Sandpiper

Good cosy win and the decent form wins out. Pretty sick to have missed the 11/1 on Dee And Gee earlier in the week. As I said on the other thread on changing from futures to FF its half that and it I end up with it against me. You just cant build a book on the TAB market though and thats all there is. The exact same thing re price actually happened with Gorbachev in Wlg Cup. Price halved on opening of FF from 30/1. Would have preferred them to go a better pace. On first viewing he first 5 wouldnt have changed much regardless. Enjoy whatever harness and other things are going on in cup week.

Insane price on Loire. One for the tote watchers for sure being 17/1 for 2 days and drifting late. She was well onside for me thankfully. And also gave me thrill with a possible 6 figure multi into the cup. I was sorry for the big push on J Eccles to have missed although its really crazy to smash her price given the expected tempo. Travelling Light I never expected to give up the lead once she got there easily. Kali gawked around I guess had enough at the 1400 no real surprise didnt like the mile and a rough trip. Cup week is always a good week.

Who needs leisure time when you can go out buying more junk

Aalaalune must be being saved for the levin classic 🙂 Winners from the draw Aretha (2), Loire (8), Travelling Light (9). No concerns about in race position for them. Kali (12) could try to sit the outside on TL and get first jump. If they try and get cute on TL who knows what may happen. Expect they will act accordingly and aim to have her 1 x 2 at the bend. Possibly a bit of a traffic jam as many seek that spot without being brave enough to join the lead. Loire still each way value. Can't see her outside top 5.

Dee And Gee now 5.50 from 12. Didnt notice any price movement before the draw today tho. I think the TAB do a general market review at FF time. Kaharau nice warmup today. I cant defend Felaar or CS at these prices Max. Owen Patrick might not be a dead set stayer but he shapes ok and bred ok for it imo and now 50/1 after drawing well from 40/1 should be up in the van so that'll do nicely. Can afford to be wrong a lot at 50s. Cant knock Gorbachev at 6.50 proven like you say and rails run guaranteed now from 4.

The annual dollop of stayer pudding at Riccarton is here. It might not be a michelin star degustation, always welcome nonetheless. Dee And Gee and Felaar look set set to run a race and hard to make a case for a length of two either way between them. Dee And Gee should be shorter, 4th in a strong Akl Cup, 2nd in Wellington Cup, 54kgs here, excellent in Metrop, not sure what more she has to do to be respected. Felaar - the race comments say he loomed up in the Metrop. Is that the good kind of loomed up where he is trained to the minute for this, or the bad kind where he is a touch ungenuine? I'll say we can expect to see a better finish from him on Saturday, and overall a few lengths improvement on last year after a more targetted preparation. Nymph Monte is short considering his inconsistency (and his record of showing up on the big day is no better). Duplicity surprised me last Wellington Cup not being able to go with the front two at the finish and it's twice now out of 3 times at the 2 miles he hasn't finished it off like a proper stayer. The time that he did it was Bizzwinkle's dawdling affair. So I'm open to the idea he doesn't quite get a strong 2 miles and may leave him out altogether (I won't be betting at all if the tempo looks poor). He absolutely deserves respect but hey if you can pot the fav that's usually a fun thing to go ahead with. Gorbachev has had a beautiful couple of leadup runs. I'm open to him improving at the trip a little. It's marginal. Same age and miles on the clock as Dee And Gee. The best 2 mile form here is brought by Jacksstar, giving weight away and placing in the 2017 Akl and Wellington Cups. He'll be in all my exotics. Picked up the Awapuni Gold Cup this year but who knows whether and how much his age and niggles will prevent a good run this time. Soleseifei is one I had expected to improve into the top few NZ 2 milers by now. She hasn't got there yet and she's all wrong at the weights here. A better spread of weights at the Wellington Cup would be more her go, that's not to say she couldn't go close here off a good tempo. Chief Sequoyah has some merit stepping up in trip for the first time after only 16 starts. Not many horses have their second win in an open handicap as he did. Pretty weak affair that. If the plan is to lead again I'll dodge him, otherwise he could be one to sneak into 3rd or 4th. Not value to win at 40/1, just a first four booster. Owen Patrick stands out at a price. Originally a Derby prospect, dead set stayer up in trip after 25 starts having won or placed in far more than his fair share over shorter trips. Yes, there's no sparkling form there, he doesn't gap fields he just sits in the pack and relentlessly grinds. He can properly outstay most of this lot on Saturday. The step 2200 -> 3200 isn't ideal, he must be rock hard fit though and is running at his peak. I think he has the attributes to be far nearer the top of the market. Korakonui is right in this profile wise. Is being asked a lot at the weights which the Feilding Gold Cup underlines where she was bested by Duplicity getting weight and while Duplicity is too short, it's hard to make a case for Korakonui to be less than double his quote. Others don't immediately appeal, open to persuasion. Waiting on final field, track conditions etc. Some TAB prices: Duplicity 4.5 Felaar 6 Gorbachev 6 Nymph Monte 8 Dee And Gee 12 Ripcord 12 Soleseifei 12 Korakonui 18 Kaharau 21 Sulcifera 21 Al Haram 26 Humble Pie 26 Jacksstar 26 Diorissimo 31 Chief Sequoyah 41 Dragon Storm 41 Nomen Ludi 41 Owen Patrick 41 Pamir 41 Sweet Treat 41

I just drew the line at the 40/1 shots above out of laziness. I would take even money for her to finish ahead of Bronte Beach for sure. Not Hot Tap. Have defended Aalaalune in the past. The problem now is the massive crick in the neck she must have after gawking at the stands while crabbing left yesterday! It's not a mug field. Reckon you'll get better than 60/1 on the tote come game day.

Aalaalune to do a Gaultier and make a mockery of the universe

Bit more intrigue here than the boys version. Some TAB prices: Kali 3.00 Travelling Light 3.40 Bavella 7.00 Jennifer Eccles 9.00 Bella Mente 14.00 Karalino 14.00 Avadane 18.00 Flaunting 18.00 Folk Dress 18.00 Aretha 26.00 Loire 26.00 Riva Capri 26.00 All About Magic 41.00 Cautiously looking at the shape of the race a week out, no natural leaders. There are a number of runners that race handy and have previously taken up the slack and led a race before the turn - Travelling Light (once from 3), Aretha (once from 6), Bavella (once from 7), All About Magic (once from 11) and Hot Tap (twice from 9). And some jockey may decide it's time to shoot for the red bib. Overall though slow to moderate tempo. The more staying types like Bronte Beach, Flaunting, Folk Dress, Hot Tap would have to win against the race tempo. And with Travelling Light a handy runner from any draw with a super finishing 300 - enough to put 2-3 lengths into a filly as good as Bavella - that all begins to be very optimistic. Jennifer Eccles is borderline in this category, if she draws a gate would still need some scrubbing along to hold a decent possie. Kali I have been with for a while, lovely improvement curve, straightforward and tough. Not wanting the 1600 as much as the competition is the concern. Yesterday favouritism changed again, Kali clipped in to 3.00 from 4.00 overtaking Travelling Light who stayed on 3.40. Seemed to me that the day boosted Travelling Light's collateral form a lot more after Harlech's excellent run in the 2000 Guineas so that was an unexpected move. Karalino vs Kali rematch is a nice subplot, Karalino had a little traffic to overcome at Ashburton, not sure it would it have been a different outcome though. 6th up now I am suspicious Karalino has peaked early. Aretha has been friendless and going into a guineas off a poor run with no excuses is not a winning recipe as far as I can remember. If she remains 20s+ going into the race that is extremely tempting. Loire with excuses last time can go very close, should be a lot closer to Bavellas price and can sit handier than recent times with a better gate. Riva Capri will probably blow her chances pulling, hard core upset material all the same simply because she can pull a last sectional with the best of these (was running all over the back of horses up the straight in the Gold Trail) and once in a while everything falls into place. If she were mine an early bid for glory would be the go, she's not going to settle just go for it. Bella Mente should race handy and while not being a flashy type will keep everyone honest - her form around Harlech and Run To Perfection is solid, just not sure about the extra 200 being in her favour. Happy to wait on the weather and draw and final field and hear some news on the disappointing last time out runs. Definitely looking to add Loire at some stage. Travelling Light doesn't need a gate so I'll add her if she draws badly. I suspect a money train if she draws well. Thoughts?

Not quite your 3 lengths despite the race caller's enthusiam! An Opie-esque move to get out at the top of the straight. He's electric.

What a huge run. NZ looking good for the Cox plate 2020. On the ride, there was a chance to push up at the risk of being trapped wide. It wasn't a great ride but also a victim of good rides ahead which stretched the field the last 1400 very efficiently giving just a little too much to do from the back.

At first glance was impressed there were heaps of stewards out on track quick to flag down the runners. On reflection was only because the start was at the 2100 in the home straight. As for the siren, well if you only check it on raceday what do you expect. Fine the stewards $2500 and a 5 meeting suspension.

Her preparation this year has been impeccable, timed to the minute for each step up in class without overreaching for the lesser goals.

Unfortunately I'm pretty much with the market this year. Constantinople and Mer De Glace the two who can make their own luck to win. Since thats a boring prediction I'll spice it up by adding that Finche will hit the lead and go down in the last 100 to those two with Southern France, Latrobe, Mirage Dancer and Raymond Tusk also closing late.

Hesi you are too smart to be listening to guff from jockeys! On A Twinkling had put up good performances on tracks rated 7, 8 and 3. Now, whether he is good enough to win or not, or in form or not, thats another question but the ground issue can be ruled out for sure. Good comment from JustPlodded also, without doubt some trainers are feckers and some are helpful feckers, could be plenty of advantage in knowing who wears which costume.

Wow it seems a high rate of attrition this year for the final 10 days or so. Good to see Vow and Declare will make it after all (since I have him in the comp) but terrible breeding for the 2 miles. Raymond Tusk is just a wonderful name for a horse. Have a blast Mardi, make the bookies' bags lighter and feet heavier.

Good job ferretting there Max we found the same one. I thought he might have found a bit more when pushed out, maybe that will come or maybe he'll be a pure grinder.

As long as they let him come back to defend his third cox plate its all good.

All over rover in terms of NZ opponents, hope he stays up to take on a big race or two this season over the ditch. And I hope their markets agree he hasn't beaten much over here.

I thought Kali was a super run there at the weekend with the guineas goggles on.

A few at longer prices that I thought could improve enough over the next 7 weeks: Aotea Lad, Bella Mente, Callsign Mav, Loire, Folk Dress, Jennifer Eccles, Kali, Scotch, The Fugutive. 4 of those are fillies tho. Kali has heaps of scope and is tough. Its such a pain having to guess / wait and see where they turn up. I took a look at the history to see how dumb it might be to back a filly not knowing what the target is. Fillies running in 2000 guineas: 2009: 3 (1st, 4th, -) 2010: 2 (3rd and 4th) 2011: 1 (2nd) 2012: 1 (2nd) 2013: 0 2014: 2 (4th, -) 2015: 1 (3rd) 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 Of these 10 fillies that ran, 6 went on to a backup run in the 1000 Guineas. Oasis Rose, Twilight Savings and Serena Miss ran well. Katie Lee and Platinum Witness won and only Remember Howe ran poorly.

You missed the $2 Hesi, $1.90 now!

Comparisons to prior winners at this stage: Madison County: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (2nd). r71 Embellish: no 3yo starts. r52 Ugo Foscolo: 1 3yo start at Hastings (1st). r74 Xtravagant: 1 3yo start, flopped in Ruakaha Breeders. r63 Turn Me Loose: 1 3yo start at Hastings (2nd). r65 Atlante: 2 3yo starts in maidens, 3rd and last. r50 Sacred Falls: 1 3yo start at Ruakaha Breeders (1st). r78 Rock 'n' Pop: 1 3yo start - won a Maiden at Riccarton same Monday as today in 2011. r68 Jimmy Choux: 1 3yo start at Wanganui Guineas (2nd). r86 Katie Lee: No 3yo starts. r77 Catalyst: 2 3yo starts, 2 wins, r82. Lots of improvers yet to show their hand. Half of the above showed decent form at 2yo (Jimmy Choux exceptional). Katie Lee I recall they took their time with her after a tough 2yo prep. Something to chew on in the profiles above. Good luck uncovering the likes of Atlante tho!

Faster than the open 1200 and could have gone yet 10 lengths faster. Whoosh.

Weird scoreline that after the Eng Wales results. Im basically confused about all the NH's prospects now.