Stodge

Very tough race as always. Both the front two in the market, HAMISH and MOUNT LEINSTER, are coming off very long breaks. LIVE YOUR DREAM just missed the cut unfortunately. Last year's winner FUJAIRA PRINCE had a nice warm-up the other day and I think will go close. I'd have both TRIBAL CRAFT and ILARAAB as possibles as well. The Irish raider MIRANN is another to consider.

MISHRIFF is the dominant horse at 2000m currently but I suspect he'll avoid the soft autumn ground in the UK for the US and Japan - as I say, I'd send him for some easy money to Moonee Valley. SNOWFALL was very good - again, there's just a niggle over what she beat. The thought of her and ABAYAR clashing in Paris is one to savour - I think I'd want to be on the colt as he's beaten higher quality but she could gallop all over him. SANDRINE was giving 3 lbs to her rival so she comes out pretty well in defeat - I wonder if they'll rematch in the Cheveley Park. Big Sunday meeting at Deauville - the Morny looks a strong race as does the Jean Romanet. I like EBAIYRA in the latter but the former is very tricky - ARMOR impressed at Goodwood over 1000m and VELOCIDAD, a filly of Joseph O'Brien's, might just surprise.

MISHRIFF was hugely impressive on Wednesday. He clocked 2 minutes 5.92 seconds for the 2000m beating the standard time by 2.4 seconds. Say 12 seconds per 200m and he was 40m ahead of the standard. He'll probably go for the Breeders Cup Turf and end his career in either Japan or Hong Kong. If he were mine, I'd pack him off to the Cox Plate and earn some easy money - seriously, is there anything in Australia to get anywhere near him? YIBIR won the Group 2 over 2400m but he's a gelding so can't run in the English Leger. The good thing (though not for YIBIR) is without the wedding tackle, he'll be back as a 4-y-o and will be a serious force on quick ground. I know SIR LUCAN has been bought by the owners of SIR DRAGONET and to be fair the Voltigeur has proved a useful trial for the Melbourne Cup but I thought he didn't quite get home. YIBIR's stable mate, HURRICANE LANE, winner of the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris, is 5/4 favourite for the Leger.

Two strong performances from MISHRIFF and SNOWFALL on the first two days of the meeting, I'll reflect more over the next few days.

Thanks for the kind word. I won't go into the detail I've done before and elsewhere - just offer my views on what's happening and what I think might happen. You can also follow my unsuccessful punting from afar (or anear as the case may be).

@Midnight Callerhas invited me back here to offer some thoughts on UK, Irish and French racing. It's the big York Ebor meeting this week starting tomorrow with the Juddmonte International which on some measures is the best race in the world in terms of quality. Not sure this year's renewal quite gets to that - it might have done if the first two in Sunday's Marois had turned up. ST MARK'S BASILICA is a late withdrawal due to an infected foot. I fancy MISHRIFF against LOVE - I thought she had a very hard race in the Prince of Wales (the second, AUDARYA, ran poorly in the Nassau). He probably didn't like the slow ground at Sandown after a break but time may tell giving weight to the top 3-y-o was always going to be impossible. ALCOHOL FREE won the Sussex but there's plenty of questions over her stamina and I fancy MAC SWINEY to run better over this shorter trip having been well held in both the English and Irish Derbies. The other big races this week are the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday and the Nunthorpe on Friday. One big problem we're having here currently is small fields. 18% of all races run in the UK in the past fortnight had five runners or fewer. Too much racing?

Catching up on a few bits and bobs from recent times, ALMOND EYE beat the youngsters to win the Japan Cup last Sunday at Hanshin. It was a wonderful sayonara for yet another top mare, perhaps the equal of ENABLE or MAGICAL and no doubt she will be heading to Deep Impact. As for the jumpers, yes, the winter season is getting under way here and in Ireland. The Betfair Chase was the first British Group 1 and that went to BRISTOL DE MAI winning it for the third time in four years. EPATANTE opened her Champion Hurdle title defence with a win in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle last Saturday but the star performance was ENVOI ALLEN in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse last Sunday. He's already being touted as the "next big thing" and looks a banker for the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

Before moving on to the rest of Saturday's Breeders Cup card, news today three-time Foret winner ONE MASTER has been retired. She had been due to run in the Mile but will now head to the paddocks. As she raced over 1400m, she didn't get the recognition she would have as a miler or sprinter. She placed in the Queen Anne and Falmouth and last time was a close third in the Champions Day Sprint but at 1400m she was a real champion. 10 run in the Turf over 2400m and this is the race the Europeans win more often than any other as the Americans don't run their horses over this trip too often. It's worth £1.56 million which makes it more valuable than the Arc. MAGICAL is the 5/2 favourite with the UK bookies and while she was slightly disappointing behind ADDEYBB in the Champion, her defeat of GHAIYYATH in the Irish equivalent (the likes of SOTTSASS behind) looks really solid form and we know she likes American types as she and ENABLE fought out an epic dual in this equivalent race two years ago. She faces a serious threat from Vermeille and Opera winner TARNAWA and back to this trip on quick ground looks ideal for this improving 4-y-o filly. MOGUL won the Grand Prix de Paris - it didn't go well for him in the English Derby but they've always rated him at Ballydoyle. LORD NORTH won the Prince of Wales at Ascot beating ADDEYBB four lengths but MAGICAL finished in front of him at York and I don't see why he should reverse places with the mare. I fancy TARNAWA to upset the Ballydoyle runners. 10 also run in the Classic over 2000m on the Dirt and it's arguably the Arc for the Dirt runners. There look to be five who have a realistic chance of winning. IMPROBABLE has improved all season and beat MAXIMUM SECURITY comfortably in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita last time. It's a different track and 200m further but I struggle to see why the outcome should be any different. He also holds the 7-y-o TOM'S D'ETAT on Whitney running. The top 3-y-o AUTHENTIC and TIS THE LAW make this a real clash of the generations. The former won the Haskell and the Kentucky Derby beating TIZ THE LAW but was beaten a neck by the filly SWISS SKYDIVER in the rescheduled Preakness. It's difficult to tease this out but TIZ THE LAW has been rested for this and could well be right on song. It's not easy to call the race - IMPROBABLE has obvious claims but I'm going to take TIZ THE LAW to emerge as the top dog.

I don't count SIR DRAGONET as a "European" any more as he's now trained in Australia.

On then to the first part of Saturday's stellar card at Keeneland. EQUILATERAL is a reserve for the Turf Sprint but GLASS SLIPPERS, who was second in the Abbaye last time, gets a run. I'm doubtful as to how she will go on the firm turf. The Filly & Mare Turf is over just 1750m here and can be up to 2100m at other venues so we're seeing the milers as well as the 2000m types in the field. PEACEFUL represents Aidan O'Brien and her Irish 1000 Guineas win was on quick ground. This may be short enough for CAYENNE PEPPER but ideal for TEREBELLUM who won a Group 2 at Newmarket on fast ground in June. AUDARYA represents James Fanshawe and was a fine third in the Opera but is completely unproven on quick ground. The Turf Mile is a race for which the Europeans always put up a strong challenge. Both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas winners in the forms of KAMEKO and SISKIN run and there wasn't much between them in the Sussex at Goodwood. KAMEKO returned to form back at Newmarket but SISKIN was disappointing in the Moulin and needs to find his earlier form. CIRCUS MAXIMUS was fourth in this last year behind UNI and must have claims but the likes of SAFE VOYAGE and ONE MASTER look better on softer ground. I'm interested in LOPE Y FERNANDEZ who was third to SISKIN in the Irish 2000 and has mixed it with the very best throughout the campaign.

I wonder if AVD would have been a shuttle stallion so it wouldn't have done his profile any harm in the southern hemisphere.

So, the Grade 2 Juvenile Turf Sprint over 1100m. MIGHTY GURKHA has drawn one and has blinkers on for the first time but the Europeans rarely break as sharp as the Americans and that could cause problems. LIPIZZANER comes out of stall 3 and won over 1200m last time so again may be tapped for early speed. UBETTERBELIEVEIT won the Flying Childers over 1000m at Doncaster last time so speed won't be an issue and I think he has a big chance though Wesley Ward probably holds the key with Norfolk runner-up GOLDEN PAL. The Juvenile Turf over 1600m looks wide open. BATTLEGROUND swerved all the big European juvenile races and hasn't run since winning the Vintage at Goodwood and you'd have to think connections are of the view the horse needs quick ground. He has obvious claims. CADILLAC beat subsequent Group 1 winner VAN GOGH at Leopardstown and didn't handle the ground when fifth in the Dewhurst. I like this horse a lot. Ralph Beckett runs two, DEVILWALA and Royal Lodge winner NEW MANDATE. Of the Europeans, I think CADILLAC could go very well and looked to enjoy the sharp left-handed track at Leopardstown. With SNOWBALL third reserve, the Europeans have four runners among the main field for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. MISS AMULET has never gone beyond 1200m having won the Lowther and been runner up in the Cheveley Park. Will she see out the extra 400m? She should stay 1400m and perhaps she might get away with it. OODNADATTA was third in the Moyglare and the trip won't be an issue. That run matches her closely with PRETTY GORGEOUS, the top juvenile filly in the UK and Ireland. The latter also links to MOTHER EARTH and you'd have to think wherever OODNADATTA finishes, MOTHER EARTH will be close. NAZUNA's second in the Rockfel doesn't look good enough.

Have a preview from me 🙂 The meeting now has 13 Grade 1 championship races - a mixture of Dirt and Turf races but the Americans have the Dirt races to themselves but on the grass the Europeans often prove serious opposition. On Friday, Wesley Ward has 10 of the 24 entries in the Juvenile Turf Sprint over 1100m in which Aidan O'Brien has entered recent Doncaster winner LIPIZZANER with MIGHTY GURKHA and UBETTERBELIEVEIT also in the entries. The Juvenile Turf over 1600m has BATTLEGROUND as the 4/1 favourite but CADILLAC is also entered along with NEW MANDATE and THE LIR JET. Five European entries in the Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1600m and Aidan O'Brien will be hoping MOTHER EARTH and SNOWBALL don't get mixed up again as happened at Newmarket. MISS AMULET and OODNADATTA also run for Ireland while Roger Varian has entered NAZUNA. On to Saturday, GLASS SLIPPERS and EQUILATERAL have been entered for the Turf Sprint over 1100m. As might be expected, a strong European challenge in the Filly & Mare Turf headed by Vermeille winner TARNAWA but also CAYENNE PEPPER, PEACEFUL and TEREBELLUM among others in a race the Europeans have often won. The Turf Mile is another race in which the Europeans usually do very well and with the likes of KAMEKO, SISKIN and CIRCUS MAXIMUS entered, there will be another strong challenge. The Turf over 2400m is the race the Europeans win most often and some years it has been the only European win. With MAGICAL and LORD NORTH coming here off the Champion Stakes and MOGUL coming off the Grand Prix de Paris , it looks another powerful entry. The Classic is worth about the same as the Melbourne Cup and again the parallel is with the Arc as it's the meeting of champions of the generations. The top 4-y-o MAXIMUM SECURITY and IMPROBABLE clash with the 3-y-o SWISS SKYDIVER and AUTHENTIC. More later in the week.

A 1-2-3 for European trained runners and a fine fourth for the Kiwis with THE CHOSEN ONE. Some of the fancied Oz horses just didn't get involved. I suppose some will ask how to end the European dominance - the problem is the Melbourne Cup has made itself attractive by the purse on offer. It's about the same value as the Breeders Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday. As the saying has it "money talks, men walk". The Arc is only worth £1.45 million but it's Europe's richest race and you can see why Flemington looks attractive to Europeans. Reduce the pot if you want to dissuade the pot-hunters and the likes of Coolmore are quite happy to send serious runners for the kind of purses on offer in the Australian spring which dovetails so well with the European season these days. TWILIGHT PAYMENT was superb - given a magnificent front-running ride and found that vital couple of lengths off the home turn. He had been hinting at a resurgence after an 8-length romp in the Group 2 Curragh Cup and a decent third in the Irish St Leger. He's rated 115 which means he's a serious horse but as a 7-y-o I'd have said his best days were behind him. TIGER MOTH ran a fine race in defeat - I'm sure the wide draw didn't help but whether he'd have won with a more direct journey is debatable. Let's not forget he was second in the Irish Derby to SANTIAGO and he was much less experienced than many. I still think in the UK and Ireland he's a 2400m horse and I wonder if he'll be campaigned as such. Three runs in the Melbourne Cup and a second and two thirds speaks volumes for the consistency of PRINCE OF ARRAN and the training of Charlie Fellowes. He didn't get the best of runs and might have won another day. Can he come back yet again as an 8-y-o in 2021? I wouldn't rule it out and to put this into context, ENABLE beat him seven lengths at Kempton in September. ASHRUN finished tenth but beaten only five lengths and I'm sure would have been closer on slower ground. MASTER OF REALITY couldn't reproduce last year's effort and neither STRATUM ALBION nor DASHING WILLOUGHBY ever figured. That leaves ANTHONY VAN DYCK and a sense of deja vu for Aidan O'Brien who lost CLIFFS OF MOHER in this two years ago. A terrible tragedy for all connected with the horse and let's not forget he was a Derby winner in 2019 and won the Foy this year. Doubtless he'd have joined the stallion ranks at Coolmore but that's not to be.

Very often there are changes in track condition or bias which only become apparent once racing has started so it's a question of watching the earlier races as a way to what might be favoured in the later races. I'm very keen on using track conditions and especially proven track form under those conditions - the expression "horses for courses" isn't just an aphorism. As for blinkers, there are trainers who are more successful with horses in first-time blinkers than others. In a race with no obvious edge, it can be a wildcard favouring one horse and it isn't usually reflected in the price. Does it improve the chances of the horse winning? The answer is you can't know how any horse will react to first-time blinkers - it helps some but not all. You have tour methodology and it may be nothing I say will make any difference because the way you assess races requires on different elements. That's fine - I'm not saying one way is better than another. If I am on track, I don't always go and look at the horses in the paddock but I will for 2-y-o or inexperienced 3-y-o as physical appearance, maturity and behaviour are all factors. I don't see the point with experienced handicappers or jumpers to be honest - If one is sweating freely and it's not a hot day that may not be relevant as it could be a mannerism.

I think track draw bias has reduced a lot in recent years possibly due to track management or changes in stall positioning. When I attended Lingfield regularly, there was often a huge bias to being drawn up against the stands rail in the shorter races (1000-1500m) but that has eased somewhat with time. The term "the golden highway" used to be regularly used for strips of ground which ran faster than other areas and that was often due to irrigation or to where people used the course as a jogging track. Another example is when rails are moved to provide fresh ground during longer meetings - being drawn on the unused ground was an advantage. These aren't "general" biases but specific biases which can be noted from stalls positioning and/or alignment. These biases can also affect HOW a race is run - you might get wind conditions or track conditions which expressly favour front runners or a track bias which means getting over to one side or the other in wet conditions is a huge advantage (at Brighton, Epsom and Goodwood where the course cambers down to the rails it is a huge advantage on soft ground to be on the "other side" i.e: at the top of the slope where the ground is drier). I'd argue awareness of the specific biases that can operate on a particular day can be as influential as the more general biases.

A lot depends on the number of runners. A low draw at Chester is a huge advantage given how tight the course is but if it's a 5-runner race it doesn't matter as much as it does with a 20-runner race.

Yes, it's had plenty of coverage over here. There's a view it's symptomatic of the realities of racing economics. The Iron Eagle at Rosehill tomorrow goes for over £2 million - the Kennedy Cantala at Flemington is £476k. We're nowhere near that and it's no surprise a better quality of horse is now being sold to continue racing in Australia. ENGLISH KING looks to me an ideal horse for Australian staying races - he loves quick ground and is effective at 2400m and upwards.

Fair comment, that's a long way to the turn - at a bigger track, you might only have 400m to the turn which does make life harder. I presume the issue is more with the way the race seems to be run - to the British observer, it's more like a French race with a crawl before a sprint down the straight. Despite that, you need a horse who gets 2400m rather than 2000m.

The odds up here as follows: 5/1 TIGER MOTH 7/1 SIR DRAGONET 9/1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK, SURPRISE BABY 10/1 PRINCE OF ARRAN, VERRY ELLEGGANT 12/1 RUSSIAN CAMELOT 20/1 BAR SURPRISE BABY was fifth last year and put up a perfectly good trial in the Turnbull but we await the all-important barrier draw.

PONDUS goes in the Bendigo Cup but I imagine he'll have to win to get in the Melbourne Cup field. I wasn't that taken with his 4-y-o campaign and it seems a long time since he chased home ADDEYBB at Haydock.

A busy weekend up here with the final Group 1 races of the English and French seasons. Autumn usually means rain and heavy ground and this year is no exception. Heavy rain soon after the start of racing on the Town Moor turned the ground heavy and made the 1600m of the Vertem Futurity as much of a stamina test as ever for the juveniles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBwqheH66Zk With WEMBLEY a late scratching, this probably wasn’t the strongest renewal of this race. MAC SWINEY (named after a Lord Mayor of Cork) toughed it out to hold off ONE RULER and the promising BARADAR. The winner had beaten CADILLAC in the Futurity but had run poorly on quicker ground in the National and for those looking at long-range bets, it really does seem MAC SWINEY needs soft turf if not to help him then to slow the others down. ONE RULER ran perfectly well in defeat and is likely to be the Godolphin standard bearer in the early 3-y-o races. I was also taken with BARADAR in third – he’s son of Muharrar out of a Pivotal mare so again you’d think slow ground would be a big help. I see him as a 1400m horse next season. Of the others, MEGALLAN couldn’t cope with the ground and both Champagne third STATE OF REST and maiden KING VEGA were likewise well held. Saint Cloud staged the last two French juvenile Group 1 races and rather like the Vertem Futurity, they have proved surprising helpful pointers for the classic season. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RYy6B_8qa0 VAN GOGH became yet another Ballydoyle winner in this race, but I think the fact he got a dream run up the rail was a huge help. It was vital throughout the afternoon to be right up against the stands side fence and Pierre-Charles Boudot took full advantage of the way the race developed. The winner has shown useful form in Group 2 events so this was a decent step forward and in a year with no real outstanding colt (or filly), he goes into winter quarters with every prospect of being a classic contender next year. Of the others, JADOOMI raced prominently but this was a big step up from a sales race and he didn’t run too badly but LA BAROSSA got caught out wide and never looked happy in the ground. The Criterium de Saint Cloud is over 2000m and has also had a strong roll of honour including, more recently, future Arc winner Waldgeist. This year’s renewal looked a notch or two below that quality in all honesty. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8dbSN29D9c That was as gutsy a performance as you could wish to see from GEAR UP who was prominent every step of the way and toughed it out to hold the late challenge of BOTANIK. Mark Johnston’s horses are renowned for their strength and stamina and GEAR UP showed it here in spades. He had run fourth in the Royal Lodge staying on and the 2000m looked ideal and you’d think he could be a really useful staying type next year. It was interesting to see the jockeys come off the well chewed-up turf on the rail and come more towards the centre of the course. MAKALOUN and TIGER TANAKA both ran okay but didn’t seem to quite see out the trip. I was hopeful for BEST OF LIPS on the home turn, but he got into a barging match with the winner and came off much the worse. More heavy ground at Longchamp on Sunday for the Prix Royal Oak over 3000m but it was a case of plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuozFIGw4A0 Another Mark Johnston horse making almost all and toughing it out in front. This time it was SUBJECTIVIST who capped off a memorable weekend for the Yorkshire trainer. He won the March Stakes at Goodwood on soft ground by 15 lengths but had been well held in both the Voltigeur and the St Leger on much quicker ground. He’s clearly another for whom it can’t be too deep. VALIA ran creditably in second and HOLDTHAISGREEN was third. Oddly enough, despite the heavy ground, it all happened too quick for PRINCESS ZOE who ran on for fourth without ever threatening. The supporting Grand Conseil de Paris, a Group 2, showed once again how foolish it is to underestimate Joseph O’Brien as BARON SAMEDI was backed into favourite and just held off the late challenge of MARE AUSTRALIS.

I'm not wholly convinced SIR DRAGONET doesn't go on fast ground - his two runs on Good to Firm ground in the UK were fifth in the Derby and fourth in the Leger so both Group 1 classics and he wasn't beaten far in either. If it came up decent at Flemington, he'd have every chance but I thought it dropped for him nicely in the Cox Plate.

Yes, Yarmouth is a track often favoured by the Newmarket yards - Leicester is another. RANDON HARVEST is by War Front out of a Pivotal mare called SETA. I was at Newmarket when SETA made her debut - she was trained by Luca Cumani - and she bolted up by 8 lengths and was hugely impressive. She went off 4/7 for the May Hill at Doncaster and was beaten into third. The full sister to RANDOM HARVEST wasn't much to be honest so I'm cautious for now. MS GHANDI - by Kingman out of a Galileo mare. I agree she's one for the note book - could be a middle distance filly next year. The mare has thrown a couple of decent ones. KINDRED SPIRIT - by Invincible Spirit out of a Green Tune mare - probably will get a mile but not much further. The second in the maiden was a much more exposed filly who has been given a rating of 78 so the winner will need to come on a lot to be Pattern class on this evidence but certainly with the right trainer to do that.

All eight stand in Sunday's Royal Oak at Longchamp where the ground is Heavy. PRINCESS ZOE won the 4000m Cadran on Arc weekend and that was a brutal slog so this 3000m race will seem like a sprint. I reckon she's improved 40 lbs since winning a handicap back in June and she may well go in again but I prefer Chaudenay winner VALIA whose second to WONDERFUL TONIGHT in the Minerve at Deauville now looks top class form. The Group 2 Conseil de Paris over 2200m is an interesting end of season race. NAGANO GOLD is probably the best horse in Eastern Europe - in 2019 he ran second in the Hardwicke at Ascot and he started this campaign with a fine second in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. He was third to ANTHONY VAN DYCK in the Foy and last time won at Sluzewiec which as we all know is Poland's foremost racecourse. The race he won is Poland's biggest race known in English as the Great Warsaw Race over 2600m. BARON SAMEDI represents Joseph O'Brien but he's won handicaps so far and I like SOFT LIGHT who was sixth in last year's Arc and MARE AUSTRALIS, a lightly raced type from the Fabre yard.