Lightning Blue
-
Posts
1,806 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
21
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Gallery
Blogs
Events
Articles
Store
Downloads
Posts posted by Lightning Blue
-
-
55 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:
Also amounst my research checked Alex P results Fri & Oaks winner All You Need is Me by Adore Me. Adore Me producing top horses.
Don't forget the one I tipped you a couple of months ago for this years Nz Cup Karrots ... JOLIMONT. a fantastic Sweet Lou horse.
He has just returned to racing and won Friday night (and last week ) with the Great man Himself MARK PURDON (doing the Very Rare catch driving) driving for Arna Donnelly.
No way can ir win the Cup with David Butcher driving , and possibly not with Arna training even. Even though she is doing a Smashing job ( in smaller races with Kango and that)
So I Pose You this question >>>> If you were a JOLIMONT owner (there's 5 persons in total actually ) would you now say "Sorry Arna ..Mark could win the Nz Cup or Nz FFA later in the year for me..I'm sending the horse to him "
If mine . he'd be on the Picton ferry about now heading South 😆😎😂🏆
-
One of the Greatest Songs ever made !!!!!! you'll enjoy this one. "searching for some happiness' in Little Green Bag.
they're actually a Dutch band. George Baker just a stage-name to sell internationally
This is another Video from 1970. Absolutely Terrible video (as all were in those days), where while making the first years of music videos.... they had NO IDEA what to film so they were just walking around and smoking stuff, and drinking for the Video !!! hahaha enjoy !! there's even a nice horse in it lol.
-
4
-
-
4 minutes ago, mardigras said:
You don't seem to be able to help yourself. Keep them coming, if it makes you feel better.
That's true. best thing you've said yet. thank you for the concern . I have a chuckle quite a bit in this thread.
I feel , there's been some exciting races and It does make you feel better . your questions seem to show you are trying to understand 'new' old concepts so good on you for that . I don't understand your Slipper Chart market for example but am impressed that people take the time to do that stuff and have skill to go with new concepts. I told Barry , I like Barry's system for example where he bases his selections on where horses are in the running. I find that as a most Vital component too, but don't have the skill to do it on a large scale.
I could work out that COLD CHISEL was a huge chance in the Group 1 Great Northern Derby the other night for his QLD owner , as drawn one would be sitting behind the leader . and his chance of Victory enormous therefore. Barriers are important you know , to increase your chances of Victory 🏆.
I think you are probably old enough to understand the barrier draw issues and weight issues that go with Horse racing. Mickey Dee said on TV, it was very awkward and hard work to win with that NZ galloper at MV that beat Quintessa , but he did it anyway from a terrible alley , as is a Fantastic jockey. I love backing his rides. (missed that one though)
There was comment about IMperatriz winning from barrier 10. "Barriers don't matter , she still won anyway" . Fact is, She sat 3 wide the whole way . had to work real hard drawn out there, and then cling on late... . and what a gutsy win 🏆 . would of been easier drawn in a bit for Opie but he met the challenge. Nearly any other horse would of been closer to last then first . as Barriers and weights do Matter greatly in your chances of Winning a race ... as everyone knows... but gang mentality sets in and so people won't admit it 😉 can't say we didn't try I spose lol...
-
2 minutes ago, mardigras said:
Pretty sad post.
I'm more than happy for you to have won, however I don't mind missing any 'tips' as I don't follow them.
You posted on a topic that had been discussing the effect of weight. Then I ask some questions about your post and you respond without answering any of the questions and make a false accusation.
My post had not a single element of being mean.
Very sad.
well patronising then. is that a better word you? . Wonder if we have to explain the meaning of that one to you.
your many questions on this thread are often showing a lack of knowledge of horse racing , how weight and barrier draws have been used TO ADVANTAGE on many many occasions over more than hundred years.
yes horses can WIN from bad barriers . I travelled with a horse to Nz once for the Biggest race they have at Addington and we drew an appalling barrier . 14 . But Lightning Blue still won the Interdominion anyway . which was a real thrill. was a great few weeks/ years with that horse I can tell you.
Your Smart-arse question about posting after the event ,is the SAD post mate. you are Obviously just stirring and seen to all and sundry... and my retort would and should make you sad/bad/ mad or what ever you want to be ,
and I already said previously How I had selected those winners (well alas Sunshine In Paris didn't win very unfortunately , from the great barrier draw that gave it every ADVANTAGE to win , but came close)
Better luck next week . There will be some more winners . and winners are grinners....
-
24 minutes ago, mardigras said:
Just to confirm, are you suggesting that Elettrica would be unlikely to have won if she had carried 59.5?
I'm just trying to gauge how important you see the 3kg received. The horse wins by 3.4 lengths, and you seem to want to suggest that was due to the 3kg allowance. Is that correct?
Is there a reason you didn't share this snippet of gold before the horse won? Or is it always easier to do so after the event?
Mate can't we just enjoy the racing ? I'm doing fine thank you .
Thank you for helping Hesi with his Slipper market. I admire your work there. shows great fortitude and skill to put together your own market like that. you accurately showed Lady of Camelot shorter . excellent work I thought .
My best 2 today were Lady of Camelot and Sunshine In Paris. so close to a very nice double collect . but did ok anyway.
Your asking these questions is a waste of time as your reactions are poor .. and you are Not interested in my thoughts anyway ?? .so why ask ? can't you just say "Congratulations "and/or" that worked out well" .without being mean ?
Instead just posting a grizzling Timing issue where you missed my Tip . sorry you didn't work it out mate . Not much I can do about it . I posted the three tips to nice people here . you weren't one of them unfortunately.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, PWJ said:
I thought someone said weight did not matter 😎
Lady of Camelot ..drawn beautifully in 4 . Sat 1-1 like the perfect trailing trotting spot . takes the win . just gotta love the good barrier draws. excellent stuff. wasn't that hard to work out actually.... and Gai is the Slipper Queen.
-
1
-
-
yeehaa !! (put that there for Factory man Gee, just in case he's not about ) Max and LB are still yet to start 😁
-
One good thing is if you stand for the tried and proven system that is in place of weight relief for apprentices and good barrier draws , both of which naturally really, really help the chances of your horse in a race (for trainers , owners and the small punters alike....
you can come up with Molly Bourke claiming 3kg in the first at Sydney , beautifully drawn at gate 4 .
so Elettrica starts at a similar weight to the opponents and wins by many lengths in the end , even with a learner jockey riding in town against the Big Boys . as that how important weight relief is .56.5 carried instead of 59.5kg . that sort of weight a big ask against the class of those rival jockeys today.
5-1 too . very nice. nice lunch and dinner coming up thanks for encouraging me to stick with the System guys. you are legends of the turf. might even have a few bets at the Trots now.
-
2
-
1
-
-
Slipper day at Rosehill and first Lady Gai will be wearing her Best Dress today with a Big line up in the Great Race !!.
Best of Luck opponent Chief Jack ! for a win for your Chiefs at the Hurricanes in rugby. Looking for a Cortez try for you!!!
Sorry the mighty 'Queensland Reds' pipped your lads earlier in the month to blemish the Chief's win streak. good Queensland omen for LB though 😁 back to hunt another Victory with these fabulous galloping ones !🏆
Race 1 / 4 - 8
Race 2 / 1 - 4 BB 4kg claim off that toppie . home she goes 😉
Race 3/ 4 - 7
Race 4/ 5 - 14
Race 5/ 1 - 2
Race 6/ 2 - 4
Race 7/ 1 - 15
Race 8/ 5 - 6 the great NZ mare is back !! . home she goes..
Race 9/ 1 - 6
Race10/ 10 - 11 BB 'Sunshine In Paris' 🏇 . Paris 🗼 is a long way from home .. but home she goes too ..😄
thanks PJ . Hope for your great team OLD MATE here to have a quiet day .Rob sure to give you some worries... Up the Factory !!
-
3
-
-
44 minutes ago, Hesi said:
Ever thought about trying an online dating site LB
Isn't this It ? 😁
45 minutes ago, Hesi said:Only just, if Territory Express did not appear in the last 20m to claim Detonator Jack, I had you and from a long way behind
Only a cats cock hair in it mate. I all but took Jmac on that winner of that as days Best bet ,but went for the other Waller horse at the last minute . he (Democracy) was all the oil too, but I thought he would get too far back to arrive in time. Democracy Manifest a HUGE win , and Maria , Ian and Graeme and your good self ALL nailed it .congrats.... What a tremendous Jmac push of it's head at the post too. A truly fabulous NZ jockey with an amazing 'Will to Win'.
-
2 minutes ago, pete said:
I'd echo that. Horrible time for you LB so keep your chin up and keep posting.
hahaha thank you blokes for your kind words . yeah like life is a race to the finish . You win some ..ya lose some.. the Mrs not talking to me now after yesterday ...but been gone from home 2 years now and you drift apart accordingly . make some new plans now....
Thank you for the site here to help cheer people up. and enjoy the great racing scene, comps and that. we are so lucky to have a great lot of races each and every week to enjoy the Amazing horses (and great people that connect with them ) was a fantastic 20 years I enjoyed personally being involved and wouldn't of missed it for quids ..
Well onwards we go , will watch Horsham on tele later now (put some tips on thread earlier) and see if get a quid lol....😆 or just completely mugged by Baz Mardi and horses too lol 😆.... at least I pipped Hesi last week 😁😎
-
4
-
-
15 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:
No he has worked it out already LB, which is why he is a very successful punter.
I'm not impressed by that Rees . A lot of people on racing sites are successful punters . I could say I was and that would impress nobody either.....and there a lot that enjoy the racing too. the knowledge of racing by those that bother to Post on forums is Extremely high . They have a passion for the sport , as seen by their willingness to post stuff and enjoy the racing and comps and that....... I'm being told my posts are nonsense and go back to the trots . lovely....
Mardi has decided to challenge/query the weights system and apprentice claim system. A system Long applied by the racing Industry in Australia and New Zealand. some of his (mardi's) posts he seemed unsure as to why this is so ??,
hence I said he might still be 'working it out '. (The apprentice claims system and weights handicaps being used that is and DEFINITELY Not his punting , which is of no consequence to anyone but him)
He asked me about IMPERATRIZ handicaps in recent races on this thread, as something was amiss there. I didn't have the answer for him (suggest ring the Handicapper) , so he still might have to 'work it out'.
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, BarryB said:
Stop talking rubbish, no ones belittling you.
You have given examples that you think support a theory based on what the industry works too. 98% of the industry loses so good luck with following that criteria.
We can't all follow the same criteria as you . A lot of people don't know where they will be in the running. I've never heard of the horses I put up today which was just for a bit of fun , and seemed to show-case some of the apprentice Claims being applied that I was talking with Mardi about....
.Everyone is different. Including all of us nonsense ''supposed Losing Punter s . So there's no need to call people's post s rubbish and nonsense. That is belittling whether you think it is or not.... I was told to go back to the trots by Mardi and that is quite disrespectful too.
I've just popped on some examples of claims being made at Horsham today .
That is In Fact happening LIVE today, so is is not nonsense , and the fact remains is that the claims are being applied so that the horse's has more chance in the race's today . can't see what is nonsense about that.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, BarryB said:
What you have posted is a complete nonsense, the difference between them & other horses in the race is fark all in weight apart from about 1 or 2 way down the bottom.
You have honestly disarmed your position with the above post.
Barry we're not in a war mate . disarm my position ? I haven't taken up arms against anyone.
People can post on this site without being nonsense mate. or belittling people like that.
I've made some observations at a meeting today , applied FACTUAL criteria . and you don't like it.
thanks for nothing.
-
2
-
-
1 hour ago, mardigras said:
It may happen, it may not. I certainly don't know that the horse has instantly more chance. It doesn't for me. If it wins with 57 or 58, my view is it would win with 61,62 (except in the cases I have talked about previously where the horse has a weight carrying threshold of less than the allocated weight).
I see you are still trying to work it all out Mardi . that's excellent . every bit of learning helps as does every Kilo off help (IMO and the entire racing industry that applies the handicaps and apprentice claims on a daily basis )
The proof is in the pudding , so let's try and get the Quaddie for you today . and you wanted example's
I would love to apply Barry's technique of knowing where they might be in the running , but we don't know it for these.
I picked Horsham as Victoria racing is the best (and it's always on my Free to Air racing channel broadcast on tele 😁)
Leg one RACE 5 .. Numbers 1 and 2 have a serious impost of 63kg. BANonKidonk and Luv The Bool.
the trainers have however 'seen the light' .and gone with Pozman (3kg claim) and great young apprentice Tom Prebble (1.5 kg) respectably, to lighten that hefty load on their horses back .good smart trainers
Leg two RACE 6 ... No claims 😪. but using a brilliant alternate strategy of good jockeys and good trainers coming from good Barrier draws ( barriers are important, contrary to popular belief 😉) we have Following Sea and Womanizer drawn barriers 1 and 4 with Coffey and Meech🥰 aboard trained by McEvoys and kiwi's Busuttin/young combo . excellent !
Leg three RACE 7.. two more runners with a huge weight over 60kg's. Captain Joalian (61) and The Turfinator (60.5)
the trainers have popped on Hammond (2kg claim) and Prebble and can roll with 59 now . instantly more chance😎.
Leg four RACE 8. . ZipItUp should zip up the Quaddie for us , getting Hammond 2kg off that massive 62 handicap .
60kg is still a LOT to carry though? so let's throw in N0 3. Black Tahitian ( from the Good draw and with the great Coffeyman atop and a solid trainer too )
There you go mates!!! .. a great shot at the Quaddie after 10 minutes hard study 😂💰
HORSHAM Quaddie Friday 1 - 2 / 3 - 6 / 3 - 4 / 2 - 3 best of luck $16 🥇
-
1 minute ago, BarryB said:
LB, is it a poor night for TV for you?
Or is it a case of the Mrs (or Husband) are out on the town & you are at a loose end tonight.
No .I'll be watching the Pies v Saints shortly. just doing my sportsbet AFL/NRL tips on-line now . and some Supercoach
And just today I told the Mrs (who lives with her elderly dad in the next suburb ) that we should file for divorce after 30 years too . so it is a sad day indeed 😪 so yes you are very perceptive. kudos to you .
p.s. I do like your system of working out where horses will be in the running . to help improve their chances. Having been in several hundred races I would say that is almost the Critical Element of your chances of placing in a race are where you are in the running. Interesting to see what Imperatriz does from her barrier this weekend. give her strength !!!
-
2
-
-
Just now, pete said:
Are you 100% certain these horses wouldn't win with more weight and a senior rider on board?
How can you possibly know this?
More confirmation bias.
Well you watch the races week to week . Most horses have a senior rider on them at some starts . (hope that doesn't draw criticism lol)
Horses reach a point where they are starting to get beat . Hallelujah ! an apprentice pops on and 3 or 4 kilo's comes off and the horse is in the money again. You and all the folk here know this happens .
sometimes a horse in a handicap (everyday somewhere) is allocated 60 , 61 , 62 kilos . there are endless examples of this . The Apprentice is given the ride and Hallelujah !! 57 , 58 or whatever is carried . and the horse has the same impost as A Lot of the rivals . Instantly more chance , than if it lugged over 60.
you guys know this ?? it happens every day . None of us born yesterday. yeah yeah go back to the trots from Mardigras will be the reply lol 😂
-
5 minutes ago, pete said:
Did you actually read this from the article I posted?
"You shouldn’t focus too much on the benefits of an apprentice’s claim unless you are also penalising the jockey for inexperience. You can’t have it both ways – they get an allowance for a reason, so don’t over-estimate the weight relief provided by a claiming apprentice. As a group they basically achieve the same betting returns as senior jockeys"
It's just a good way to give your horse more chance if you're an owner paying a lot of money training fees Pete. as the jockey gets more wins , his claim lessens . what a great system ! it's used in Aus and NZ .
If Mardi thinks the owner is giving the apprentice experience is the reason he is on , good for him.
I would highly suggest ....it is the second sentence by Mardigrass below that is the case on MOST occasions , from years of observation , and supporting the young riders . Matty Cartwright last winter was a blessing to behold . Gaudray riding terrific lately....the Winter will bring out some more claims up the very long midweek Sandown straight (and hopefully on some Nz courses too )
9 minutes ago, mardigras said:As far as apprentice riders go, I would hope they would use them to give them experience to become a better rider. If they use them because they think the weight relief is going to help, that's their choice.
-
2 minutes ago, mardigras said:
If the horse is the best chance, wouldn't they be wise to get down to the weight rather than miss out?
My advice is, if you don't understand the topic, stick to the trots.
And they do on occasion as I just said , and I don't need your advice thanks . so no need to be condescending.
Hope No Trainers that use all the good Apprentice Jockeys hear the good news supplied on this thread, with the apprentice claims making bugger All difference? according to the expert analysis . then the poor buggers will be getting No rides at all and the BIG boys (and girls) can rule the turf .
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, Hesi said:
By the way OM, you missed, the earth is flat, Covid was a conspiracy, the CIA arranged the shooting of Kennedy and organised 9/11 lol lol.
And they're still trying to get a Moon Landing done. Can't you fudge one on the Ellerslie Hill or something?
Also great to see Barry posting the LOTTO numbers just now !! . guess the bastards are in there somewhere . 💰
-
1 minute ago, mardigras said:
I didn't think jockeys were the ones that allocated the weight to runners, so I don't understand your comment.
Mate i've had to explain so much here including the theory of Fat drivers lol. hope you enjoyed that one.🍻
The jockeys are sweating down to the light-weights to get a good ride with a good light weight chance of beating the toppies ... It's happened a Fair few times over the course of decades of racing. Most racing followers know this . Are you new to the sport ? (tongue in cheek mate , don't report me to the teacher Pete please 😂) he's the devil in disguise 😋
-
All that Jockey Sweat over the years.!!! All for nothing .. quite sad really. what were they thinking in those sauna's? .
probably dreaming of leading the Golden Slipper from Barrier 16 while the salt gets in their eyes.. . aaahhhh 😂😉😎
-
1
-
-
THursday Trivia 2 for the day . since we're talking about the great Phar Lap and lugging Weights .
Phar Lap the most famous Melbourne Cup winner of All time carrying near record 65.5 kg to Victory in 1930.
The VRC did stop him from winning the 1931 Melbourne Cup . Weight will stop the best of them .
Have a crack at guessing the weight he actually carried ? (loomed up but the weight told and he battled into 8th place)
-
1 minute ago, ngakonui grass said:
NIGHTMARCH? phar lap 3rd wouldn't settle both sired by Night Raid
Yes , another NZ bred and owned classy horse NightMarch ... a Cox Plate winner too.
and his stablename was "The Kiwi" 😁. excellent stuff.
The bit of interesting Thursday Trivia is Phar Lap raced as a 3 year old in the Melbourne Cup carrying 47kg , just after winnning the AJC Derby and the Vic Derby. finishing 3rd to NightMarch.
well done NG !!
Craig's Music faves
in Music Videos
Posted
seems he has lost his weed Maxi.😆😂 stored in a little green bag some where and can't remember where he put it.
Great tune you can sing anytime in the shower or whereever, has some amateur dance moves. while ya doing house chores, or some great bass guitar work that is easy for novices, or if a complete learner musician , you just get a Tambourine and smash it along easy enough to the tune. Hope he finds his stash soon !!! 🎶