: PRINCE OF ARRAN runs at Kempton on Saturday in the September Stakes over 2400m on the Polytrack. He's outsider of five in a race headed by HUKUM - there's an interesting runner called HAMISH who is second fav. Worth noting back in 2019 he got to within a length and a half of AWAY HE GOES one day. I know he's not in the field this year but I just wonder if they might be plotting a 2022 Melbourne Cup run with this one. Hamish did the job there Stodge. Could he head South next year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 4, 2021 Author Share Posted September 4, 2021 (edited) Horses I'm not expecting to pay up for the cups Tuesday (along with many others) Il Paradiso Sonnyboyliston?? Lone Eagle Stratum Albion Save A Forest Mirann Benaud Eagles By Day Schabau Pale King South Pacific Bucharest Dadoozdart Django Freeman Favreau Surf Dance Wolfe Glycon Caulfield Cup (as well as above, these may pay up - but I'm not expecting them to start) Gold Trip Mounga And of course Prince Of Arran. Edited September 4, 2021 by mardigras Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 On 9/4/2021 at 6:59 PM, mardigras said: Hamish did the job there Stodge. Could he head South next year? I think he'd be an ideal candidate for the Melbourne Cup but he's obviously had issues. He's a similar horse to FIORENTE who won the race in 2013 and is on the same UK rating, 108, as that one was and also comes off a decent run in the Hardwicke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 Here's the update from my list. Pretty close to spot on. From earlier.. Horses I'm not expecting to pay up for the cups Tuesday Il Paradiso (out) Sonnyboyliston?? (in) Lone Eagle (out) Stratum Albion (out) Save A Forest (out) Mirann (out) Benaud (out) Eagles By Day (out) Schabau (out) Pale King (out) South Pacific (out) Bucharest (out) Dadoozdart (out) Django Freeman (out) Favreau (out) Surf Dance Out) Wolfe (out) Glycon (out) Caulfield Cup (as well as above, these may pay up - but I'm not expecting them to start) Gold Trip (out) Mounga (in) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curious Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Bit of pocket money there if you were laying those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardigras Posted September 7, 2021 Author Share Posted September 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, curious said: Bit of pocket money there if you were laying those. Il Paradiso was the main one still being taken quite well. I was 99% sure he was out. And he was trading at 40s - 50s the last two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stodge Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/spanish-mission-leads-the-charge-for-spring-carnival-international-runners/509423 Six European horses left in the Melbourne Cup. SPANISH MISSION TWILIGHT PAYMENT MASTER OF REALITY AWAY HE GOES RODRIGO DIAZ SONNYBOYLISTON TWILIGHT PAYMENT, SONNYBOYLISTON and MASTER OF REALITY are all in the Irish Leger on Sunday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Caller Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Stodge said: https://www.racingpost.com/news/international/spanish-mission-leads-the-charge-for-spring-carnival-international-runners/509423 Six European horses left in the Melbourne Cup. SPANISH MISSION TWILIGHT PAYMENT MASTER OF REALITY AWAY HE GOES RODRIGO DIAZ SONNYBOYLISTON TWILIGHT PAYMENT, SONNYBOYLISTON and MASTER OF REALITY are all in the Irish Leger on Sunday. Thanks Stodge, interesting to see how Sonny goes on Sunday for crafty Willie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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