Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup 2021

[mardigras]

15 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said:

Thanks Stodge, interesting  to see how Sonny goes on Sunday for crafty Willie!

Willie - he changed hands MC?

On a side note, I'm not 100% sure he will come to Melbourne. I have him in the highly unlikely category. Just rumours, but I think there is a view he wouldn't pass the vet tests, and I'm not sure Murtagh wants to bring him out (as getting staff out is also a problem)

[curious]

1 hour ago, Midnight Caller said:

Thanks Stodge, interesting  to see how Sonny goes on Sunday for crafty Willie!

Not coming according to Murtagh.

[Midnight Caller]

7 hours ago, mardigras said:

Willie - he changed hands MC?

On a side note, I'm not 100% sure he will come to Melbourne. I have him in the highly unlikely category. Just rumours, but I think there is a view he wouldn't pass the vet tests, and I'm not sure Murtagh wants to bring him out (as getting staff out is also a problem)

Too much sun yesterday Mardi! Murtagh is correct. Probably enough races for him at home.

[mardigras]

Cup nom, Rodrigo Diaz ran overnight against Stradivarius - a cake walk for Stradivarius. Rodrigo Diaz struggled to run fast enough to get warm.

Edited September 10, 2021 by mardigras

[Stodge]

STRADIVARIUS was very good, wasn't he? 

I do wonder if yesterday's Park Hill winner, FREE BIRD, might give him some problems.

Sunday has TWILIGHT PAYMENT in the Irish Leger - he's favourite over SONNYBOYLISTON but I fancy BARON SAMEDI to beat them both.

MASTER OF REALITY also in the field.

[mardigras]

Sir Lucan never in the St Leger - will he still head over after struggling with the distance?

Incentivise - won OK. Just an average performance for me. He set it up for himself well. I think I'll continue laying him at my peril. He'll have no trouble making the field weight wise after winning a G1 pre weights. Might get 55 - 56 (or more).

Caulfield Cup - I like Colette at this stage if she goes there.

[mardigras]

Sonnyboyliston wins the Irish St Leger - from Twilight Payment. Master Of Reality was eased out of the race when not going to figure.

The only way the winner is coming to Oz this year is if someone buys him to bring him, from what Murtagh has been saying. Be an expensive buy and would have to pass the scans.

[mardigras]

Amazing - the NZ TAB Melbourne Cup market is at 103% - for the top 18 runners. 122% for 24 runners. Don't worry about the other 100 current entries.

That is not bookmaking. They should all be given a red card and get some people off the streets - you couldn't do worse.

No wonder they make such a pittance. You make money bookmaking by taking risks and managing them. Their market has next to no risk in it.

[Midnight Caller]

I'm  giving you a  yellow card Mardi, for calling them bookmakers!😁

[mardigras]

1 minute ago, Midnight Caller said:

I'm  giving you a  yellow card Mardi, for calling them bookmakers!😁

🙂 yep, good one MC, but tbf, I don't think I called them bookmakers - just people trying to do bookmaking. NZ TAB have a bunch of those people trying to do that.

[Midnight Caller]

5 minutes ago, mardigras said:

🙂 yep, good one MC, but tbf, I don't think I called them bookmakers - just people trying to do bookmaking. NZ TAB have a bunch of those people trying to do that.

True, true  and true!

Agree they should open the book on all entries.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Midnight Caller

[mardigras]

11 minutes ago, Midnight Caller said:

True, true  and true!

Agree they should open the book on all entries.

They have - but the total market % is a staggering 213%. Whatever betting they are doing, they would take a heck of a lot more if that was in the 140- 150% range. Because prices would be more enticing - but only 24 of them can still start.

[mardigras]

Dashing Willoughby holds a nom for the Newcastle Gold Cup - Friday.

This should provide a better indicator as to where he is at getting up to a decent trip.

[VC!]

DW also a norm for the Kingston town over 2000 m on Saturday at Randwick track currently a heavy eight at Newcastle

I hope they go to Newcastle.

Just watched the replay of the Makybe Diva I think the one you mentioned, Colette would be a serious chance if they decide to run her in the Caulfield Cup She ran the fastest last 200 of that race  still at a reasonable price no knock from me on Incentivise he rated 103 on Saturday I haven’t backed him in either cups as he is too short, thought Keiai Nautique was good through the line nominated for the Epsom and Cox Plate not sure if I could back him in those races.

Explosive Jack was good late he trialed with Sir Dragonet and Incentivise and didn’t look as forward  as the other two, so I’m thinking the Melbourne Cup could be his go, although he should come on leaps and bounds after that run and has a good 2400 record

[Maximus]

IMO Colette is a much better horse on wet tracks. Thought Sir Dragonet's run in the Makybe Diva was impressive, on track to repeat Cox Plate esp if rain-affected going.

[mardigras]

Here are the weights.

On 9/3/2021 at 7:28 PM, mardigras said:

I'd expect her to get 57.5 - 58. Maybe 58 equal with Sir Dragonet (They have to set a minimum top weight of 58kg at declaration of weights). I can't see anything else getting above them except Gold Trip. Twilight Payment and Gold Trip maybe down 0.5 and Spanish Mission in my view should be getting 0.5 - 1.0 from those I have at the top. But I'm not a Carpenter fan, so you never know with him. And he has a habit of favouring some. So wouldn't be surprised to see Gold Trip at the top.

Unless I've missed something - who are you expecting to head the weights?

 

On 9/3/2021 at 7:40 PM, curious said:

I think Sir Dragonet is topweight. Verry Ellegant, Gold Trip, Twilight Payment and Spanish Mission all 57.5 as you suggest although I think Verry Elleegant should only get 57 but won't. That said, as you also suggest, it's a bit hard to know what Carpenter might do.

Top are equal Twilight Payment and Sonnyboyliston on 58 (Sonnyboyliston would have gone up after winning the G1 on Sunday, beating twilight Payment).

Then Sir Dragonet 57.5

Then a group of 3, Gold Trip, Spanish Mission and Verry Elleegant at 57.

So I think we were pretty close to the mark. Possibly Gold Trip getting in well along with Verry Elleegant - not that I think the weight is important - more that some of the connections will. I think VE is pretty lucky to get in with only 57 - probably to try and appease the connections.

(Incentivise gets in next at 55.5)

The top 5 (plus the new one (Sonnyboyliston)), looked very likely to be up the top.

[VC!]

27 minutes ago, Maximus said:

IMO Colette is a much better horse on wet tracks. Thought Sir Dragonet's run in the Makybe Diva was impressive, on track to repeat Cox Plate esp if rain-affected going.

I tend to agree, she has an excellent record on rain affected tracks, and Sir Dragonet, loomed if he was going to win, maybe peaked late, he looks on track for another CP tilt

[curious]

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Here are the weights.

 

Top are equal Twilight Payment and Sonnyboyliston on 58 (Sonnyboyliston would have gone up after winning the G1 on Sunday, beating twilight Payment).

Then Sir Dragonet 57.5

Then a group of 3, Gold Trip, Spanish Mission and Verry Elleegant at 57.

So I think we were pretty close to the mark. Possibly Gold Trip getting in well along with Verry Elleegant - not that I think the weight is important - more that some of the connections will. I think VE is pretty lucky to get in with only 57 - probably to try and appease the connections.

(Incentivise gets in next at 55.5)

The top 5 (plus the new one (Sonnyboyliston)), looked very likely to be up the top.

Nothing too surprising there I agree. If anything Twilight Payment maybe gets a bit more than I expected.

[Globederby19]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I hear a movement to start a Race in Sydney that equals the Melbourne Cup Prestige because it has lost its mojo and become just another European benefit race with has beens and wanna be,s turning up and breaking down. Open to Australian and Kiwi horses only. About bloody time .

You heard it here first. 

[mardigras]

4 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but I hear a movement to start a Race in Sydney that equals the Melbourne Cup Prestige because it has lost its mojo and become just another European benefit race with has beens and wanna be,s turning up and breaking down. Open to Australian and Kiwi horses only. About bloody time .

You heard it here first. 

imo, you can't just manufacture prestige. Take the Everest as an example, I've not watched one yet. Doesn't interest me.

The cup (again imo), is massively better since the europeans started coming. It used to be a race for has been's and wanna be's. The difference being they were just NZ/Oz ones.

Oz don't have a breeding program for producing stayers, NZ did, but not so much as they follow the money and oz has the money.

If you picked the absolute best NZ/Oz stayers that didn't originate in the SH, you'd have a field similar to the Auckland cup. And about as much interest. 

This years race has lost appeal for me - since there will be only 3 trained in the NH, although probably still 16+ will be NH bred. For me, the ones coming in added interest and intrigue. Now, it will be like a maiden high-weight at Te Aroha.

[Hesi]

33 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but I hear a movement to start a Race in Sydney that equals the Melbourne Cup Prestige because it has lost its mojo and become just another European benefit race with has beens and wanna be,s turning up and breaking down. Open to Australian and Kiwi horses only. About bloody time .

You heard it here first. 

Have the mob that screwed the Boxing Day/NYD carnival at Auckland, moved to Sydney

Now we have something that is a non event 

 

[Globederby19]

36 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Oz don't have a breeding program for producing stayers

Correct, then why have a bloody race that only favours NH horses. It would be like the Elitloppet full of NZ trotters . Frankly I find it a waste of time nowadays . But then i have rose tinted harness glasses

[mardigras]

9 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Correct, then why have a bloody race that only favours NH horses. It would be like the Elitloppet full of NZ trotters . Frankly I find it a waste of time nowadays . But then i have rose tinted harness glasses

Ask the breeders. The cup was around long before the breeders decided they wanted a get rich quick program.

[Globederby19]

7 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Ask the breeders. The cup was around long before the breeders decided they wanted a get rich quick program.

Yeah, I know speed kills and makes quick money.

[Maximus]

Max is an advocate for a new prestigious stayers race - hcp conditions - for Oz/Kiwi-breds only. Perhaps call it the Australasian Breeders (Cup or woteva) or ANZAC Cup.  Could it be races during the Championships or better as a Spring/Summer feature? You could even have a qualifying series a la Dunstan, maybe even have the Dunstan Final winner/placegetters getting automatic entries into the Oz race...

MM