curious

47 minutes ago, Our Maizcay said:

that's true but nor have I seen any data from those who assert the opposite, and I'm no statistician but I suspect your sample of 10 or 20 Slippers probably doesn't qualify

and it seems there might be two different arguments going on here

one is whether barrier draws have an effect on the outcome of a race (or many races) and the other is whether barrier draws affect the price more than they should

No argument. They do and they do.

Yes. That conversation has been a bit of good craic but clearly some people can't be helped, especially when they think their opinion is more valuable and useful than solid data. So, as you suggest, I'm happy to walk away and keep taking their money. Someone has to fund the bookies and the racing industry after all.

Totally agree with Freda's comments though and a diligent punter could possibly take advantage of that by finding horses that have generally recorded their best performances from outside gates. In fact, we had one of those a couple of years ago and I hung out Wednesday mornings of race week hoping for an outside draw to be posted. That horse won his best race from gate 18 at Riccarton over 1600m paying the highest tote win dividend of the season.

Freda's point was also made in the article I posted there where the author says, despite the data, "Each track, race and horse is a case by case basis, but having a default bias against wide drawn horses is detrimental to the goal of making profitable betting decisions."

The Members’ Council as at 31 July 2023,
comprised: Chair Jeff McCall (Southern
Region), Deputy Chair Geoff Vazey
(Northern Region), John Elstob (Northern
Region), Eliot Cooper (Central Districts
Region), Sam Trotter (Central Districts
Region), Simon Williamson (Southern
Region), Tony Pike (New Zealand
Trainers’ Association and New Zealand
Jockeys’ Association), John Thompson
(New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders’
Association), and Bernard Hickey (New
Zealand Thoroughbred Racing Owners’
Federation).

32 minutes ago, Buller Rep said:

If you are referring to Cameron George, he is appointed by the Members Council which is made up of people from Racing Clubs plus people from the thoroughbred sector groups such as the Trainers etc.

He is appointed as a director by the Members' Council but not as chair. He is elected as chair by the directors.

Worse, as usual with track issues there is no detailed report to the industry. The promised one for Hastings is yet to materialise.

7 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So you are saying they have been there for more than a season and not been able to be exterminated

I'm no expert but they should have been able to kill them between spring and now and they would have been evident in any core samples. My dad lived in fear of them as a farmer. Pretty sure there's also a long acting bacterial treatment too. If true, it's totally lax.

14 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Reading up about it, grass grubs, the larval form which do all the damage, last from March until June, so if they are talking about the ongoing issues not being able to be resolved, it can't be grass grubs

It'll be the issues they have caused since spring which will likely be patchy dead spots. Also, because they then burrow down and rehatch in the spring they are hard to kill at this time of year.

26 minutes ago, Turny said:

Feck me just goes from bad to worse

Are there any tracks in the country that are good enough to stage Group racing?

what a bloody fiasco

I agree. Can't they get a truckload of Neem granules in there if they want to be eco friendly at the same time? I can even keep the little buggers out of my lawn and I'm no green thumb.

Just by way of comparison, overseas online casino providers are paying GST of $37.5 million a year. So, NZ punters are losing 250 million a year on that gambling medium. I think that figure may have got mixed in with some of the claims about NZ racing's wagering losses to overseas bookies.

56 minutes ago, Hesi said:

1.  Can anyone explain the Trentham track.  Soft 7 yesterday and they raced as though it was a G4, not coming wide on the turn.  Jan 21 a S5 track and from R5 on they all come wide on the turn.  Jan 27 S6 and abandoned after R4

Isn't that because they've added irrigation so that the outside is watered to the same level as the inside, thereby taking away any outside advantage and mitigating the risk of it become slippery out there if they get rain on the day?

Oh yes, I see now. That's about right, maybe 57-58%.

Wouldn't that be the all racing code figure, not just the NZTR share?

10 hours ago, mardigras said:

Which means that not only are they paying a fee for bets placed on NZ racing by NZ punters, they also pay a fee for bets placed on NZ racing by non-NZ punters. Along with the Point of Consumption charges for bets originating in NZ. 

This has been around for quite a while - yet somehow De Lore didn't seem to know or bother checking.

Interestingly, in the course of investigating this, I came across the following in relation to the previously much discussed topic of the quantum of offshore betting by NZers:

“Offshore platforms who offer gambling on sports and race fixtures currently pay a Point of Consumption Charge of around $4 million per annum, that is returned to the sports and racing codes in New Zealand for community benefit and harm minimisation efforts,” Kieran McAnulty said.

Applying a bit of simple arithmetic based on the above 10% figure, that means that the total overseas sport and racing gambling spend by NZers is about $40m. From that, you would guess that the NZTR share of commissions, after expenses, is likely only just in 7 figures.

Just now, Hesi said:

Good work Curious, 2 fundamental and significant errors in his article.  I think you should inform Entain

Pretty confident that Entain can work that out for themselves. Not that a de Lore article could possibly hold much sway but for the naive at this point.

As expected, complete bs from de Lore. This prompt response from Tony Severinson, Head of Funding and Analytics, NZTR.

Bet 365, along with all other Australian Corporate Bookmakers, do pay Racefields fees to Racing NZ (via TAB NZ) for betting taken on NZ races. This commission is paid directly to the NZ racing code whose product is being bet on.

In addition, offshore betting providers are required to pay Point of Consumption Charges (POCC) to the DIA, set at 10% of Gross Betting Revenue of all bets placed with them by NZ residents. Racing NZ receives a quarterly payment from DIA for POCC, although no breakdown of the contributions from individual operators is available.

40 minutes ago, Hesi said:

All good.

I note de Lore talks about guaranteed payments of 150 mil per year for 5 years, but I thought it went up each year, to be 200 mil in year 5

From NZTR Strategic Funding Document

1) What is NZTR’s share of the MinimumGuarantee (MG) payment from Entain?

Entain’s MG commitment applies for the first five years of the agreement and starts at $150m per annum, rising each year thereafter (NB – if a ‘legislative net’ is implemented this would see an additional $15m added to the MG per annum from 2024/25)

Correct but you can't believe much that de Lore writes.

$170m for 2023/24 (+36% compared to current financial year)
$175m for 2024/25 (+40%)
$180m for 2025/26 (+44%)
$185m for 2026/27 (+48%)
$200m for 2027/28 (+60%)

I'd rather just do what any diligent journalist worth his salt (and I'm not referring to de Lore) would do and verify what he is reporting before he does so.

I have contacted both the DIA (as the designated authority) and NZTR to find out if it is true or not that Bet365 are not paying BIU or consumption charges as de Lore has claimed. I'll let you know if and when I get a response. It seems incomprehensible to me.

8 hours ago, slam dunk said:

I was finding it useful going back and seeing the horses selected including remembering my own. Also seeing how people played the challenge. Surprised it has been deleted.

Good question. It seems to be the week for disappearing threads, here and elsewhere.

I feel the pain! Looks like Amade was saying where the hell did they get this bloke from?

Spent 1900

Return 2075

Spent 1800

Return 1850

3 hours ago, Hesi said:

Anything to do I wonder, with the priority given in the allocation of funds from Entain towards mainly stake money and disregarding infrastructure of facilities, mainly tracks, when we have seen so many problems with tracks.  Problems too numerous to mention, that at the end of the day NZTR are accountable for, made George's position untenable

As many have alluded to, including George himself, punter confidence via track integrity is a key to wagering growth.

As I said, he who pays the piper plays the tune, and Entain have just played the Last Post on Cameron George.

Will Bruce Sharrock be next?

 

I like the guy. He was a good stipe. But what has happened under his rein at NZTR is not very flash.

1 hour ago, VC! said:

I imagine Cameron George’s work requirement’s at the Warriors has increased somewhat as probably has his pay packet Warriors already selling out their first two rounds at home, and strong whispers the Wah’s will be off to Vegas next year if that’s the case so will I 

Which casino are they going to?