karrotsishere

Oh my. Watched race. No excuses. May have to concede defeat here.

What a quinella. Big win by an outsider. 

Did more research, check out video. Its Jollimont crossing Sooner the Better at start from wide. STB had pole. Jollimont got 2nd in G1 behind DSD. Actually had Jollimont stayed on rail til end prob would of won. So if they on Jollimont chose to push the button he can go early to lead. Altho in saying that you dont want to gas yourself early too much, look at what happened to Copy That when Nicolas Cage came out too & they speed dualed for too long. Was enough to take edge off Copy That. But thats prob his best chance top 3 chance oppose going back. With RP in trail. Or RP could retake lead, if hasnt gone to hard earlty. It pushes Merlin 3 back & RP & Jollimont fight out finish lead/trail.

Looking at RPs time last start 3.17.7 still fastest horse that race even with tiring. Jollimont 3.18.2 Bear in mind RP galloped at start (Jollimont had a clean get away). RP took 2 corners 3 wide & sat parked last lap. As well as was in running lane all of race. On a wet good track & lots of runners to get around. 

To put in perspective. Copy Thats NZ record stand 2700m 3.16 same track Hot & T time 2nd same race was 3.17.6. Copy That a superior horse over RP stepped lightening fast & only took 1 cnr 3 wide. Got a drag into race at end, was on rail for 1/2 of race on a fast track. Was at peak fitness. 1 start prior NZ Cup. Hot & T stepped good & same as Copy That. With alot less horses to get around.

Prior record holder 2700m stand Triple 8 3.17.2 (2019), prior that Vincent 3.19.2. Tried to find another horse running same as RPs time last start 3.17.7 over stand 2700 & struggled to, hence checked records. 

https://harness.hrnz.co.nz/gws/ws/r/infohorsews/wsd06x?Arg=hrnzg-Ptype&Arg=RaceVideo&Arg=hrnzg-RacehdrID&Arg=A1CE7BB7-2CB4-43DB-9832-DC9371D9E422&Arg=hrnzg-rSite&Arg=TRUE

Happy Anzac day,

Goodie RP has new driver in CD with ace draw. Gets his chance to shine. Altho not ideal distance but quite frankly I see no excuses. Should be fit now. 

Wonder how this race will roll. From memory Alex miles hit 1st cnr quick. Hard to cross if drawn 5 & further out. Hey Lightening & Globe be neat to see in Jollimont (4) use that Lou high speed to cross, RP take a nice sit & they fight out the finish.

Ps could Merlin or DSD win from RPs position on their 3rd start back at Camb on a wet track?

If so, then they are horse to beat. If not then they are the competition. 

42 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

nice . yeah Carter pretty experienced now. he could drive them all even better than B.O . Carter was driving Krug well and quite a few others. Have you seen the 'Adore Me' filly go? is really wracking up a few wins for Dalgety's team.

Blair should be driving a few of his own (training/owning) to keep him motivated and attached and not just doing 'driving fees',  nearly all the pro drivers in Nz and Aus have that extra achievement of 'doing their own' which really helps with focus .

What did you think of Jolimont 🥰 ? very nice Sweet Lou horse. Mark had him cruising 💰. Arna D had big team in tonight and she prepares them very well 

Umm yes please CD. A young gun. Feel will do the horse better, perhaps connect better esp with stand starts. Try a change when not getting the desired result. Why not. Cant hurt. Thats all Ill say. 

Well done Jollimont. Go the Lous.

Max wins. Whoop whoop whoop. Havent checked full results. Congrats.

Intel is in. 50m off last horse in pack at start makes it tough. Can we please get a new driver in CD.

Still on RB.

Intel is in. Absolutely not.

Amazing nite Im hearing. 

Taken all feedback onboard from last year.

A great time nite Im hearing. No complaints. Very very postive feedback. As Rusty & I predicted a couple years ago. Look out NZ Cup this could surpass you. Esp once new development is done. 

Ok here goes with race prediction. Did base it off fast track, but looks like rain. Which would take the speed out of some & completely change things.

Dont Stop Dreaming, crosses Kango, Speak the Truth comes buzzing over, now I was going to say & crosses or puts enough pressure on for DSD to take a trail. But with the rain it will be much harder to do so so this may not happen now. Scenerio 1 is he finds lead & scenerio 2 is he doesnt.

Merlin sees speed inside & outside so doesnt blast the arm, looks to get into running line somewhere. Mach Shard goes forward. Self Assured gets a run thru from DSD. Key here is for Old Town Road go out & cross down quickly infront of him. But Dickey wants to use his high speed for 1 run at them so eases him into running line Self Assured then takes up a position ahead of Old Town Road. Better Elipse makes a move forward during race to give cover is parked likely Mach Shard or Speak the Truth if STT doesnt find lead as per scenerio 2, 3 back outer is Self Assured scenerio 1 or 4 bak if Dont Speak truth doesnt make lead S2. Merlin & poss Sooner the Better get on train forward. Depending when Better Eclipse gets to parked during race will depend on whether he hands parked spot up. 

Kango sits on fence either 3 back S1 or trail if Speak the truth doesnt cross S2, if doesnt cross will be intially parked Speak Truth til cover comes quickly. South Coast Arden also be on fence 3 or 4 back. Sooner the better could duck back to fence early to be 4 back or 5 back fence. 

DSD has best odds of winning as will be likely either lead or trail as per either S1 or S2.

Lets see what happens.

1, 2, 3,

3, 7, 9

1, 3, 4 BB R3

3, 4, 9

1, 4, 5

2, 3, 4

5, 7, 14

2, 9, 11 BB R8

1, 2, 7

Gosh made my selections based on a fast fine day weather. But seeing its going to be not so good. May make things interesting. Forgot to do a BB. So quickly added now. 

Here is RPs start just prior NZ Cup last year. He started off 10m against FFAers mid size field. He settled last & looped field to sit parked on slushy track. Got 4th. But while not winning had the fastest time of all. So he can do it tough. Which is why I think Fri he can win. He was at peak fitness here tho. He only needs to improve a tad this year & with Akuta out of it. Hes a good chance NZ Cup. 

23 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

That's good Karrots . it's a hard race to win though and usually the Best in the nation will win it each year. (or run 2nd like Akuta) . hard to see the Pub being in the top 6 in nation.. and they didn't even bother putting Self Assured in it (NZ Cup) last year , and so he Won the Nz FFA on Showday instead 3 days later , to defend his crown in that race which he did at great odds too for the 2nd year running. Hat-Trick in Nov ? 

A solid chance in The Grin Race this Friday too. Self Assured having won the first one 2 years ago already.

Anyway can't wait to see them go !! . The country Cup will see your mate the 'RePub'  stride out against JOLIMONT . don't hold your breath on a win, with the Champ Marky Boy Purdon , driving the 'Jolly' good  horse lol.😅  (and has a couple of Arna stable-mates to help him along too ) 😁😉🌟

Had a bit more of a look & study, would like to see RP go up to R110 & maintain it this year. Thats a couple of wins & then hold rating.

Starting to think he should be winning Fri. With a good clean start he should latch on quick enough to pack. Can take a breather, then loop them & push onto lead. Prob be 6 in running line to loop, but has class to. Will have the respect to press onto lead. From there hard to get past him. Jollimonts 1st stand start & they have him on Unruly. 

Go RP & Go Jollimont (Lou). Good to have a couple of horses to follow this year!

23 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

Sixty nine starts , sixty times in the money, thirty wins , beaten all comers in Aussie and here since he was a 3yr old , over just about all distances.  In my time he is one of the best to stick his head through a bridle. 

Thats some amazing stats alright.

On 4/7/2024 at 8:55 PM, Globederby19 said:

Yes, but settled on the fence quite quickly and did nothing the whole trip  as the others all went around and tried to get nearer. He was entitled to have a sprint left after that cushie run and most of the others were tiring by then.  He will have to step, otherwise he is toast.

Hahaha hehehe, but he ran past many others on rail infront of him including BD Joe. And he was held up as tiring runners were dragging him back, while top 2 skipped away.

So if he didnt botch start & had a cushy run & had his sprint left as he did. If he had of lead or trailed then he could of won. See how he won in latest video I posted from trail. 

He will be a year older. So good age. Potentially stronger. I like him, Im sticking with him as my pick in Nov. I think Self Assured who is a goodie & NZ Cup winner, gets allegies that time of year, plus will be older too. Plus hes had a bit of racing, as has Merlin & DSD. Whereas RP is just coming back. The 3 later mentioned & others will have been up for a long time. 

9 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

A handy effort Karrots, but has he stepped up ? He hasn't won this year . and just one Win Last year ( when trailed the leader and passing laned)

I don't think he can win Friday either. 35m be too far back for him ? in a country Cup championship.

The Sweet Lou is in that we were telling you about JOLIMONT. Arna once again putting Mark aboard again steering . What a Winning Combo That is !!! 🏆

 

You & Globe are cracking me up hahaha hehehe. Great banter guys. 

Ok so "but has he stepped up". My reply is from, what? he beat Akuta (after working to find front early & he was a rating 100. (Pretty good UDR too 32 starts 14 wins, 5 places, 2 thirds). Just dropped to 98 hence he has to give your fav Jollimont 25m & others 35m. If you take a look at his rating you see how he progresses thru the grades consistantly up & up & up. Til hit 100. In his only 2 starts this year (rebuilding fitness) he dropped 2 points. 

If small field Id say he could win. But its a bit big to get around all at Camb while hes still building fitness. Altho Jollimont may botch start & he could tag on quickly to 10m horses if he makes a quick get away. So you never know. Id say Messenager is more the goal. Key positive is stand start practice & long distance practice. 

RP winning after making a clean fast beginning. Beating Akuta & others. 

Ill have a go.

Last years NZ Cup. Republician Party was last with 600 to go, 2nd last with 400 to go, as a result of galloping away & settling miles off leaders. He comes 3, then 4 then 5 wide, final result 5th in a field of 15. He ran past many horses & coming wide.

NZ TAB have him as 3rd equal fav for 2700m Messenger & 3rd fav for 3200m Auckland Cup. Must see him as a stayer like me & factoring in fitness rebuild.

Copy That another example of rebuilding fitness, went on to win 2nd NZ Cup. I read here Self Assured another fitness rebuild to win FFA last year. Picking RP will be same.

I can put Lightening back down for DSD.

Oh yes Millwood Nike. Forgot about her & also I made mistake Lightenig said he liked Jollimont (Lou) not DSD for NZ Cup.

Rusty - Millwood Nike

Lightening - Jollimont

Globe - Self Assured

Karrots - Republician Party

Ill do a The Race prediction on here too once field is out. Think I gave a pre race commentary how field position & race placing last year & it was exactly as predicted. With Maxi saying impressive hehe. Prob wont be able to it 2 times in a row. But will have a crack. 

Other people can put down their predictions too for The Race & pre race commentary. 

Just checked Merlin, (he is available for someone to select NZ Cup) & spotted he had 5 months off then when he came back was building fitness. Got 3rd, then another (3rd by 8 lenghts! to DSD & a Grimson runner ex Telfer), then bang, bang, bang winning, once fitness was at peak.

Kango will be replacement for The Race for The Doo. Kango ran a nice 4th. So great for connections. So maybe as they might draw 11 in field IF so would mean RP would be E1. 

Camb is such a funny lil track & I prefer RP for NZ Cup. He hasnt been at full fitness, like Merlin wasnt as per my example 😀

Great we have some early selections NZ Cup picks

Globe - Self Assured

Lightening - Dont Stop Dreaming

Karrots - Republican Party

Closer to time if your runner doesnt start can pick another. A friendly reminder Grimson runners if any are void for this fun comp. 

Where is Swayzee? Still on that extended vacation. 

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

.Ok re tonight. Even if he doesnt win tonight Camb is such a front runner, rail bias track, so cant really judge tonights race comparing to Addy NZ Cup track unless straight to lead, but then if so he gains the advantage. 

Hes gaining fitness, so will take improvement.

Missed race but watched replay. As soon as RP didnt keep going forward at start & ended up 4 back running line it was over. As per my post & also on Gallops post Camb front runner rail bias. Lead 2nd, trail 4th, 3- back unlucky 5th. Winner was up near front parked. Race was mile. 

Cant be building fitness & go 3 wide entirely around final corner without cover over mile against stiff opposition & win unless you are a Grimson runner with endless stamina. 

So yip still on RP for NZ Cup. Go RP.

34 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

He's about to race tonight in an hour or 2 at a Cambridge meeting  in a group 2 Karrots.

Republican Party is up against some recent Aussie winners and place-getters in Merlin, Sooner The Better, South Coast Arden, Don't Stop Dreaming as well as the old champ Self Assured and the local lad 'Old Town Road' 

Will be interesting to see if you change your pick for the Cup  🏆 😉after this race 😆 

Hehe there you are Lightening. Wont be changing my NZ Cup pick, unless he is injured. Im not counting any of Grimsons as starters even if they start. They r void for this banter fun RP pick. 

Ok re tonight. Even if he doesnt win tonight Camb is such a front runner, rail bias track, so cant really judge tonights race comparing to Addy NZ Cup track unless straight to lead, but then if so he gains the advantage. 

Hes gaining fitness, so will take improvement.

Cant wait for the NZ Cup. Go Rupublician Party. 

On 3/25/2024 at 6:53 PM, karrotsishere said:

Oh hey Happy yes. I posted on here a while back well last year when I heard via the gossip tables that the $51 million sale went thru Glen Eagle. If you google Glen Eagle it shows pix. Go under property. It shows them. They look amazing! Be an asset to area. Aussie company. Sale went thru last year. Hence ATC can afford the Golden nite ot whatever its called $1 mil nite.

Also heard just today. All things moving forward re HOF. 

I hear Mr B Litcher is doing an amazing job! That he has gone above & beyond. His vision for this is what it should be. 

Ok have to update this to get it right. So the $100 million sale for Puke was why they ok to do Golden nite. $50 mil sale is to pay off debt. Sorry I edited some of my last post as wasnt sure I was allowed to say yet re HOF info. But hear its all going well. 

Gosh that land Alex P sits on is so prime from what I hear. Dont quite think racing people really understand or appreciate how prime it is nowadays & how incredibly fortunate Harness racing is to have it! Altho I have no idea how much they own if any anymore. How incredibly sad. 

People Im talking to say they feel like a minority in Auckland now. Immigrants are the majority (if you start getting out of your bubble). Auckland is a very different beast nowadays. Forget the term JAFFA. Its more like pick out the Kiwi. (Of course trotting as is an older generation is kiwis).

No predictions yet ok Im still on RP. So he is not in The Race. How odd!! Altho looks like he's building fitness. Maybe a chance at getting as a scratching. In saying that Camb is such a tricky track where draw matters. Good chance for the race with a good draw (if gets in), but my preference for him is over distance over the younger new comers to open class Merlin & DSD. Hes beaten Akuta before. Have they? Umm no. Blew start last year Cup to run a good 5th or 6th. Nod get him practicing, stand start matters. Need it to gun to lead & win NZ Cup.

Btw where is Cast No Shadow, back in thr Shadows suddenly from a sudden raise from nothing to winning G1 to just as quick nothing again. 

.

5 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

that sort of thing started a Big fist fight last year in the bar at Albion 😂 . Just after Swayzee defeated the current Interdominion and Miracle Mile Champion LEAP TO FAME) in a group 1 at Brisbane in July. 

I don't think Grimson was giving the answer to the questioning bloke ..lol. 

Haha yes. Its funny as people in private talk and at gossip tables, so much more wayyyyyy more than these forums. And they say so MUCH more. These forums are so mild! Hope ur well me mate Lightening.