Lightning Blue

20 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Good for you bud, would have been a lovely job.  Did they give a reason ?. 

They said it was a 'Hot' field and some Applicants were already working as Handicappers interstate .

Probably the modern way of saying "Too Old " lol.. .they were kind and rang back (David Brick {QLD harness racing manager})  and said my knowledge was very good and that. they were even surprised as I had spotted an Incorrectly handicapped horse in a race field for that evening. (needed a claiming driver but didn't have one listed to be back a grade) 

They mentioned Albion Park might be sold soon .. wow !  and a purpose built facility built between Bris and Gold Coast . because of the Olympics in a few years time , and to house big barns , and have big track (as per the Menangle model NSW)  the beautiful Gold Coast harness track closed 2010 for Commonwealth Games housing . such a waste. 😰

can't see how Albion would sell though.?? No developer would want it......As  It floods All the time (every Big rain week)  as is very low level. Here's a photo from March 2022 for example . 

A Wide 'Barrier draw' won't even help you in these conditions 😂  

With ''Weight carrying'' in the News (Imperatriz beaten by a light weighted horse in the Newmarket Hcp)  

Famous Aussie/kiwi horse Phar Lap Carryed 65.5 kg to Victory in the 1930 Melbourne Cup .

But do you remember what happened the year before? . What happened with Phar Lap? A bit of Trivia Not many know

This horse in Photo did the damage . who is he? and what other connection to Phar Lap does he have ? 

Here's todays Trivia horse . 

7 hours ago, mardigras said:

Can you explain to me how this happened given Imperatriz carried 1.5 kg more in the latest run than the prior Flemington run.

November 11, 2023 Flemington Good 4, 1200m 56.5kg time 1.09.08 (1st by 0.5 lengths)

March 9, 2024 Flemington Good 4, 1200m 58.0kg time 1.09.05 (beaten by 1.25 lengths)

She ran faster with more weight.

Apologies mate . I don't have that answer . I recently applied for the Queensland Harness Racing Handicapper job ,fairly straight forward National Ratings stuff to handicap the Pacers and Trotters... but got knocked back 😰 , rather unfortunately as would of been good at that.. At least got an Interview I spose.🙄

As far as doing the weights for Eagle Farm and Doomben . That would be pretty hard to do. I remember Carpenter used to get criticized All the time doing the Melbourne Cup Weights every year. Thankless Job . (as is some forums posting  lol😁)

Maybe you could try and ring Vic Racing HQ,  and see if you could Speak to the Handicapper ? he might be able to answer your question ?

Good article THANKS to Pete Lane there about weights today on this thread . Thanks Pete !! 🏆.

3 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I hope you are not suggesting that a system they use isn't working! 

To be honest it sucks. It's working for Sundee's Son (now thankfully retired for the sake of the opposition) as he was winning Rowe Cups and Dominions and then the following year in same races still starting off the front from the stand .

and trotting 2miles in 3.56 odd on. 4 seconds odd National record lol  People there were just selling off their trotters to Australia or waiting for the grass track. 

Lazarus and Copy That did exactly the same in NZ CUP and NZ loses MANY MANY horses because of this . They give up trying to win a Big one there, and just send them to an Aus state. The NZ harness CEO was racing his in NSW, Robin Butt races his good ones in WA,  The NZ system is Definitely Not Working well . you are Running Out of Horses !!!!

6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

Perhaps you should have stuck to trotting. Pulling those carts around with those fat buggers must have really made a difference.

Nothing wrong with the trotting . NZ a proud tradition and many fine champions.

Sadly they have fiddled with the Handicap system and made some of the great races FFA's so the best are off the Front like Sundee's Son and Copy That so can win more than one of the features like the NZ Cup, Rowe Cup , Dominion and that and not be penalized like years gone by. 10m and 20m behind from the stand the galloping equal of getting a Weight Penalty.  (and therefore gives ALL RUNNERS a Runners Chance of Victory)  as Is now...The same horses win over and over and the Competition Fades greatly. and the harness Industry is struggling in NZ because of this. 

Weight in the sulky (fat driver) makes Very little DIFFERENCE mate , the Wheels are taking the weight of driver , Not the horse . Pretty sure you know this already , can actually be beneficial on occasion,  if the driver can swing back over the point of balance and sort of lift the horse slightly via the harness. Hopefully you might know what I mean ,..but your so ''Engrained '' in your ways ?? lol  look out for the Inside draws too , at the trots and in Slipper 😁😎😉🍻  

4 minutes ago, mardigras said:

You're one of my favourite punters on this site. Because you actually think the weight scale is tried and proven.

One thing I agree with you is that the weight scale is just a way to try and even the contest. Only problem is, it isn't doing that. (And the likes of NZTR know this). 

I'll leave you to digest this - which won't take you long as you seem closed off to anything that hasn't been handed down through the generations as if it is actually true. So not a lot of point responding to you on these topics. They require a little bit more thought than just what is ingrained in your head.

So you're saying a system Thousands of racing folk/clubs use doesn't work  . and then blame me for saying it does ? hahaha

FAAAAIRRyy land for you my friend . The Apprentice Claim System doesn't work either ?? lol . why do they have it then ? It's because it's a racing way to give the young jocks a chance , and the horse / owner some weight relief so they are a MUCH STRONGER chance of getting the WIn . Tried and Proven. I'm a trotting bloke and can see it Works. 

SO Is everyone ingrained in Head like me ? hahaha you're a funny bugger. Quite frankly would be better if you didn't respond as you suggest , as you're a century or 2 behind the times unfortunately . WFA rules !!!! lol. 

Great to see we moved on from barrier position to weight to try and get our horses beat.

Whatever Mardi or Pete says about the weight scale, it's just a Way to TRY and even the contest a Bit.

A TRIED and PROVEN method but if you want to say it doesn't work . bully for you. The racing industry employs it as a model every race day whether you like it or Not. 

A LOT of folk backed Cylinder in the Newmarket BECAUSE of the PULL in the Weights , including Richo and Many others , and they got 11-1 . I hate seeing champions beat so Alas didn't come to that party. 

2 hours ago, mardigras said:

In 1929, in the Caulfield Cup, the weight difference between the top and bottom weight was 16kg, and that was not excessive by any stretch. 

It's just a Way to try and give everyone an equal chance chance , based on horses previous performances. Isn't that just normal in Racing ???? every race day . you're in FAIRRRY LAnd if you don't recognize this . 

Of course EVERY KILO makes a difference. I don't ride but I know that is a FACT. look at the results some horses get with claiming apprentices as they work down through the claims. I did very well backing Poy, then Cartwright , then Gaudray , with their claims as they worked down form 4 kg to 1 kg off. 

I'm now looking for my next one . any tips Mardi ?? (Victoria please)  

28 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I ignore weight as the impact of weight in the scale used in Australasia is close to useless and has little to no impact on chance. Just another fairy tale punters have been told to believe - yet whilst weight may stop a train, 5-6 kgs on a horse does little. 

doubt that is true at all sorry Mardi.  the weights Definitely effect a horses chances, ( and have done since Phar lap and beyond) 

We just saw a prime example with your NZ star horse Imperatriz being beaten by the weight scale with Cylinder cruising on past. 

The weights handicap evened up the contest and the champion mare was beat. (If they had level weights I hazard a guess she would beat Cylinder)

so think you are in fairy tale land mate, as there are examples of that every week . and that one was just thrown in your face very recently.  

5 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Scooby??

sorry mate .had wires crossed 🙄. brain is not working properly lol ..Best of Luck to the Reapers this week . and was just seeing I drew Chief's mate Jack . Hope that is a good player I put on picture avatar. (Don't know who it is 😂 but let's hope he scores a ' try' against Jack lol. try and get a winner anyway 😂

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

It would seem like lunacy to play our triple joker against the 2nd top team, and lamplighter for much of the comp and deservedly so.  BUT, we actually beat you in the first round, so maybe not such a crazy idea

Well the Reapers were out-reaped last week on the score-board mate > 5 zip, by the tough Blue Collar workers  maybe the Reapers should stay behind the PJ red Finals Line like the factory does 😂, .... to try for some redemption/revenge in the PJ Presidents Cup ? 💰😎

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

Barry uses the pace of race and positioning information in his assessments. We don't all have to do the same thing.

Seems the best model to use. where you are in the run almost certainly effects your finishing position. 

your modelling on horse ability and rivals makes sense , but the ratings system(s) generally place/pits horses of fairly equal  ability against each other. and then are of course handicapped to get them even more level with proven criteria. (e.g mares weighted less, etc) 

All the horses racing at Saturday gallops metro racing are turned out in amazing order by terrific professional trainers and their dedicated strappers.  Some are being 'prepared ' for races further into their campaign, but generally All the Rivals have ability and are suitable. so is a tricky way to look at them for the normal observer.

I can look at a field and decide instantly of the prospects of your 'ability' runner from a combo of who is riding/driving and training it , (some you can instantly rate as a best prospect for the race you are looking at) ...along with barrier draw like in the Golden Slipper 😆😁🏆 ...and of course Where you might think they might lob in the running (super important ) 

The market is more for the sheep punters , trying to follow a money trail. Pretty deceptive at times it feels?  so I don't use market as a guide very often t all.  the tipping agencies who don't know a horses prospects just put "Watch the Market" by it. bit of a cop-out ?. but just shows they know No more than you or I. A horse doesn't know it's odds lol... so your system is probably better than market 'expectation'  method and Barry's is definitely better . Happy Punting !! (and/or racehorse supporting !! ) 

21 minutes ago, Hesi said:

usually influenced by barrier draw and the ability to therefore get a good position in the running

I found this to be critical in 75% of races I was in , occasionally you had a fast beginner drawn wide (who could deal with that problem so not an issue ) 

Gai and Bott have a fair few in the Slipper with some strong chances drawn 1. 2 and 3.  they might let Straight Charge cross them from wider ??  with noted front running jock Tim Clark up on top of it. gives a lovely 'Suck along' to the inside ones then ? i'm sure you'll agree? as will barry, curious and other data  men  

but will possibly/probably try and leave Switzerland 3 wide , for Jmac and Waller with him drawn 7  ? that's my plan anyway 😆😂 bet he wishes he drew 2 lol...

might be yodelling along yippppeee yiii yaaa  yippee yi yooo left out in the Alps...😉

2 hours ago, Hesi said:

You see LB, that is the point, people like Mardi have all the data and I don't see how anyone can make a case against it

It's a field of high priced 2 year olds . No slugs at all .  it's a big field the Golden Slipper too . Of Course the Winner can come from anywhere. (any Barrier) 

We All know that already. there's a bit of Luck in the running involved still. 

My case , that I mentioned , point 1/  Is IF You Had A PREFERENCE of What Barrier You would Like to draw in the GS (or any race for that matter)  . The Majority of Connections would select an Inside Barrier?.say from 1 -4 . ....( and NO , Thai is Not the case in the Flemington Straight six or whatever,  as it is a straight line ). 

AND 2/  if you did Draw an Inside Barrier (say 5 and in ) you are FAR more likely to land in a 'Prominent position' in the running. (going around a bend in a race) 

points 1 and 2 are better than anything Mardi is confusing himself with ..  

6 minutes ago, mardigras said:

However you have interpreted my post based on seemingly wanting to simply find the winner. That is something I am never looking to do

Yes. where you land in the running has a great Impact on your chances of winning. Therefore BARRIER draw is Critical . (to getting a good Pozie) esp trots as well as you and i know very well indeed. it's Not drastically different at the gallops . 

I thought what Max said above is very good. You do it by observation skills . Fireburn may of drawn 'one in her GS Win'  as Hesi has shown, but it came from a long way back .

I'm saying the chance of Lobbing handier , are greatly increased by drawing IN. (not just the Slipper, but most races) . you just can't afford to Gas your horse too much early or you don't have the finishing burst left , that the rivals with cover will have. just common observation and reality . no Data needed...

47 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I'd say barrier is meaningless in the Golden Slipper outside of the particular preference of each particular horse - and you wouldn't look at one race being separated out from others anyway. Wide barriers win, as do inner barriers. 

If barrier was as important in defining chance as being made out, I would expect it would be inconceivable to win overall, when 100% ignoring such a factor.

geez mate .over a sprint distance at Rosehill it would be way better to draw in closer than the outside barriers. You don't need 'Data' that everyone keeps waffling about to tell you this. people can use OBSERVATION skills from all the races that are run , to 'Work out ' the chances of where they might lob in the running.

Gai Waterhouse tries to by-pass this by sending Most of her runners forward at a great rate of knots early , no matter what the barrier draw. No Data needed. just watching her horses go tells the story.

The Golden Slipper is a 2 year old race. They're just learning . If you draw inside you potentially cover LESS ground than someone Caught wide OR having to improve wide as they do the home turn . yes?  

an inside draw horse might have to run 1.9.5 time to win the Slipper , while the outside draw ones might have to break 1.9 for the 1200m. a big ask for youngsters .

Give me the INSIDE draw ...anyway.. anyday  ..any race  anytime.. i'll have the wide draw runners 'working' harder lol.   

8 minutes ago, Globederby19 said:

Pride of Jenni, what a run. Demolition job.

The modern day Vo Rogue , and she is just getting better and better. What a great Win 🏆

5 minutes ago, PWJ said:

Gordy and Craig scored in the first and went to the pub - can someone call them back as they look likely to decide this one

Gordy might be behind the couch already. Isn't that his usual spot as you get into the Final leg ?

25 minutes ago, PWJ said:

1976 - did not complete the course

Now where did my horse go? who put that hedge there ?  

14 minutes ago, PWJ said:

Sorry LB, only just seen this. It has been a busy week. That is old Siegfried. Won a bunch of races for Toby Edmonds but nothing major. He is beating Diamond Fund at the Gold Coast in that photo

Yes that is our horse . Didn't win as much as I thought initially . 9 from 43 starts . so a bit tough for the NZ folk here.

The interesting bit of Trivia was Conrad SIEGFRIED,  the KAOS man in famous TV comedy Get Smart was only in 14 of the 138 episodes filmed of Get Smart.  seemed like a Way LOT more ?? .  One of the funniest TV Villians ever . most famous quote >>  " This is KAOS, we don't Do That here " 😁

Just now, Dancing Show said:

A Jim Byrne / Toby Edmonds combo 🙂 

yep. Pretty sure he had 5 cracks on Magic Millions day across 5 years. Is a handsome Chestnut too 🥰.

Captain Ray at KAOS HQ would nail this one . They might be too tricky for PJ at CONTROL HQ. 

Ride your horses hard tomorrow Hesi mate , to try and beat this Grim Lot of selections . there is a BRIGHTSIDE today though 😆

R1)  1 - 3
R2)  4 - 7
R3)  5 - 10
R4)  1 - 15  BB
R5)  2 - 5
R6)  2 - 5      
R7)  4 - 10
R8)  1 - 3
R9)  1 - 6
R10) 8 - 13   BB

Watch out the Lightning don't get ya Hesi . Best of luck with your selections ..

Thursday Trivia for you PJ. A tough one ?  Who do we have here? 

Clue : With the No mates v Kaos Clash on this weekend , this horse might Not be supporting your Team PJ. 

2 hours ago, Hesi said:

I note your own form has dropped off substantially from the Lucky 7, when you were on fire, why is that

Never had much form Hesi mate lol . PJ just won't put Menangle up on the raceboard for me to get some form 😂. so have to linger at the back of the pack in this strong PJ line up..... but do Think we got the Presidents Cup with Chief's is about the form level 😅. so Maybe Meet the Reapers in a Presidents Cup 🏆 in this Comp ?? unless you can fire the lads up a bit and 'Reaper Up'  a Win or 2 in the near future to get in the Top half.....  😉

The boys are not swinging the Sythe blade hard enough maybe ?   You better show em' how it's done young fella 🏇🏇🃏  warm that joker up 🔥⚡ don't let the cricket play on your mind or anything , what went wrong 😁🍻🏏

23 hours ago, PWJ said:

REAPERS (6th) vs MAX FACTORY (8th)

Looks Like VC and SS are preparing Hesi for the run home , when he realises the Factory are Winning the Match-up on Saturday , and he won't make the Finals ? 😁

23 hours ago, Hesi said:

Pretty much all over I would say

Done and Dusted 🏆. Captain Pat the winning runs. He's turning into one of the best Captains Australia ever had at controlling the play/ Situation .. Who needs Warner anymore  . loan him to the Blackcaps at reduced rates? 😉

Time for a Sing-Along after that impressive Test Hesi . Here's one for you mate. (Bruce singing about baseball , but that's also a hit the ball and take run game , so close enough 😂😂 ..  good little song for after the cricket (and Sat maybe 😅🏇)