Sandpiper Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Bit more intrigue here than the boys version. Some TAB prices: Kali 3.00 Travelling Light 3.40 Bavella 7.00 Jennifer Eccles 9.00 Bella Mente 14.00 Karalino 14.00 Avadane 18.00 Flaunting 18.00 Folk Dress 18.00 Aretha 26.00 Loire 26.00 Riva Capri 26.00 All About Magic 41.00 Cautiously looking at the shape of the race a week out, no natural leaders. There are a number of runners that race handy and have previously taken up the slack and led a race before the turn - Travelling Light (once from 3), Aretha (once from 6), Bavella (once from 7), All About Magic (once from 11) and Hot Tap (twice from 9). And some jockey may decide it's time to shoot for the red bib. Overall though slow to moderate tempo. The more staying types like Bronte Beach, Flaunting, Folk Dress, Hot Tap would have to win against the race tempo. And with Travelling Light a handy runner from any draw with a super finishing 300 - enough to put 2-3 lengths into a filly as good as Bavella - that all begins to be very optimistic. Jennifer Eccles is borderline in this category, if she draws a gate would still need some scrubbing along to hold a decent possie. Kali I have been with for a while, lovely improvement curve, straightforward and tough. Not wanting the 1600 as much as the competition is the concern. Yesterday favouritism changed again, Kali clipped in to 3.00 from 4.00 overtaking Travelling Light who stayed on 3.40. Seemed to me that the day boosted Travelling Light's collateral form a lot more after Harlech's excellent run in the 2000 Guineas so that was an unexpected move. Karalino vs Kali rematch is a nice subplot, Karalino had a little traffic to overcome at Ashburton, not sure it would it have been a different outcome though. 6th up now I am suspicious Karalino has peaked early. Aretha has been friendless and going into a guineas off a poor run with no excuses is not a winning recipe as far as I can remember. If she remains 20s+ going into the race that is extremely tempting. Loire with excuses last time can go very close, should be a lot closer to Bavellas price and can sit handier than recent times with a better gate. Riva Capri will probably blow her chances pulling, hard core upset material all the same simply because she can pull a last sectional with the best of these (was running all over the back of horses up the straight in the Gold Trail) and once in a while everything falls into place. If she were mine an early bid for glory would be the go, she's not going to settle just go for it. Bella Mente should race handy and while not being a flashy type will keep everyone honest - her form around Harlech and Run To Perfection is solid, just not sure about the extra 200 being in her favour. Happy to wait on the weather and draw and final field and hear some news on the disappointing last time out runs. Definitely looking to add Loire at some stage. Travelling Light doesn't need a gate so I'll add her if she draws badly. I suspect a money train if she draws well. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Thought #1 ...you forgot Aalaalune 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 Aalaalune to do a Gaultier and make a mockery of the universe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 (edited) $61...same as Hot Tap and Bronte Beach yet a clearly superior earnings record...just cant win a race despite multiple black type placings at 2yo. Is it unthinkable that she could come right with some give in the ground, that long Riccarton straight, and being ridden cold. Fitness is on her side - well over the odds in my opinion -and I'd much rather she was in a paddock right now, but Rogie and connections think rather differently!. Edited November 10, 2019 by Maximus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 I just drew the line at the 40/1 shots above out of laziness. I would take even money for her to finish ahead of Bronte Beach for sure. Not Hot Tap. Have defended Aalaalune in the past. The problem now is the massive crick in the neck she must have after gawking at the stands while crabbing left yesterday! It's not a mug field. Reckon you'll get better than 60/1 on the tote come game day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandpiper Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 Aalaalune must be being saved for the levin classic 🙂 Winners from the draw Aretha (2), Loire (8), Travelling Light (9). No concerns about in race position for them. Kali (12) could try to sit the outside on TL and get first jump. If they try and get cute on TL who knows what may happen. Expect they will act accordingly and aim to have her 1 x 2 at the bend. Possibly a bit of a traffic jam as many seek that spot without being brave enough to join the lead. Loire still each way value. Can't see her outside top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VC! Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 42 minutes ago, Sandpiper said: Aalaalune must be being saved for the levin classic 🙂 It’s actually gone to the paddock for a spell after securing a spot for the 2020 Everest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximus Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 40 minutes ago, VC! said: It’s actually gone to the paddock for a spell after securing a spot for the 2020 Everest i hope it's a long spell and she returns in about 2021/22 LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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