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Everything posted by Hesi
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As an aside, anyone getting angry when bets lose, should probably give it a miss
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Thanks Mardi, even though I only understood about 75% of what you wrote
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That's why I said statistics can make anyone a liar
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The point Mardi and Curious and Barry are trying to get through, I think, is that there are far more factors that decide the winner of a race than distance covered, which is usually influenced by barrier draw and the ability to therefore get a good position in the running
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Barrier 1 has produced the most winners, with 11, yet barrier 2 has only ever produced 3 winners in 66 running's. If the advantage of drawing so close in was such a benefit, you would expect to see a higher number than that.
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You see LB, that is the point, people like Mardi have all the data and I don't see how anyone can make a case against it
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The data does not support what you are saying. Statistics can make anyone a liar, but just looking at the last 10 runnings, 6 have been won from wide draws, 4 from inside draws. Overall (66) maybe a slight leaning towards inside draws, but there is not much in it. The data suggests barrier draw and winning are in the main, unrelated
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GOLDEN SLIPPER BARRIER STATISTICS – WINNERS FROM THE PAST 20 YEARS Year Horse Barrier Weight 2023 Shinzo 1 56.5kg 2022 Fireburn 1 54.5kg 2021 Stay Inside 3 56.5kg 2020 Farnan 12 56.5kg 2019 Kiamichi 14 54.5kg 2018 Estijaab 14 54.5kg 2017 She Will Reign 11 54.5kg 2016 Capitalist 2 56.5kg 2015 Vancouver 16 56.5kg 2014 Mossfun 11 54.5kg 2013 Overreach 1 54.5kg 2012 Pierro 1 56.5kg 2011 Sepoy 8 56.5kg 2010 Crystal Lily 1 54.5kg 2009 Phelan Ready 16 56.5kg 2008 Sebring 5 56.5kg 2007 Forensics 1 54.5kg 2006 Miss Finland 7 54.5kg 2005 Stratum 6 56.5kg 2004 Dance Hero 2 56.5kg 2003 Polar Success 14 53.5kg IS THERE A BARRIER DRAW BIAS IN THE GOLDEN SLIPPER? Looking at the barrier draws for each winner of the race since its inauguration back in 1957 when Todman won the race, there is no barrier draw bias. Barrier one has seen the most winners with nine two-year-olds jumping from that gate. Barrier 14 shows that there is no bias in the race with six horses jumping from that gate. In the past decade, there have been quite a few horses jumping from double-figure barriers which shows it is more about the horse’s ability rather than the starting barrier. This makes the Golden Slipper an entertaining race every single year. Most Successful Golden Slipper Barriers Barrier Wins 1 11 3 7 8 6 14 6 4 5 10 5 11 5
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I note also that people make these bold statements such as barrier draws being one of the most important factors in assessing potential outcomes, but never support it with any data.
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And I'm sure you, Curious and Barry have much data on the impact of barrier draws on winning races. Probably somewhere readily available is the data on what barrier draw all the past winners of the Golden Slipper have had
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Someone with an astute racing brain, who can make sure the race programming and tracks get reviewed urgently I think NZTR is responsible for setting dates ???
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Sounds like he may have matured a bit?? He was the one that put the skids under the Moroney name in NZ, when he ran the NZ operation for Mike Moroney who was based in Aus, with allegations of all sorts of shenanigans going on at the stable involving drugs of various kinds. I don't think the Moroney reputation has ever recovered from that, with the stable no longer being a force to be reckoned with in NZ, even with Pam Gerard in place running the show since 15/16
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I was reading that Chad Ormsby, won a bull riding competition on the morning of the race
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It was still a race for the 3rd best staying filly in NZ, which undermines the whole concept of G1 racing. Make the Oaks 1 million and the Derby 2 mil, and get rid of this Karaka 1.5 mil bs race that isn't open to all horses anyway
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Thanks also, you have been very kind and helpful, considering your former baby is a cot case You would also have to say another Trentham iconic race, the Oaks, rooted by the big smoke
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But you would expect a handsome payout in lieu of.
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So, if he was 'pushed', can someone explain how it might have worked. Was it a vote of no confidence, did they call him to a meeting, did the chair just ring him up, or did they just get in touch with Peters and say this guy is not delivering and Peters gave him a call lol
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Cameron George | Chairman In May 2019, Cameron George became a member of the Board after being appointed by the NZTR Members' Council. With a wealth of experience in Racing & Sports Administration, Cameron had previously held positions as NZTR's Chief Stipendiary Steward and as the Chief Executive of the Auckland Racing Club. Currently, he serves as the Chief Executive of the One NZ Warriors.
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To turn it back to racing. The old Racing Board a la, Bayliss, Allen and Brown was a lot worse than NZTR with regards to excess spending, no accountability and poor processes. You can also throw in what we are seeing with the Govt departments, with the cultural hoochy coochy. The RB under Bayliss even had a head of Culture. The thing with these slow moving bureaucracies, they go to great lengths to resist any change or attempt to make them more efficient and productive. We saw with the RB, the only way in the end, was revolution, with Entain taking over
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I went on a weeklong plastics technology course at Uxbridge University in West London quite a few years ago and got friendly with 2 cockney guys. Funniest people I ever met, a few pints of IPA and a curry each night, what a great time
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Similar also to all Govt departments - Excess spending, little to no accountability, poor processes.
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I guess the reason why you were saying the word is that he was pushed
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Yes the whole issue of reporting, follow up and accountability has been not up to scratch. I don't think we will ever know the truth behind the Ellerslie problems. I guess this is why Cameron George 'left', and Bruce Sharrock must be teetering. With all the money pouring in from Entain, this is now without doubt the number one issue in NZ racing, that as many have so eloquently put, affecting punter confidence. Not sure what the hell went on at Trentham, but you don't run 1.08.54 over 1200m on a S7 track I guess also, resolution one way or the other about Avondale, or at least some clarification of what is happening
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Grass grubs have long been a major problem in NZ pasture, so a lot of research on their control and eradication will have been done, so yes pretty lax.