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W S Cox Plate.....thoughts


Hesi

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For those into stats, here are the runners I have start details of running at Moonee Valley over 2040. I haven't seen too many instances where barrier is a huge issue. Some mught say that the middle barriers are best here. But that would have to be weighted up by an assessment of the horses in those barriers. On those details, on face value, the worst barrier ratio wise is barrier 1. Of the last 14 years, I have only 4 horses to have run from barrier 14 in the Cox Plate. They rarely get a capacity field.

Yes! The above is probably like teaching most here to suck eggs. I realise this is not a research and statistics site, however there are some on these racing social media sites (and in senior governance and management roles in racing) who simply do not grasp those two basic concepts.

The classic primary school level example is that if you are playing roulette and the last 20 spins have been black, what is the chance of the next spin being red? I won't answer that. I know Thommo would get it wrong which is why he keeps failing his remedial maths classes. The other critical point that you make above mardi aside from the population statistic cf individual event one, is that SR is useless information as far as informing the prediction of future results is concerned. It is the SR compared to a decent estimate of predicted strike rate that might be useful. So, as you say, a comparison of the actual SR for each barrier with a reasonable assessment of the likely SR based on the chance of each runner without considering barrier draw.

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6 minutes ago, curious said:

So, as you say, a comparison of the actual SR for each barrier with a reasonable assessment of the likely SR based on the chance of each runner without considering barrier draw.

And that is the difficult part. Performing the assessment ignoring barrier draw. It's like the time when I suggested assessing the chances ignoring weight. And then compare those assessments against the result set. As opposed to assessing the chances including some assessment of the weight. And compare the two result sets. Big issue is time to do so. Coupled with the confidence in how the assessment is done in each case.

Most simply don't have the time or the inclination and will just fall back into what they have done for many years.

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On 10/21/2019 at 8:44 PM, Hesi said:

Against: The fact he is yet to win at Group One level is the knock and he is untested beyond a mile. 

For what it is worth I think TAS will win, and this is born out by a huge wrap from someone in the know up in Cambridge. They think the horse will easily run the distance and since first hitting the track was destined for great things. Lets hope so , although racing can be a fickle business.

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56 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

For what it is worth I think TAS will win, and this is born out by a huge wrap from someone in the know up in Cambridge. They think the horse will easily run the distance and since first hitting the track was destined for great things. Lets hope so , although racing can be a fickle business.

Thanks. As for me, I can only assess on what he has done so far and I have others above him at this distance

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On 10/24/2019 at 10:39 AM, Globederby19 said:

For what it is worth I think TAS will win, and this is born out by a huge wrap from someone in the know up in Cambridge. They think the horse will easily run the distance and since first hitting the track was destined for great things. Lets hope so , although racing can be a fickle business.

A mighty run by TAS but Lys Gracieux won too well for excuses. Pleased that TAS didnt get any problems in transit from the wide draw...had his chance and did Kiwis proud on the biggest stage

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