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Data modelling


mardigras
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I do all of my betting based around data modelling/data analysis.

Things like determining the impact of weight (generally) for example. Relatively easy to do if you have a decent volume of information.

Doing things such as assessing weight impact by looking at handicap races, which in an ideal situation for high volume of data, the outcomes by weight would be expected to be a linear result. And it is, except for where jurisdictions have minimum weights. Where as expected, the linear line drops away as a number of runners at the minimum are carrying more than what would be expected if the handicapping approach based on ratings was not subject to the minimum.

Using that info, you can work out at which value of distance, where horses are allowed to carry the correct weight under the handicapping system, do the outcomes, make the entire line linear (as it should be). That is one method of identifying the general impact of weight (since everything else is constrained). I do other models on this - which not surprisingly yield the same results.

As an aside, even modelling covid cases in NZ, I am little surprised to see the case numbers reported in NZ, given I expected this (from an earlier post). Obviously cases are higher than what is reported - but my estimate was based on reported numbers anyway.

"A little bit of quick modelling - obviously can be affected by any number of things. I estimate NZ could reach around 15,000 cases per day by the 1st of March."

When I put that post up, I hadn't seen a single item in the news suggesting a number such as that - with most being well beyond that.

I use modelling to determine chance in every event - by modelling the outcomes across thousands of iterations based on a normal distribution of times expected per runner, to identify the chance of finishing in each position. 

With computers, it's the modern way of doing some of this stuff - and another area I'm going to investigate is Machine Learning to see what that can lead to.

The changes over time are what will make profiting from punting more and more difficult as the skills of the people you are betting against improve. Insider info will still have its successes, but in the main, pricing/margins are likely to reduce.

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3 hours ago, mardigras said:

 

The changes over time are what will make profiting from punting more and more difficult as the skills of the people you are betting against improve. Insider info will still have its successes, but in the main, pricing/margins are likely to reduce.

I think this has well and truly started, that’s why so many priced winners are under 10-1 at the Meto meetings, horses that used to be double figures are starting at single figures

For myself personally my ratings and understanding on how to rate a race are not accurate enough, for myself to find value

Corporates putting up 130% along with restrictions really make it difficult 

I however can rate a NZ dog race, and understated the concept of backing value, even if it’s not the dog I think will win the race, also many odds on dogs become value as laying prospects, however the liquidity is minimal, it’s difficult though as from what you say above, as people are on the same page looking to lay and back the same dog, with such microscopic liquidity 

Many of the big punters are packing up Australasian shores and heading overseas whether that’s Hong Kong or UK

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3 minutes ago, VC! said:

I think this has well and truly started, that’s why so many priced winners are under 10-1 at the Meto meetings, horses that used to be double figures are starting at single figures

Yeah, my last line was really the essence of the entire post.

It has already started. 20 years ago it was a piece of cake to obtain a decent ROI without having to really work at it. Now, you have to be more targeted and accept lower returns over all in my view, due to the way the markets and the skills have changed.

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3 hours ago, VC! said:

I think this has well and truly started, that’s why so many priced winners are under 10-1 at the Meto meetings, horses that used to be double figures are starting at single figures

For myself personally my ratings and understanding on how to rate a race are not accurate enough, for myself to find value

Corporates putting up 130% along with restrictions really make it difficult 

I however can rate a NZ dog race, and understated the concept of backing value, even if it’s not the dog I think will win the race, also many odds on dogs become value as laying prospects, however the liquidity is minimal, it’s difficult though as from what you say above, as people are on the same page looking to lay and back the same dog, with such microscopic liquidity 

Many of the big punters are packing up Australasian shores and heading overseas whether that’s Hong Kong or UK

Say that, main focus for pro punters. Plus, more competitive smarter punter these days and better mathematical tools. Make sure most winners are under 10-1 in metro mettings.

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2 minutes ago, Gospel Of Judas said:

Say that, main focus for pro punters. Plus, more competitive smarter punter these days and better mathematical tools. Make sure most winners are under 10-1 in metro mettings.

If I am reading you right GoJ, are you saying most pro punters are targeting those runners that typically are going to be under 10-1? If so, I tend to agree.

Not me however. The average price of the horses I have backed this year is around 16s. I am definitely looking at those higher priced that are more like 10% chances - as opposed to needing say 4-1 where I think they are 25% chances.  

I don't see anywhere near the number of opportunities at the lower prices to get 4-1 for a 25% chance, but at higher odds, the prices available are often more volatile giving a little more opportunity.

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12 hours ago, Gospel Of Judas said:

Say that, main focus for pro punters. Plus, more competitive smarter punter these days and better mathematical tools. Make sure most winners are under 10-1 in metro mettings.

Yeah all of that, also the Trader’s are making fewer mistakes 

Also any mistakes the time frame is minimal 

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18 hours ago, mardigras said:

If I am reading you right GoJ, are you saying most pro punters are targeting those runners that typically are going to be under 10-1? If so, I tend to agree.

Not me however. The average price of the horses I have backed this year is around 16s. I am definitely looking at those higher priced that are more like 10% chances - as opposed to needing say 4-1 where I think they are 25% chances.  

I don't see anywhere near the number of opportunities at the lower prices to get 4-1 for a 25% chance, but at higher odds, the prices available are often more volatile giving a little more opportunity.

Strange one really, say there are some take bigger risks and go for shorter ones. However it is big risk many pro punters never do. Most of smarter ones, be looking for right prices with the percentages. Which be above those you mentioned.

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