NZ CUP - Road to the Cup

[Happy Sunrise]

2 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

This is the key to the race , will they work togeather a little to beat Mark and Nat when they circle round.

One won't sacrifice itself for the other.

By the way, the TAB think it is next Wednesday the Cup is on. 

[karrotsishere]

Im with Lightning on this. Handicap for Self Assure being behind them no early lead for him. Can see Copy That and top driver B Orange, ploughing forth & going for the lead - YES TEAM OTHERS & TEAM NORTH away & racing.

Can see Pembroke P or Classie B hand up to Copy That after 200 metres. And Copy That being infront of Self A, SCA & Laver so will get to take over lead 1st.

Then be a matter if they can run him down. 

Edited November 3, 2021 by karrotsishere
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[Happy Sunrise]

Terry, a 5 win horse rated 75.

Steel The Show, a 5 win horse rated 72.

Laver, a 6 win horse rated 74.

All in the Cup and here was me saying it was a deep field earlier.

[Lightning Blue]

2 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Im with Lightning on this. Handicap for Self Assure being behind them no early lead for him. Can see Copy That and top driver B Orange, ploughing forth & going for the lead - YES TEAM OTHERS & TEAM NORTH away & racing.

Can see Pembroke P or Classie B hand up to Copy That after 200 metres. And Copy That being infront of Self A, SCA & Laver so will get to take over lead 1st.

Then be a matter if they can run him down. 

That would be great Karrots. COPY THAT involved early, deserving a bit better luck than the last NZ Cup with bad gettaway, and then the 3200m Auckland Cup New-years Eve , he sat parked out without cover, against the 'ALLstars train' for the last lap and stuck on well for third to Amazing Dream. She's not here now, so is he the Winner????

[Happy Sunrise]

11 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

One won't sacrifice itself for the other.

By the way, the TAB think it is next Wednesday the Cup is on. 

Hope no one notices because I am going to hit the winner after the race on Tuesday and make a killing on Wednesday 😂

[karrotsishere]

Remember last year Happy, I had just joined other site & you started a thread on NZ Cup maybe a week or few days out, & it was about what going to happen at the start, what is your scenario. I was the 1st to jump on in & put forth my scenario.

Think it was JJ that nailed it tho lol.

So who else has their scenario? Happy, Lightning & mwah self has put forth ours. 

[Happy Sunrise]

27 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Think it was JJ that nailed it tho lol.

Thought he only nailed Brodie and the Chief lol.

[Happy Sunrise]

28 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Remember last year Happy, I had just joined other site & you started a thread on NZ Cup maybe a week or few days out, & it was about what going to happen at the start, what is your scenario. I was the 1st to jump on in & put forth my scenario.

I still remember being a little sharp (and rude) in a reply to you too at the beginning of your time on that site. My apology continues.

In my defence, I was frazzled by the crap going on and not trusting new posters as I thought they were existing ones with double identities.

 

 

[karrotsishere]

22 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Thought he only nailed Brodie and the Chief lol.

Woah the sic burn there Happy, didnt see that coming. The young fellas are on fire tonight 🔥 get the fire truck 🚒

18 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

I still remember being a little sharp (and rude) in a reply to you too at the beginning of your time on that site. My apology continues.

Yea me too. But already accepted an apology remember & moved on. Recall Hunter PM-ing me straight after, saying Happy is a bit grumpy BUT he is alright lol. - I was like ahh yeah lol. 

19 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

In my defence, I was frazzled by the crap going on and not trusting new posters as I thought they were existing ones with double identities.

It really was like being in the middle of the online reality Harness racing show. One didn't know what would happen next. Mike was right in the middle of the argument siding with Mardigas, but he can't recall 🤔🤷‍♂️ - I can recall it quite clearly.

[Double R]

22 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Woah the sic burn there Happy, didnt see that coming. The young fellas are on fire tonight 🔥 get the fire truck 🚒

Yea me too. But already accepted an apology remember & moved on. Recall Hunter PM-ing me straight after, saying Happy is a bit grumpy BUT he is alright lol. - I was like ahh yeah lol. 

It really was like being in the middle of the online reality Harness racing show. One didn't know what would happen next. Mike was right in the middle of the argument siding with Mardigas, but he can't recall 🤔🤷‍♂️ - I can recall it quite clearly.

Sounds like this site might be too quiet for both them????

In all seriousness, I think you would seen that this is a very honest ,and open site, and most are willing to listen to others opinions.

[Happy Sunrise]

5 minutes ago, Double R said:

Sounds like this site might be too quiet for both them????

It might seem quieter but if you take out the people with multiple user names and the repetition, it is probably the same. 

I have learnt on here that it is not necessary for a site to be 'buzzing' all the time.  

[Hesi]

And don't get your hopes up about Brodie joining this site.........pheeew they all say.

 

[karrotsishere]

3 minutes ago, Hesi said:

pheeew they all say.

That is what Royal Nod & Mike are saying.

Anyways time to log off, too much laughing for 1 evening.

[Happy Sunrise]

15 minutes ago, Hesi said:

And don't get your hopes up about Brodie joining this site.........pheeew they all say.

 

But I need a tip....

[Hesi]

32 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

But I need a tip....

Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup

[Happy Sunrise]

2 observations about the odds for the Cup

Bad to the Bone 51ff V Copy That 4.50ff

Similar draws in the Cup. Copy That beats Bad to the Bone after a better run first up then Bad to the Bone beats Copy That, albeit with a 10m start, in the second meeting. Then Bad to the Bone runs just ok in Kaikoura Cup. 

So, which one is wrong? The 51 for BTTB or the 4.50 for CT. How can they be so far apart? One could argue BTTB has better race day fitness. Why the love for Copy That suddenly?

Classie Brigade 7.50ff V Henry Hubert 31ff

A few starts ago Henry was the new kid on the block for the Dunn Stable and Classie Brigade seemed on the wane but things have changed. Obviously, CB has reinvigorated himself but Henry went a bold race in the Kaikoura Cup. Henry is off the unruly and nicely drawn wider on the front row ready for a walking start... Who is the better value?

Edited November 3, 2021 by Happy Sunrise

[Happy Sunrise]

Just now, Hesi said:

Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup

You are like the TAB with the date for the NZ Trotting Cup. A day flippin late!

[Hesi]

I thought you guys would be used to it, coming from a site where the tips are given out after the race lol

[Rusty]

8 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Here is the draw.

What the f@*$€n hell is the draw doing, coming out of a Commodore 64 computer?!

Oh wait, is that Addington? Yip. Ok cool. Understood. 

[Lightning Blue]

3 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Classie Brigade 7.50ff V Henry Hubert 31ff

A few starts ago Henry was the new kid on the block for the Dunn Stable and Classie Brigade seemed on the wane but things have changed.

Henry is missing away a little from the stands lately. He did finish a solid finishing 4th last years Cup about 3 lengths ahead of Classie Brigade, but well behind the three Allstars horses trifecta. 

You can't afford to hop, skip and jump before pacing,  at the 3.55-3.57 speed they go in the Cup these days. 

Classie Brigade with the brilliant standing start manners seems a better bet.

[Lightning Blue]

3 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Bad to the Bone 51ff V Copy That 4.50

Bad to The Bone was about 7 lengths behind Copy That in 3200m Auckland Cup so seems about right.

What odds do you think they should give in the Cup next week Happy? (or anyone) No odds up here on TAB. although they do have the DOMINION market up today Qld,  with SundeesSon $1.80 and MuscleMountain $3.20. 

I guess they don't know what to do with the Nz Cup field lol... or want nothing to do with it.

Lightning Blue market would be : 

SELF ASSURED @ even money ,   ClassieBrigade + Copy That both 5-1,    PembrookPlayboy + SCArden both 10-1

HenryHubert + Laver + Terry all at 30-1   , the other 7 all 100-1+

 

[Double R]

12 hours ago, Happy Sunrise said:

2 observations about the odds for the Cup

Bad to the Bone 51ff V Copy That 4.50ff

Similar draws in the Cup. Copy That beats Bad to the Bone after a better run first up then Bad to the Bone beats Copy That, albeit with a 10m start, in the second meeting. Then Bad to the Bone runs just ok in Kaikoura Cup. 

So, which one is wrong? The 51 for BTTB or the 4.50 for CT. How can they be so far apart? One could argue BTTB has better race day fitness. Why the love for Copy That suddenly?

Classie Brigade 7.50ff V Henry Hubert 31ff

A few starts ago Henry was the new kid on the block for the Dunn Stable and Classie Brigade seemed on the wane but things have changed. Obviously, CB has reinvigorated himself but Henry went a bold race in the Kaikoura Cup. Henry is off the unruly and nicely drawn wider on the front row ready for a walking start... Who is the better value?

Hi Happy,

I guess we all assess fields with a different formula, and thought process. Some like to compare results from the big races last year, but I know I would rather do my assessments on current form. The only glitch in Bad To The Bone's form was on Monday in the Kaikoura Cup, in which he had no luck, getting pushing back by the weakening Krug at the 500 metres, and his chances were extinguished then.

I agree with you regarding the odds between Bad To The Bone, and Copy.That is so big. Hey, that can work into the favour of punters that want to take Bad To The Bone.

Cheers.

Robert.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Double R

[karrotsishere]

Copy Thats connections are happy as per link to article.

On a different note - feel Pembroke Playboy with a safe beginning will get his trail, IF he only hands up to Copy That & holds Classie B out. Handing up to anything else in my opinion is TOO risky that they will hand again. What will happen? 

https://www.lincolnfarms.co.nz/stories/merv-rapt-with-copy-thats-trotting-cup-draw-with-main-rivals-out-the-back-on-tuesday/

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by karrotsishere

[Rusty]

3 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Handing up to anything else in my opinion is TOO risky that they will hand again.

Or do the ole hand up to something that is dead set wanting the lead at all costs (more likely just wanting to find the marker pegs, than the actual lead), to then immediately go around that horse, and take the lead again. This scenario often plays out at the start of a race, my man B Orange is a master of it. 

[Lightning Blue]

3 hours ago, Double R said:

I guess we all assess fields with a different formula, and thought process. Some like to compare results from the big races last year, but I know I would rather do my assessments on current form.

Sorry to butt in your comment to Happy S. I think my reasoning is sound. There are not that many 3200m races year to year. I guess the Easter Cup still may be as well. And the OPEN Class horses seem to Overall hold their form year to year , because they are the good ones. ALL Oz and NZ 'top' horses through the years , were great through their whole career.

Verry Elleegant I backed last Tuesday in MC , mainly based on her HUGE run (7th) in last years Melbourne Cup , at track and distance. 

That paid off well. thankfully.

With NZ Cup SELF ASSURED , this time last year , was Sensational in 3.55.2 . very quick, very good, and seems to be going well lately too if you like current form. (I'm still taking 9-1 Sportsbet on the coming Interdominion, very nice !!!! )