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Hesi
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Coming up to that time of year when the field starts taking shape for the NZ Derby.

Hard to see how they can beat Dragon Leap, but strange things happen when horses step up to the 2400m

Sorry Rees, can't see Vladivostok staying the distance.

Reggiewood to upset the top 2 or 3

Also coming up to the racing circuit on the East Coast, where dummy Myers took C'est La Guerre to win the Wairoa Cup, then on to win the Derby, albeit assisted by a rain affected track, streeting Prince Kaapstad and Fritzy Boy, 2 others known to like the wet stuff.  Can't see that happening this year

That year(2008), there was a 3 year old called Thumbs Up, that produced the finish of a topliner at Hastings in January to win over a mile, but alas, could not make the Derby field.  He killed them in the last race on Derby day, a 2100m race, to emphasise what could have been.

The horse subsequently went to Shatin and won or was placed in numerous group races

 

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19 hours ago, Globederby19 said:

Maybe not but we think Tibetan is a real chance. Hope you got some today Hesi. 

Well, I think Vladivostock is a realistic hope in the Derby. (Got plenty of him yesterday at $14 FF).

By the way, Rees, what's the go with the pronunciation of Tie-Beet-In? Surely, it's Ti-BET-an?

MM

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5 minutes ago, Maximus said:

Well, I think Vladivostock is a realistic hope in the Derby. (Got plenty of him yesterday at $14 FF).

By the way, Rees, what's the go with the pronunciation of Tie-Beet-In? Surely, it's Ti-BET-an?

MM

Yeah its the second choise. Ti Bet an. Both are bred to stay, Shocking and Tavistock although Im not sure of the dams influence on either.

Two in the Derby is great for them, who knows .

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If I recall correctly, there have been many 3 year olds, that have shown brilliance(turn of foot) at 2000m in lead up races to the Derby, but at the 2400m that brilliance has not been shown.  Of course there have also been many that showed that same brilliance at 2000m then went on and showed it in the Derby, Zonda being the most notable

One in particular I recall, was Buzz Lightyear, brilliant over 2000m in the Derby trial, but failed to stay the 2400m.  Ad Alta was another

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57 minutes ago, Hesi said:

Impressive acceleration at the 200m, but the rating 65 horses were closing at the finish and would have caught him in another 100m, so 2400m will be too far, especially against the top 3 year olds, 7th-9th in the Derby

Fine,but he was ridden to instructions so was asked the question at the 200, and it paid off. In the Derby he might be asked the question at the 200 again given that he gets a reasonable run.. , So will he accelerate or not given the xtra distance. I think he will. Whether that's enough to win is open to conjecture.

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No doubt. But if they stay and don't have a turn of foot, then they likely don't win. At this stage, we have zero idea as to whether Vladivostok can run out a half decent 2400m - which is all that is often required.

I'm not so confident in your view of many 3yos showing brilliance over 2000m not being able to do so in a derby. I'm not sure Buzz Lightyear had a decent turn of foot. He was a leader and that profiles a little differently.

The horses that sprint often around the 350 - 250 to win races is what I like. Vladivostok did that. He just ranged up, but the distance he put on them in that 100m won the race. If you watch the three wins by Makybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup, they are all almost identical. She sprints at the 350 - 200 to set up a margin, then is being caught. to win by the same margin each time. 

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So what was your assessment of Zonda's Derby win, where, if I recall, he sprinted twice in the race.

 

Still can't see how they can beat Dragon Leap, now he has proven he is well over his little hiccup.  Sorry Rees, but he will give your 2 windburn as he goes by

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19 minutes ago, Hesi said:

So what was your assessment of Zonda's Derby win, where, if I recall, he sprinted twice in the race.

 

Still can't see how they can beat Dragon Leap, now he has proven he is well over his little hiccup.  Sorry Rees, but he will give your 2 windburn as he goes by

The more times a horse can sprint/accelerate in a race, the better. It's what made Sunline so good.

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3 hours ago, Blind Squirrel said:

I think the telling factor this year is the almost certain strong pace in the race. You will see the best stayer emerge off the back of that and also the best ride will win the race as they won't betaking prisoners over the final 600m

what makes you so certain there will a strong tempo in the Derby, BS?

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