Globederby19

Palmy Nth  26-3-24

R1  10  Alana   ( Luk Chin try's his hand at the course with a fairly weak field)   Last

R2  8   Castana   ( Shows promise , must be close in this)                                    6th

R3   8   Morere   (Needs a run from out there but closing in on first win)             4th

R4   5  Xcite Me   (My roughie)                                                                                  5th

R5  3  Carolina Moon    (Arna factor ,good draw , can double up)                         6th

R6   8    Village Rebel     ( Wide again but tightest assessed horse)                     4th

R7    3   Diamonds Are Forever  ( My BB)                                                                5th

R8   2   Rockafilly         (Likes it here, good draw)                                                   2nd last

R8    3    Baileys Pitch   ( On consistency alone and not a deep field)                   last

A pile of shiiite. None in the first 3.                       

Spent  $100    Return  Nil. 

Races 131  Wins 31   2nds  19  3rds 25

Overall  loss $136. 

Tokomaru Bay  .

1 hour ago, Lightning Blue said:

Jolimont will need more than David Butcher to get him past that lo

Maybe, maybe not. He is the least tried of that 3, albeit by a small margin, but ended up in some strong fields very early on and acquitted himself well with limited experience. He is on the improve, dramatically  . Some horses come to it a bit slower than others, and he wasn't that far short of the best last year. Im The Mighty Quinn ran just behind some very good horses when he was a 2 and 3yr old and won 6 races from about 24 starts without setting the world on fire, and then went Boom. Maybe biased a bit. 

1 hour ago, karrotsishere said:

A nice horse. Globe educated his mate about Sweet Lou. Globe had value figured out.

Speaking of Jolimont, when one considers his time over 2200 winning in 2.38 and change without trying, and compare that with Don't Stop Dreaming,s time of 2.42, both on fast tracks he looks a very good horse in the making. 

52 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

 

Not sure what you mean re hasnt covered as many mares this time in. H

My bad Karrots, I think I was referencing the two previous years. And yes it is very heartening to see him realising the potential. Dropping winners all over the place,  his winners to starters is fractionally over 50% and interestingly after looking up stats Sweet Lou,s are winning once every 6 races for starters. 

44 minutes ago, karrotsishere said:

Hope Grimson doest come with a donkey.

The feeling is mutual there. Something doesn't smell right with that barn.

NRL is by far a better game to watch, and has been for quite a while .  My beloved Manly have started well, but it is early doors yet. 

22 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

And your old mate Self Assured is always an Auckland Cup hog too lol.

They are taking him along quietly, they didn't rush him out and only pulled the plugs halfway down the straight. A live chance this old warhorse, and could get reasonable odds again. And I will be honest I have doubts about Sooner The Bettor running the extreme distance. He is quick over the shorter distances but has never won past 2200.  

9 hours ago, karrotsishere said:

Sweet Lou fans, he is now the most in demand sire in NZ.

He is, but hasn't covered as many Mares this time in. Still flying though. 

8 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

If you were a JOLIMONT owner  (there's 5 persons in total actually )

Sorry to disappoint you LB, but I very much doubt Tommy would ever do that. Arna picked the horse out for them in the first place. 

10 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

could work out that COLD CHISEL was a huge chance in the Group 1 Great Northern Derby

He was a dead cert from that draw LB with his ability. I prefer to leave Harness out of this continuing conversation, finding value  imho is many fold more difficult with so many variables in a Harness race, even allowing for barrier positions. 

7 hours ago, Hesi said:

Princess Kate

Never have been a fan of the Royals , but I really feel for her husband . He lost his Mother in brutal circumstances now the prospect of losing his wife (potentially). I hope the media have enough integrity leave them alone and let them deal with what is ahead .

1 hour ago, Howard Atkinson said:

If he stays awake long enough to get past the first three paragraphs.
From memory he's not getting any younger, and sustained concentration to the job at hand is not easily achieved ! 😁

Cheeky bugger  zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

19 minutes ago, PWJ said:

I thought someone said weight did not matter 😎

It doesn't PJ, haven't you been listening. ? 🤣

Doesn't look like the weight worried Imperatriz  , nor the draw. 

1 hour ago, ngakonui grass said:

warriors should have put that game against the raiders to bed in the 1st half.

Yeah, not the complete package yet, but encouraging signs. Ziggy will be happy. 

5 minutes ago, pete said:

Bloody hell Rees where did that come from?

He He He, he says gleefully with a somewhat cynical tone. " They dont like it up em Sgt Mannering" 🤣

Cmon Smiler  expecting a big score for top of the ladder expert 🤣

R1  2-8

R2  1-2

R3  2-3

R4  4-13 BB

R5  1-10

R6  4-5

R7  1-16

R8  5-8

R9  1-2

R10  5-16 BB

Go well guys

47 minutes ago, pete said:

Of course, you can believe what you choose to.

A few flat earthers on here I suspect. 

34 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

I see you are still trying to work it all out Mardi .

No he has worked it out already LB, which is why he is a very successful punter. 

12 hours ago, Lightning Blue said:

r divorce after 30 years too .  so it is a sad day indeed 

Never nice is it. Take care from all of us bud, and keep posting. 👍

15 hours ago, Buller Rep said:

Unbelievable!

I am dumbfounded with that stupid response. 

Really. Each to their own. Happy punting Buller, but do remember most of us in some capacity have been involved in the racing industry . You believe whatever you want. 

1 hour ago, pete said:

He looks mighty displeased.

Thats funny, he looks like a really pissed off Liverpudlian about to Liverpool kiss someone. Hope its not Jammo. 

1 hour ago, Lightning Blue said:

Apologies mate . I don't have that answer . I recently applied for the Queensland Harness Racing Handicapper job ,fairly straight forward National Ratings stuff to handicap the Pacers and Trotters... but got knocked back 😰 , rather unfortunately as would of been good at that.. At least got an Interview I spose.🙄

Good for you bud, would have been a lovely job.  Did they give a reason ?. 

Alex Park 22-3-24

R1  7  All Cashed Up  ( Xtra distance suits and should be thereabouts)                                                     1rst  $3.30

R2  6  Beta Prepare    (Half to Jolimont, Donnelly Factor , due)                                                                  4th

R3   5  Yourtheonethatiwant   ( Open field but looked classy at the trials)BB                                            1rst  $2.90

R4   9  Jolimont               (Needs some breaks from out there , but class should take him a long way)    1rst  $2.10

R5   2    Demon Blue       (Sticking with after last run, and has draw over favs out wide to work with, Purdon Barn)  3rd

R6    5  Ruby Roe    (Great first up effort from way back, Nathan on fire and has beaten fav)                                  --

R7    1   Cold Chisel    ( Shouldn't have to do any work from here, the favs out wide will)                                  1rst    $3.50

R8   4  Old Town Road    (  Heart says Self Assured, head says otherwise, although a wide field he will be fitter)  --

R9   8  Iron Brigade   ( A nice Art Major, chance despite draw at odds)                                                               4th

Best Bet in R3  No 5. Missed race ten out.

4 wins  1 third  Spent $100   Return  $119  Profit $19

Races 122   Wins 31  2nds 19  3rds 25

Overall loss $36

41 minutes ago, Buller Rep said:

Are you telling me that on the same day she still would have won the race with 5kg more?

How would you know, ? probably, probably not. Hypothetical question, unanswerable in the extreme. Does this strengthen your argument for  weight making a difference, I doubt it. 

45 minutes ago, Lightning Blue said:

what I mean ,..but your so ''Engrained '' in your ways

Yes he is , but that "engrained " was worked out over many years and logged ,and stands apart from your engrained thoughts, and most punters. . He makes money by finding value , over a period of time which includes losing quite a bit at times but which realises a profit ( probably a handsome one) over time.  And he does this without all the preconceived ideas that you lot have about weight, barriers etc. The operative word here is VALUE.

Some on here have been indoctrinated so heavily it would take a debrief by the CIA to change. .

So he can't give you any tips LB unless you want to spend a lot/lose a lot?,  but still make a profit. 

As far as Trots go , from my perspective it is way too complicated to apply the same rules, and too many permutations in transit in a race to be even remotely confident. Thieves on wheels comes to mind.

Interesting listening to everybody's opinion on this, as long as we all agree to disagree and retain some sort of civility.