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Race markets


mardigras
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Given discussions re Everest, here are my markets for the Everest and Caulfield Cup (excluding current emergencies).

No great value for me in the Everest. Some potential value in the Caulfield Cup for me. Win or not, I wouldn't be touching Nature Strip. The TABs 'true' price isn't likely a lot different to mine - but they have a lot of fat in their market to help try and make some money.

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On the topic of no reductions for scratchings, those markets look like they have built in extra fat to accommodate that to me. The TAB market for the Caulfield Cup including reserves is at 145%

Edited by mardigras
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Loved that Caulfield Cup.

Amazing that the favourite was so short. My view is that was all because of the supposed advantage from the 7kg odd gain from Gold Trip. I don't think about half a length is worth the variance in price. Gold Trip went fantastic, as did a few others.

And my prices on value were also pretty sharp on the Everest. 4 horses at BF SP at greater than 25% above my price - including the winner. The first 3 home all above my price on BF SP.

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