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    • Irrespective of their data, are they successful punters - as they make out? That is the question.  P.S. The “they” that I refer to are; Mardi, Leggy and Barry. 
    • I am happy to run any query on New Zealand races from a pool of 84,000 races i.e. 30 years but it would need an "intelligent" list of parameters plus filters e.g. we are not interested in jumping races. Something like what is the average tote price for winners from each draw along with their success rate. Track conditions and distance need to be separated. Even then the anomalies are huge so it needs a clear statement as to what the question is and answer required.
    • As an aside, anyone getting angry when bets lose, should probably give it a miss
    • You can post till your fingers drop off Mardi & there are many you won’t be able to change the thought patterns used. I have a mate whom can’t understand why I don’t get angry when bets lose, he can’t for the life of him understand when I say I didn’t expect it to win so the outcome is what was likely. His retort is why the fuck did you back it then? Why don’t you just back the ones you think will win?.  because I have no idea till after the race, I would rather devote my time to finding the runners paying above my perceived chance. I am not skilled enough to pick enough winners & exceed the $ margin reqd to profit. I have yet to see anyone do so with adding a  value component.
    • Thanks Mardi, even though I only understood about 75% of what you wrote
    • Yep, and I have data currently at 6.7 million starts (and that is after culling some data in jurisdictions I no longer operate in).
    • My view point is barrier draws ( & I have over 100,000 race stats to show this) absolutely have a bearing on the outcome of a race, the problem is it’s over compensated in the price & this far exceeds the chance change which is significantly smaller than punters think.   The same thing applies to the weight a horse carries.    These 2 factors are red herrings & there is no pot of gold following the herd here. 
    • At Rosehill, if you take the results of races over 1200m and assess each runner as having 1/starters chance. Then you will be able to determine whether the actual results outperform that based on barrier. Over time, you would expect a reasonably even distribution of the best horses in the various barriers, such that actual win rates of something deemed to make no difference would closely align with expected wins across the population of horses to run. And if the measure (in this case, barrier), was a significant contributor to chance, the actual win rates would vary with expected wins because the measure was important in assessing chance. I expect most will simply not even begin to understand what is written, however that is not an issue for me. If you do that for the 900+ races I hold information for, the barriers 1-5 hold an advantage of 5 wins per 100 races ahead of expected wins. And barriers 10 - 14 hold an advantage of 2 wins per 100 races ahead of expected. (Middle barriers hold a disadvantage in this set of data). So the 5 inner barriers could be deemed to have an advantage of producing 3 more winners per 100 races than the 5 outer barriers. If you decide that the numbers are completely reliable, the change in chance that delivers the 3 extra winners per 100 races for the 5 inner barriers, is small (less than 6%). However, given that as per the comments on here and elsewhere, the barrier creates significant price movement (compared to when barrier is unknown). That 3 win advantage would need to result in less than a 6% price change. So a horse at $10 pre barrier draw, would have to be > $9.40 after drawing barrier 1 to 5. And a horse at $10 pre barrier draw, would need to be less than $10.6 after drawing barrier 10 to 14, for the price change to be in line with the change in chance. Yet the prices move a lot more than 6% The results described above follow the same path for races where the rating was <= 5 only, and equally for the races where the winner ran 1.11 or less only. Given some want to consider things like wet tracks versus dry tracks etc. Punters are being brainwashed - all the talk of barriers, the commentators mentioning barriers, jockeys wanting barrier x, parents passing down their wisdom of punting nous - has made punters actually think barriers make a big difference. When the difference is minimal to how chance is impacted, yet generally large to how price is impacted. The results support that, yet punters won't go against something that has been instilled into them for decades - they can't understand how that could be logical. Funnily enough, to me it is logical that barriers would be largely irrelevant. Any relevance they have is likely due to jockey behaviour due to their own beliefs. As for me, I ignore even the theoretical advantage - the numbers are small, yet believing that 3 wins is significant in this set of daat, would be problematic to me. In this particular case, the single barrier with the biggest advantage is barrier 14. Should I therefore believe that each barrier has a specific advantage and that for example barrier 2 holds an advantage and barrier 3 does not. And therefore adjust chance based on the supposed advantage/disadvantage of each barrier. What a great idea - not. The other funny thing about this is that if you dissect the data into wet v dry, the overall scenario is the same, but the inner barriers have a slightly greater advantage on wet tracks than on dry tracks - which seems to go against what many on here have been surmising. Probably again, due to that brainwashing.
    • Actually many years ago now, I had a system on barriers only. Outside barrier draw paying double figures, whilst the s/r was single figures the profit was out of this world. Punters were much less informed then than they are today. All my betting was with Mark Read at IAS Darwin back then.
    • Meeting 27-Addington R1-2 Got The Chocolates. R2-10 Father Time. R3-8 Soviet Star. R4-5 Straight Flush. R5-1 Spiritual Bliss. R6-8 Noah Magnific. R7-5 Absolute Dynamite.
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