curious

11 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Petra, has a ring to it lol

Petal was the give away I think 🙂

3 minutes ago, pete said:

Haha yes. There are some strange people on that site.

It was Waiuku which is south of Auckland.

He was also a very gifted racing journalist by all accounts.

Smoke Ring completed the Great Northern Hurdles/Steeples double in 1965.

Might have trained top 3yo Princess Patrice as well?

Was it Waiuk? or Waiuku? Think he won a few at the races there too didn't he?

Sounds like you might have had an overnight sex change Pete. If so, congratulations.

7 minutes ago, Our Maizcay said:

is that your barometer for a top meeting?

I for one won't be betting on it until the issues with it seem to be sorted.

1 hour ago, mardigras said:

I don't think you can look at times on this track compared to the previous track. This is a new track. If times are a measure - look at the supposed time at Riccarton of Madam Dubai over 1200m in 1.07.22

Times should not be an indicator of track performance. This track was having its second proper race meeting. And reports of slipping would be of more concern than any times they ran. 

The times overall suggest the track may run faster than the previous implementation. e.g Around 4% of horses to run at Ellerslie in the past over 1200 would break 1.09.5. 6 looked to have done that yesterday out of 34 starters.

Yes. And I'd say riders reluctant to change ground in the shifty conditions favoured the handy horses that had a straight run to the line.

7 hours ago, Hesi said:

Pendragon definitely slipped coming into the straight

This must all be very concerning after the money spent on this track, 15mm of irrigation overnight, then 'light' showers

Good pic. There was turf flying all over the place on that turn.

Looks like it worked well -not.

Spent 500

Return 1100

Ellerslie R5 1 Sharp 'N' Smart 50 win @19 Bet 365

Trentham R5 1 He's A Doozy 50 win @12.20 Ladbrokes

16 minutes ago, mardigras said:

"Of all the gear changes in racing, blinkers on the first time tend to have the most dramatic effect and if they turbo-charge Cool N Fast his $7 price could be the best value all night as, laziness aside, he ticks every other box."

That's the sort of nil and fallacious comment I'd expect from someone like Guerin. All helps distort markets though. I like that.

1 minute ago, mardigras said:

And even though I hate stats, here is one.

On average, around 1 in 10 horses appearing on a racetrack win. (based on around 10 starters per race).

Around 1 in 13 horses with blinkers on first time appearing on a racetrack win. 

What about blinkers off?

2 hours ago, PWJ said:

 The Kiwi may even take 2 to 4 years to be even accepted as a Listed Restricted black type race.

According to the Kiwi Ts&Cs, it will carry Restricted Listed status for the inaugural running in 2024. I assume that was previously confirmed with the Pattern Committee.

THE KIWI
Sponsored by NEW ZEALAND BLOODSTOCK
Registered name: Mufhasa Stakes
Pattern rating: Restricted Listed

48 minutes ago, PWJ said:

- No Group/Graded races should have any geographically-based conditions of entry in regard to the place of the horse’s birth, training or ownership.
 

The 4yo race does not have any such restrictions. It is open to all comers so, given the field quality this year, if that continues could be considered for pattern status in due course.

And the Thorndon was placed on alert last year. The Levin classic under warning and probably a goner from G1 status. It's hard to see why breeders would encourage anything that undermines these races, let alone the Derby when they are all struggling as it is.

8 minutes ago, Hesi said:

The 4-year-old million dollar race is not restricted to Karaka sales graduates.  Will that ever become a G1?.  The field is very good, because we had a vintage 3-year-old crop.

It could.

13 minutes ago, Hesi said:

But what are the criteria to achieve G1 status.  For a start any race that has restrictions based on where the horse was bought must rule it out, as G1 racing is about the best racing the best

Yes. It can't ever have Group status, let alone G1.

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

I'd love to see someone with access to the data, do a profit and loss summary for a meeting like this, in addition to the new Champions Day when it happens.  So much is being made of these days, the cost of them, negative or positive needs to be quantified.  I realise there will be intangible benefits to the racing and breeding industry that cannot be calculated such as all the publicity

So,

NBR(net betting revenue) tote

NBR fixed odds

Non-wagering income (hospitality, entrance fees etc)

Other income (sponsorship etc)

Less

Stake money paid (less sweepstake input)

Costs of running the day

 

 

 

That would certainly help make sense of the plan. Even to know the projections for that.

According to the documentation the Kiwi will carry black type - Restricted Listed as are the Karaka Millions.

A Guineas winner would surely become a prime target for slot holders wouldn't it?

Great thanks. Presumably similar to the latter if buying a yearling or horse to race?

39 minutes ago, pete said:

Super interesting stuff PJ. Thanks for this.

Yes, a big thank-you for that comprehensive and informative post PWJ.  I'm curious to know if you have an average Mickey for mares in a sale such as that Sydney Easter one, or a distribution curve? In other words what do you consider an acceptable Mickey for further consideration?

1 hour ago, Hesi said:

That is on the new Champions Day.  The rationale for switching the Railway was to get World Pool for Karaka Day 1

Yes. I'm not sure if they were talking about it for both days or not.

28 minutes ago, Hesi said:

I note from that list, that even though NZ has 'big' racing days with more than one G1 race, we have nothing on that list

I'm guessing that having the richest 3yo race in the southern hemisphere on the day would be the factor to change that. I can't place what I read or heard but from memory, having a G1 on the day meant that the world pool would take the whole day or more of it, not just the one race.

https://worldpool.hkjc.com/

9 minutes ago, mardigras said:

I think eligible - but my understanding was still only what are deemed worthy. Not all G1 days get World Pool inclusion. Or do I have that incorrect? Otherwise the original Railway date would have had that opportunity already.

I don't think the Melbourne Cup got World Pool status. And not all races on the day necessarily get World Pool inclusion. Caulfield Cup day had 3 races on the program I think.

Pretty sure I read somewhere yesterday that was the expectation. Whether or not it's been confirmed as part of their due diligence, I don't know.