mardigras

I hope that it doesn't end up being like Kensington - where they ended up ripping it out as it never came right.

Track issues aside, as I mentioned in the above post 18 months ago, the real question is why do Strathayr. 100% unproven in a climate like Auckland as to what benefits would be there. Just build a turf track with decent drainage. They likely would have had problems on a turf track (but they also may not have), but the work to fix it would have been able to be funded by the savings made not doing Strathayr. You may think I am not a Strathayr fan. I think they are OK generally. I don't see the pinnacle tracks in Australia using it. And if it is superior, you would have to ask yourself why they don't. Everyone is still raving about how the direction they have taken is the right one. Well I disagree. And if the tracks turns out fine later, I will still disagree.

I see the NZ TAB is at it again. The top 23 runners in their Melbourne Cup market (if which typically 24 runners would accept), is already at a market perc of 101%. The chance that those 23 all make the field is zero in reality. Yet even if they took bets on those 23 runners evenly, the TAB would make a profit - let alone the other 100+ horses that will be vying for a spot. This is one key reason why Entain/NZ TAB is going to under perform in relation to profitability. They don't know how to take advantage of opportunities in race markets. The top 23 should be around 50%-60% - providing enticement to have a greater number of punters consider betting with them, and make a smaller % return, but a far bigger amount.

Hey @ngakonui grass, how did the Jacobsen factor work out with Little Bit Of Love - same trainer.

I also have no use for place position anywhere.

For me, this is one of the harder things general punters struggle with. Looking at placings as opposed to performance. It is the same issue with many of the stats that punters use. It is unknown as to the performance of the placings that relate to the stat. Another good reason not to use stats.

Although I suspect you will disagree, but I rate his performance last start as his best in his career - superior to the winning run. And the start after the win, I rate superior to the winning run also.

Layers could have had a field day with this one who started favourite, and was my longest rated runner to start in the race. [Runner] Betfair SP mardigras Placing 25 LIMERICK LACE (GB) $18.50 $8.40 $180.00 10

[Runner] Betfair SP mardigras Placing 5 I AM MAXIMUS (GB) $10.50 $10.90 $12.50 1 Clear top rated runner 11 DELTA WORK (GB) $26.00 $42.00 $21.00 2 Started at big value 6 MINELLA INDO (GB) $21.00 $50.00 $18.00 3 Started at big value 13 GALVIN (GB) $36.00 $80.00 $25.00 4 Started at big value 34 KITTY'S LIGHT (GB) $17.00 $17.00 $40.00 5 No value 16 AIN'T THAT A SHAME (GB) $110.00 $120.00 $55.00 6 Started at big value Pretty good forecast of the outcome. 34 horses assessed. The winner was the number one rated. Another 4 of the first 6 started at massive overs against my prices in what is always a difficult race and plenty of betting options in a big field. Thought Galia Des Liteaux ran well just ran out of energy after the last. I Am Maximus was a great patient ride.

Hope you are not betting NZ TAB. That horse is at 10.5 elsewhere ($7.5 NZ TAB) and on NZ TAB is $2.70 for top 3. It's paying $3.65 top 4 on Betfair. Those NZ TAB prices are simply absurd.

thanks - but I assume from that, that you don't determine chance. Is my assumption wrong? If it is correct, then none of your criteria revolves around price versus chance - just the making of some decision. Is that correct? In my opinion, there are many things that stop people making money on horses. 2 key ones being the use of stats and a focus on trying to identify the winner of a race. Neither imo, are involved in making money.

Here is my assessment of the GN. With betfair current prices. Green my advantage. Red, value at great odds. Orange, value but extreme odds. [Runner] Betfair mardigras 7 CORACH RAMBLER (GB) $8.60 $15.00 5 I AM MAXIMUS (GB) $10.50 $12.50 17 VANILLIER (GB) $14.00 $17.50 26 MEETINGOFTHEWATERS (GB) $14.00 $30.00 31 PANDA BOY (GB) $16.00 $21.00 34 KITTY'S LIGHT (GB) $17.00 $40.00 10 MAHLER MISSION (GB) $17.50 $27.00 18 MR INCREDIBLE (GB) $17.50 $32.00 25 LIMERICK LACE (GB) $18.50 $180.00 6 MINELLA INDO (GB) $21.00 $18.00 11 DELTA WORK (GB) $26.00 $21.00 1 NOBLE YEATS (GB) $32.00 $17.50 30 GALIA DES LITEAUX (GB) $32.00 $20.00 13 GALVIN (GB) $36.00 $25.00 2 NASSALAM (GB) $44.00 $100.00 3 COKO BEACH (GB) $50.00 $65.00 9 STATTLER (GB) $60.00 $75.00 20 LATENIGHTPASS (GB) $60.00 $80.00 4 CAPODANNO (GB) $65.00 $44.00 22 ADAMANTLY CHOSEN (GB) $70.00 $20.00 23 MAC TOTTIE (GB) $80.00 $110.00 24 CHEMICAL ENERGY (GB) $80.00 $20.50 28 ROI MAGE (GB) $80.00 $20.50 27 THE GOFFER (GB) $90.00 $80.00 12 FOXY JACKS (GB) $110.00 $70.00 16 AIN'T THAT A SHAME (GB) $110.00 $55.00 33 CHAMBARD (GB) $130.00 $180.00 29 GLENGOULY (GB) $140.00 $160.00 14 FAROUK D'ALENE (GB) $160.00 $95.00 32 EKLAT DE RIRE (GB) $170.00 $160.00 15 ELDORADO ALLEN (GB) $200.00 $50.00 19 RUN WILD FRED (GB) $200.00 $75.00 21 MINELLA CROONER (GB) $230.00 $85.00 8 JANIDIL (GB) $250.00 $44.00 market% 103.82 100.59

I'm still waiting to hear from anyone that uses stats to inform them of when to bet or not. How they apply the statistic, what is special about the statistic and other aspects to it that help decide when it is useful and when it isn't. Such as track stats. I'm interested to know what adjustment to thinking is made when a horse has some solid prior track stats. Take this simple scenario of objectively taking all the horses with 1 or 2 wins (showing they can win), has had less than 8 starts suggesting they haven't just become past their use by date. When assessing all the matching horses that have had 1 prior win on the track, the ROI from over 41000 runners in my database is 97.7% And all the matching horses that have had 0 prior wins on the track, the ROI from over 279000 runners in my database is 98.3% No doubt due to the over-betting done due to the track stat. Of course, there will be many scenarios that might be the other way around. Such as this scenario. Taking all the horses in NZ to race since 2011 that had a track stat showing 3+ placings on the track. Backing all of these on Betfair to win would have returned dividends of $4735.90 from the 4539 runners I have in my database that match that requirement. Fill ya boots. But I'm interested in knowing how to determine WHICH of these have an increased chance, and which don't. People accuse me of being unable to alter my views. If you can present something that details how (even subjectively), when and how I can alter my assessment of a horse due to these stats, I am definitely prepared to listen and learn - but equally question if it simply makes no sense. I can apply nearly any objective rule to my data of which I have a very large amount. Such as how many wins/placings on track, how many starts, which country, how many wins/placing/starts a horse has had, how long since it raced, distance/tc related rules, breeding related rules, metro versus non metro rules, race rating rules, how many starters, what price horse started on betfair etc, who the rider/trainer is, barrier position, weight carried, weight previously carried, placings at any start, fresh up performance etc. Surely these stats would allow me opportunity to improve my assessments - somehow. Yet, I use not a single piece of any of that information in my assessment (except for the price the horse is at) If the approach is subjective, it would be good to know how you apply that subjective thinking. Or whether you read the stat and think therefore it is a better bet, without any further thinking on it. i.e. you don't actually assess chance of the horse you back, and therefore don't adjust the chance in any way. My current thinking is that the majority on here do not actually assess the chance of the runners they back. And therefore there is no adjustment based on the stat. Simply a gut feeling. i.e. a typical punter. A series of things that make you think the horse is a strong chance in a race.

Fantastic horse. Well done.

And Elwick (Hobart) has been abandoned due to issues with the track. Losing their Tasmanian Guineas meeting first to a postponement, and then a cancellation in late 2020. And Clifford Park (Toowoomba) has had multiple abandonments due to weather/state of the track.