More useless stats

[mardigras]

I'm still waiting to hear from anyone that uses stats to inform them of when to bet or not.

How they apply the statistic, what is special about the statistic and other aspects to it that help decide when it is useful and when it isn't.

Such as track stats.

I'm interested to know what adjustment to thinking is made when a horse has some solid prior track stats.

Take this simple scenario of objectively taking all the horses with 1 or 2 wins (showing they can win), has had less than 8 starts suggesting they haven't just become past their use by date.

When assessing all the matching horses that have had 1 prior win on the track, the ROI from over 41000 runners in my database is 97.7%

And all the matching horses that have had 0 prior wins on the track, the ROI from over 279000 runners in my database is 98.3%

No doubt due to the over-betting done due to the track stat. 

Of course, there will be many scenarios that might be the other way around. Such as this scenario.

Taking all the horses in NZ to race since 2011 that had a track stat showing 3+ placings on the track. Backing all of these on Betfair to win would have returned dividends of $4735.90 from the 4539 runners I have in my database that match that requirement. Fill ya boots. But I'm interested in knowing how to determine WHICH of these have an increased chance, and which don't.

People accuse me of being unable to alter my views. If you can present something that details how (even subjectively), when and how I can alter my assessment of a horse due to these stats, I am definitely prepared to listen and learn - but equally question if it simply makes no sense.

I can apply nearly any objective rule to my data of which I have a very large amount.

Such as how many wins/placings on track, how many starts, which country, how many wins/placing/starts a horse has had, how long since it raced, distance/tc related rules, breeding related rules, metro versus non metro rules, race rating rules, how many starters, what price horse started on betfair etc, who the rider/trainer is, barrier position, weight carried, weight previously carried, placings at any start, fresh up performance etc. Surely these stats would allow me opportunity to improve my assessments - somehow. Yet, I use not a single piece of any of that information in my assessment (except for the price the horse is at)

If the approach is subjective, it would be good to know how you apply that subjective thinking. Or whether you read the stat and think therefore it is a better bet, without any further thinking on it. i.e. you don't actually assess chance of the horse you back, and therefore don't adjust the chance in any way.

My current thinking is that the majority on here do not actually assess the chance of the runners they back. And therefore there is no adjustment based on the stat. Simply a gut feeling. i.e. a typical punter. A series of things that make you think the horse is a strong chance in a race.

[ngakonui grass]

I see a horse i like,read the stats,watch the videos to assess form to come out of said race,check family for past performers and then based on all that i make a final decision based on knowledge gained as being a strapper for 40 years.

A share advisor that i subscribe to has always said that there are 3 things that stop people making money on the sharemarket and imo it also applies to horse betting.

Emotions...over analysis...... indecisiveness, He descibes them as the daily enemies investors face.

Only one of the above have i failed to conquer and it affects my betting.

 

 

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[mardigras]

26 minutes ago, ngakonui grass said:

I see a horse i like,read the stats,watch the videos to assess form to come out of said race,check family for past performers and then based on all that i make a final decision based on knowledge gained as being a strapper for 40 years.

A share advisor that i subscribe to has always said that there are 3 things that stop people making money on the sharemarket and imo it also applies to horse betting.

Emotions...over analysis...... indecisiveness, He descibes them as the daily enemies investors face.

Only one of the above have i failed to conquer and it affects my betting.

 

thanks - but I assume from that, that you don't determine chance. Is my assumption wrong? 

If it is correct, then none of your criteria revolves around price versus chance - just the making of some decision. Is that correct?

In my opinion, there are many things that stop people making money on horses. 

2 key ones being the use of stats and a focus on trying to identify the winner of a race. Neither imo, are involved in making money.