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Weigh In 25 Oct 2021


Hesi

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5 hours ago, curious said:

The misinformation is coming from both directions. That includes GPs, family doctors, politicians etc. Independent research is the best imo and unfortunately there are no clear answers. I agree with barryb ... I think vaccination should be entirely voluntary with informed consent of the risks and benefits as more information about their efficacy and side effects come to hand. The polarised positions have no grounds either way and are damaging families, workplaces, communities etc.

The subtle agenda suggesting that the vaccinated are at more risk from the unvaccinated than from the vaccinated is bereft of evidence. Both the MoH and Medsafe are clear that they have no evidence (yet) that vaccination reduces transmissability of Delta let alone any future variants. Final comments from Justice  Cooke when the High Court case wound up on Friday suggest that a decision against the "no jab, no job" position is likely. "The judge said the key question might be whether the vaccination order for people in certain positions reduced the risk of the virus spreading, which could justify the limit on personal freedom."

The data in NZ shows that infections are heavily weighted towards unvaccinated/single jabbed people.

See also US data below

Therefore it is a numbers game, the vaccinated are more at risk from the unvaccinated, because, in a population, they are many more times likely to be carrying the virus than the vaccinated

So the 10% or so in NZ that will not get vaccinated are more likely to become as a group, people who cause breakthrough cases in the vaccinated, because they are more likely to be infected, the data shows that

The only things that are unknown are

1.  The efficacy of the vaccine in populations, therefore the % of breakthrough infections

2.  The vaccine's effect on transmissibility 

 

 

How Rates of New Covid-19 Hospital Admissions and Deaths Compare

Among fully vaccinated people and among people who were not fully vaccinated in each state since vaccination began.

  HOSPITALIZATION RATE PER 100,000   DEATH RATE PER 100,000  
STATE FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE   FOR VACCINATED PEOPLE FOR UNVACCINATED PEOPLE  
Alabama 9 696 75x higher for unvaccinated people 3 124 48x higher for unvaccinated people
Alaska 9 154 17x 1 11 10x
Arizona 27 1,306 47x 2 182 73x
California 9 647 68x 1 58 58x
Colorado 24 567 22x 4 37 8x
Delaware 7 978 148x 2 26 14x
Georgia 5 735 161x 1 99 87x
Idaho 11 288 25x 2 30 16x
Illinois 20 1,001 48x 5 68 11x
Indiana 9 547 57x 4 29 7x
Kentucky 21 893 41x 4 85 23x
Louisiana 12 347 28x 3 54 19x
Maine 6 571 91x 3 24 7x
Massachusetts 15 615 39x 4 87 22x
Michigan 24 693 28x 9 87 8x
Minnesota 40 465 11x 6 71 11x
Mississippi 17 702 40x 4 127 28x
Montana 11 472 43x 2 42 16x
Nebraska 13 458 35x 3 48 16x
Nevada 35 1,182 33x 6 98 15x
New Hampshire 5 454 88x 2 37 15x
New Jersey 7 948 126x 2 96 50x
New Mexico 22 535 24x 1 37 25x
North Carolina 17 816 47x 3 80 24x
North Dakota 37 720 19x 8 47 5x
Ohio 8 1,041 135x 1 76 59x
Oklahoma 16 1,116 70x 2 158 68x
Oregon 21 512 23x 3 32 8x
Rhode Island 63 468 6x 4 98 22x
South Carolina 12 322 26x 3 39 13x
South Dakota 30 515 16x 6 74 11x
Tennessee 17 613 36x 2 105 44x
Texas 4 735 185x 0.7 61 85x
Utah 33 205 5x 1 15 12x
Vermont 8 468 61x 3 24 7x
Virginia 6 906 155x 2 41 23x
Washington 12 606 50x 2 34 13x
Washington, D.C. 7 3,326 448x 2 55 23x
Wisconsin 20 652 32x 2 30 13x

 

Sources: State health departments (breakthrough hospitalizations, breakthrough deaths and some total deaths), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (hospitalizations), New York Times database of cases and deaths (some deaths)

 

Methodology

The Times asked all 50 states and Washington, D.C., to provide data on breakthrough infections, hospitalizations and deaths of fully vaccinated people, roughly spanning back to the first months of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Many of the states provided data through June or July, which may not account for the recent surge in Delta variant infections. In every state providing information, hospitalizations and deaths among fully vaccinated people accounted for a small minority of the totals.

Forty-four states, plus Washington, D.C., shared some breakthrough hospitalization or death information with The Times, though some provided only two months or less of records. Those states — Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland and Wyoming — were excluded from the analysis. Three additional states — Iowa, Missouri and Pennsylvania — said they were unable to provide data on breakthroughs because their own systems did not effectively track them. Florida, Kansas and New York did not provide any data on breakthrough hospitalizations or deaths.

The states define breakthrough cases in different ways and provided data for different periods, so exercise caution when making comparisons. Some count fully vaccinated people who tested positive for the virus, even if they had no symptoms, while others do not. Some considered a case a breakthrough only if the person had been fully vaccinated for 14 days or more. Some states said that they did not know the hospitalization status of all of their breakthrough infections or that they only received data from a subset of hospitals. Some states said their breakthrough data was preliminary and subject to change.

Some hospitalizations and death records lacked vaccine status altogether. Data for individuals who were not fully vaccinated includes partially vaccinated people, unvaccinated people, and people with unknown vaccination status.

The Times used data reported by hospitals to the Department of Health and Human Services for new Covid-19 hospital admissions to calculate total hospitalizations in each state across the same time period, as well as to calculate the number of hospitalized people in each state who were not fully vaccinated. The data can overestimate the amount of people hospitalized if the same person is admitted to a hospital multiple times, and the data can lag. The Times counted confirmed and probable virus hospitalizations in adults and children. For Rhode Island, the Times used total hospitalization data provided by the state instead of federal data because it was more complete.

The analysis used state data for total Covid-19 deaths when it was possible to do so. If it was not available, The analysis used death data from The New York Times coronavirus database.

The rates for fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated groups were calculated from the average number of people in each group across all days within the period for which data was provided. Because only a total number of breakthrough hospitalizations or deaths for the entire period was available, rates cover different periods for each state. Rate calculations are based on the entire fully vaccinated and not fully vaccinated population, not any measure of who has been exposed to Covid-19.

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Re the US data, I am not arguing that vaccination does not reduce symptoms, severe symtoms, hospitilisations or mortality. I am not aware of any sound data that suggests it reduces infection rates in the vaccinated population though as your people in Wellington would have us believe by the sneaky (or sloppy and misleading) use of language.

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20 minutes ago, curious said:

Where do you get that from? I haven't seen that.

 

2 hours ago, Hesi said:

The data in NZ shows that infections are heavily weighted towards unvaccinated/single jabbed people.

Therefore it is a numbers game, the vaccinated are more at risk from the unvaccinated, because, in a population, they are many more times likely to be carrying the virus than the vaccinated

Your first sentence doesn't necessarily indicate your second sentence.

I would have thought given the limited number of cases in NZ, getting a decent handle on that would be potentially somewhat difficult. Taking into account the communities where it has been a little more spread, and how those communities reflect things like vaccination rates. Some of the communities most affected may have had low rates of vaccination making a judgement more difficult and potentially biased.

Edited by mardigras
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RNZ report 29/9

The Ministry of Health data, current to Monday this week, showed 112 people had been hospitalised in this outbreak, which is about 10 percent of the 1177 community cases since 17 August.

Of the cases, 37 were in fully vaccinated people with only one going to hospital.

Some 974 people without vaccinations, including children under 12 years, have been infected and 93 needed hospital-level care.

Just 3 percent of cases were fully vaccinated when they caught the virus, and less than 1 percent of those who went to hospital.

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Response from Michael Guerin

Hi Alan
 
I really appreciate you thinking of me mate and I'll check it out again for sure but I simply can't join for chats because once I go down the rabbit hole it takes up so much time and I just don't have ant. Often for me now it is SENZ at 8am and still working till midnight. So I  maxxed out
 
But I hope it goers great for you guys and I look forward to reading some of it
 
MG
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6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

974 out of 1177 infected cases  were unvaccinated

37 of 1177 fully vaccinated

That is simply how many cases were a or b, not what the representation of the sample is, that is c or d.

I'll expand, if the sample of households largely involved in the outbreaks, had 90% unvaccinated and 10% vaccinated, then there would be little to conclude the vaccine has prevented infection.

 

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6 minutes ago, Hesi said:

974 out of 1177 infected cases  were unvaccinated

37 of 1177 fully vaccinated

Firstly that's not even a rate. What is the denominator?

Secondly that's detected cases, not the number infected which are probably way higher in the vaccinated because they are far more likely to be asymptomatic, untested and undetected but still out there merrily sharing the virus around.

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24 minutes ago, barryb said:

Even bought myself a big arse wine fridge & its been fun filling it right up.

Been exercising way more, lawns look great, getting shitloads of neglected jobs done around the house, hmmmm maybe lockdown isnt so bad.

see,barryb, Covid has an upside... can Maxi come and visit? Particularly interested in your (full) big-arse fridge.. happy to bring a significant contribution of Moet

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2 hours ago, curious said:

Can't help thinking it's a bit like in racing how strike rate stats are used to mislead punters and distort markets.

 

12 hours ago, Hesi said:

974 out of 1177 infected cases  were unvaccinated

37 of 1177 fully vaccinated

What would Hesi think if 

Barrier <= 16 won 950 races out of 951 races at Doomben over 1350 metres in the last 10 years

Barrier >= 17 won 1 race out of 951 races at Doomben over 1350 metres in the last 10 years.

If only the 6 horses had started from 17+, maybe the barrier isn't an issue.

Edited by mardigras
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This has turned into a political post on Covid (which bores me somewhat)

if it wasnt at the expense of buisness and impeding on peoples freedom of choice and lifestyle then it may

be acceptable. (the traffic light announcment was an insult on peoples intellegence)

I fear Jacinda will achieve her population control, double jab target,followed by booster shots.

They will be easier to convince the population of their safety ...a worrying thought.

Yes, I am double Jabbed,fore-saw the travel restiction thing arrising,  so just gave in. LOL

Just the arranging of crowds at race meetings is my concern AND WHEN ?

again Melbourne will have a huge crowd on-course this weekend, (not dying on the streets)

https://loveracing.nz/RaceInfo/34791/Meeting-News-Article.aspx     

 

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